FORTRESS FIGHT: MSTR-LC180 @ $94.16

BE SS: $233.00  |  CC-SS: $147.99  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-18 03:37

MSTR-LC180BBC @ $94.16   UNDERWATER $138.84 (59.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MSTR reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 13 days. The recommended CC (6d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $233.00  |  CC-SS: $147.99 (banked floor $147.41)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $180 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $73.255/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$53,000(ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000
Normal income ref$14,169/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-30,750fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,085/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$14,169/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $53,000
ML VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $53,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $147.99 (probe: $150C 13d) brings only $231/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-17
$373
Hole (after banked)
$30,377
was $30,750 · 1% earned back
Cycles closed
3
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$147.99 → $147.41
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 34 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 47 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $135.55 (+44%) · daily UBB $106.90 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 9 contracts at $101 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,085/mo); it brings $7,380/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $97/6d for $14,200/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $108/6d (91% survival, $3,100/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $40,812 (77% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $233, recoverable in 2.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 9 contracts realizes $-27,742 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 9 × $101, 77% survival, $7,380/mo (E[net] $2,015/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 6d9 × $10177%$7,380$2,015

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $2,015/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $101 (primary), 77% survival, breach 23%, $7,380/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $105 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 23% → 14%) for $2,580/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $105 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MSTR to stay flat-to-down near term.
MSTR  spot $94.16 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield10 × $10824 Jul6d14.7%91%19%+14pp$620$3,100-$4,280$39,366
Sell 10 × $108 14.7% OTM over spot $94.16 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.68 mid)
= $620 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $108)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $108.67)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,796
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+14pp
47% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,007/mo
median; plan ~$1,364/mo after 68% keep · $13,706 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.9-5.7], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,012
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$129 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $3.05–$5.38)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $111 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10831 Jul 202610d left+$3.16/sh+$3,162
cycle +$3,782
[+$3,205…+$3,995] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$20,201 NOT
cap gain +$10,549
Max even-money escape in the band~$12414 Aug 202624d left+$1.05/sh+$1,047
cycle +$1,667
[+$435…+$1,842] · 88% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$14,570 NOT
cap gain +$16,180
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11631 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$64
cycle +$684
[-$443…+$543] · 52% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$19,464 NOT
cap gain +$11,286
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12914 Aug 202624d left-$0.07/sh-$72
cycle +$548
[-$876…+$638] · 44% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$13,244 NOT
cap gain +$17,506
budget: banked $620 debit $72 (12% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$548 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,449/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,100/mo
vs 50% target ($7,085/mo)-56%
vs normal income ($14,169/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,100/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $108 is $40 below CC-SS $147.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$39,366
… as % of IC ($53,000)74.3%
… as % of ML ($53,000)74.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-30,805
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $108.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $106.92Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$107-108.67
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $108.67
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$108.00 (1.3σ)$620$-23,362+$7,388+$600
+2.5%$110.70 (1.6σ)$-2,080$-24,742+$6,008-$2,100
+5%$113.40 (1.9σ)$-4,780$-26,122+$4,628-$4,800
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (13.4σ)$-124,380$-87,237-$56,487-$116,400
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,321
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $108): -$39,366
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,795 ($-13,045 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,386, the opportunity cost of earning $3,100/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.55 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,930, position total $-37,440 ($-6,690 vs today)
33% normal ← lean10 × $10524 Jul6d11.5%86%28%+19pp$960$4,800-$2,580$42,026
Sell 10 × $105 11.5% OTM over spot $94.16 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.99 mid)
= $960 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,800/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $105)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays ≤ $105.99)
88%
EV / mo
+$2,463
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+19pp
52% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,686/mo
median; plan ~$1,826/mo after 68% keep · $17,656 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.0-5.3], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
20%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,510
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$131 @ 87% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.91/sh now → $3.47 mid-life (likely $3.35–$5.39)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 607 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $108 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10531 Jul 202610d left+$3.02/sh+$3,022
cycle +$3,982
[+$2,977…+$3,718] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$21,468 NOT
cap gain +$9,282
Max even-money escape in the band~$12114 Aug 202624d left+$0.83/sh+$828
cycle +$1,788
[+$55…+$1,244] · 78% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$15,916 NOT
cap gain +$14,834
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11231 Jul 202610d left+$0.26/sh+$263
cycle +$1,223
[-$268…+$540] · 57% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$20,881 NOT
cap gain +$9,869
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13114 Aug 202624d left-$0.91/sh-$911
cycle +$49
[-$1,994…-$644] · 13% credit
87%
surv 85%
-$12,764 NOT
cap gain +$17,986
budget: banked $960 debit $911 (95% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,199/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,800/mo
vs 50% target ($7,085/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($14,169/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,800/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $105 is $43 below CC-SS $147.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$42,026
… as % of IC ($53,000)79.3%
… as % of ML ($53,000)79.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-30,780
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $105.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$104-105.99
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.99
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$105.00 (1.0σ)$960$-24,489+$6,261+$940
+2.5%$107.62 (1.3σ)$-1,665$-25,831+$4,919-$1,685
+5%$110.25 (1.6σ)$-4,290$-27,172+$3,578-$4,310
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (13.4σ)$-127,040$-89,897-$59,147-$119,060
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,321
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $105): -$42,026
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,455 ($-15,705 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,046, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.55 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,590, position total $-40,100 ($-9,350 vs today)
🎯 50% normal9 × $10124 Jul6d7.3%77%37%+25pp$1,476$7,380$40,812
Sell 9 × $101 7.3% OTM over spot $94.16 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.71 mid)
= $1,476 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,380/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $101)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays ≤ $102.72)
82%
EV / mo
+$2,858
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+25pp
56% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,351/mo
median; plan ~$2,279/mo after 68% keep · $21,566 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.0-5.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,458
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$127 @ 88% POP
87% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.61/sh now → $3.26 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.61)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,097 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $104 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10131 Jul 202610d left+$2.84/sh+$2,556
cycle +$4,032
[+$2,376…+$2,836] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$23,372 NOT
cap gain +$7,378
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11514 Aug 202624d left+$0.91/sh+$820
cycle +$2,296
[-$79…+$828] · 71% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$18,340 NOT
cap gain +$12,410
Max even-money escape in the band~$11714 Aug 202624d left+$0.55/sh+$496
cycle +$1,972
[-$469…+$494] · 48% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$17,685 NOT
cap gain +$13,065
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10831 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$104
cycle +$1,580
[-$546…+$89] · 31% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$22,479 NOT
cap gain +$8,271
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12714 Aug 202624d left-$1.09/sh-$980
cycle +$496
[-$2,255…-$1,062] · 3% credit
88%
surv 87%
-$14,271 NOT
cap gain +$16,479
budget: banked $1,476 debit $980 (66% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$496 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $2,443/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,380/mo
vs 50% target ($7,085/mo)+4%
vs normal income ($14,169/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,385/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $101 is $47 below CC-SS $147.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$40,812
… as % of IC ($53,000)77.0%
… as % of ML ($53,000)77.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.9 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$-27,742
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $102.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$100-102.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $102.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$101.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,476$-25,927+$4,823+$1,458
+2.5%$103.52 (≤1σ, normal week)$-796$-26,965+$3,785-$814
+5%$106.05 (1.1σ)$-3,069$-28,003+$2,747-$3,087
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (13.4σ)$-117,324$-80,979-$50,229-$110,142
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,321
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $101): -$40,812
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $225): +$2
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,239 ($-14,489 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,830, the opportunity cost of earning $7,380/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.55 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,619, position total $-40,127 ($-9,377 vs today)
100% normal10 × $9724 Jul6d3.0%63%77%+34pp$2,840$14,200+$6,820$48,146
Sell 10 × $97 3.0% OTM over spot $94.16 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.94 mid)
= $2,840 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,200/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $99.94)
72%
EV / mo
+$2,613
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+34pp
67% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~6.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$4,603/mo
median; plan ~$3,130/mo after 68% keep · $25,373 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-5.0], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
58%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$217
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$128 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.32/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $3.95–$5.95)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,731 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $100 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9731 Jul 202610d left+$2.66/sh+$2,663
cycle +$5,503
[+$2,362…+$2,695] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$23,858 NOT
cap gain +$6,892
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11014 Aug 202624d left+$0.94/sh+$941
cycle +$3,781
[-$271…+$554] · 62% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$19,301 NOT
cap gain +$11,449
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10331 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$311
cycle +$3,151
[-$489…+$48] · 28% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$23,354 NOT
cap gain +$7,396
Max even-money escape in the band~$11314 Aug 202624d left+$0.29/sh+$294
cycle +$3,134
[-$1,081…-$139] · 20% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$18,482 NOT
cap gain +$12,268
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12814 Aug 202624d left-$1.82/sh-$1,816
cycle +$1,024
[-$3,905…-$2,472]
92%
surv 91%
-$13,257 NOT
cap gain +$17,493
budget: banked $2,840 debit $1,816 (64% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,024 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,551/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,200/mo
vs 50% target ($7,085/mo)+100%
vs normal income ($14,169/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14,200/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97 is $51 below CC-SS $147.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$48,146
… as % of IC ($53,000)90.8%
… as % of ML ($53,000)90.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-30,855
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.84 collected) or spot ≥ $99.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$96-99.94
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $99.94
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,840$-26,521+$4,229+$2,820
+2.5%$99.42 (≤1σ, normal week)$415$-27,760+$2,990+$395
+5%$101.85 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,010$-29,000+$1,750-$2,030
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (13.4σ)$-133,160$-96,017-$65,267-$125,180
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,321
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $97): -$48,146
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,575 ($-21,825 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,166, the opportunity cost of earning $14,200/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.55 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,710, position total $-46,220 ($-15,470 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MSTR are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.489 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$26,321 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,409

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1016d24 Jul 2026$1.649/10$7,380$7,38577%82%+$2,858-$40,81277.0%$-45,239 (vs do-nothing $-40,830)
$1006d24 Jul 2026$1.928/10$7,680$7,68974%80%+$2,846-$36,85369.5%$-41,278 (vs do-nothing $-36,869)
$10213d31 Jul 2026$3.2010/10$7,385$7,38572%78%+$1,973-$42,78680.7%$-47,215 (vs do-nothing $-42,806)
$10113d31 Jul 2026$3.509/10$7,269$7,27470%77%+$1,849-$39,13873.8%$-43,565 (vs do-nothing $-39,156)
$996d24 Jul 2026$2.197/10$7,665$7,67970%76%+$1,779-$32,75761.8%$-37,180 (vs do-nothing $-32,771)
$98.506d24 Jul 2026$2.347/10$8,190$8,20468%75%+$1,798-$33,00262.3%$-37,425 (vs do-nothing $-33,016)
$10013d31 Jul 2026$3.858/10$7,108$7,11767%76%+$1,754-$35,30966.6%$-39,734 (vs do-nothing $-35,325)
$10120d7 Aug 2026$4.8010/10$7,200$7,20067%76%+$1,561-$42,18679.6%$-46,615 (vs do-nothing $-42,206)
$986d24 Jul 2026$2.516/10$7,530$7,54866%74%+$1,590-$28,48653.7%$-32,907 (vs do-nothing $-28,498)
$10020d7 Aug 2026$5.1010/10$7,650$7,65066%75%+$1,531-$42,88680.9%$-47,315 (vs do-nothing $-42,906)
$9913d31 Jul 2026$4.208/10$7,754$7,76365%74%+$1,815-$35,82967.6%$-40,254 (vs do-nothing $-35,845)
$97.506d24 Jul 2026$2.686/10$8,040$8,05865%73%+$1,609-$28,68454.1%$-33,105 (vs do-nothing $-28,696)
$98.5013d31 Jul 2026$4.358/10$8,031$8,04064%74%+$1,780-$36,10968.1%$-40,534 (vs do-nothing $-36,125)
Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9920d7 Aug 2026$5.459/10$7,358$7,36264%74%+$1,389-$39,18373.9%$-43,610 (vs do-nothing $-39,201)
$9927d14 Aug 2026$6.6010/10$7,333$7,33363%73%+$1,288-$42,38680.0%$-46,815 (vs do-nothing $-42,406)
$9813d31 Jul 2026$4.557/10$7,350$7,36463%73%+$1,596-$31,80560.0%$-36,228 (vs do-nothing $-31,819)
$976d24 Jul 2026$2.845/10$7,100$7,12363%72%+$1,306-$24,07345.4%$-28,492 (vs do-nothing $-24,083)
$9820d7 Aug 2026$5.809/10$7,830$7,83562%73%+$1,371-$39,76875.0%$-44,195 (vs do-nothing $-39,786)
$97.5013d31 Jul 2026$4.707/10$7,592$7,60662%73%+$1,542-$32,05060.5%$-36,473 (vs do-nothing $-32,064)
$9827d14 Aug 2026$7.0010/10$7,778$7,77861%72%+$1,319-$42,98681.1%$-47,415 (vs do-nothing $-43,006)
$96.506d24 Jul 2026$3.005/10$7,500$7,52361%72%+$1,246-$24,24345.7%$-28,662 (vs do-nothing $-24,253)
$9713d31 Jul 2026$4.907/10$7,915$7,92960%72%+$1,556-$32,26060.9%$-36,683 (vs do-nothing $-32,274)
$9720d7 Aug 2026$6.258/10$7,500$7,50960%72%+$1,296-$35,78967.5%$-40,214 (vs do-nothing $-35,805)
$9727d14 Aug 2026$7.359/10$7,350$7,35560%72%+$1,146-$39,27374.1%$-43,700 (vs do-nothing $-39,291)
$96.5013d31 Jul 2026$5.107/10$8,238$8,25259%71%+$1,558-$32,47061.3%$-36,893 (vs do-nothing $-32,484)
$966d24 Jul 2026$3.205/10$8,000$8,02359%70%+$1,260-$24,39346.0%$-28,812 (vs do-nothing $-24,403)
$9613d31 Jul 2026$5.356/10$7,408$7,42658%71%+$1,395-$27,98252.8%$-32,403 (vs do-nothing $-27,994)
$9627d14 Aug 2026$7.659/10$7,650$7,65558%71%+$1,034-$39,90375.3%$-44,330 (vs do-nothing $-39,921)
$9620d7 Aug 2026$6.658/10$7,980$7,98958%71%+$1,284-$36,26968.4%$-40,694 (vs do-nothing $-36,285)
$9527d14 Aug 2026$8.208/10$7,289$7,29856%70%+$1,023-$35,82967.6%$-40,254 (vs do-nothing $-35,845)
$9520d7 Aug 2026$7.207/10$7,560$7,57456%70%+$1,246-$32,05060.5%$-36,473 (vs do-nothing $-32,064)
$9513d31 Jul 2026$5.806/10$8,031$8,04955%70%+$1,413-$28,31253.4%$-32,733 (vs do-nothing $-28,324)
$956d24 Jul 2026$3.654/10$7,300$7,32855%69%+$1,065-$19,73537.2%$-24,151 (vs do-nothing $-19,743)
$9427d14 Aug 2026$8.658/10$7,689$7,69854%69%+$1,020-$36,26968.4%$-40,694 (vs do-nothing $-36,285)
$9420d7 Aug 2026$7.607/10$7,980$7,99454%69%+$1,186-$32,47061.3%$-36,893 (vs do-nothing $-32,484)
$9413d31 Jul 2026$6.305/10$7,269$7,29253%68%+$1,213-$23,84345.0%$-28,262 (vs do-nothing $-23,853)
$9327d14 Aug 2026$9.157/10$7,117$7,13153%69%+$913-$32,08560.5%$-36,508 (vs do-nothing $-32,099)
$946d24 Jul 2026$4.104/10$8,200$8,22852%67%+$1,033-$19,95537.7%$-24,371 (vs do-nothing $-19,963)
$9320d7 Aug 2026$8.006/10$7,200$7,21852%68%+$942-$28,19253.2%$-32,613 (vs do-nothing $-28,204)
$9313d31 Jul 2026$6.655/10$7,673$7,69650%67%+$1,037-$24,16845.6%$-28,587 (vs do-nothing $-24,178)
$936d24 Jul 2026$4.554/10$9,100$9,12848%65%+$910-$20,17538.1%$-24,591 (vs do-nothing $-20,183)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-18 03:37