MDB @ $334.32 UNDERWATER $28.58 (7.9% below BE SS)
1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $383.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $270 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $190.151/sh)
SP: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $98.267/sh)
HP: $150 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.061/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $28,290 | (ND $92.90 + SW $190) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $3,580/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $81/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,227 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,790/mo
HEDGE COVER
$81/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,580/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $9,290
ML VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $28,290
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $383.24 (probe: $385C 15d) still earns $770/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-141
Hole (after banked)
$5,368
was $5,227 · -3% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 73 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 46 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $379.16 (+13%) · daily UBB $375.23 · 1-wk expected move ±$31 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $383.24 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 1 × $385 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $385)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $25.26/sh now → $17.87 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $395 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $395)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $25.91/sh now → $18.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $417.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $417.50)
98%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.35/sh now → $14.39 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$418 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$2.52/sh | +$252 cycle +$253 | 67% surv 52% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$423 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.69/sh | +$69 cycle +$70 | 70% surv 57% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$423 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.69/sh | +$69 cycle +$70 | 70% surv 57% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.088 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,322 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,164
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $360 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 1/1 | $2,062 | $1,982 | 78% | 83% | +$873 | -$1,774 | 19.1% | $-1,679 (vs do-nothing $-515) |
| $357.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 1/1 | $2,288 | $2,207 | 76% | 82% | +$922 | -$1,964 | 21.1% | $-1,869 (vs do-nothing $-705) |
| $355 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 1/1 | $2,512 | $2,432 | 74% | 80% | +$948 | -$2,154 | 23.2% | $-2,059 (vs do-nothing $-895) |
| $352.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 1/1 | $2,662 | $2,582 | 72% | 79% | +$875 | -$2,364 | 25.4% | $-2,269 (vs do-nothing $-1,105) |
| $350 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 1/1 | $2,906 | $2,826 | 69% | 77% | +$870 | -$2,549 | 27.4% | $-2,454 (vs do-nothing $-1,290) |
| $355 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 1/1 | $2,220 | $2,139 | 69% | 77% | +$655 | -$1,714 | 18.4% | $-1,619 (vs do-nothing $-455) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.95 | 1/1 | $2,390 | $2,309 | 67% | 76% | +$678 | -$1,879 | 20.2% | $-1,784 (vs do-nothing $-620) |
| $347.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 1/1 | $3,244 | $3,163 | 67% | 76% | +$930 | -$2,709 | 29.2% | $-2,614 (vs do-nothing $-1,450) |
| $350 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.80 | 1/1 | $2,560 | $2,479 | 66% | 75% | +$690 | -$2,044 | 22.0% | $-1,949 (vs do-nothing $-785) |
| $345 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 1/1 | $3,675 | $3,594 | 64% | 75% | +$1,054 | -$2,844 | 30.6% | $-2,749 (vs do-nothing $-1,585) |
| $347.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.75 | 1/1 | $2,750 | $2,669 | 64% | 74% | +$711 | -$2,199 | 23.7% | $-2,104 (vs do-nothing $-940) |
| $345 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.65 | 1/1 | $2,930 | $2,849 | 62% | 73% | +$711 | -$2,359 | 25.4% | $-2,264 (vs do-nothing $-1,100) |
| $342.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 1/1 | $3,975 | $3,894 | 61% | 73% | +$1,016 | -$3,014 | 32.4% | $-2,919 (vs do-nothing $-1,755) |
Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $342.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.55 | 1/1 | $2,910 | $2,829 | 60% | 72% | +$500 | -$2,619 | 28.2% | $-2,524 (vs do-nothing $-1,360) |
| $340 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 1/1 | $4,425 | $4,344 | 59% | 72% | +$1,096 | -$3,144 | 33.8% | $-3,049 (vs do-nothing $-1,885) |
| $340 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.80 | 1/1 | $3,360 | $3,279 | 58% | 71% | +$746 | -$2,644 | 28.5% | $-2,549 (vs do-nothing $-1,385) |
| $337.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.75 | 1/1 | $4,781 | $4,701 | 56% | 70% | +$1,049 | -$3,299 | 35.5% | $-3,204 (vs do-nothing $-2,040) |
| $337.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.30 | 1/1 | $3,260 | $3,179 | 55% | 70% | +$430 | -$2,944 | 31.7% | $-2,849 (vs do-nothing $-1,685) |
| $335 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.90 | 1/1 | $3,580 | $3,499 | 53% | 69% | +$521 | -$3,034 | 32.7% | $-2,939 (vs do-nothing $-1,775) |
| $335 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 1/1 | $5,269 | $5,188 | 53% | 69% | +$1,100 | -$3,419 | 36.8% | $-3,324 (vs do-nothing $-2,160) |
| $332.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $20.15 | 1/1 | $4,030 | $3,949 | 51% | 68% | +$730 | -$3,059 | 32.9% | $-2,964 (vs do-nothing $-1,800) |
| $332.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.30 | 1/1 | $5,738 | $5,657 | 50% | 68% | +$1,099 | -$3,544 | 38.1% | $-3,449 (vs do-nothing $-2,285) |
| $330 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $19.85 | 1/1 | $3,970 | $3,889 | 49% | 67% | +$329 | -$3,339 | 35.9% | $-3,244 (vs do-nothing $-2,080) |
| $330 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.35 | 1/1 | $6,131 | $6,051 | 47% | 66% | +$988 | -$3,689 | 39.7% | $-3,594 (vs do-nothing $-2,430) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.