4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.37 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,624/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $292/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,656 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 4 × $106 | 78% | $3,045 | $597 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $127 | 24 Jul | 8d | 30.6% | 98% | 5% | $84 | $315 | -$2,730 | $16,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $127 30.6% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid) = $84 credit for the 8d cycle → $315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $127) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $127.30) 98% EV / mo +$228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.7-4.7] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-387 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,312 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $135 @ 76% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.47/sh now → $5.99 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $127 is $41 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $127.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $127): -$16,466 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,159 (+$15,497 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,144, the opportunity cost of earning $315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,400, position total $-17,766 (+$13,890 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $115 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.3% | 91% | 18% | $316 | $1,185 | -$1,860 | $21,034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $115 18.3% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.80 mid) = $316 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,185/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $115.80) 92% EV / mo +$713 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.1-5.3] median · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,155 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,718 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.19/sh now → $5.09 mid-life (likely $4.08–$7.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $118 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $53 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $115.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$21,034 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,727 (+$10,929 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,712, the opportunity cost of earning $1,185/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,968, position total $-22,334 (+$9,322 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $110 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.1% | 85% | 31% | $512 | $1,920 | -$1,125 | $22,838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $110 13.1% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.36 mid) = $512 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $111.36) 87% EV / mo +$907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.1-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,515 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,380 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $120 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.69/sh now → $4.73 mid-life (likely $4.37–$7.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 655 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $113 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $58 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.28 collected) or spot ≥ $111.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$22,838 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,531 (+$9,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,516, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,772, position total $-24,138 (+$7,518 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $106 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.0% | 78% | 37% | $812 | $3,045 | — | $24,138 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 9.0% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.15 mid) = $812 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,045/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $108.15) 82% EV / mo +$1,191 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~10.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,865 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$970 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.30/sh now → $4.45 mid-life (likely $4.78–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,099 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $109 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.03 collected) or spot ≥ $108.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,138 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,831 (+$7,825 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,816, the opportunity cost of earning $3,045/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,072, position total $-25,438 (+$6,218 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $100 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.9% | 61% | 81% | $1,560 | $5,850 | +$2,805 | $25,790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 2.9% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.03 mid) = $1,560 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $104.03) 73% EV / mo +$1,539 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.3-5.2] median · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~23.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,800 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$62 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $120 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.73/sh now → $4.05 mid-life (likely $5.32–$7.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,942 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $68 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $104.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$25,790 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,483 (+$6,173 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,468, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,724, position total $-27,090 (+$4,566 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,963 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,015
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $106 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 4/4 | $3,045 | $2,752 | 78% | 82% | +$1,191 | -$24,138 | 502.9% | $-23,831 (vs do-nothing $-20,816) |
| $105 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 4/4 | $3,420 | $3,127 | 75% | 81% | +$1,272 | -$24,438 | 509.1% | $-24,131 (vs do-nothing $-21,116) |
| $104 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 3/4 | $2,869 | $2,590 | 73% | 79% | +$1,006 | -$18,547 | 386.4% | $-19,071 (vs do-nothing $-16,056) |
| $106 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 4/4 | $2,960 | $2,668 | 72% | 78% | +$807 | -$23,470 | 489.0% | $-23,163 (vs do-nothing $-20,148) |
| $105 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/4 | $3,400 | $3,108 | 71% | 78% | +$1,221 | -$23,650 | 492.7% | $-23,343 (vs do-nothing $-20,328) |
| $103 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 3/4 | $3,116 | $2,838 | 70% | 78% | +$969 | -$18,781 | 391.3% | $-19,305 (vs do-nothing $-16,290) |
| $104 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/4 | $3,480 | $3,187 | 69% | 77% | +$1,074 | -$24,010 | 500.2% | $-23,703 (vs do-nothing $-20,688) |
| $102 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/4 | $3,431 | $3,153 | 67% | 76% | +$962 | -$18,997 | 395.8% | $-19,521 (vs do-nothing $-16,506) |
| $103 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 4/4 | $3,720 | $3,428 | 66% | 76% | +$1,069 | -$24,290 | 506.0% | $-23,983 (vs do-nothing $-20,968) |
| $101 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 3/4 | $3,881 | $3,603 | 64% | 75% | +$1,051 | -$19,177 | 399.5% | $-19,701 (vs do-nothing $-16,686) |
| $102 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/4 | $3,000 | $2,722 | 64% | 75% | +$814 | -$18,412 | 383.6% | $-18,936 (vs do-nothing $-15,921) |
| $101 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/4 | $3,240 | $2,962 | 62% | 73% | +$684 | -$18,592 | 387.3% | $-19,116 (vs do-nothing $-16,101) |
| $100 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/4 | $2,925 | $2,660 | 61% | 73% | +$770 | -$12,895 | 268.6% | $-14,249 (vs do-nothing $-11,234) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/4 | $3,540 | $3,262 | 60% | 72% | +$751 | -$18,742 | 390.5% | $-19,266 (vs do-nothing $-16,251) |
| $99 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/4 | $3,150 | $2,886 | 58% | 71% | +$697 | -$13,035 | 271.6% | $-14,389 (vs do-nothing $-11,374) |
| $99 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 3/4 | $3,750 | $3,472 | 58% | 72% | +$877 | -$18,937 | 394.5% | $-19,461 (vs do-nothing $-16,446) |
| $98.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $3,375 | $3,110 | 57% | 71% | +$762 | -$13,075 | 272.4% | $-14,429 (vs do-nothing $-11,414) |
| $98.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/4 | $3,900 | $3,622 | 56% | 71% | +$898 | -$19,012 | 396.1% | $-19,536 (vs do-nothing $-16,521) |
| $98 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 3/4 | $4,050 | $3,772 | 55% | 71% | +$916 | -$19,087 | 397.7% | $-19,611 (vs do-nothing $-16,596) |
| $98 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 2/4 | $3,562 | $3,298 | 55% | 70% | +$782 | -$13,125 | 273.4% | $-14,479 (vs do-nothing $-11,464) |
| $97.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/4 | $4,200 | $3,922 | 54% | 70% | +$929 | -$19,162 | 399.2% | $-19,686 (vs do-nothing $-16,671) |
| $97.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 2/4 | $3,712 | $3,448 | 53% | 69% | +$757 | -$13,185 | 274.7% | $-14,539 (vs do-nothing $-11,524) |
| $97 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 2/4 | $2,900 | $2,636 | 53% | 69% | +$506 | -$12,825 | 267.2% | $-14,179 (vs do-nothing $-11,164) |
| $96.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,736 | 52% | 69% | +$507 | -$12,875 | 268.2% | $-14,229 (vs do-nothing $-11,214) |
| $97 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/4 | $3,862 | $3,598 | 52% | 68% | +$724 | -$13,245 | 275.9% | $-14,599 (vs do-nothing $-11,584) |
| $96 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 2/4 | $3,100 | $2,836 | 51% | 68% | +$504 | -$12,925 | 269.3% | $-14,279 (vs do-nothing $-11,264) |
| $96.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/4 | $4,050 | $3,786 | 50% | 68% | +$720 | -$13,295 | 277.0% | $-14,649 (vs do-nothing $-11,634) |
| $96 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/4 | $4,275 | $4,010 | 48% | 67% | +$747 | -$13,335 | 277.8% | $-14,689 (vs do-nothing $-11,674) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.