FORTRESS FIGHT: MDB @ $340.98

BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $375.82 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MDB @ $340.98 UNDERWATER $21.92 (6.0% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $375.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $270 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $190.151/sh)

SP: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $98.267/sh)

HP: $150 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.061/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$28,290	(ND $92.90 + SW $190) x 100
Normal income ref	$3,744/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$222/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,713	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,872/mo

HEDGE COVER
$222/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,744/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.5 mo to earn back $9,290

ML VELOCITY
7.6 mo to earn back $28,290

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.82 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $1,659/mo (44% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-141

Hole (after banked)

$3,853

was $3,713 · -4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 76 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 54 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $380.22 (+12%) · daily UBB $376.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$33 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.82 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 1 × $380 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

79%

Touch odds

44%

Per cycle

$785

Income / mo

$1,472

🎯 Recommended · sell 1 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$420

Income / mo

$1,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $19.53/sh now → $13.82 mid-life (likely $13.62–$21.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 797 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $386 (overshoots $8.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$4.28/sh	+$428 cycle +$848 [+$246…+$558] · 96% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$382	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.48/sh	+$248 cycle +$668 [+$40…+$357] · 80% credit	69% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.38/sh	+$38 cycle +$458 [-$217…+$120] · 39% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.38/sh	+$38 cycle +$458 [-$217…+$120] · 39% credit	71% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$394	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.42/sh	-$242 cycle +$178 [-$562…-$201] · 12% credit	74% surv 66%
budget: banked $420 debit $242 (58% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$178 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,849/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $390 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$123

Income / mo

$410

Buyback gross: $20.18/sh now → $14.27 mid-life (likely $12.14–$20.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 446 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $398 (overshoots $8.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$4.01/sh	+$401 cycle +$524 [+$294…+$640] · 97% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$397	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.02/sh	+$102 cycle +$225 [-$58…+$311] · 66% credit	70% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$399	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.10/sh	+$10 cycle +$133 [-$168…+$197] · 47% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$399	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.10/sh	+$10 cycle +$133 [-$168…+$197] · 47% credit	71% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.89/sh	-$89 cycle +$34 [-$291…+$84] · 33% credit	72% surv 62%
budget: banked $123 debit $89 (72% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,345/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (45 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.088 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,791 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-69

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$372.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.25	1/1	$1,875	$1,653	96%	97%	+$1,669	-$207	2.2%	$-129 (vs do-nothing $-60)
$370	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.51	1/1	$2,265	$2,043	94%	95%	+$1,960	-$431	4.6%	$-353 (vs do-nothing $-284)
$367.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.75	1/1	$2,625	$2,403	93%	94%	+$2,181	-$657	7.1%	$-579 (vs do-nothing $-510)
$365	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.09	1/1	$3,135	$2,913	91%	93%	+$2,498	-$873	9.4%	$-795 (vs do-nothing $-726)
$362.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.49	1/1	$3,735	$3,513	88%	91%	+$2,836	-$1,083	11.7%	$-1,005 (vs do-nothing $-936)
$360	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.90	1/1	$4,350	$4,128	86%	89%	+$3,102	-$1,292	13.9%	$-1,214 (vs do-nothing $-1,145)
$357.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$3.10	1/1	$4,650	$4,428	82%	87%	+$2,945	-$1,522	16.4%	$-1,444 (vs do-nothing $-1,375)
$355	2d	17 Jul 2026	$3.70	1/1	$5,550	$5,328	79%	85%	+$3,258	-$1,712	18.4%	$-1,634 (vs do-nothing $-1,565)
$370	9d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	1/1	$1,917	$1,695	79%	83%	+$730	-$7	0.1%	$71 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$367.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	1/1	$2,033	$1,812	77%	81%	+$688	-$222	2.4%	$-144 (vs do-nothing $-75)
$365	9d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	1/1	$2,183	$1,962	75%	80%	+$663	-$427	4.6%	$-349 (vs do-nothing $-280)
$352.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$4.60	1/1	$6,900	$6,678	75%	83%	+$3,866	-$1,872	20.2%	$-1,794 (vs do-nothing $-1,725)
$362.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$7.60	1/1	$2,533	$2,312	73%	79%	+$845	-$572	6.2%	$-494 (vs do-nothing $-425)

Show 32 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$367.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$10.65	1/1	$1,997	$1,775	72%	79%	+$577	-$0	0.0%	$311 (vs do-nothing +$380)
$360	9d	24 Jul 2026	$8.30	1/1	$2,767	$2,545	71%	78%	+$869	-$752	8.1%	$-674 (vs do-nothing $-605)
$365	16d	31 Jul 2026	$11.10	1/1	$2,081	$1,860	70%	78%	+$539	-$0	0.0%	$106 (vs do-nothing +$175)
$350	2d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/1	$8,400	$8,178	70%	80%	+$4,447	-$2,022	21.8%	$-1,944 (vs do-nothing $-1,875)
$362.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$11.85	1/1	$2,222	$2,000	69%	77%	+$548	-$147	1.6%	$-69 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$357.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$8.90	1/1	$2,967	$2,745	69%	76%	+$838	-$942	10.1%	$-864 (vs do-nothing $-795)
$360	16d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	1/1	$1,969	$1,747	67%	75%	+$155	-$532	5.7%	$-454 (vs do-nothing $-385)
$355	9d	24 Jul 2026	$9.90	1/1	$3,300	$3,078	66%	75%	+$918	-$1,092	11.8%	$-1,014 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$357.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$13.80	1/1	$2,588	$2,366	65%	75%	+$624	-$452	4.9%	$-374 (vs do-nothing $-305)
$347.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/1	$9,000	$8,778	65%	77%	+$3,928	-$2,232	24.0%	$-2,154 (vs do-nothing $-2,085)
$352.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$10.55	1/1	$3,517	$3,295	64%	74%	+$858	-$1,277	13.7%	$-1,199 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$355	16d	31 Jul 2026	$14.85	1/1	$2,784	$2,563	64%	74%	+$663	-$597	6.4%	$-519 (vs do-nothing $-450)
$352.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$15.65	1/1	$2,934	$2,713	62%	73%	+$644	-$767	8.3%	$-689 (vs do-nothing $-620)
$350	9d	24 Jul 2026	$11.30	1/1	$3,767	$3,545	61%	72%	+$808	-$1,452	15.6%	$-1,374 (vs do-nothing $-1,305)
$345	2d	17 Jul 2026	$7.15	1/1	$10,725	$10,503	60%	75%	+$4,316	-$2,367	25.5%	$-2,289 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$350	16d	31 Jul 2026	$16.65	1/1	$3,122	$2,900	60%	72%	+$653	-$917	9.9%	$-839 (vs do-nothing $-770)
$347.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$12.40	1/1	$4,133	$3,912	59%	71%	+$848	-$1,592	17.1%	$-1,514 (vs do-nothing $-1,445)
$347.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$17.55	1/1	$3,291	$3,069	58%	71%	+$634	-$1,077	11.6%	$-999 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$345	9d	24 Jul 2026	$14.00	1/1	$4,667	$4,445	56%	71%	+$1,030	-$1,682	18.1%	$-1,604 (vs do-nothing $-1,535)
$345	16d	31 Jul 2026	$18.75	1/1	$3,516	$3,294	56%	70%	+$660	-$1,207	13.0%	$-1,129 (vs do-nothing $-1,060)
$342.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$8.10	1/1	$12,150	$11,928	54%	71%	+$3,320	-$2,522	27.1%	$-2,444 (vs do-nothing $-2,375)
$342.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$19.85	1/1	$3,722	$3,500	54%	69%	+$656	-$1,347	14.5%	$-1,269 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$342.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$14.65	1/1	$4,883	$4,662	54%	69%	+$869	-$1,867	20.1%	$-1,789 (vs do-nothing $-1,720)
$340	16d	31 Jul 2026	$20.95	1/1	$3,928	$3,707	52%	69%	+$642	-$1,487	16.0%	$-1,409 (vs do-nothing $-1,340)
$340	9d	24 Jul 2026	$15.65	1/1	$5,217	$4,995	51%	68%	+$798	-$2,017	21.7%	$-1,939 (vs do-nothing $-1,870)
$337.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$22.35	1/1	$4,191	$3,969	50%	68%	+$670	-$1,597	17.2%	$-1,519 (vs do-nothing $-1,450)
$340	2d	17 Jul 2026	$9.40	1/1	$14,100	$13,878	49%	69%	+$3,465	-$2,642	28.4%	$-2,564 (vs do-nothing $-2,495)
$337.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$17.10	1/1	$5,700	$5,478	49%	66%	+$850	-$2,122	22.8%	$-2,044 (vs do-nothing $-1,975)
$335	16d	31 Jul 2026	$23.10	1/1	$4,331	$4,110	48%	67%	+$568	-$1,772	19.1%	$-1,694 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$335	9d	24 Jul 2026	$18.25	1/1	$6,083	$5,862	46%	66%	+$776	-$2,257	24.3%	$-2,179 (vs do-nothing $-2,110)
$337.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$10.45	1/1	$15,675	$15,453	44%	67%	+$3,001	-$2,787	30.0%	$-2,709 (vs do-nothing $-2,640)
$335	2d	17 Jul 2026	$11.20	1/1	$16,800	$16,578	39%	64%	+$1,855	-$2,962	31.9%	$-2,884 (vs do-nothing $-2,815)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-15 03:39