1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $380.73 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $28,290 | (ND $92.90 + SW $190) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $3,780/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $101/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,055 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 1 × $352.50 | 73% | $2,456 | $473 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $415 | 24 Jul | 8d | 24.6% | 98% | 5% | $100 | $374 | -$2,082 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $415 24.6% OTM over spot $333.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.05 mid) = $100 credit for the 8d cycle → $374/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $415) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $416.05) 98% EV / mo +$320 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $369 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,299 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $437 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $19.78/sh now → $13.99 mid-life (likely $8.66–$16.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 54 simulated challenges: the $415 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $423 (overshoots $7.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $415 is at/above CC-SS $380.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $416.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $415)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $375.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $380.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,295 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $415): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-760 (+$4,295 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,153, the opportunity cost of earning $374/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $380 | 24 Jul | 8d | 14.1% | 91% | 18% | $236 | $883 | -$1,573 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $380 14.1% OTM over spot $333.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.48 mid) = $236 credit for the 8d cycle → $883/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $382.48) 92% EV / mo +$556 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,183 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,045 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $402 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $18.11/sh now → $12.81 mid-life (likely $10.88–$17.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $388 (overshoots $7.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $380.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.36 collected) or spot ≥ $382.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $375.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $380.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,295 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $380): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-760 (+$4,295 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,153, the opportunity cost of earning $883/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $362.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 81% | 39% | $430 | $1,612 | -$844 | $1,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $362.50 8.9% OTM over spot $333.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.10 mid) = $430 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,612/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $367.60) 84% EV / mo +$597 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 83% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,617 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$792 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $394 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.28/sh now → $12.22 mid-life (likely $12.61–$19.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 891 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $370 (overshoots $7.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $18 below CC-SS $380.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $367.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $375.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $380.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,295 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $362.50): -$1,393 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,152 (+$2,903 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-240, the opportunity cost of earning $1,612/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $352.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 5.9% | 73% | 44% | $655 | $2,456 | — | $2,168 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $352.50 5.9% OTM over spot $333.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $7.82 mid) = $655 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,456/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $360.32) 79% EV / mo +$698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,908 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$533 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $400 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.80/sh now → $11.88 mid-life (likely $13.65–$20.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,335 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $360 (overshoots $7.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $28 below CC-SS $380.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.64/sh (~25% of the $6.55 collected) or spot ≥ $360.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $375.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $380.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,295 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $352.50): -$2,168 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,927 (+$2,128 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,015, the opportunity cost of earning $2,456/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $340 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.1% | 60% | 83% | $1,070 | $4,012 | +$1,556 | $3,003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $340 2.1% OTM over spot $333.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $11.93 mid) = $1,070 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,012/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $340) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $351.93) 72% EV / mo +$781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~11.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,714 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$76 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $392 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.20/sh now → $11.46 mid-life (likely $15.33–$21.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,006 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $348 (overshoots $7.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $340 is $41 below CC-SS $380.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.67/sh (~25% of the $10.70 collected) or spot ≥ $351.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $375.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $380.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,295 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $340): -$3,003 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,762 (+$1,293 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,912 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,850, the opportunity cost of earning $4,012/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$4,295 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,912
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 1/1 | $2,456 | $2,355 | 73% | 79% | +$698 | -$2,168 | 23.3% | $-2,927 (vs do-nothing $-1,015) |
| $350 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 1/1 | $2,719 | $2,618 | 70% | 78% | +$719 | -$2,348 | 25.3% | $-3,107 (vs do-nothing $-1,195) |
| $355 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 1/1 | $2,140 | $2,039 | 70% | 78% | +$615 | -$1,503 | 16.2% | $-2,262 (vs do-nothing $-350) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 1/1 | $2,320 | $2,219 | 68% | 77% | +$650 | -$1,663 | 17.9% | $-2,422 (vs do-nothing $-510) |
| $347.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 1/1 | $3,019 | $2,918 | 68% | 76% | +$752 | -$2,518 | 27.1% | $-3,277 (vs do-nothing $-1,365) |
| $355 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $13.90 | 1/1 | $1,895 | $1,794 | 68% | 76% | +$414 | -$1,183 | 12.7% | $-1,942 (vs do-nothing $-30) |
| $350 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 1/1 | $2,220 | $2,119 | 66% | 75% | +$394 | -$1,963 | 21.1% | $-2,722 (vs do-nothing $-810) |
| $345 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 1/1 | $3,300 | $3,199 | 65% | 75% | +$740 | -$2,693 | 29.0% | $-3,452 (vs do-nothing $-1,540) |
| $350 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $15.80 | 1/1 | $2,155 | $2,053 | 65% | 74% | +$454 | -$1,493 | 16.1% | $-2,252 (vs do-nothing $-340) |
| $347.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.15 | 1/1 | $2,630 | $2,529 | 65% | 75% | +$637 | -$2,008 | 21.6% | $-2,767 (vs do-nothing $-855) |
| $342.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 1/1 | $3,225 | $3,124 | 63% | 73% | +$344 | -$2,963 | 31.9% | $-3,722 (vs do-nothing $-1,810) |
| $345 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 1/1 | $2,820 | $2,719 | 63% | 74% | +$648 | -$2,163 | 23.3% | $-2,922 (vs do-nothing $-1,010) |
| $345 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $17.65 | 1/1 | $2,407 | $2,306 | 61% | 73% | +$462 | -$1,808 | 19.5% | $-2,567 (vs do-nothing $-655) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.95 | 1/1 | $2,990 | $2,889 | 61% | 73% | +$627 | -$2,328 | 25.1% | $-3,087 (vs do-nothing $-1,175) |
| $340 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 1/1 | $4,012 | $3,911 | 60% | 72% | +$781 | -$3,003 | 32.3% | $-3,762 (vs do-nothing $-1,850) |
| $340 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.05 | 1/1 | $3,210 | $3,109 | 59% | 72% | +$644 | -$2,468 | 26.6% | $-3,227 (vs do-nothing $-1,315) |
| $340 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $19.65 | 1/1 | $2,680 | $2,578 | 58% | 71% | +$456 | -$2,108 | 22.7% | $-2,867 (vs do-nothing $-955) |
| $337.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 1/1 | $3,975 | $3,874 | 57% | 70% | +$364 | -$3,263 | 35.1% | $-4,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,110) |
| $337.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.05 | 1/1 | $3,010 | $2,909 | 57% | 70% | +$228 | -$2,818 | 30.3% | $-3,577 (vs do-nothing $-1,665) |
| $335 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $21.95 | 1/1 | $2,993 | $2,892 | 55% | 70% | +$474 | -$2,378 | 25.6% | $-3,137 (vs do-nothing $-1,225) |
| $335 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $18.25 | 1/1 | $3,650 | $3,549 | 55% | 70% | +$640 | -$2,748 | 29.6% | $-3,507 (vs do-nothing $-1,595) |
| $335 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.85 | 1/1 | $4,819 | $4,718 | 54% | 70% | +$796 | -$3,288 | 35.4% | $-4,047 (vs do-nothing $-2,135) |
| $332.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $19.40 | 1/1 | $3,880 | $3,779 | 52% | 68% | +$629 | -$2,883 | 31.0% | $-3,642 (vs do-nothing $-1,730) |
| $332.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 1/1 | $5,138 | $5,036 | 51% | 68% | +$672 | -$3,453 | 37.2% | $-4,212 (vs do-nothing $-2,300) |
| $330 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $24.20 | 1/1 | $3,300 | $3,199 | 51% | 68% | +$454 | -$2,653 | 28.6% | $-3,412 (vs do-nothing $-1,500) |
| $330 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $20.15 | 1/1 | $4,030 | $3,929 | 50% | 68% | +$525 | -$3,058 | 32.9% | $-3,817 (vs do-nothing $-1,905) |
| $330 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 1/1 | $5,269 | $5,168 | 48% | 67% | +$467 | -$3,668 | 39.5% | $-4,427 (vs do-nothing $-2,515) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $20.90 | 1/1 | $4,180 | $4,079 | 48% | 67% | +$408 | -$3,233 | 34.8% | $-3,992 (vs do-nothing $-2,080) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.65 | 1/1 | $6,244 | $6,142 | 45% | 66% | +$919 | -$3,658 | 39.4% | $-4,417 (vs do-nothing $-2,505) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.