4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.22 (banked floor $166.32) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $274/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-33,288 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 4 × $101 | 77% | $2,850 | $458 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 31 Jul | 8d | 29.4% | 98% | 3% | +1pp | $84 | $315 | -$2,535 | $18,803 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 29.4% OTM over spot $92.75 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $84 credit for the 8d cycle → $315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $120.22) 98% EV / mo +$277 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-58/mo median; plan ~$-40/mo after 68% keep · $-488 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.7-5.8], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,073 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $135 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.62/sh now → $5.39 mid-life (likely $3.54–$6.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 64 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $123 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $47 below CC-SS $167.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $120.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,288 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,692 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,803 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,400 (+$14,888 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,920, the opportunity cost of earning $315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,400, position total $-20,155 (+$13,133 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $109 | 31 Jul | 8d | 17.5% | 91% | 20% | +4pp | $264 | $990 | -$1,860 | $23,023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $109 17.5% OTM over spot $92.75 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.74 mid) = $264 credit for the 8d cycle → $990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $109) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $109.73) 91% EV / mo +$468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $354/mo median; plan ~$241/mo after 68% keep · $2,492 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.3-6.2], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,579 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $122 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.51/sh now → $4.61 mid-life (likely $3.67–$6.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 420 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $112 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $109 is $58 below CC-SS $167.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $109.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,288 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,692 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $109): -$23,023 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,620 (+$10,668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,140, the opportunity cost of earning $990/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,620, position total $-24,375 (+$8,913 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $104 | 31 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 83% | 35% | +5pp | $508 | $1,905 | -$945 | $24,779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 12.1% OTM over spot $92.75 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.36 mid) = $508 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,905/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $105.36) 86% EV / mo +$737 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $681/mo median; plan ~$463/mo after 68% keep · $5,428 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.9-6.7], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,200 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $119 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.04/sh now → $4.27 mid-life (likely $4.28–$6.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 812 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $107 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $63 below CC-SS $167.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $105.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,288 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,692 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$24,779 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,376 (+$8,912 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,896, the opportunity cost of earning $1,905/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,376, position total $-26,131 (+$7,157 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $101 | 31 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 77% | 39% | +9pp | $760 | $2,850 | — | $25,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $101 8.9% OTM over spot $92.75 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.95 mid) = $760 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $102.95) 82% EV / mo +$1,059 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $982/mo median; plan ~$668/mo after 68% keep · $7,372 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.2-5.9], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$870 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $119 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.76/sh now → $4.07 mid-life (likely $4.37–$6.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,174 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $104 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $66 below CC-SS $167.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.90 collected) or spot ≥ $102.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,288 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,692 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$25,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,324 (+$7,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,844, the opportunity cost of earning $2,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,324, position total $-27,079 (+$6,209 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $95 | 31 Jul | 8d | 2.4% | 60% | 84% | +7pp | $1,500 | $5,625 | +$2,775 | $27,387 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $95 2.4% OTM over spot $92.75 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.90 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $98.90) 72% EV / mo +$1,268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,368/mo median; plan ~$930/mo after 68% keep · $10,482 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.3-5.3], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$22 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $113 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $4.94–$6.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,001 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $98 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $72 below CC-SS $167.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.94/sh (~25% of the $3.75 collected) or spot ≥ $98.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,288 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,692 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $95): -$27,387 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,984 (+$6,304 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,504, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,984, position total $-28,739 (+$4,549 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.131 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,692 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,480
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 4/4 | $2,850 | $2,576 | 77% | 82% | +$1,059 | -$25,727 | 536.0% | $-25,324 (vs do-nothing $-22,844) |
| $100 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 4/4 | $3,150 | $2,876 | 75% | 80% | +$1,048 | -$26,047 | 542.7% | $-25,644 (vs do-nothing $-23,164) |
| $99 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 3/4 | $2,677 | $2,406 | 72% | 79% | +$837 | -$19,752 | 411.5% | $-20,069 (vs do-nothing $-17,589) |
| $101 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 4/4 | $2,560 | $2,286 | 72% | 78% | +$665 | -$25,207 | 525.2% | $-24,804 (vs do-nothing $-22,324) |
| $98.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 3/4 | $2,846 | $2,575 | 71% | 78% | +$860 | -$19,857 | 413.7% | $-20,174 (vs do-nothing $-17,694) |
| $100 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 4/4 | $2,840 | $2,566 | 70% | 77% | +$735 | -$25,467 | 530.6% | $-25,064 (vs do-nothing $-22,584) |
| $98 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.66 | 3/4 | $2,993 | $2,721 | 69% | 77% | +$853 | -$19,968 | 416.0% | $-20,285 (vs do-nothing $-17,805) |
| $100 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 4/4 | $2,564 | $2,290 | 68% | 76% | +$608 | -$25,007 | 521.0% | $-24,604 (vs do-nothing $-22,124) |
| $99 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $3,080 | $2,806 | 68% | 76% | +$746 | -$25,747 | 536.4% | $-25,344 (vs do-nothing $-22,864) |
| $97.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 3/4 | $3,161 | $2,890 | 68% | 76% | +$858 | -$20,073 | 418.2% | $-20,390 (vs do-nothing $-17,910) |
| $98.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $3,200 | $2,926 | 67% | 75% | +$744 | -$25,887 | 539.3% | $-25,484 (vs do-nothing $-23,004) |
| $97 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/4 | $3,375 | $3,103 | 66% | 75% | +$899 | -$20,166 | 420.1% | $-20,483 (vs do-nothing $-18,003) |
| $99 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 4/4 | $2,755 | $2,481 | 66% | 75% | +$631 | -$25,267 | 526.4% | $-24,864 (vs do-nothing $-22,384) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $3,200 | $2,926 | 66% | 75% | +$616 | -$26,087 | 543.5% | $-25,684 (vs do-nothing $-23,204) |
| $96.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/4 | $3,544 | $3,272 | 65% | 75% | +$885 | -$20,271 | 422.3% | $-20,588 (vs do-nothing $-18,108) |
| $97.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.35 | 3/4 | $2,610 | $2,338 | 65% | 74% | +$572 | -$19,611 | 408.6% | $-19,928 (vs do-nothing $-17,448) |
| $98 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $2,945 | $2,672 | 65% | 74% | +$641 | -$25,527 | 531.8% | $-25,124 (vs do-nothing $-22,644) |
| $97 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 3/4 | $2,730 | $2,458 | 64% | 74% | +$589 | -$19,701 | 410.4% | $-20,018 (vs do-nothing $-17,538) |
| $96 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/4 | $3,712 | $3,441 | 63% | 73% | +$861 | -$20,376 | 424.5% | $-20,693 (vs do-nothing $-18,213) |
| $97 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 4/4 | $3,164 | $2,890 | 63% | 73% | +$666 | -$25,767 | 536.8% | $-25,364 (vs do-nothing $-22,884) |
| $96.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 3/4 | $2,850 | $2,578 | 63% | 73% | +$600 | -$19,791 | 412.3% | $-20,108 (vs do-nothing $-17,628) |
| $96 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 3/4 | $2,970 | $2,698 | 61% | 73% | +$608 | -$19,881 | 414.2% | $-20,198 (vs do-nothing $-17,718) |
| $96 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 4/4 | $3,327 | $3,054 | 61% | 72% | +$623 | -$26,047 | 542.7% | $-25,644 (vs do-nothing $-23,164) |
| $95 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 2/4 | $2,812 | $2,543 | 60% | 72% | +$634 | -$13,694 | 285.3% | $-14,732 (vs do-nothing $-12,252) |
| $95 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,210 | $2,938 | 59% | 71% | +$610 | -$20,061 | 417.9% | $-20,378 (vs do-nothing $-17,898) |
| $95 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.55 | 3/4 | $2,680 | $2,408 | 59% | 71% | +$486 | -$19,701 | 410.4% | $-20,018 (vs do-nothing $-17,538) |
| $94 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 2/4 | $3,113 | $2,843 | 57% | 70% | +$559 | -$13,814 | 287.8% | $-14,852 (vs do-nothing $-12,372) |
| $94 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.95 | 3/4 | $2,843 | $2,571 | 57% | 70% | +$474 | -$19,881 | 414.2% | $-20,198 (vs do-nothing $-17,718) |
| $94 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 3/4 | $3,450 | $3,178 | 57% | 70% | +$595 | -$20,241 | 421.7% | $-20,558 (vs do-nothing $-18,078) |
| $93 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.45 | 3/4 | $3,048 | $2,776 | 55% | 69% | +$492 | -$20,031 | 417.3% | $-20,348 (vs do-nothing $-17,868) |
| $93 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.25 | 2/4 | $2,500 | $2,230 | 54% | 69% | +$414 | -$13,594 | 283.2% | $-14,632 (vs do-nothing $-12,152) |
| $93 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/4 | $3,488 | $3,218 | 53% | 68% | +$590 | -$13,914 | 289.9% | $-14,952 (vs do-nothing $-12,472) |
| $92 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 3/4 | $3,252 | $2,981 | 52% | 69% | +$499 | -$20,181 | 420.4% | $-20,498 (vs do-nothing $-18,018) |
| $92 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 2/4 | $2,700 | $2,430 | 51% | 68% | +$431 | -$13,694 | 285.3% | $-14,732 (vs do-nothing $-12,252) |
| $91 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 3/4 | $3,436 | $3,165 | 50% | 68% | +$475 | -$20,346 | 423.9% | $-20,663 (vs do-nothing $-18,183) |
| $92 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 2/4 | $3,825 | $3,555 | 50% | 67% | +$551 | -$14,024 | 292.2% | $-15,062 (vs do-nothing $-12,582) |
| $91 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 2/4 | $2,880 | $2,610 | 49% | 67% | +$407 | -$13,804 | 287.6% | $-14,842 (vs do-nothing $-12,362) |
| $91 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 2/4 | $4,238 | $3,968 | 47% | 66% | +$555 | -$14,114 | 294.0% | $-15,152 (vs do-nothing $-12,672) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.