FORTRESS FIGHT: MDB @ $329.54

BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $377.45 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MDB @ $329.54 UNDERWATER $33.36 (9.2% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $362.90 | CC-SS: $377.45 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $270 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $190.151/sh)

SP: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $98.267/sh)

HP: $150 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.061/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$28,290	(ND $92.90 + SW $190) x 100
Normal income ref	$3,110/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$98/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-5,119	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,555/mo

HEDGE COVER
$98/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,110/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $9,290

ML VELOCITY
9.1 mo to earn back $28,290

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $377.45 (probe: $375C 15d) still earns $640/mo (21% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-141

Hole (after banked)

$5,260

was $5,119 · -3% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 70 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 41 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $379.02 (+15%) · daily UBB $375.08 · 1-wk expected move ±$31 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $377.45 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 1 × $380 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

86%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$340

Income / mo

$680

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	7 Aug 2026	14d left	-$2.29/sh	-$229 cycle +$111 [-$562…-$75] · 20% credit	66% surv 52%

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $390 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$246

Income / mo

$492

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	7 Aug 2026	14d left	-$2.67/sh	-$267 cycle -$21 [-$502…-$10] · 24% credit	66% surv 52%

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $405 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $405)

97%

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income / mo

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$415	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.26/sh	+$26 cycle +$28 [-$1…+$586] · 75% credit	70% surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$405	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$0.77/sh	-$77 cycle -$75 [-$91…+$445] · 67% credit	65% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$420	7 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.93/sh	-$193 cycle -$191 [-$257…+$369] · 60% credit	72% surv 64%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.089 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,218 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-777

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	1/1	$1,594	$1,496	76%	82%	+$205	-$2,070	22.3%	$-1,972 (vs do-nothing $-1,195)
$350	8d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	1/1	$1,800	$1,702	74%	80%	+$212	-$2,265	24.4%	$-2,167 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$355	15d	31 Jul 2026	$7.90	1/1	$1,580	$1,482	73%	79%	+$272	-$1,455	15.7%	$-1,357 (vs do-nothing $-580)
$347.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	1/1	$2,006	$1,908	72%	79%	+$190	-$2,460	26.5%	$-2,362 (vs do-nothing $-1,585)
$352.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$8.15	1/1	$1,630	$1,532	71%	78%	+$194	-$1,680	18.1%	$-1,582 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$350	15d	31 Jul 2026	$9.15	1/1	$1,830	$1,732	69%	77%	+$257	-$1,830	19.7%	$-1,732 (vs do-nothing $-955)
$345	8d	24 Jul 2026	$5.70	1/1	$2,138	$2,040	69%	77%	+$69	-$2,675	28.8%	$-2,577 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$347.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$8.90	1/1	$1,780	$1,682	67%	76%	+$59	-$2,105	22.7%	$-2,007 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)
$350	22d	7 Aug 2026	$12.65	1/1	$1,725	$1,627	67%	76%	+$237	-$1,480	15.9%	$-1,382 (vs do-nothing $-605)
$342.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	1/1	$2,362	$2,265	67%	76%	+$29	-$2,865	30.8%	$-2,767 (vs do-nothing $-1,990)
$345	15d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	1/1	$2,100	$2,002	65%	75%	+$220	-$2,195	23.6%	$-2,097 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$340	8d	24 Jul 2026	$7.00	1/1	$2,625	$2,527	64%	74%	$-13	-$3,045	32.8%	$-2,947 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$345	22d	7 Aug 2026	$14.00	1/1	$1,909	$1,811	64%	74%	+$197	-$1,845	19.9%	$-1,747 (vs do-nothing $-970)

Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$342.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$11.00	1/1	$2,200	$2,102	64%	74%	+$151	-$2,395	25.8%	$-2,297 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$340	15d	31 Jul 2026	$12.10	1/1	$2,420	$2,322	62%	73%	+$187	-$2,535	27.3%	$-2,437 (vs do-nothing $-1,660)
$337.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	1/1	$2,925	$2,827	61%	73%	$-48	-$3,215	34.6%	$-3,117 (vs do-nothing $-2,340)
$340	22d	7 Aug 2026	$16.20	1/1	$2,209	$2,111	61%	72%	+$247	-$2,125	22.9%	$-2,027 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)
$337.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$12.65	1/1	$2,530	$2,432	60%	72%	+$100	-$2,730	29.4%	$-2,632 (vs do-nothing $-1,855)
$335	8d	24 Jul 2026	$9.10	1/1	$3,412	$3,315	58%	71%	+$72	-$3,335	35.9%	$-3,237 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)
$335	15d	31 Jul 2026	$13.70	1/1	$2,740	$2,642	57%	71%	+$99	-$2,875	31.0%	$-2,777 (vs do-nothing $-2,000)
$335	22d	7 Aug 2026	$16.40	1/1	$2,236	$2,138	57%	70%	$-3	-$2,605	28.0%	$-2,507 (vs do-nothing $-1,730)
$332.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/1	$3,750	$3,652	56%	70%	+$9	-$3,495	37.6%	$-3,397 (vs do-nothing $-2,620)
$332.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$14.60	1/1	$2,920	$2,822	55%	69%	+$56	-$3,035	32.7%	$-2,937 (vs do-nothing $-2,160)
$330	22d	7 Aug 2026	$18.75	1/1	$2,557	$2,459	54%	69%	+$13	-$2,870	30.9%	$-2,772 (vs do-nothing $-1,995)
$330	15d	31 Jul 2026	$15.55	1/1	$3,110	$3,012	53%	68%	+$10	-$3,190	34.3%	$-3,092 (vs do-nothing $-2,315)
$330	8d	24 Jul 2026	$10.90	1/1	$4,088	$3,990	53%	68%	$-87	-$3,655	39.3%	$-3,557 (vs do-nothing $-2,780)
$327.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$16.60	1/1	$3,320	$3,222	51%	67%	$-29	-$3,335	35.9%	$-3,237 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)
$325	22d	7 Aug 2026	$21.25	1/1	$2,898	$2,800	50%	67%	+$21	-$3,120	33.6%	$-3,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,245)
$327.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$11.00	1/1	$4,125	$4,027	50%	66%	$-518	-$3,895	41.9%	$-3,797 (vs do-nothing $-3,020)
$325	15d	31 Jul 2026	$17.90	1/1	$3,580	$3,482	49%	66%	$-31	-$3,455	37.2%	$-3,357 (vs do-nothing $-2,580)
$325	8d	24 Jul 2026	$12.45	1/1	$4,669	$4,571	47%	65%	$-477	-$4,000	43.1%	$-3,902 (vs do-nothing $-3,125)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 21:38