FORTRESS FIGHT: MDB @ $337.05

BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $379.73 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | 2026-06-30 21:52 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MDB @ $337.05 UNDERWATER $25.85 (7.1% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $379.73 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $270 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $190.151/sh)

SP: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $98.267/sh)

HP: $150 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.061/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$28,290	(ND $92.90 + SW $190) x 100
Normal income ref	$2,929/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$109/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-4,699	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,465/mo

HEDGE COVER
$109/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$2,929/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $9,290

ML VELOCITY
9.7 mo to earn back $28,290

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $380 still earns $829/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 76 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 45 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $375.91 (+12%) · daily UBB $389.99 · 1-wk expected move ±$31 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $360 / 10d. This is the safest strike (survival 72%, breach 28%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,465/mo); it brings $1,545/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $340/10d for $3,195/mo, but breach risk rises to 47% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $420/17d (93% survival, $184/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $1,458 (16% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $363, recoverable in 0.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-4,817 and cuts bleed by $109/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 1 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again).

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $360 (primary) — 72% survival, breach 28%, $1,545/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $375 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 77% (breach 28% → 23%) for $566/mo less (37% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MDB are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 1×$360, 6.8% OTM, 72% surv

Sell 1 × $360 6.8% OTM over spot $337.05 10 Jul 2026 (10d, $6.33 mid)

= $515 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,545/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $360)

72%

Breach risk

28%

POP (stays ≤ $366.32)

77%

EV / mo

+$61

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$830

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$383 @ 73% POP

67% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $19.02/sh now → $13.45 mid-life (likely $14.72–$21.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,295 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $367 (overshoots $7.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$383	24 Jul 2026	19d left	-$3.90/sh	-$390 cycle +$125 [-$885…-$437] · 5% credit	73% surv 67%
budget: banked $515 debit $390 (76% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,507/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Max even-money escape in the band	~$368	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$1.60/sh	+$160 cycle +$675 [-$216…+$152] · 40% credit	67% surv 56%
reaches SS ✓
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$363	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$3.73/sh	+$373 cycle +$888 [+$30…+$383] · 80% credit	65% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$360	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.81/sh	+$81 cycle +$596 [-$233…+$78] · 33% credit	64% surv 50%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$360	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.02/sh	+$102 cycle +$617 [-$208…+$101] · 38% credit	63% surv 50%

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,545/mo
vs 50% target ($1,465/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($2,929/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,436/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $360 is $20 below CC-SS $380: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,458
… as % of IC ($9,290)	15.7%
… as % of ML ($28,290)	5.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-4,817

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $366.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $389.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $356-366.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $366.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$360.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$515	$-1,657	+$3,042	+$239
+2.5%	$369.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-385	$-1,566	+$3,133	-$11
+5%	$378.00 (1.1σ)	$-1,285	$-1,475	+$3,224	-$11

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $379.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,699

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,699

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $360): -$1,458

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,458 (+$3,241 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,447 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11, the opportunity cost of earning $1,545/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 1×$375, 11.3% OTM, 77% surv

Sell 1 × $375 11.3% OTM over spot $337.05 17 Jul 2026 (17d, $7.57 mid)

= $555 credit for the 17d cycle → $979/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $375)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $382.57)

81%

EV / mo

+$149

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,192

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$383 @ 67% POP

57% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $24.69/sh now → $17.47 mid-life (likely $17.12–$25.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 17, at $383 (overshoots $7.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$383	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$3.99/sh	-$399 cycle +$156 [-$727…-$331] · 8% credit	67% surv 57%
budget: banked $555 debit $399 (72% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$156 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,528/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$375	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.52/sh	-$52 cycle +$503 [-$327…+$55] · 29% credit	64% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$373	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.43/sh	+$43 cycle +$598 [-$219…+$160] · 39% credit	63% surv 48%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$979/mo
vs 50% target ($1,465/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($2,929/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$871/mo

Downside budget

✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $380: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($9,290)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($28,290)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-4,902

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.39/sh (~25% of the $5.55 collected) or spot ≥ $382.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $389.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 9d left	3-8d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $371.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $371-382.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $382.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$375.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$555	$34	+$4,733	+$1,529
+2.5%	$384.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-382	$129	+$4,828	+$1,529
+5%	$393.75 (1.2σ)	$-1,320	$224	+$4,923	+$1,529

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $379.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,699

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,699

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $375): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$4,699 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,447 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,447, the opportunity cost of earning $979/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 1×$340, 0.9% OTM, 53% surv

Sell 1 × $340 0.9% OTM over spot $337.05 10 Jul 2026 (10d, $13.73 mid)

= $1,065 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,195/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $340)

53%

Breach risk

47%

POP (stays ≤ $353.73)

67%

EV / mo

$-191

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

47%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$205

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$388 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $17.96/sh now → $12.70 mid-life (likely $17.62–$24.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,257 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $348 (overshoots $7.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$388	17 Jul 2026	12d left	-$10.29/sh	-$1,029 cycle +$36 [-$1,894…-$1,396]	87% surv 86%
budget: banked $1,065 debit $1,029 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$36 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $603/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Max even-money escape in the band	~$353	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$2 cycle +$1,067 [-$567…-$274] · 7% credit	69% surv 60%
SS $363 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$343	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$4.12/sh	+$412 cycle +$1,477 [-$65…+$162] · 65% credit	65% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$343	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.26/sh	+$26 cycle +$1,091 [-$429…-$199] · 8% credit	65% surv 53%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$340	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.48/sh	+$148 cycle +$1,213 [-$282…-$72] · 16% credit	63% surv 50%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,195/mo
vs 50% target ($1,465/mo)	+118%
vs normal income ($2,929/mo)	109% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,086/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $340 is $40 below CC-SS $380: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,908
… as % of IC ($9,290)	31.3%
… as % of ML ($28,290)	10.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-5,007

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.66/sh (~25% of the $10.65 collected) or spot ≥ $353.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $389.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $336.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $337-353.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $353.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$340.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,065	$-3,309	+$1,390	+$789
+2.5%	$348.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$215	$-3,223	+$1,476	-$61
+5%	$357.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-635	$-3,138	+$1,561	-$911
SS (= V-bounce)	$362.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,225	$-3,078	+$1,621	-$1,461

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $379.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,699

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,699

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $340): -$2,908

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,908 (+$1,791 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,447 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,461, the opportunity cost of earning $3,195/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 1×$420, 24.6% OTM, 93% surv

Sell 1 × $420 24.6% OTM over spot $337.05 17 Jul 2026 (17d, $1.77 mid)

= $104 credit for the 17d cycle → $184/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $420)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $421.76)

93%

EV / mo

+$35

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,853

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$420 @ 64% POP

50% survival

Buyback gross: $27.66/sh now → $19.57 mid-life (likely $15.17–$25.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 245 simulated challenges: the $420 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 17, at $429 (overshoots $8.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$420	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$2.26/sh	-$226 cycle -$122 [-$365…+$178] · 40% credit	64% surv 50%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$184/mo
vs 50% target ($1,465/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($2,929/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$75/mo

Downside budget

✓ $420 is at/above CC-SS $380: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($9,290)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($28,290)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-4,772

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.04 collected) or spot ≥ $421.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $420)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $389.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 9d left	3-8d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $415.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $416-421.76	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $421.76	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$420.00 (1.7σ)	$104	$4,538	+$9,237	+$5,578
+2.5%	$430.50 (1.9σ)	$-946	$4,644	+$9,343	+$5,578
+5%	$441.00 (2.2σ)	$-1,996	$4,750	+$9,449	+$5,578

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $379.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,699

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,699

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $420): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$4,699 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,447 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,447, the opportunity cost of earning $184/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.101 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,699 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,447

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$360	10d	10 Jul 2026	$5.15	1/1	$1,545	$1,436	72%	77%	+$61	-$1,458	15.7%	$-1,458 (vs do-nothing $-11)
$355	10d	10 Jul 2026	$5.45	1/1	$1,635	$1,526	68%	74%	$-207	-$1,928	20.8%	$-1,928 (vs do-nothing $-481)
$360	17d	17 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/1	$1,544	$1,435	68%	75%	+$147	-$1,098	11.8%	$-1,098 (vs do-nothing +$349)
$352	10d	10 Jul 2026	$5.75	1/1	$1,725	$1,616	65%	73%	$-323	-$2,148	23.1%	$-2,148 (vs do-nothing $-701)
$355	17d	17 Jul 2026	$9.45	1/1	$1,668	$1,559	64%	73%	+$19	-$1,528	16.4%	$-1,528 (vs do-nothing $-81)
$350	10d	10 Jul 2026	$6.60	1/1	$1,980	$1,871	63%	72%	$-293	-$2,313	24.9%	$-2,313 (vs do-nothing $-866)
$355	24d	24 Jul 2026	$12.90	1/1	$1,612	$1,504	62%	72%	+$134	-$1,183	12.7%	$-1,183 (vs do-nothing +$264)
$348	10d	10 Jul 2026	$7.25	1/1	$2,175	$2,066	61%	70%	$-343	-$2,498	26.9%	$-2,498 (vs do-nothing $-1,051)
$350	17d	17 Jul 2026	$11.60	1/1	$2,047	$1,938	60%	70%	+$111	-$1,813	19.5%	$-1,813 (vs do-nothing $-366)
$350	24d	24 Jul 2026	$14.80	1/1	$1,850	$1,741	59%	70%	+$155	-$1,493	16.1%	$-1,493 (vs do-nothing $-46)
$345	10d	10 Jul 2026	$7.70	1/1	$2,310	$2,201	58%	69%	$-474	-$2,703	29.1%	$-2,703 (vs do-nothing $-1,256)
$345	17d	17 Jul 2026	$14.90	1/1	$2,629	$2,521	56%	69%	+$367	-$1,983	21.3%	$-1,983 (vs do-nothing $-536)
$342	10d	10 Jul 2026	$8.80	1/1	$2,640	$2,531	56%	68%	$-433	-$2,843	30.6%	$-2,843 (vs do-nothing $-1,396)

Show 12 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$345	24d	24 Jul 2026	$16.85	1/1	$2,106	$1,998	56%	68%	+$171	-$1,788	19.2%	$-1,788 (vs do-nothing $-341)
$342	17d	17 Jul 2026	$15.25	1/1	$2,691	$2,582	54%	68%	+$250	-$2,198	23.7%	$-2,198 (vs do-nothing $-751)
$340	10d	10 Jul 2026	$10.65	1/1	$3,195	$3,086	53%	67%	$-191	-$2,908	31.3%	$-2,908 (vs do-nothing $-1,461)
$340	17d	17 Jul 2026	$15.60	1/1	$2,753	$2,644	52%	66%	+$123	-$2,413	26.0%	$-2,413 (vs do-nothing $-966)
$340	24d	24 Jul 2026	$19.00	1/1	$2,375	$2,266	52%	67%	+$173	-$2,073	22.3%	$-2,073 (vs do-nothing $-626)
$338	10d	10 Jul 2026	$11.65	1/1	$3,495	$3,386	50%	65%	$-227	-$3,058	32.9%	$-3,058 (vs do-nothing $-1,611)
$338	17d	17 Jul 2026	$16.60	1/1	$2,929	$2,821	50%	66%	+$99	-$2,563	27.6%	$-2,563 (vs do-nothing $-1,116)
$335	24d	24 Jul 2026	$21.30	1/1	$2,662	$2,554	49%	65%	+$167	-$2,343	25.2%	$-2,343 (vs do-nothing $-896)
$335	17d	17 Jul 2026	$17.80	1/1	$3,141	$3,032	48%	65%	+$100	-$2,693	29.0%	$-2,693 (vs do-nothing $-1,246)
$335	10d	10 Jul 2026	$13.00	1/1	$3,900	$3,791	48%	64%	$-182	-$3,173	34.2%	$-3,173 (vs do-nothing $-1,726)
$332	17d	17 Jul 2026	$18.95	1/1	$3,344	$3,235	46%	64%	+$81	-$2,828	30.4%	$-2,828 (vs do-nothing $-1,381)
$332	10d	10 Jul 2026	$14.10	1/1	$4,230	$4,121	45%	63%	$-238	-$3,313	35.7%	$-3,313 (vs do-nothing $-1,866)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-30 21:52