4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.27 (banked floor $166.05) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $4,004/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $206/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,766 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 21 Aug 2026 · 4d | 4 × $103 | 80% | $2,340 | $1,624 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 28 Aug 2026 · 11d | 4 × $103 | 73% | $2,084 | $136 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 21 Aug | 4d | 24.6% | 99+%hist 97% | 0%hist 1% | +0pp | $32 | $240 | -$2,100 | $19,275 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 24.6% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $32 credit for the 4d cycle → $240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $120.09) 99+% EV / mo +$239 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-192/mo median; plan ~$-131/mo after 68% keep · $-1,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [2.9-7.1], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,039 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $144 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.79/sh now → $2.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $48 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $120.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$19,275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,495 (+$14,271 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,972, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,576, position total $-21,250 (+$11,516 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $108 | 21 Aug | 4d | 12.2% | 91%hist 97% | 19%hist 10% | +7pp | $136 | $1,020 | -$1,320 | $23,971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 12.2% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.37 mid) = $136 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $108.37) 91% EV / mo +$342 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $428/mo median; plan ~$291/mo after 68% keep · $3,160 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.0-6.5], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$758 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $127 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.16/sh now → $2.24 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $110 (overshoots $2.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $108.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,971 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,191 (+$9,575 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,668, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,272, position total $-25,946 (+$6,820 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $106 | 21 Aug | 4d | 10.1% | 87%hist 87% | 26%hist 25% | +4pp | $184 | $1,380 | -$960 | $24,723 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 10.1% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.49 mid) = $184 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $106.50) 89% EV / mo +$364 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $613/mo median; plan ~$417/mo after 68% keep · $4,604 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-6.1], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$682 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $124 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.06/sh now → $2.17 mid-life (likely $2.13–$3.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 388 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $109 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $106.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,723 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,943 (+$8,823 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,420, the opportunity cost of earning $1,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,024, position total $-26,698 (+$6,068 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $103 | 21 Aug | 4d | 7.0% | 80%hist 87% | 40%hist 38% | +9pp | $312 | $2,340 | — | $25,795 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 7.0% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.83 mid) = $312 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $103.83) 83% EV / mo +$443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $986/mo median; plan ~$671/mo after 68% keep · $7,391 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.5-6.3], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$513 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $127 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.92/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 749 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $105 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $103.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$25,795 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,015 (+$7,751 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,492, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,096, position total $-27,770 (+$4,996 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 21 Aug | 4d | 2.8% | 65%hist 69% | 71%hist 64% | +12pp | $624 | $4,680 | +$2,340 | $27,083 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 2.8% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $1.62 mid) = $624 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $100.62) 73% EV / mo +$270 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,418/mo median; plan ~$964/mo after 68% keep · $10,900 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.0-6.3], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$148 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $123 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,463 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $101 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $69 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $100.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$27,083 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,303 (+$6,463 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,780, the opportunity cost of earning $4,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,384, position total $-29,058 (+$3,708 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $125 | 28 Aug | 11d | 29.8% | 97%hist 97% | 7%hist 1% | +1pp | $84 | $229 | -$1,855 | $17,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $125 29.8% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $0.28 mid) = $84 credit for the 11d cycle → $229/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $125) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $125.28) 97% EV / mo +$128 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-34/mo median; plan ~$-23/mo after 68% keep · $-244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.8-4.8], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,897 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $135 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.00/sh now → $4.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $125 is $43 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $125.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $125): -$17,223 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,443 (+$16,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,920, the opportunity cost of earning $229/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$524, position total $-19,198 (+$13,568 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $113 | 28 Aug | 11d | 17.4% | 90%hist 97% | 20%hist 25% | +4pp | $252 | $687 | -$1,396 | $21,855 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $113 17.4% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $0.70 mid) = $252 credit for the 11d cycle → $687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $113.70) 91% EV / mo +$261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $227/mo median; plan ~$154/mo after 68% keep · $1,682 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.6-6.1], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,404 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $124 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.85/sh now → $4.14 mid-life (likely $3.45–$5.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $116 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $113 is $55 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $113.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $113): -$21,855 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,075 (+$11,691 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,552, the opportunity cost of earning $687/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,156, position total $-23,830 (+$8,936 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $106 | 28 Aug | 11d | 10.1% | 80%hist 85% | 42%hist 38% | +3pp | $544 | $1,484 | -$600 | $24,363 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 10.1% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $1.45 mid) = $544 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,484/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $107.44) 83% EV / mo +$337 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $511/mo median; plan ~$347/mo after 68% keep · $4,181 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.3-5.7], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$935 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $120 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.23/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.73–$5.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 909 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $108 (overshoots $2.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $107.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,363 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,583 (+$9,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,060, the opportunity cost of earning $1,484/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,664, position total $-26,338 (+$6,428 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $103 | 28 Aug | 11d | 7.0% | 73%hist 85% | 56%hist 44% | +5pp | $764 | $2,084 | — | $25,343 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 7.0% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $2.02 mid) = $764 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,084/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $105.02) 78% EV / mo +$332 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $663/mo median; plan ~$451/mo after 68% keep · $5,408 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.3-6.3], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$642 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $120 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.92–$5.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,286 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $105 (overshoots $2.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.91 collected) or spot ≥ $105.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$25,343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,563 (+$8,203 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,040, the opportunity cost of earning $2,084/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,644, position total $-27,318 (+$5,448 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $97 | 28 Aug | 11d | 0.7% | 55%hist 69% | 95%hist 89% | +7pp | $1,480 | $4,036 | +$1,953 | $27,027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $97 0.7% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $3.90 mid) = $1,480 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,036/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $100.90) 68% EV / mo +$209 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 27% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $929/mo median; plan ~$631/mo after 68% keep · $7,541 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.9-6.2], measured ONLY among the 27% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$214 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $113 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.48/sh now → $3.17 mid-life (likely $4.41–$6.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,375 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $99 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $71 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $100.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,766 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,546 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $97): -$27,027 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,247 (+$6,519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,523 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,724, the opportunity cost of earning $4,036/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,328, position total $-29,002 (+$3,764 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.165 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,546 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,523
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 4/4 | $2,340 | $2,134 | 80% | 83% | +$443 | -$25,795 | 537.4% | $-25,015 (vs do-nothing $-22,492) |
| $102 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 3/4 | $2,092 | $1,889 | 77% | 81% | +$334 | -$19,601 | 408.4% | $-19,647 (vs do-nothing $-17,124) |
| $101 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 3/4 | $2,475 | $2,272 | 74% | 78% | +$301 | -$19,850 | 413.5% | $-19,896 (vs do-nothing $-17,373) |
| $103 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 4/4 | $2,084 | $1,878 | 73% | 78% | +$332 | -$25,343 | 528.0% | $-24,563 (vs do-nothing $-22,040) |
| $102 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 4/4 | $2,335 | $2,129 | 70% | 76% | +$326 | -$25,651 | 534.4% | $-24,871 (vs do-nothing $-22,348) |
| $100 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 3/4 | $2,993 | $2,789 | 70% | 75% | +$307 | -$20,081 | 418.4% | $-20,127 (vs do-nothing $-17,604) |
| $102 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 4/4 | $2,100 | $1,894 | 68% | 75% | +$301 | -$25,247 | 526.0% | $-24,467 (vs do-nothing $-21,944) |
| $101 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 4/4 | $2,618 | $2,412 | 68% | 74% | +$320 | -$25,947 | 540.6% | $-25,167 (vs do-nothing $-22,644) |
| $101 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 4/4 | $2,300 | $2,094 | 65% | 74% | +$304 | -$25,527 | 531.8% | $-24,747 (vs do-nothing $-22,224) |
| $99 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 2/4 | $2,340 | $2,139 | 65% | 73% | +$135 | -$13,541 | 282.1% | $-14,413 (vs do-nothing $-11,890) |
| $100 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 3/4 | $2,209 | $2,006 | 65% | 73% | +$242 | -$19,670 | 409.8% | $-19,716 (vs do-nothing $-17,193) |
| $98.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.69 | 2/4 | $2,535 | $2,334 | 63% | 71% | +$92 | -$13,615 | 283.7% | $-14,487 (vs do-nothing $-11,964) |
| $100 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 4/4 | $2,533 | $2,327 | 63% | 73% | +$321 | -$25,787 | 537.2% | $-25,007 (vs do-nothing $-22,484) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 4/4 | $2,184 | $1,978 | 62% | 72% | +$188 | -$25,487 | 531.0% | $-24,707 (vs do-nothing $-22,184) |
| $99 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 3/4 | $2,455 | $2,251 | 62% | 71% | +$217 | -$19,880 | 414.2% | $-19,926 (vs do-nothing $-17,403) |
| $98 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 2/4 | $2,655 | $2,454 | 60% | 69% | $-47 | -$13,699 | 285.4% | $-14,571 (vs do-nothing $-12,048) |
| $99 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $2,667 | $2,461 | 60% | 71% | +$217 | -$26,107 | 543.9% | $-25,327 (vs do-nothing $-22,804) |
| $99 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 4/4 | $2,352 | $2,146 | 60% | 70% | +$176 | -$25,747 | 536.4% | $-24,967 (vs do-nothing $-22,444) |
| $98 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 3/4 | $2,618 | $2,415 | 58% | 69% | +$80 | -$20,120 | 419.2% | $-20,166 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $97.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,799 | 58% | 68% | +$16 | -$13,753 | 286.5% | $-14,625 (vs do-nothing $-12,102) |
| $98 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.40 | 3/4 | $2,200 | $1,997 | 58% | 70% | +$168 | -$19,760 | 411.7% | $-19,806 (vs do-nothing $-17,283) |
| $98 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 4/4 | $2,544 | $2,338 | 57% | 70% | +$175 | -$25,987 | 541.4% | $-25,207 (vs do-nothing $-22,684) |
| $97 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 2/4 | $3,225 | $3,024 | 55% | 67% | $-63 | -$13,823 | 288.0% | $-14,695 (vs do-nothing $-12,172) |
| $97 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 3/4 | $2,052 | $1,849 | 55% | 68% | +$120 | -$19,670 | 409.8% | $-19,716 (vs do-nothing $-17,193) |
| $97 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 3/4 | $2,400 | $2,197 | 55% | 68% | +$157 | -$19,940 | 415.4% | $-19,986 (vs do-nothing $-17,463) |
| $97 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 2/4 | $2,018 | $1,818 | 55% | 68% | +$104 | -$13,513 | 281.5% | $-14,385 (vs do-nothing $-11,862) |
| $96 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $2,196 | $1,993 | 53% | 67% | +$98 | -$19,850 | 413.5% | $-19,896 (vs do-nothing $-17,373) |
| $96.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.39 | 2/4 | $3,585 | $3,384 | 53% | 65% | $-31 | -$13,875 | 289.1% | $-14,747 (vs do-nothing $-12,224) |
| $96 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.20 | 3/4 | $2,600 | $2,397 | 52% | 67% | +$127 | -$20,120 | 419.2% | $-20,166 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $96 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 2/4 | $2,155 | $1,954 | 51% | 66% | $-4 | -$13,663 | 284.7% | $-14,535 (vs do-nothing $-12,012) |
| $95 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.50 | 3/4 | $2,340 | $2,137 | 50% | 66% | +$65 | -$20,030 | 417.3% | $-20,076 (vs do-nothing $-17,553) |
| $96 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.53 | 2/4 | $3,795 | $3,594 | 50% | 64% | $-172 | -$13,947 | 290.6% | $-14,819 (vs do-nothing $-12,296) |
| $95 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.65 | 3/4 | $2,825 | $2,622 | 49% | 65% | +$104 | -$20,285 | 422.6% | $-20,331 (vs do-nothing $-17,808) |
| $95 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $2,400 | $2,199 | 48% | 64% | $-27 | -$13,773 | 286.9% | $-14,645 (vs do-nothing $-12,122) |
| $95 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 1/4 | $2,250 | $2,052 | 45% | 61% | $-122 | -$7,027 | 146.4% | $-8,724 (vs do-nothing $-6,201) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.