10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $233.00 | CC-SS: $159.70 (banked floor $155.55) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $53,000 | (ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,009/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,975 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 21 Aug 2026 · 4d | 9 × $103 | 80% | $5,265 | $3,614 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 28 Aug 2026 · 11d | 10 × $103 | 73% | $5,209 | $161 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $108 | 21 Aug | 4d | 12.2% | 91%hist 97% | 19%hist 10% | +13pp | $340 | $2,550 | -$2,715 | $51,358 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $108 12.2% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.37 mid) = $340 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $108.37) 91% EV / mo +$855 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,689/mo median; plan ~$1,149/mo after 68% keep · $11,545 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.2-5.8], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,895 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $127 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.16/sh now → $2.24 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 216 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $110 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $52 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $108.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $108): -$51,358 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,429 ($-23,454 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,368, the opportunity cost of earning $2,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,180, position total $-39,849 ($-4,874 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $106 | 21 Aug | 4d | 10.1% | 87%hist 87% | 26%hist 25% | +13pp | $460 | $3,450 | -$1,815 | $53,238 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $106 10.1% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.49 mid) = $460 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $106.50) 89% EV / mo +$911 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,106/mo median; plan ~$1,432/mo after 68% keep · $15,142 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.2-6.3], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,705 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $124 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.06/sh now → $2.17 mid-life (likely $1.94–$3.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 391 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $108 (overshoots $2.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $54 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $106.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $106): -$53,238 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,309 ($-25,334 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,248, the opportunity cost of earning $3,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,060, position total $-41,729 ($-6,754 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $103 | 21 Aug | 4d | 7.0% | 80%hist 87% | 40%hist 38% | +19pp | $702 | $5,265 | — | $50,326 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $103 7.0% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.83 mid) = $702 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,265/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $103.83) 83% EV / mo +$996 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,726/mo median; plan ~$1,854/mo after 68% keep · $18,151 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.1-5.4], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,154 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $127 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.92/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 768 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $105 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $57 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $103.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $103): -$50,326 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $185): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,396 ($-22,421 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,335, the opportunity cost of earning $5,265/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,466, position total $-42,134 ($-7,159 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $99 | 21 Aug | 4d | 2.8% | 65%hist 69% | 71%hist 64% | +31pp | $1,404 | $10,530 | +$5,265 | $53,224 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $99 2.8% OTM over spot $96.28 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $1.62 mid) = $1,404 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $100.62) 73% EV / mo +$608 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +31pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,732/mo median; plan ~$2,538/mo after 68% keep · $24,750 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.7-5.7], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$332 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $123 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.40–$3.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,467 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $101 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $61 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $100.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $99): -$53,224 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $185): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,294 ($-25,319 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,233, the opportunity cost of earning $10,530/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,364, position total $-45,032 ($-10,057 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $113 | 28 Aug | 11d | 17.4% | 90%hist 97% | 20%hist 25% | +7pp | $630 | $1,718 | -$3,491 | $46,068 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $113 17.4% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $0.70 mid) = $630 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,718/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $113.70) 91% EV / mo +$652 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,121/mo median; plan ~$762/mo after 68% keep · $8,467 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.7-6.2], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,509 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $124 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.85/sh now → $4.14 mid-life (likely $3.30–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $115 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $113 is $47 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $113.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $113): -$46,068 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-53,139 ($-18,164 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,078, the opportunity cost of earning $1,718/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,890, position total $-34,559 (+$416 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $106 | 28 Aug | 11d | 10.1% | 80%hist 85% | 42%hist 38% | +10pp | $1,224 | $3,338 | -$1,871 | $47,104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $106 10.1% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $1.45 mid) = $1,224 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,338/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $107.44) 83% EV / mo +$757 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,677/mo median; plan ~$1,140/mo after 68% keep · $12,946 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.6-5.8], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,104 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $120 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.23/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 959 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $108 (overshoots $2.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $54 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $107.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $106): -$47,104 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $185): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,174 ($-19,199 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,113, the opportunity cost of earning $3,338/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,244, position total $-38,912 ($-3,937 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $103 | 28 Aug | 11d | 7.0% | 73%hist 85% | 56%hist 44% | +15pp | $1,910 | $5,209 | — | $54,788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $103 7.0% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $2.02 mid) = $1,910 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,209/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $105.02) 78% EV / mo +$830 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,178/mo median; plan ~$1,481/mo after 68% keep · $16,795 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.3-6.1], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,605 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $120 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.92–$5.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,333 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $105 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $57 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.91 collected) or spot ≥ $105.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $103): -$54,788 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,859 ($-26,884 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,798, the opportunity cost of earning $5,209/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,610, position total $-43,279 ($-8,304 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $97 | 28 Aug | 11d | 0.7% | 55%hist 69% | 95%hist 89% | +26pp | $3,700 | $10,091 | +$4,882 | $58,998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $97 0.7% OTM over spot $96.28 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $3.90 mid) = $3,700 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $100.90) 68% EV / mo +$522 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +26pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,836/mo median; plan ~$1,929/mo after 68% keep · $21,483 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.1-5.9], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$535 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $113 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.48/sh now → $3.17 mid-life (likely $4.44–$6.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,359 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $99 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $63 below CC-SS $159.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $100.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $100.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.44 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $159.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,904 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $97): -$58,998 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,069 ($-31,094 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,061 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,008, the opportunity cost of earning $10,091/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $126.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,820, position total $-47,489 ($-12,514 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.440 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,904 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,061
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 9/10 | $5,265 | $5,268 | 80% | 83% | +$996 | -$50,326 | 95.0% | $-57,396 (vs do-nothing $-50,335) |
| $102 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 8/10 | $5,580 | $5,585 | 77% | 81% | +$891 | -$45,415 | 85.7% | $-52,484 (vs do-nothing $-45,423) |
| $101 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 7/10 | $5,775 | $5,783 | 74% | 78% | +$702 | -$40,319 | 76.1% | $-47,387 (vs do-nothing $-40,326) |
| $103 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 10/10 | $5,209 | $5,209 | 73% | 78% | +$830 | -$54,788 | 103.4% | $-61,859 (vs do-nothing $-54,798) |
| $102 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 9/10 | $5,253 | $5,255 | 70% | 76% | +$732 | -$50,002 | 94.3% | $-57,072 (vs do-nothing $-50,011) |
| $100 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 6/10 | $5,985 | $5,996 | 70% | 75% | +$614 | -$35,021 | 66.1% | $-42,088 (vs do-nothing $-35,027) |
| $102 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 10/10 | $5,250 | $5,250 | 68% | 75% | +$753 | -$54,548 | 102.9% | $-61,619 (vs do-nothing $-54,558) |
| $101 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 8/10 | $5,236 | $5,242 | 68% | 74% | +$640 | -$45,039 | 85.0% | $-52,108 (vs do-nothing $-45,047) |
| $101 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 9/10 | $5,175 | $5,178 | 65% | 74% | +$684 | -$49,723 | 93.8% | $-56,793 (vs do-nothing $-49,732) |
| $99 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 5/10 | $5,850 | $5,864 | 65% | 73% | +$338 | -$29,569 | 55.8% | $-36,635 (vs do-nothing $-29,574) |
| $100 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 7/10 | $5,155 | $5,163 | 65% | 73% | +$566 | -$39,899 | 75.3% | $-46,967 (vs do-nothing $-39,906) |
| $98.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.69 | 4/10 | $5,070 | $5,086 | 63% | 71% | +$185 | -$23,803 | 44.9% | $-30,868 (vs do-nothing $-23,807) |
| $100 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 8/10 | $5,067 | $5,072 | 63% | 73% | +$642 | -$44,719 | 84.4% | $-51,788 (vs do-nothing $-44,727) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 10/10 | $5,460 | $5,460 | 62% | 72% | +$470 | -$55,148 | 104.1% | $-62,219 (vs do-nothing $-55,158) |
| $99 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 7/10 | $5,727 | $5,735 | 62% | 71% | +$507 | -$40,389 | 76.2% | $-47,457 (vs do-nothing $-40,396) |
| $98 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 4/10 | $5,310 | $5,326 | 60% | 69% | $-94 | -$23,971 | 45.2% | $-31,036 (vs do-nothing $-23,975) |
| $99 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.00 | 8/10 | $5,333 | $5,339 | 60% | 71% | +$434 | -$45,359 | 85.6% | $-52,428 (vs do-nothing $-45,367) |
| $99 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 9/10 | $5,292 | $5,295 | 60% | 70% | +$396 | -$50,218 | 94.8% | $-57,288 (vs do-nothing $-50,227) |
| $98 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 6/10 | $5,236 | $5,247 | 58% | 69% | +$161 | -$35,099 | 66.2% | $-42,166 (vs do-nothing $-35,105) |
| $97.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 4/10 | $6,000 | $6,016 | 58% | 68% | +$32 | -$24,079 | 45.4% | $-31,144 (vs do-nothing $-24,083) |
| $98 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.40 | 7/10 | $5,133 | $5,142 | 58% | 70% | +$393 | -$40,109 | 75.7% | $-47,177 (vs do-nothing $-40,116) |
| $98 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 8/10 | $5,088 | $5,093 | 57% | 70% | +$350 | -$45,119 | 85.1% | $-52,188 (vs do-nothing $-45,127) |
| $97 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 4/10 | $6,450 | $6,466 | 55% | 67% | $-127 | -$24,219 | 45.7% | $-31,284 (vs do-nothing $-24,223) |
| $97 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 8/10 | $5,472 | $5,477 | 55% | 68% | +$320 | -$45,599 | 86.0% | $-52,668 (vs do-nothing $-45,607) |
| $97 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 7/10 | $5,600 | $5,608 | 55% | 68% | +$365 | -$40,529 | 76.5% | $-47,597 (vs do-nothing $-40,536) |
| $97 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 5/10 | $5,045 | $5,059 | 55% | 68% | +$261 | -$29,499 | 55.7% | $-36,565 (vs do-nothing $-29,504) |
| $96 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.10 | 7/10 | $5,124 | $5,132 | 53% | 67% | +$229 | -$40,319 | 76.1% | $-47,387 (vs do-nothing $-40,326) |
| $96.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.39 | 3/10 | $5,378 | $5,397 | 53% | 65% | $-46 | -$18,242 | 34.4% | $-25,306 (vs do-nothing $-18,245) |
| $96 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.20 | 6/10 | $5,200 | $5,211 | 52% | 67% | +$254 | -$35,099 | 66.2% | $-42,166 (vs do-nothing $-35,105) |
| $96 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 5/10 | $5,386 | $5,400 | 51% | 66% | $-10 | -$29,874 | 56.4% | $-36,940 (vs do-nothing $-29,879) |
| $95 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.50 | 7/10 | $5,460 | $5,468 | 50% | 66% | +$152 | -$40,739 | 76.9% | $-47,807 (vs do-nothing $-40,746) |
| $96 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.53 | 3/10 | $5,692 | $5,712 | 50% | 64% | $-258 | -$18,350 | 34.6% | $-25,414 (vs do-nothing $-18,353) |
| $95 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.65 | 6/10 | $5,650 | $5,661 | 49% | 65% | +$208 | -$35,429 | 66.8% | $-42,496 (vs do-nothing $-35,435) |
| $95 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 5/10 | $6,000 | $6,014 | 48% | 64% | $-68 | -$30,149 | 56.9% | $-37,215 (vs do-nothing $-30,154) |
| $95 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 3/10 | $6,750 | $6,769 | 45% | 61% | $-365 | -$18,509 | 34.9% | $-25,573 (vs do-nothing $-18,512) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.