FORTRESS FIGHT: META @ $565.42

SS: $601.50 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | 2026-06-29 23:15 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

META @ $565.42 UNDERWATER $36.08 (6.0% below SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | SS: $601.50 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $480 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $202.017/sh)

SP: $650 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $129.383/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.381/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$120,900	(ND $73.00 + SW $330) x 300
Normal income ref	$6,962/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$66/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-12,939	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,481/mo

HEDGE COVER
$66/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,962/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.1 mo to earn back $21,900

ML VELOCITY
17.4 mo to earn back $120,900

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $602 brings only $321/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 23 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 35 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $608.46 (+8%) · daily UBB $621.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$27 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 3 × $588 6 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.85 bid / $3.17 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $588)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $590.67)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,171

Gross FIGHT income	$3,664/mo
vs 50% target ($3,481/mo)	+5%
vs normal target ($6,962/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,598/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$3,345
… as % of IC ($21,900)	15.3%
… as % of ML ($120,900)	2.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-13,036
… cuts bleed by	-$66/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $3,481/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 3 contracts. IV 33% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~20% · flat exit -$1,669 net · free roll-up ≈ +$7/wk

Challenge odds

20%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,669

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$672 @ 87%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.85 collected) or spot ≥ $590.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $588)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $621.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $581.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $582-590.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $590.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$587.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$855	$-3,797	+$9,142	-$45
+2.5%	$602.19 (1.4σ)	$-3,551	$-2,691	+$10,248	-$4,451
+5%	$616.88 (1.9σ)	$-7,958	$-1,585	+$11,354	-$4,545

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.90/sh now → $8.41 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$588	8 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.14/sh	+$343 cycle +$1,198	64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$590	8 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$120 cycle +$975	66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$662	7 Aug 2026	36d left	+$0.51/sh	+$153 cycle +$1,008	83%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$672	31 Jul 2026	28d left	-$2.48/sh	-$744 cycle +$111	87%
budget: banked $855 debit $744 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,907/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($588) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 83% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 3 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	3 × $755 / 25d	+UBB 9%	24 Jul 2026	99+%	0%	$72	$6	-$0	0%
🎯 50% normal	3 × $588 / 7d	LBB-MBB	6 Jul 2026	80%	20%	$3,664	$3,598	-$3,345	15%
100% normal	3 × $575 / 7d	LBB-MBB	6 Jul 2026	64%	36%	$7,714	$7,648	-$6,150	28%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	3 × $755 / 25d	3 × $588 / 7d	3 × $575 / 7d
POP this week (from today)	100%	83%	73%
Challenge means spot ≥	$755 (+33.5%)	$588 (+3.9%)	$575 (+1.7%)
Odds of that challenge	~0%	~20%	~36%
Premium banked	$60	$855	$1,800
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$6,427	-$1,669	-$670
Free roll-up speed	+$20/wk	+$7/wk	+$7/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$785 @ 72% 7 Aug 2026 · 26d left at challenge	$672 @ 87% 31 Jul 2026 · 28d left at challenge	$685 @ 90% 7 Aug 2026 · 36d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$6,427	-$1,669	-$670
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$0 (0.0% IC)	-$3,345 (15.3% IC)	-$6,150 (28.1% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 3 contracts at $588 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,481/mo); it brings $3,664/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 3 × $575/7d for $7,714/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $755/25d (99+% survival, $72/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $3,345 (15% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $602, recoverable in 0.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 3 contracts realizes $-13,036 and cuts bleed by $66/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $601.50 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,939

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,541

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $588): -$3,345

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,743 (+$10,196 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,245, the opportunity cost of earning $3,664/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 101 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.251 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,541 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,502

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$588	7d	6 Jul 2026	$2.85	3/3	$3,664	$3,598	80%	83%	+$1,171	-$3,345	15.3%	$-2,743 (vs do-nothing $-4,245)
$590	9d	8 Jul 2026	$3.70	3/3	$3,700	$3,634	78%	82%	+$1,107	-$2,340	10.7%	$-1,738 (vs do-nothing $-3,240)
$592	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.75	3/3	$3,886	$3,820	78%	82%	+$1,394	-$1,275	5.8%	$-673 (vs do-nothing $-2,175)
$585	7d	6 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/3	$4,307	$4,241	77%	81%	+$1,290	-$3,945	18.0%	$-3,343 (vs do-nothing $-4,845)
$588	9d	8 Jul 2026	$4.25	3/3	$4,250	$4,184	76%	80%	+$1,220	-$2,925	13.4%	$-2,323 (vs do-nothing $-3,825)
$590	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.30	3/3	$4,336	$4,270	76%	80%	+$1,478	-$1,860	8.5%	$-1,258 (vs do-nothing $-2,760)
$595	18d	17 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/3	$3,600	$3,534	75%	79%	+$1,217	-$0	0.0%	$812 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$582	7d	6 Jul 2026	$3.90	3/3	$5,014	$4,948	74%	79%	+$1,380	-$4,530	20.7%	$-3,928 (vs do-nothing $-5,430)
$585	9d	8 Jul 2026	$4.90	3/3	$4,900	$4,834	74%	79%	+$1,371	-$3,480	15.9%	$-2,878 (vs do-nothing $-4,380)
$588	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.85	3/3	$4,786	$4,720	73%	79%	+$1,517	-$2,445	11.2%	$-1,843 (vs do-nothing $-3,345)
$592	18d	17 Jul 2026	$7.80	3/3	$3,900	$3,834	73%	78%	+$1,258	-$360	1.6%	$242 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$610	32d	31 Jul 2026	$13.45	3/3	$3,783	$3,717	72%	77%	+$1,065	-$0	0.0%	$4,637 (vs do-nothing +$3,135)
$580	7d	6 Jul 2026	$4.55	2/3	$3,900	$4,652	71%	77%	+$997	-$3,390	15.5%	$-2,488 (vs do-nothing $-3,990)

Show 88 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 88.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$585	11d	10 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/3	$3,573	$4,325	71%	77%	+$1,088	-$1,990	9.1%	$-1,088 (vs do-nothing $-2,590)
$590	18d	17 Jul 2026	$8.50	3/3	$4,250	$4,184	71%	77%	+$1,322	-$900	4.1%	$-298 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$595	25d	24 Jul 2026	$10.25	3/3	$3,690	$3,624	71%	77%	+$1,140	-$0	0.0%	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$582	9d	8 Jul 2026	$5.45	2/3	$3,633	$4,385	71%	77%	+$902	-$2,710	12.4%	$-1,808 (vs do-nothing $-3,310)
$610	39d	7 Aug 2026	$15.50	3/3	$3,577	$3,511	71%	77%	+$994	-$0	0.0%	$5,252 (vs do-nothing +$3,750)
$605	32d	31 Jul 2026	$14.95	3/3	$4,205	$4,138	70%	76%	+$1,159	-$0	0.0%	$5,087 (vs do-nothing +$3,585)
$585	14d	13 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/3	$4,371	$4,305	69%	76%	+$722	-$2,910	13.3%	$-2,308 (vs do-nothing $-3,810)
$588	18d	17 Jul 2026	$9.25	3/3	$4,625	$4,559	69%	76%	+$1,385	-$1,425	6.5%	$-823 (vs do-nothing $-2,325)
$582	11d	10 Jul 2026	$7.25	2/3	$3,955	$4,707	69%	76%	+$1,130	-$2,350	10.7%	$-1,448 (vs do-nothing $-2,950)
$605	39d	7 Aug 2026	$16.95	3/3	$3,912	$3,845	68%	75%	+$1,042	-$0	0.0%	$5,687 (vs do-nothing +$4,185)
$580	9d	8 Jul 2026	$6.15	2/3	$4,100	$4,852	68%	75%	+$940	-$3,070	14.0%	$-2,168 (vs do-nothing $-3,670)
$578	7d	6 Jul 2026	$5.25	2/3	$4,500	$5,252	68%	75%	+$1,040	-$3,750	17.1%	$-2,848 (vs do-nothing $-4,350)
$590	25d	24 Jul 2026	$11.70	3/3	$4,212	$4,146	68%	75%	+$1,204	-$0	0.0%	$662 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$600	32d	31 Jul 2026	$16.50	3/3	$4,641	$4,574	68%	75%	+$1,232	-$0	0.0%	$5,102 (vs do-nothing +$3,600)
$585	18d	17 Jul 2026	$10.00	3/3	$5,000	$4,934	67%	75%	+$1,420	-$1,950	8.9%	$-1,348 (vs do-nothing $-2,850)
$600	39d	7 Aug 2026	$18.45	3/3	$4,258	$4,191	66%	74%	+$1,075	-$0	0.0%	$5,687 (vs do-nothing +$4,185)
$580	11d	10 Jul 2026	$8.00	2/3	$4,364	$5,116	66%	74%	+$1,162	-$2,700	12.3%	$-1,798 (vs do-nothing $-3,300)
$578	9d	8 Jul 2026	$6.90	2/3	$4,600	$5,352	65%	74%	+$959	-$3,420	15.6%	$-2,518 (vs do-nothing $-4,020)
$595	32d	31 Jul 2026	$18.10	3/3	$5,091	$5,024	65%	74%	+$1,284	-$0	0.0%	$4,082 (vs do-nothing +$2,580)
$582	18d	17 Jul 2026	$10.85	2/3	$3,617	$4,369	65%	74%	+$985	-$1,630	7.4%	$-728 (vs do-nothing $-2,230)
$575	7d	6 Jul 2026	$6.00	2/3	$5,143	$5,895	64%	73%	+$1,043	-$4,100	18.7%	$-3,198 (vs do-nothing $-4,700)
$585	25d	24 Jul 2026	$13.40	3/3	$4,824	$4,758	64%	73%	+$1,289	-$930	4.2%	$-328 (vs do-nothing $-1,830)
$595	39d	7 Aug 2026	$20.15	3/3	$4,650	$4,584	64%	73%	+$1,125	-$0	0.0%	$4,697 (vs do-nothing +$3,195)
$578	11d	10 Jul 2026	$8.80	2/3	$4,800	$5,552	64%	73%	+$1,183	-$3,040	13.9%	$-2,138 (vs do-nothing $-3,640)
$580	18d	17 Jul 2026	$11.70	2/3	$3,900	$4,652	63%	73%	+$1,010	-$1,960	8.9%	$-1,058 (vs do-nothing $-2,560)
$590	32d	31 Jul 2026	$19.55	2/3	$3,666	$4,418	63%	72%	+$837	-$0	0.0%	$2,512 (vs do-nothing +$1,010)
$575	9d	8 Jul 2026	$7.70	2/3	$5,133	$5,885	62%	72%	+$953	-$3,760	17.2%	$-2,858 (vs do-nothing $-4,360)
$590	39d	7 Aug 2026	$21.90	3/3	$5,054	$4,988	62%	72%	+$1,156	-$0	0.0%	$3,722 (vs do-nothing +$2,220)
$575	11d	10 Jul 2026	$9.90	2/3	$5,400	$6,152	61%	72%	+$1,325	-$3,320	15.2%	$-2,418 (vs do-nothing $-3,920)
$580	25d	24 Jul 2026	$15.25	2/3	$3,660	$4,412	61%	71%	+$903	-$1,250	5.7%	$-348 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)
$578	18d	17 Jul 2026	$12.65	2/3	$4,217	$4,969	61%	71%	+$1,038	-$2,270	10.4%	$-1,368 (vs do-nothing $-2,870)
$572	7d	6 Jul 2026	$6.95	2/3	$5,957	$6,709	61%	71%	+$1,127	-$4,410	20.1%	$-3,508 (vs do-nothing $-5,010)
$585	32d	31 Jul 2026	$21.65	2/3	$4,059	$4,811	60%	71%	+$913	-$0	0.0%	$1,932 (vs do-nothing +$430)
$575	14d	13 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/3	$4,339	$4,273	60%	69%	$-1,309	-$5,925	27.1%	$-5,323 (vs do-nothing $-6,825)
$585	39d	7 Aug 2026	$23.80	2/3	$3,662	$4,413	60%	70%	+$794	-$0	0.0%	$2,362 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$572	9d	8 Jul 2026	$8.75	2/3	$5,833	$6,585	59%	70%	+$1,054	-$4,050	18.5%	$-3,148 (vs do-nothing $-4,650)
$575	18d	17 Jul 2026	$13.65	2/3	$4,550	$5,302	59%	70%	+$1,057	-$2,570	11.7%	$-1,668 (vs do-nothing $-3,170)
$572	11d	10 Jul 2026	$10.85	2/3	$5,918	$6,670	58%	70%	+$1,340	-$3,630	16.6%	$-2,728 (vs do-nothing $-4,230)
$580	32d	31 Jul 2026	$23.65	2/3	$4,434	$5,186	58%	70%	+$942	-$0	0.0%	$1,332 (vs do-nothing $-170)
$575	25d	24 Jul 2026	$17.30	2/3	$4,152	$4,904	57%	70%	+$944	-$1,840	8.4%	$-938 (vs do-nothing $-2,440)
$580	39d	7 Aug 2026	$25.85	2/3	$3,977	$4,729	57%	69%	+$818	-$0	0.0%	$1,772 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$570	7d	6 Jul 2026	$8.00	2/3	$6,857	$7,609	57%	69%	+$1,203	-$4,700	21.5%	$-3,798 (vs do-nothing $-5,300)
$572	18d	17 Jul 2026	$14.70	2/3	$4,900	$5,652	56%	69%	+$1,075	-$2,860	13.1%	$-1,958 (vs do-nothing $-3,460)
$570	9d	8 Jul 2026	$9.75	2/3	$6,500	$7,252	56%	69%	+$1,058	-$4,350	19.9%	$-3,448 (vs do-nothing $-4,950)
$570	11d	10 Jul 2026	$11.95	2/3	$6,518	$7,270	55%	69%	+$1,390	-$3,910	17.9%	$-3,008 (vs do-nothing $-4,510)
$575	32d	31 Jul 2026	$25.75	2/3	$4,828	$5,580	55%	69%	+$961	-$150	0.7%	$752 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$570	14d	13 Jul 2026	$8.85	2/3	$3,793	$4,545	55%	67%	$-825	-$4,530	20.7%	$-3,628 (vs do-nothing $-5,130)
$575	39d	7 Aug 2026	$27.85	2/3	$4,285	$5,037	55%	68%	+$812	-$0	0.0%	$1,172 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$570	18d	17 Jul 2026	$15.80	2/3	$5,267	$6,019	54%	68%	+$1,087	-$3,140	14.3%	$-2,238 (vs do-nothing $-3,740)
$570	25d	24 Jul 2026	$19.50	2/3	$4,680	$5,432	54%	68%	+$968	-$2,400	11.0%	$-1,498 (vs do-nothing $-3,000)
$568	7d	6 Jul 2026	$9.10	1/3	$3,900	$5,470	53%	68%	+$612	-$2,490	11.4%	$-1,288 (vs do-nothing $-2,790)
$568	9d	8 Jul 2026	$10.85	1/3	$3,617	$5,187	53%	67%	+$532	-$2,315	10.6%	$-1,113 (vs do-nothing $-2,615)
$570	32d	31 Jul 2026	$28.05	2/3	$5,259	$6,011	52%	67%	+$986	-$690	3.2%	$212 (vs do-nothing $-1,290)
$568	11d	10 Jul 2026	$13.15	1/3	$3,586	$5,157	52%	67%	+$722	-$2,085	9.5%	$-883 (vs do-nothing $-2,385)
$570	39d	7 Aug 2026	$30.15	2/3	$4,638	$5,390	52%	67%	+$828	-$270	1.2%	$632 (vs do-nothing $-870)
$568	18d	17 Jul 2026	$16.90	2/3	$5,633	$6,385	52%	67%	+$1,075	-$3,420	15.6%	$-2,518 (vs do-nothing $-4,020)
$565	39d	7 Aug 2026	$32.50	2/3	$5,000	$5,752	50%	66%	+$829	-$800	3.7%	$102 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$565	32d	31 Jul 2026	$30.40	2/3	$5,700	$6,452	50%	66%	+$990	-$1,220	5.6%	$-318 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$565	25d	24 Jul 2026	$21.80	2/3	$5,232	$5,984	50%	66%	+$958	-$2,940	13.4%	$-2,038 (vs do-nothing $-3,540)
$565	18d	17 Jul 2026	$18.20	2/3	$6,067	$6,819	50%	66%	+$1,096	-$3,660	16.7%	$-2,758 (vs do-nothing $-4,260)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-29 23:15