FORTRESS FIGHT: MDB @ $351.99

BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $381.54 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MDB @ $351.99 UNDERWATER $10.91 (3.0% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $381.54 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $270 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $190.151/sh)

SP: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $98.267/sh)

HP: $150 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.061/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$28,290	(ND $92.90 + SW $190) x 100
Normal income ref	$3,272/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$90/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,146	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,636/mo

HEDGE COVER
$90/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,272/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.8 mo to earn back $9,290

ML VELOCITY
8.6 mo to earn back $28,290

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $381.54 (probe: $380C 16d) still earns $1,472/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-141

Hole (after banked)

$3,287

was $3,146 · -4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 83 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 55 · %B 67 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $380.78 (+8%) · daily UBB $377.61 · 1-wk expected move ±$40 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $381.54 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 1 × $385 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$310

Income / mo

$1,033

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $21.17/sh now → $14.98 mid-life (likely $15.88–$23.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,091 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $395 (overshoots $9.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.47/sh	+$47 cycle +$357 [-$242…+$122] · 36% credit	65% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$386	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.31/sh	+$31 cycle +$341 [-$261…+$102] · 34% credit	65% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.31/sh	+$31 cycle +$341 [-$261…+$102] · 34% credit	65% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.78/sh	-$278 cycle +$32 [-$720…-$289] · 10% credit	67% surv 59%
budget: banked $310 debit $278 (90% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,049/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $405 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $405)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$100

Income / mo

$333

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$403	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$56 cycle +$156 [-$149…+$346] · 57% credit	64% surv 51%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$405	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.07/sh	-$7 cycle +$93 [-$222…+$273] · 49% credit	65% surv 52%

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $400 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $400)

97%

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income / mo

$75

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$400	24 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.18/sh	+$218 cycle +$223	62% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$403	24 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.02/sh	+$102 cycle +$107	64% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$423	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$0.28/sh	+$28 cycle +$33	72% surv 67%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (37 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.087 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,213 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-508

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$372.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.58	1/1	$2,370	$2,280	83%	85%	+$341	-$746	8.0%	$-680 (vs do-nothing $-172)
$370	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.00	1/1	$3,000	$2,910	80%	83%	+$435	-$954	10.3%	$-888 (vs do-nothing $-380)
$367.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.34	1/1	$3,510	$3,420	77%	82%	+$287	-$1,170	12.6%	$-1,104 (vs do-nothing $-596)
$375	9d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	1/1	$1,650	$1,560	74%	80%	+$44	-$159	1.7%	$-93 (vs do-nothing +$415)
$365	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.41	1/1	$3,615	$3,525	73%	79%	$-407	-$1,413	15.2%	$-1,347 (vs do-nothing $-839)
$372.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	1/1	$1,883	$1,794	72%	79%	+$84	-$339	3.6%	$-273 (vs do-nothing +$235)
$370	9d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	1/1	$2,133	$2,044	70%	77%	+$120	-$514	5.5%	$-448 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$362.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	1/1	$4,500	$4,410	70%	77%	$-480	-$1,604	17.3%	$-1,538 (vs do-nothing $-1,030)
$367.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$7.60	1/1	$2,533	$2,444	68%	76%	+$285	-$644	6.9%	$-578 (vs do-nothing $-70)
$375	16d	31 Jul 2026	$9.80	1/1	$1,838	$1,748	67%	74%	$-371	-$0	0.0%	$392 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$360	2d	17 Jul 2026	$3.45	1/1	$5,175	$5,085	65%	74%	$-937	-$1,809	19.5%	$-1,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,235)
$365	9d	24 Jul 2026	$7.95	1/1	$2,650	$2,560	65%	74%	+$143	-$859	9.2%	$-793 (vs do-nothing $-285)
$370	16d	31 Jul 2026	$11.95	1/1	$2,241	$2,151	65%	73%	$-271	-$0	0.0%	$107 (vs do-nothing +$615)

Show 24 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$367.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$11.75	1/1	$2,203	$2,114	63%	71%	$-472	-$229	2.5%	$-163 (vs do-nothing +$345)
$362.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$8.40	1/1	$2,800	$2,710	63%	73%	+$11	-$1,064	11.5%	$-998 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$365	16d	31 Jul 2026	$12.50	1/1	$2,344	$2,254	62%	70%	$-503	-$404	4.3%	$-338 (vs do-nothing +$170)
$357.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$3.25	1/1	$4,875	$4,785	61%	72%	$-2,557	-$2,079	22.4%	$-2,013 (vs do-nothing $-1,505)
$360	9d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	1/1	$3,117	$3,027	60%	72%	+$20	-$1,219	13.1%	$-1,153 (vs do-nothing $-645)
$362.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$13.30	1/1	$2,494	$2,404	60%	70%	$-532	-$574	6.2%	$-508 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$360	16d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	1/1	$2,644	$2,554	59%	69%	$-571	-$744	8.0%	$-678 (vs do-nothing $-170)
$357.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$10.05	1/1	$3,350	$3,260	58%	70%	$-80	-$1,399	15.1%	$-1,333 (vs do-nothing $-825)
$357.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$15.20	1/1	$2,850	$2,760	57%	68%	$-561	-$884	9.5%	$-818 (vs do-nothing $-310)
$355	2d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	1/1	$6,225	$6,135	57%	69%	$-2,725	-$2,239	24.1%	$-2,173 (vs do-nothing $-1,665)
$355	16d	31 Jul 2026	$16.35	1/1	$3,066	$2,976	55%	67%	$-551	-$1,019	11.0%	$-953 (vs do-nothing $-445)
$355	9d	24 Jul 2026	$10.90	1/1	$3,633	$3,544	55%	67%	$-1,072	-$1,564	16.8%	$-1,498 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$352.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$17.45	1/1	$3,272	$3,182	53%	68%	+$69	-$1,159	12.5%	$-1,093 (vs do-nothing $-585)
$352.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$11.85	1/1	$3,950	$3,860	53%	66%	$-1,138	-$1,719	18.5%	$-1,653 (vs do-nothing $-1,145)
$352.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$5.30	1/1	$7,950	$7,860	52%	67%	$-2,723	-$2,374	25.6%	$-2,308 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$350	16d	31 Jul 2026	$18.20	1/1	$3,412	$3,323	51%	67%	$-16	-$1,334	14.4%	$-1,268 (vs do-nothing $-760)
$350	9d	24 Jul 2026	$12.85	1/1	$4,283	$4,194	51%	64%	$-1,210	-$1,869	20.1%	$-1,803 (vs do-nothing $-1,295)
$347.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$19.35	1/1	$3,628	$3,539	49%	67%	$-37	-$1,469	15.8%	$-1,403 (vs do-nothing $-895)
$345	16d	31 Jul 2026	$20.30	1/1	$3,806	$3,717	49%	64%	$-722	-$1,624	17.5%	$-1,558 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$347.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$14.75	1/1	$4,917	$4,827	49%	64%	$-1,002	-$1,929	20.8%	$-1,863 (vs do-nothing $-1,355)
$350	2d	17 Jul 2026	$6.60	1/1	$9,900	$9,810	48%	64%	$-2,702	-$2,494	26.8%	$-2,428 (vs do-nothing $-1,920)
$345	9d	24 Jul 2026	$15.65	1/1	$5,217	$5,127	46%	63%	$-1,150	-$2,089	22.5%	$-2,023 (vs do-nothing $-1,515)
$347.50	2d	17 Jul 2026	$7.05	1/1	$10,575	$10,485	43%	61%	$-4,161	-$2,699	29.1%	$-2,633 (vs do-nothing $-2,125)
$345	2d	17 Jul 2026	$8.55	1/1	$12,825	$12,735	39%	60%	$-4,243	-$2,799	30.1%	$-2,733 (vs do-nothing $-2,225)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-15 21:39