FORTRESS FIGHT: MSTR-LC125 @ $93.17

BE SS: $161.00  |  CC-SS: $168.03  |  4 contracts (400 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-24 21:40

MSTR-LC125 @ $93.17   UNDERWATER $67.83 (42.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MSTR reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 7 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.

4 contracts (400 sh)  |  BE SS: $161.00  |  CC-SS: $168.03 (banked floor $167.13)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $125 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $82.167/sh)
SP: $185 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $70.772/sh)
HP: $55 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.627/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$56,800(ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400
Normal income ref$4,912/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$296/mo
Unrealized P&L$-33,430fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,456/mo
HEDGE COVER
$296/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,912/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $4,800
ML VELOCITY
11.6 mo to earn back $56,800
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $168.03 (probe: $170C 14d) brings only $9/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$401
Hole (after banked)
$33,029
was $33,430 · 1% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$168.03 → $167.13
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 18 (live) · RSI 34 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 34 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $133.57 (+43%) · daily UBB $102.64 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 4 contracts at $101 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,456/mo); it brings $2,571/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 4 × $96/7d for $5,057/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $118/7d (98% survival, $309/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $26,211 (546% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $161, recoverable in 5.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 4 contracts realizes $-33,474 and cuts bleed by $296/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 4 × $101, 78% survival, $2,571/mo (E[net] $477/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆31 Jul 2026 · 7d4 × $10178%$2,571$477

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $477/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 4 × $101 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $2,571/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $104 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 22% → 15%) for $789/mo less (31% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $104 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MSTR to stay flat-to-down near term.
MSTR  spot $93.17 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge4 × $11831 Jul7d26.7%98%3%+1pp$72$309-$2,263$19,939
Sell 4 × $118 26.7% OTM over spot $93.17 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid)
= $72 credit for the 7d cycle → $309/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $118)
98%
Breach risk
2%
POP (stays ≤ $118.20)
98%
EV / mo
+$266
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
29% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-59/mo
median; plan ~$-40/mo after 68% keep · $-486 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.4-6.6], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
2%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,745
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$140 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.42/sh now → $4.54 mid-life (likely $2.88–$5.98)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 66 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $121 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1187 Aug 202610d left+$2.82/sh+$1,129
cycle +$1,201
[+$1,191…+$1,601] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$20,996 NOT
cap gain +$12,434
Max even-money escape in the band~$13521 Aug 202624d left+$0.90/sh+$358
cycle +$430
[+$236…+$949] · 86% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$14,153 NOT
cap gain +$19,277
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1257 Aug 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$69
cycle +$141
[-$22…+$509] · 70% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$18,966 NOT
cap gain +$14,464
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$14021 Aug 202624d left-$0.08/sh-$31
cycle +$41
[-$166…+$559] · 64% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$12,280 NOT
cap gain +$21,150
budget: banked $72 debit $31 (43% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,233/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$309/mo
vs 50% target ($2,456/mo)-87%
vs normal income ($4,912/mo)6% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $118 is $50 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,939
… as % of IC ($4,800)415.4%
… as % of ML ($56,800)35.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.1 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-33,440
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $118.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $118)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $102.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $116.82Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$117-118.20
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $118.20
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$118.00 (2.3σ)$72$-22,125+$11,305+$68
+2.5%$120.95 (2.6σ)$-1,108$-21,970+$11,460-$1,112
+5%$123.90 (2.9σ)$-2,288$-21,816+$11,614-$2,292
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (6.4σ)$-17,128$-19,872+$13,558-$16,732
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,430
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,865
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $118): -$19,939
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,503 (+$13,927 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,732, the opportunity cost of earning $309/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $133.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,156, position total $-21,309 (+$12,121 vs today)
🛡 safe yield4 × $10831 Jul7d15.9%91%18%+4pp$232$994-$1,577$23,779
Sell 4 × $108 15.9% OTM over spot $93.17 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid)
= $232 credit for the 7d cycle → $994/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $108)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $108.65)
92%
EV / mo
+$530
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
30% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$346/mo
median; plan ~$235/mo after 68% keep · $2,665 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.6-5.8], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,338
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$125 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.55/sh now → $3.93 mid-life (likely $3.34–$5.72)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $111 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1087 Aug 202610d left+$2.44/sh+$976
cycle +$1,208
[+$926…+$1,330] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$25,513 NOT
cap gain +$7,917
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12021 Aug 202624d left+$1.50/sh+$600
cycle +$832
[+$395…+$942] · 96% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$20,537 NOT
cap gain +$12,893
Max even-money escape in the band~$12521 Aug 202624d left+$0.21/sh+$86
cycle +$318
[-$201…+$370] · 58% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$18,789 NOT
cap gain +$14,641
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1137 Aug 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$58
cycle +$290
[-$143…+$280] · 58% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$24,020 NOT
cap gain +$9,410
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$994/mo
vs 50% target ($2,456/mo)-60%
vs normal income ($4,912/mo)20% covered
Net income (after hedge)$699/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$23,779
… as % of IC ($4,800)495.4%
… as % of ML ($56,800)41.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-33,458
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $108.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $102.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $106.92Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$107-108.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $108.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$108.00 (1.4σ)$232$-26,489+$6,941+$228
+2.5%$110.70 (1.6σ)$-848$-26,347+$7,083-$852
+5%$113.40 (1.9σ)$-1,928$-26,206+$7,224-$1,932
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (6.4σ)$-20,968$-23,712+$9,718-$20,572
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,430
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,865
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,779
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,343 (+$10,087 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,572, the opportunity cost of earning $994/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $133.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,996, position total $-25,149 (+$8,281 vs today)
33% normal ← lean4 × $10431 Jul7d11.6%85%32%+6pp$416$1,783-$789$25,195
Sell 4 × $104 11.6% OTM over spot $93.17 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.10 mid)
= $416 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,783/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $104)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $105.10)
87%
EV / mo
+$733
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
33% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$654/mo
median; plan ~$445/mo after 68% keep · $4,690 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.2-5.4], measured ONLY among the 33% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
22%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,060
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$126 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $3.50–$5.80)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.65/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 665 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1047 Aug 202610d left+$2.29/sh+$917
cycle +$1,333
[+$797…+$1,099] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$27,197 NOT
cap gain +$6,233
Max even-money escape in the band~$11621 Aug 202624d left+$1.21/sh+$482
cycle +$898
[+$189…+$679] · 89% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$22,280 NOT
cap gain +$11,150
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1097 Aug 202610d left+$0.03/sh+$13
cycle +$429
[-$255…+$137] · 37% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$25,690 NOT
cap gain +$7,740
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12621 Aug 202624d left-$0.86/sh-$346
cycle +$70
[-$799…-$218] · 13% credit
85%
surv 83%
-$18,584 NOT
cap gain +$14,846
budget: banked $416 debit $346 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,413/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,783/mo
vs 50% target ($2,456/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($4,912/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,487/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $104 is $64 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,195
… as % of IC ($4,800)524.9%
… as % of ML ($56,800)44.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)5.1 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-33,454
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.04 collected) or spot ≥ $105.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $102.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$103-105.10
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.10
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$104.00 (1.0σ)$416$-28,114+$5,316+$412
+2.5%$106.60 (1.3σ)$-624$-27,978+$5,452-$628
+5%$109.20 (1.5σ)$-1,664$-27,842+$5,588-$1,668
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (6.4σ)$-22,384$-25,128+$8,302-$21,988
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,430
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,865
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$25,195
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,759 (+$8,671 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,988, the opportunity cost of earning $1,783/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $133.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,412, position total $-26,565 (+$6,865 vs today)
🎯 50% normal4 × $10131 Jul7d8.4%78%35%+6pp$600$2,571$26,211
Sell 4 × $101 8.4% OTM over spot $93.17 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.61 mid)
= $600 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,571/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $101)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $102.61)
82%
EV / mo
+$740
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
37% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$873/mo
median; plan ~$594/mo after 68% keep · $6,547 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.6-6.2], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$807
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$123 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.83–$5.81)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,042 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $104 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1017 Aug 202610d left+$2.19/sh+$875
cycle +$1,475
[+$738…+$1,016] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$28,413 NOT
cap gain +$5,017
Max even-money escape in the band~$11321 Aug 202624d left+$0.99/sh+$398
cycle +$998
[+$35…+$453] · 79% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$23,538 NOT
cap gain +$9,892
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1067 Aug 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$60
cycle +$660
[-$227…+$83] · 34% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$27,043 NOT
cap gain +$6,387
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12321 Aug 202624d left-$1.00/sh-$400
cycle +$200
[-$932…-$424] · 6% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$19,811 NOT
cap gain +$13,619
budget: banked $600 debit $400 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$200 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,260/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,571/mo
vs 50% target ($2,456/mo)+5%
vs normal income ($4,912/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,276/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $101 is $67 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$26,211
… as % of IC ($4,800)546.1%
… as % of ML ($56,800)46.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)5.3 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-33,474
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $102.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $102.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$100-102.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $102.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$101.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$600$-29,288+$4,142+$596
+2.5%$103.52 (≤1σ, normal week)$-410$-29,155+$4,275-$414
+5%$106.05 (1.2σ)$-1,420$-29,023+$4,407-$1,424
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (6.4σ)$-23,400$-26,144+$7,286-$23,004
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,430
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,865
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$26,211
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,775 (+$7,655 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,004, the opportunity cost of earning $2,571/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $133.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,428, position total $-27,581 (+$5,849 vs today)
100% normal4 × $9631 Jul7d3.0%63%78%+10pp$1,180$5,057+$2,486$27,631
Sell 4 × $96 3.0% OTM over spot $93.17 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.15 mid)
= $1,180 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,057/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $96)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $99.15)
73%
EV / mo
+$914
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
39% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~8.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,288/mo
median; plan ~$876/mo after 68% keep · $9,436 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.3-5.6], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
60%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$116
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$123 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.58/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $4.21–$6.07)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,801 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$967 Aug 202610d left+$2.01/sh+$806
cycle +$1,986
[+$619…+$763] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$30,164 NOT
cap gain +$3,266
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10621 Aug 202624d left+$1.16/sh+$465
cycle +$1,645
[+$26…+$313] · 77% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$26,058 NOT
cap gain +$7,372
Max even-money escape in the band~$10821 Aug 202624d left+$0.66/sh+$265
cycle +$1,445
[-$214…+$93] · 38% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$25,352 NOT
cap gain +$8,078
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1017 Aug 202610d left+$0.01/sh+$5
cycle +$1,185
[-$364…-$128] · 12% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$28,779 NOT
cap gain +$4,651
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12321 Aug 202624d left-$1.79/sh-$715
cycle +$465
[-$1,495…-$987]
90%
surv 89%
-$19,546 NOT
cap gain +$13,884
budget: banked $1,180 debit $715 (61% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$465 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $727/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,057/mo
vs 50% target ($2,456/mo)+106%
vs normal income ($4,912/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,761/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $96 is $72 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$27,631
… as % of IC ($4,800)575.6%
… as % of ML ($56,800)48.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)5.6 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-33,510
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.74/sh (~25% of the $2.95 collected) or spot ≥ $99.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $102.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$95-99.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $99.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$96.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,180$-30,970+$2,460+$1,176
+2.5%$98.40 (≤1σ, normal week)$220$-30,844+$2,586+$216
+5%$100.80 (≤1σ, normal week)$-740$-30,718+$2,712-$744
SS (= V-bounce)$161.00 (6.4σ)$-24,820$-27,564+$5,866-$24,424
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,430
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,865
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $96): -$27,631
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,195 (+$6,235 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,424, the opportunity cost of earning $5,057/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $133.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,848, position total $-29,001 (+$4,429 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MSTR are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (46 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 46 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.131 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$33,865 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,771

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1017d31 Jul 2026$1.504/4$2,571$2,27678%82%+$740-$26,211546.1%$-25,775 (vs do-nothing $-23,004)
$1007d31 Jul 2026$1.804/4$3,086$2,79075%80%+$905-$26,491551.9%$-26,055 (vs do-nothing $-23,284)
$997d31 Jul 2026$2.023/4$2,597$2,30472%78%+$661-$20,102418.8%$-20,468 (vs do-nothing $-17,697)
$10114d7 Aug 2026$2.944/4$2,520$2,22472%78%+$561-$25,635534.1%$-25,199 (vs do-nothing $-22,428)
$98.507d31 Jul 2026$2.153/4$2,764$2,47171%77%+$662-$20,213421.1%$-20,579 (vs do-nothing $-17,808)
$10014d7 Aug 2026$3.254/4$2,786$2,49070%77%+$597-$25,911539.8%$-25,475 (vs do-nothing $-22,704)
$987d31 Jul 2026$2.303/4$2,957$2,66469%76%+$677-$20,318423.3%$-20,684 (vs do-nothing $-17,913)
$10021d14 Aug 2026$4.354/4$2,486$2,19068%75%+$434-$25,471530.6%$-25,035 (vs do-nothing $-22,264)
$9914d7 Aug 2026$3.354/4$2,871$2,57668%75%+$433-$26,271547.3%$-25,835 (vs do-nothing $-23,064)
$97.507d31 Jul 2026$2.453/4$3,150$2,85668%75%+$681-$20,423425.5%$-20,789 (vs do-nothing $-18,018)
$98.5014d7 Aug 2026$3.554/4$3,043$2,74766%75%+$471-$26,391549.8%$-25,955 (vs do-nothing $-23,184)
$977d31 Jul 2026$2.593/4$3,330$3,03666%74%+$661-$20,531427.7%$-20,897 (vs do-nothing $-18,126)
$9921d14 Aug 2026$4.604/4$2,629$2,33366%74%+$395-$25,771536.9%$-25,335 (vs do-nothing $-22,564)
Show 33 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9814d7 Aug 2026$3.754/4$3,214$2,91965%74%+$503-$26,511552.3%$-26,075 (vs do-nothing $-23,304)
$9928d21 Aug 2026$5.804/4$2,486$2,19065%74%+$423-$25,291526.9%$-24,855 (vs do-nothing $-22,084)
$96.507d31 Jul 2026$2.773/4$3,561$3,26864%74%+$679-$20,627429.7%$-20,993 (vs do-nothing $-18,222)
$97.5014d7 Aug 2026$3.903/4$2,507$2,21464%73%+$365-$19,988416.4%$-20,354 (vs do-nothing $-17,583)
$98.5028d21 Aug 2026$6.004/4$2,571$2,27664%74%+$433-$25,411529.4%$-24,975 (vs do-nothing $-22,204)
$9821d14 Aug 2026$4.954/4$2,829$2,53364%73%+$399-$26,031542.3%$-25,595 (vs do-nothing $-22,824)
$9828d21 Aug 2026$6.204/4$2,657$2,36163%73%+$441-$25,531531.9%$-25,095 (vs do-nothing $-22,324)
$9714d7 Aug 2026$4.103/4$2,636$2,34263%73%+$381-$20,078418.3%$-20,444 (vs do-nothing $-17,673)
$967d31 Jul 2026$2.952/4$2,529$2,23763%73%+$457-$13,815287.8%$-14,983 (vs do-nothing $-12,212)
$97.5028d21 Aug 2026$6.354/4$2,721$2,42662%73%+$425-$25,671534.8%$-25,235 (vs do-nothing $-22,464)
$9721d14 Aug 2026$5.354/4$3,057$2,76162%72%+$418-$26,271547.3%$-25,835 (vs do-nothing $-23,064)
$96.5014d7 Aug 2026$4.203/4$2,700$2,40662%72%+$328-$20,198420.8%$-20,564 (vs do-nothing $-17,793)
$9728d21 Aug 2026$6.554/4$2,807$2,51161%72%+$428-$25,791537.3%$-25,355 (vs do-nothing $-22,584)
$96.5028d21 Aug 2026$6.754/4$2,893$2,59761%72%+$429-$25,911539.8%$-25,475 (vs do-nothing $-22,704)
$9614d7 Aug 2026$4.553/4$2,925$2,63160%72%+$430-$20,243421.7%$-20,609 (vs do-nothing $-17,838)
$9621d14 Aug 2026$5.753/4$2,464$2,17160%71%+$317-$19,883414.2%$-20,249 (vs do-nothing $-17,478)
$9628d21 Aug 2026$6.954/4$2,979$2,68360%71%+$427-$26,031542.3%$-25,595 (vs do-nothing $-22,824)
$957d31 Jul 2026$3.302/4$2,829$2,53759%71%+$430-$13,945290.5%$-15,113 (vs do-nothing $-12,342)
$9514d7 Aug 2026$4.853/4$3,118$2,82458%70%+$365-$20,453426.1%$-20,819 (vs do-nothing $-18,048)
$9528d21 Aug 2026$7.504/4$3,214$2,91958%71%+$481-$26,211546.1%$-25,775 (vs do-nothing $-23,004)
$9521d14 Aug 2026$6.203/4$2,657$2,36458%70%+$331-$20,048417.7%$-20,414 (vs do-nothing $-17,643)
$9428d21 Aug 2026$7.803/4$2,507$2,21456%70%+$313-$19,868413.9%$-20,234 (vs do-nothing $-17,463)
$9421d14 Aug 2026$6.603/4$2,829$2,53556%69%+$311-$20,228421.4%$-20,594 (vs do-nothing $-17,823)
$9414d7 Aug 2026$5.203/4$3,343$3,04955%69%+$312-$20,648430.2%$-21,014 (vs do-nothing $-18,243)
$947d31 Jul 2026$3.702/4$3,171$2,88055%69%+$411-$14,065293.0%$-15,233 (vs do-nothing $-12,462)
$9328d21 Aug 2026$8.203/4$2,636$2,34254%69%+$290-$20,048417.7%$-20,414 (vs do-nothing $-17,643)
$9321d14 Aug 2026$7.053/4$3,021$2,72854%68%+$302-$20,393424.9%$-20,759 (vs do-nothing $-17,988)
$9314d7 Aug 2026$5.902/4$2,529$2,23753%68%+$310-$13,825288.0%$-14,993 (vs do-nothing $-12,222)
$9228d21 Aug 2026$8.753/4$2,812$2,51952%68%+$308-$20,183420.5%$-20,549 (vs do-nothing $-17,778)
$937d31 Jul 2026$4.202/4$3,600$3,30952%67%+$440-$14,165295.1%$-15,333 (vs do-nothing $-12,562)
$9221d14 Aug 2026$7.553/4$3,236$2,94251%67%+$303-$20,543428.0%$-20,909 (vs do-nothing $-18,138)
$9214d7 Aug 2026$6.202/4$2,657$2,36650%66%+$179-$13,965290.9%$-15,133 (vs do-nothing $-12,362)
$927d31 Jul 2026$4.702/4$4,029$3,73748%66%+$431-$14,265297.2%$-15,433 (vs do-nothing $-12,662)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2  |  2026-07-24 21:40