FORTRESS FIGHT: MSTR-LC180 @ $94.85

BE SS: $233.00  |  CC-SS: $150.00  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-19 19:27

MSTR-LC180BBC @ $94.85   UNDERWATER $138.15 (59.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MSTR reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 12 days. The recommended CC (5d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $233.00  |  CC-SS: $150.00 (banked floor $149.43)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $180 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $73.255/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$53,000(ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000
Normal income ref$15,250/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-31,260fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,625/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$15,250/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $53,000
ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $53,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $150.00 (probe: $150C 12d) brings only $225/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-17
$373
Hole (after banked)
$30,887
was $31,260 · 1% earned back
Cycles closed
3
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$150.00 → $149.43
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 34 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 49 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $135.58 (+43%) · daily UBB $106.95 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 9 contracts at $102 / 5d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,625/mo); it brings $8,370/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $98/5d for $16,860/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $107/5d (91% survival, $4,560/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $41,805 (79% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $233, recoverable in 2.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 9 contracts realizes $-28,224 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · sell 9 × $102, 80% survival, $8,370/mo (E[net] $3,058/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 5d9 × $10280%$8,370$3,058

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 5d · E[net] $3,058/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $102 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $8,370/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $106 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 20% → 11%) for $2,910/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $106 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MSTR to stay flat-to-down near term.
MSTR  spot $94.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield10 × $10724 Jul5d12.8%91%19%+8pp$760$4,560-$3,810$42,240
Sell 10 × $107 12.8% OTM over spot $94.85 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.80 mid)
= $760 credit for the 5d cycle → $4,560/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $107)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $107.81)
92%
EV / mo
+$3,105
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,873/mo
median; plan ~$1,954/mo after 68% keep · $13,200 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,937
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$127 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.23/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.27–$5.79)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.94/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $109 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10731 Jul 202610d left+$2.95/sh+$2,947
cycle +$3,707
[+$2,662…+$3,636] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$16,618 NOT
cap gain +$14,642
Max even-money escape in the band~$12214 Aug 202624d left+$0.82/sh+$823
cycle +$1,583
[-$136…+$1,468] · 72% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$5,107 NOT
cap gain +$26,153
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11331 Jul 202610d left+$0.28/sh+$284
cycle +$1,044
[-$496…+$767] · 54% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$13,746 NOT
cap gain +$17,514
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12714 Aug 202624d left-$0.18/sh-$184
cycle +$576
[-$1,328…+$399] · 33% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$1,614 NOT
cap gain +$29,646
budget: banked $760 debit $184 (24% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$576 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,391/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,560/mo
vs 50% target ($7,625/mo)-40%
vs normal income ($15,250/mo)30% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,560/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $107 is $43 below CC-SS $150.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$42,240
… as % of IC ($53,000)79.7%
… as % of ML ($53,000)79.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-31,305
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $107.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $105.93Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$106-107.81
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $107.81
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$107.00 (1.3σ)$760$-19,565+$11,695+$740
+2.5%$109.67 (1.6σ)$-1,915$-19,832+$11,428-$1,935
+5%$112.35 (1.8σ)$-4,590$-20,100+$11,160-$4,610
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (14.6σ)$-125,240$-32,165-$905-$117,260
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,260
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,635
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$42,240
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,865 (+$7,395 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,260, the opportunity cost of earning $4,560/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,820, position total $-22,423 (+$8,837 vs today)
33% normal ← lean10 × $10624 Jul5d11.8%89%23%+10pp$910$5,460-$2,910$43,090
Sell 10 × $106 11.8% OTM over spot $94.85 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.95 mid)
= $910 credit for the 5d cycle → $5,460/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $106)
89%
Breach risk
11%
POP (stays ≤ $106.95)
91%
EV / mo
+$3,623
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
65% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,331/mo
median; plan ~$2,265/mo after 68% keep · $15,904 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,730
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$131 @ 87% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.15/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.26–$5.79)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 425 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $109 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10631 Jul 202610d left+$2.90/sh+$2,905
cycle +$3,815
[+$2,589…+$3,587] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$17,410 NOT
cap gain +$13,850
Max even-money escape in the band~$12114 Aug 202624d left+$0.75/sh+$755
cycle +$1,665
[-$205…+$1,385] · 68% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$5,925 NOT
cap gain +$25,335
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11231 Jul 202610d left+$0.25/sh+$250
cycle +$1,160
[-$552…+$691] · 50% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$14,530 NOT
cap gain +$16,730
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13114 Aug 202624d left-$0.82/sh-$819
cycle +$91
[-$2,083…-$312] · 19% credit
87%
surv 85%
+$1,501 SAFE
cap gain +$32,761
budget: banked $910 debit $819 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,526/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,460/mo
vs 50% target ($7,625/mo)-28%
vs normal income ($15,250/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,460/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $106 is $44 below CC-SS $150.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$43,090
… as % of IC ($53,000)81.3%
… as % of ML ($53,000)81.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-31,300
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $106.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $104.94Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$105-106.95
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $106.95
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$106.00 (1.2σ)$910$-20,315+$10,945+$890
+2.5%$108.65 (1.5σ)$-1,740$-20,580+$10,680-$1,760
+5%$111.30 (1.7σ)$-4,390$-20,845+$10,415-$4,410
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (14.6σ)$-126,090$-33,015-$1,755-$118,110
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,260
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,635
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $106): -$43,090
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,715 (+$6,545 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,110, the opportunity cost of earning $5,460/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,670, position total $-23,273 (+$7,987 vs today)
🎯 50% normal9 × $10224 Jul5d7.5%80%29%+18pp$1,395$8,370$41,805
Sell 9 × $102 7.5% OTM over spot $94.85 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $1.65 mid)
= $1,395 credit for the 5d cycle → $8,370/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $102)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $103.65)
84%
EV / mo
+$4,292
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+18pp
72% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$4,125/mo
median; plan ~$2,805/mo after 68% keep · $17,240 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
29%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,679
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$127 @ 88% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.55–$5.71)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $104 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10231 Jul 202610d left+$2.74/sh+$2,464
cycle +$3,859
[+$2,028…+$2,694] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$20,964 NOT
cap gain +$10,296
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11514 Aug 202624d left+$0.85/sh+$763
cycle +$2,158
[-$291…+$878] · 63% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$10,830 NOT
cap gain +$20,430
Max even-money escape in the band~$11714 Aug 202624d left+$0.49/sh+$443
cycle +$1,838
[-$640…+$549] · 46% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$9,350 NOT
cap gain +$21,910
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10831 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$105
cycle +$1,500
[-$739…+$163] · 33% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$17,788 NOT
cap gain +$13,472
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12714 Aug 202624d left-$1.01/sh-$912
cycle +$483
[-$2,243…-$891] · 5% credit
88%
surv 86%
-$1,705 NOT
cap gain +$29,555
budget: banked $1,395 debit $912 (65% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$483 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $2,703/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,370/mo
vs 50% target ($7,625/mo)+10%
vs normal income ($15,250/mo)55% covered
Net income (after hedge)$8,375/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $102 is $48 below CC-SS $150.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$41,805
… as % of IC ($53,000)78.9%
… as % of ML ($53,000)78.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.7 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$-28,224
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $103.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $100.98Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$101-103.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $103.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$102.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,395$-23,428+$7,832+$1,377
+2.5%$104.55 (1.0σ)$-900$-23,428+$7,832-$918
+5%$107.10 (1.3σ)$-3,195$-23,428+$7,832-$3,213
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (14.6σ)$-116,505$-24,228+$7,032-$109,323
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,260
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,635
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $102): -$41,805
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $225): +$2
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,428 (+$7,832 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,823, the opportunity cost of earning $8,370/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,827, position total $-23,428 (+$7,832 vs today)
100% normal10 × $9824 Jul5d3.3%66%71%+26pp$2,810$16,860+$8,490$49,190
Sell 10 × $98 3.3% OTM over spot $94.85 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $2.87 mid)
= $2,810 credit for the 5d cycle → $16,860/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $98)
66%
Breach risk
34%
POP (stays ≤ $100.87)
76%
EV / mo
+$6,599
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+26pp
77% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$6,188/mo
median; plan ~$4,208/mo after 68% keep · $20,084 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
53%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$389
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$128 @ 91% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.52/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.92–$6.10)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,577 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $100 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9831 Jul 202610d left+$2.57/sh+$2,575
cycle +$5,385
[+$1,924…+$2,520] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$23,040 NOT
cap gain +$8,220
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10914 Aug 202624d left+$1.20/sh+$1,201
cycle +$4,011
[-$223…+$914] · 67% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$14,379 NOT
cap gain +$16,881
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10331 Jul 202610d left+$0.56/sh+$559
cycle +$3,369
[-$467…+$332] · 48% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$20,421 NOT
cap gain +$10,839
Max even-money escape in the band~$11314 Aug 202624d left+$0.25/sh+$247
cycle +$3,057
[-$1,372…-$102] · 21% credit
81%
surv 78%
-$11,733 NOT
cap gain +$19,527
SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12814 Aug 202624d left-$1.90/sh-$1,900
cycle +$910
[-$4,131…-$2,457]
91%
surv 91%
-$380 NOT
cap gain +$30,880
budget: banked $2,810 debit $1,900 (68% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$910 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,623/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$16,860/mo
vs 50% target ($7,625/mo)+121%
vs normal income ($15,250/mo)111% covered
Net income (after hedge)$16,860/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $98 is $52 below CC-SS $150.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$49,190
… as % of IC ($53,000)92.8%
… as % of ML ($53,000)92.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-31,320
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.81 collected) or spot ≥ $100.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $106.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $97.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$97-100.87
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.87
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$98.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,810$-25,615+$5,645+$2,790
+2.5%$100.45 (≤1σ, normal week)$360$-25,860+$5,400+$340
+5%$102.90 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,090$-26,105+$5,155-$2,110
SS (= V-bounce)$233.00 (14.6σ)$-132,190$-39,115-$7,855-$124,210
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,260
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,635
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $98): -$49,190
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,815 (+$445 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,210, the opportunity cost of earning $16,860/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,770, position total $-29,373 (+$1,887 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MSTR are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback)  |  Recovery@SS: +$49,635 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $18,395

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1025d24 Jul 2026$1.559/10$8,370$8,37580%84%+$4,292-$41,80578.9%$-23,428 (vs do-nothing $-41,823)
$1015d24 Jul 2026$1.808/10$8,640$8,65077%82%+$4,149-$37,76071.2%$-19,381 (vs do-nothing $-37,776)
$1005d24 Jul 2026$2.176/10$7,812$7,83273%80%+$3,664-$28,69854.1%$-10,315 (vs do-nothing $-28,710)
$10212d31 Jul 2026$3.2510/10$8,125$8,12571%78%+$2,201-$44,75084.4%$-26,375 (vs do-nothing $-44,770)
$995d24 Jul 2026$2.436/10$8,748$8,76869%78%+$3,676-$29,14255.0%$-10,759 (vs do-nothing $-29,154)
$10112d31 Jul 2026$3.559/10$7,988$7,99269%77%+$2,027-$40,90577.2%$-22,528 (vs do-nothing $-40,923)
$98.505d24 Jul 2026$2.496/10$8,964$8,98468%77%+$3,370-$29,40655.5%$-11,023 (vs do-nothing $-29,418)
$10119d7 Aug 2026$4.8510/10$7,658$7,65866%75%+$1,597-$44,15083.3%$-25,775 (vs do-nothing $-44,170)
$10012d31 Jul 2026$4.158/10$8,300$8,31066%75%+$2,389-$36,68069.2%$-18,301 (vs do-nothing $-36,696)
$985d24 Jul 2026$2.815/10$8,430$8,45566%76%+$3,300-$24,59546.4%$-6,210 (vs do-nothing $-24,605)
$10019d7 Aug 2026$5.2510/10$8,289$8,28964%74%+$1,703-$44,75084.4%$-26,375 (vs do-nothing $-44,770)
$9912d31 Jul 2026$4.407/10$7,700$7,71564%74%+$1,942-$32,62061.5%$-14,239 (vs do-nothing $-32,634)
$97.505d24 Jul 2026$2.995/10$8,970$8,99563%75%+$3,334-$24,75546.7%$-6,370 (vs do-nothing $-24,765)
Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$98.5012d31 Jul 2026$4.557/10$7,962$7,97863%74%+$1,892-$32,86562.0%$-14,484 (vs do-nothing $-32,879)
$9919d7 Aug 2026$5.609/10$7,958$7,96362%73%+$1,526-$40,86077.1%$-22,483 (vs do-nothing $-40,878)
$975d24 Jul 2026$3.204/10$7,680$7,71061%74%+$2,738-$19,92037.6%$-1,533 (vs do-nothing $-19,928)
$9812d31 Jul 2026$4.807/10$8,400$8,41561%73%+$2,003-$33,04062.3%$-14,659 (vs do-nothing $-33,054)
$9819d7 Aug 2026$6.009/10$8,526$8,53160%72%+$1,594-$41,40078.1%$-23,023 (vs do-nothing $-41,418)
$9826d14 Aug 2026$7.0010/10$8,077$8,07760%72%+$1,253-$45,00084.9%$-26,625 (vs do-nothing $-45,020)
$97.5012d31 Jul 2026$4.857/10$8,488$8,50260%72%+$1,751-$33,35562.9%$-14,974 (vs do-nothing $-33,369)
$96.505d24 Jul 2026$3.404/10$8,160$8,19059%73%+$2,753-$20,04037.8%$-1,653 (vs do-nothing $-20,048)
$9712d31 Jul 2026$5.106/10$7,650$7,67059%72%+$1,572-$28,74054.2%$-10,357 (vs do-nothing $-28,752)
$9719d7 Aug 2026$6.408/10$8,084$8,09458%71%+$1,400-$37,28070.3%$-18,901 (vs do-nothing $-37,296)
$9726d14 Aug 2026$7.359/10$7,633$7,63858%71%+$1,060-$41,08577.5%$-22,708 (vs do-nothing $-41,103)
$96.5012d31 Jul 2026$5.306/10$7,950$7,97057%71%+$1,557-$28,92054.6%$-10,537 (vs do-nothing $-28,932)
$965d24 Jul 2026$3.604/10$8,640$8,67057%71%+$2,191-$20,16038.0%$-1,773 (vs do-nothing $-20,168)
$9626d14 Aug 2026$7.659/10$7,944$7,94957%70%+$917-$41,71578.7%$-23,338 (vs do-nothing $-41,733)
$9619d7 Aug 2026$7.007/10$7,737$7,75256%70%+$1,402-$32,90062.1%$-14,519 (vs do-nothing $-32,914)
$9612d31 Jul 2026$5.556/10$8,325$8,34556%70%+$1,605-$29,07054.8%$-10,687 (vs do-nothing $-29,082)
$9526d14 Aug 2026$8.209/10$8,515$8,52055%69%+$1,010-$42,12079.5%$-23,743 (vs do-nothing $-42,138)
$9519d7 Aug 2026$7.407/10$8,179$8,19454%69%+$1,328-$33,32062.9%$-14,939 (vs do-nothing $-33,334)
$9512d31 Jul 2026$6.105/10$7,625$7,65054%69%+$1,448-$24,45046.1%$-6,065 (vs do-nothing $-24,460)
$9426d14 Aug 2026$8.508/10$7,846$7,85653%69%+$728-$38,00071.7%$-19,621 (vs do-nothing $-38,016)
$955d24 Jul 2026$4.104/10$9,840$9,87053%70%+$2,851-$20,36038.4%$-1,973 (vs do-nothing $-20,368)
$9419d7 Aug 2026$7.857/10$8,676$8,69152%68%+$1,280-$33,70563.6%$-15,324 (vs do-nothing $-33,719)
$9326d14 Aug 2026$9.158/10$8,446$8,45651%68%+$860-$38,28072.2%$-19,901 (vs do-nothing $-38,296)
$9412d31 Jul 2026$6.505/10$8,125$8,15051%68%+$1,330-$24,75046.7%$-6,365 (vs do-nothing $-24,760)
$9319d7 Aug 2026$8.356/10$7,911$7,93150%67%+$1,077-$29,19055.1%$-10,807 (vs do-nothing $-29,202)
$945d24 Jul 2026$4.503/10$8,100$8,13548%67%+$1,550-$15,45029.2%$2,939 (vs do-nothing $-15,456)
$9312d31 Jul 2026$7.005/10$8,750$8,77548%67%+$1,294-$25,00047.2%$-6,615 (vs do-nothing $-25,010)
$935d24 Jul 2026$4.903/10$8,820$8,85543%66%+$1,655-$15,63029.5%$2,759 (vs do-nothing $-15,636)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-19 19:27