FORTRESS FIGHT: MSTR-LC125 @ $97.22

BE SS: $161.00  |  CC-SS: $168.37  |  4 contracts (400 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-16 12:59

MSTR-LC125 @ $97.22   UNDERWATER $63.78 (39.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MSTR reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

4 contracts (400 sh)  |  BE SS: $161.00  |  CC-SS: $168.37  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $125 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $82.167/sh)
SP: $185 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $70.772/sh)
HP: $55 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.627/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$56,800(ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400
Normal income ref$5,624/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$292/mo
Unrealized P&L$-31,656fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,812/mo
HEDGE COVER
$292/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$5,624/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $4,800
ML VELOCITY
10.1 mo to earn back $56,800
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $168.37 (probe: $170C 15d) brings only $8/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 18 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 50 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $135.71 (+40%) · daily UBB $113.86 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPBounce ignition risk is maximal: stay at 🎯 min-cap, shortest DTE, momentum override armed. Challenges are the plan, not the surprise. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 4 contracts at $106 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,812/mo); it brings $3,045/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 4 × $100/8d for $5,850/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $127/8d (98% survival, $315/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $24,138 (503% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $161, recoverable in 4.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 4 contracts realizes $-31,704 and cuts bleed by $292/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 4 × $106, 78% survival, $3,045/mo (E[net] $597/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 8d4 × $10678%$3,045$597

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $597/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 4 × $106 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $3,045/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $110 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 22% → 15%) for $1,125/mo less (37% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $110 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MSTR to stay flat-to-down near term.
MSTR  spot $97.22 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge4 × $12724 Jul8d30.6%98%5%$84$315-$2,730$16,466
Sell 4 × $127 30.6% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid)
= $84 credit for the 8d cycle → $315/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $127)
98%
Breach risk
2%
POP (stays ≤ $127.30)
98%
EV / mo
+$228
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.7 mo [1.7-4.7] median  ·  36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without)  ·  ~0.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-387
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,312
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$135 @ 76% POP
67% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.47/sh now → $5.99 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.78/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12731 Jul 202611d left+$3.39/sh+$1,354
cycle +$1,438
69%
surv 54%
-$16,840 NOT
cap gain +$14,816
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$13531 Jul 202611d left+$0.56/sh+$226
cycle +$310
76%
surv 67%
-$14,474 NOT
cap gain +$17,182
Max even-money escape in the band~$13531 Jul 202611d left+$0.56/sh+$226
cycle +$310
76%
surv 67%
-$14,474 NOT
cap gain +$17,182
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$315/mo
vs 50% target ($2,812/mo)-89%
vs normal income ($5,624/mo)6% covered
Net income (after hedge)$22/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $127 is $41 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,466
… as % of IC ($4,800)343.0%
… as % of ML ($56,800)29.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.9 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-31,690
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $127.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $125.73Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$126-127.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $127.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$127.00 (2.5σ)$84$-18,195+$13,461+$56
+2.5%$130.17 (2.7σ)$-1,186$-18,039+$13,617-$1,214
+5%$133.35 (3.0σ)$-2,456$-17,882+$13,774-$2,484
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (5.3σ)$-13,516$-16,522+$15,134-$13,144
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $127): -$16,466
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,159 (+$15,497 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,144, the opportunity cost of earning $315/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,400, position total $-17,766 (+$13,890 vs today)
🛡 safe yield4 × $11524 Jul8d18.3%91%18%$316$1,185-$1,860$21,034
Sell 4 × $115 18.3% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.80 mid)
= $316 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,185/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $115)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $115.80)
92%
EV / mo
+$713
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.3 mo [2.1-5.3] median  ·  35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without)  ·  ~3.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,155
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,718
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$123 @ 77% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.19/sh now → $5.09 mid-life (likely $4.08–$7.14)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $118 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11531 Jul 202611d left+$2.90/sh+$1,159
cycle +$1,475
[+$1,111…+$1,570] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$22,194 NOT
cap gain +$9,462
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12131 Jul 202611d left+$0.40/sh+$159
cycle +$475
[-$22…+$452] · 73% credit
75%
surv 65%
-$20,598 NOT
cap gain +$11,058
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12331 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$8
cycle +$324
[-$182…+$285] · 54% credit
77%
surv 69%
-$19,851 NOT
cap gain +$11,805
Max even-money escape in the band~$12331 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$8
cycle +$324
[-$182…+$285] · 54% credit
77%
surv 69%
-$19,851 NOT
cap gain +$11,805
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,185/mo
vs 50% target ($2,812/mo)-58%
vs normal income ($5,624/mo)21% covered
Net income (after hedge)$893/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $115 is $53 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,034
… as % of IC ($4,800)438.2%
… as % of ML ($56,800)37.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.7 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-31,658
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $115.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $113.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$114-115.80
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $115.80
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$115.00 (1.5σ)$316$-23,353+$8,303+$288
+2.5%$117.87 (1.7σ)$-834$-23,212+$8,444-$862
+5%$120.75 (2.0σ)$-1,984$-23,070+$8,586-$2,012
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (5.3σ)$-18,084$-21,090+$10,566-$17,712
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$21,034
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,727 (+$10,929 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,712, the opportunity cost of earning $1,185/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,968, position total $-22,334 (+$9,322 vs today)
33% normal ← lean4 × $11024 Jul8d13.1%85%31%$512$1,920-$1,125$22,838
Sell 4 × $110 13.1% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.36 mid)
= $512 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,920/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $110)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $111.36)
87%
EV / mo
+$907
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.9 mo [2.1-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without)  ·  ~6.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,515
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
22%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,380
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$120 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.69/sh now → $4.73 mid-life (likely $4.37–$7.25)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 655 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $113 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11031 Jul 202611d left+$2.71/sh+$1,082
cycle +$1,594
[+$936…+$1,325] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$24,321 NOT
cap gain +$7,335
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11531 Jul 202611d left+$0.57/sh+$227
cycle +$739
[+$0…+$401] · 75% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$23,029 NOT
cap gain +$8,627
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11631 Jul 202611d left+$0.21/sh+$85
cycle +$597
[-$168…+$238] · 49% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$22,722 NOT
cap gain +$8,934
Max even-money escape in the band~$11631 Jul 202611d left+$0.21/sh+$85
cycle +$597
[-$168…+$238] · 49% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$22,722 NOT
cap gain +$8,934
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12031 Jul 202611d left-$1.13/sh-$450
cycle +$62
[-$835…-$347] · 8% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$21,460 NOT
cap gain +$10,196
budget: banked $512 debit $450 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,933/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,920/mo
vs 50% target ($2,812/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($5,624/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,628/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $110 is $58 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,838
… as % of IC ($4,800)475.8%
… as % of ML ($56,800)40.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.1 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-31,688
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.28 collected) or spot ≥ $111.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $108.90Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$109-111.36
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $111.36
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$110.00 (1.1σ)$512$-25,403+$6,253+$484
+2.5%$112.75 (1.3σ)$-588$-25,268+$6,388-$616
+5%$115.50 (1.5σ)$-1,688$-25,133+$6,523-$1,716
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (5.3σ)$-19,888$-22,894+$8,762-$19,516
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$22,838
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,531 (+$9,125 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,516, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,772, position total $-24,138 (+$7,518 vs today)
🎯 50% normal4 × $10624 Jul8d9.0%78%37%$812$3,045$24,138
Sell 4 × $106 9.0% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.15 mid)
= $812 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,045/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $106)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $108.15)
82%
EV / mo
+$1,191
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without)  ·  ~10.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,865
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$970
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$119 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.30/sh now → $4.45 mid-life (likely $4.78–$7.36)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,099 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $109 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10631 Jul 202611d left+$2.56/sh+$1,022
cycle +$1,834
[+$827…+$1,120] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$25,878 NOT
cap gain +$5,778
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11031 Jul 202611d left+$0.81/sh+$324
cycle +$1,136
[+$26…+$354] · 78% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$24,878 NOT
cap gain +$6,778
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11231 Jul 202611d left+$0.07/sh+$28
cycle +$840
[-$292…+$31] · 29% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$24,275 NOT
cap gain +$7,381
Max even-money escape in the band~$11231 Jul 202611d left+$0.07/sh+$28
cycle +$840
[-$292…+$31] · 29% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$24,275 NOT
cap gain +$7,381
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11931 Jul 202611d left-$1.81/sh-$724
cycle +$88
[-$1,249…-$786]
83%
surv 79%
-$21,884 NOT
cap gain +$9,772
budget: banked $812 debit $724 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,883/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,045/mo
vs 50% target ($2,812/mo)+8%
vs normal income ($5,624/mo)54% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,752/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,138
… as % of IC ($4,800)502.9%
… as % of ML ($56,800)42.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.3 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-31,704
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.03 collected) or spot ≥ $108.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $104.94Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$105-108.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $108.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$106.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$812$-26,900+$4,756+$784
+2.5%$108.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$-248$-26,770+$4,886-$276
+5%$111.30 (1.2σ)$-1,308$-26,639+$5,017-$1,336
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (5.3σ)$-21,188$-24,194+$7,462-$20,816
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,138
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,831 (+$7,825 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,816, the opportunity cost of earning $3,045/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,072, position total $-25,438 (+$6,218 vs today)
100% normal4 × $10024 Jul8d2.9%61%81%$1,560$5,850+$2,805$25,790
Sell 4 × $100 2.9% OTM over spot $97.22 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.03 mid)
= $1,560 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,850/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $104.03)
73%
EV / mo
+$1,539
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.5 mo [2.3-5.2] median  ·  41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without)  ·  ~23.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $10,800
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
65%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$62
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$120 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.73/sh now → $4.05 mid-life (likely $5.32–$7.43)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,942 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10031 Jul 202611d left+$2.34/sh+$935
cycle +$2,495
[+$688…+$851] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$27,912 NOT
cap gain +$3,744
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10331 Jul 202611d left+$1.10/sh+$438
cycle +$1,998
[+$114…+$309] · 89% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$27,160 NOT
cap gain +$4,496
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10531 Jul 202611d left+$0.22/sh+$86
cycle +$1,646
[-$282…-$68] · 16% credit
75%
surv 65%
-$26,614 NOT
cap gain +$5,042
Max even-money escape in the band~$10531 Jul 202611d left+$0.22/sh+$86
cycle +$1,646
[-$282…-$68] · 16% credit
75%
surv 65%
-$26,614 NOT
cap gain +$5,042
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12031 Jul 202611d left-$2.95/sh-$1,179
cycle +$381
[-$2,077…-$1,514]
90%
surv 89%
-$21,141 NOT
cap gain +$10,515
budget: banked $1,560 debit $1,179 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,209/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,850/mo
vs 50% target ($2,812/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($5,624/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,558/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $68 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,790
… as % of IC ($4,800)537.3%
… as % of ML ($56,800)45.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.6 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-31,706
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $104.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-104.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $104.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,560$-28,847+$2,809+$1,532
+2.5%$102.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$560$-28,724+$2,932+$532
+5%$105.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-440$-28,601+$3,055-$468
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (5.3σ)$-22,840$-25,846+$5,810-$22,468
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,656
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,963
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$25,790
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,483 (+$6,173 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,015 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,468, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,724, position total $-27,090 (+$4,566 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MSTR are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (28 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$31,963 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,015

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1068d24 Jul 2026$2.034/4$3,045$2,75278%82%+$1,191-$24,138502.9%$-23,831 (vs do-nothing $-20,816)
$1058d24 Jul 2026$2.284/4$3,420$3,12775%81%+$1,272-$24,438509.1%$-24,131 (vs do-nothing $-21,116)
$1048d24 Jul 2026$2.553/4$2,869$2,59073%79%+$1,006-$18,547386.4%$-19,071 (vs do-nothing $-16,056)
$10615d31 Jul 2026$3.704/4$2,960$2,66872%78%+$807-$23,470489.0%$-23,163 (vs do-nothing $-20,148)
$10515d31 Jul 2026$4.254/4$3,400$3,10871%78%+$1,221-$23,650492.7%$-23,343 (vs do-nothing $-20,328)
$1038d24 Jul 2026$2.773/4$3,116$2,83870%78%+$969-$18,781391.3%$-19,305 (vs do-nothing $-16,290)
$10415d31 Jul 2026$4.354/4$3,480$3,18769%77%+$1,074-$24,010500.2%$-23,703 (vs do-nothing $-20,688)
$1028d24 Jul 2026$3.053/4$3,431$3,15367%76%+$962-$18,997395.8%$-19,521 (vs do-nothing $-16,506)
$10315d31 Jul 2026$4.654/4$3,720$3,42866%76%+$1,069-$24,290506.0%$-23,983 (vs do-nothing $-20,968)
$1018d24 Jul 2026$3.453/4$3,881$3,60364%75%+$1,051-$19,177399.5%$-19,701 (vs do-nothing $-16,686)
$10215d31 Jul 2026$5.003/4$3,000$2,72264%75%+$814-$18,412383.6%$-18,936 (vs do-nothing $-15,921)
$10115d31 Jul 2026$5.403/4$3,240$2,96262%73%+$684-$18,592387.3%$-19,116 (vs do-nothing $-16,101)
$1008d24 Jul 2026$3.902/4$2,925$2,66061%73%+$770-$12,895268.6%$-14,249 (vs do-nothing $-11,234)
Show 15 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10015d31 Jul 2026$5.903/4$3,540$3,26260%72%+$751-$18,742390.5%$-19,266 (vs do-nothing $-16,251)
$998d24 Jul 2026$4.202/4$3,150$2,88658%71%+$697-$13,035271.6%$-14,389 (vs do-nothing $-11,374)
$9915d31 Jul 2026$6.253/4$3,750$3,47258%72%+$877-$18,937394.5%$-19,461 (vs do-nothing $-16,446)
$98.508d24 Jul 2026$4.502/4$3,375$3,11057%71%+$762-$13,075272.4%$-14,429 (vs do-nothing $-11,414)
$98.5015d31 Jul 2026$6.503/4$3,900$3,62256%71%+$898-$19,012396.1%$-19,536 (vs do-nothing $-16,521)
$9815d31 Jul 2026$6.753/4$4,050$3,77255%71%+$916-$19,087397.7%$-19,611 (vs do-nothing $-16,596)
$988d24 Jul 2026$4.752/4$3,562$3,29855%70%+$782-$13,125273.4%$-14,479 (vs do-nothing $-11,464)
$97.5015d31 Jul 2026$7.003/4$4,200$3,92254%70%+$929-$19,162399.2%$-19,686 (vs do-nothing $-16,671)
$97.508d24 Jul 2026$4.952/4$3,712$3,44853%69%+$757-$13,185274.7%$-14,539 (vs do-nothing $-11,524)
$9715d31 Jul 2026$7.252/4$2,900$2,63653%69%+$506-$12,825267.2%$-14,179 (vs do-nothing $-11,164)
$96.5015d31 Jul 2026$7.502/4$3,000$2,73652%69%+$507-$12,875268.2%$-14,229 (vs do-nothing $-11,214)
$978d24 Jul 2026$5.152/4$3,862$3,59852%68%+$724-$13,245275.9%$-14,599 (vs do-nothing $-11,584)
$9615d31 Jul 2026$7.752/4$3,100$2,83651%68%+$504-$12,925269.3%$-14,279 (vs do-nothing $-11,264)
$96.508d24 Jul 2026$5.402/4$4,050$3,78650%68%+$720-$13,295277.0%$-14,649 (vs do-nothing $-11,634)
$968d24 Jul 2026$5.702/4$4,275$4,01048%67%+$747-$13,335277.8%$-14,689 (vs do-nothing $-11,674)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-16 12:59