10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $233.00 | CC-SS: $153.17 (banked floor $152.59) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $53,000 | (ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,912/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,770 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 9 × $108 | 86% | $6,120 | $2,107 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $110 | 79% | $6,210 | $1,335 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $111 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 92% | 17% | +8pp | $405 | $4,050 | -$2,070 | $37,545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $111 12.3% OTM over spot $98.84 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.49 mid) = $405 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $111.49) 93% EV / mo +$2,439 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,708/mo median; plan ~$1,842/mo after 68% keep · $9,054 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,099 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $137 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.93/sh now → $2.78 mid-life (likely $2.42–$4.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 250 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $114 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $42 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $111.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $111): -$37,545 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $195): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,420 (+$11,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,554, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,106, position total $-19,420 (+$11,350 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $110 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.3% | 90% | 20% | +11pp | $520 | $5,200 | -$920 | $42,647 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $110 11.3% OTM over spot $98.84 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.55 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $110.55) 91% EV / mo +$2,900 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,335/mo median; plan ~$2,268/mo after 68% keep · $12,822 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,223 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $136 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.88/sh now → $2.74 mid-life (likely $2.56–$4.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $113 (overshoots $2.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $43 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $110.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$42,647 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,523 (+$6,247 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,657, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,270, position total $-22,585 (+$8,185 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $108 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.3% | 86% | 17% | +11pp | $612 | $6,120 | — | $40,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $108 9.3% OTM over spot $98.84 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.78 mid) = $612 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $108.78) 88% EV / mo +$2,727 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,390/mo median; plan ~$2,305/mo after 68% keep · $14,976 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.9], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,786 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $134 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.66 mid-life (likely $2.53–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 502 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $111 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $45 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $108.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $108): -$40,038 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $195): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,913 (+$8,857 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,047, the opportunity cost of earning $6,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,599, position total $-21,913 (+$8,857 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $105 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 78% | 45% | +16pp | $1,210 | $12,100 | +$5,980 | $46,957 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $105 6.2% OTM over spot $98.84 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.25 mid) = $1,210 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $106.25) 82% EV / mo +$4,422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,721/mo median; plan ~$3,890/mo after 68% keep · $14,200 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,339 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $136 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.60/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.84–$5.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 853 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $108 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $48 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.21 collected) or spot ≥ $106.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $105): -$46,957 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,833 (+$1,937 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,967, the opportunity cost of earning $12,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,580, position total $-26,895 (+$3,875 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $119 | 31 Jul | 10d | 20.4% | 90% | 21% | +6pp | $830 | $2,490 | -$3,720 | $33,337 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $119 20.4% OTM over spot $98.84 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.94 mid) = $830 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $119) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $119.94) 91% EV / mo +$1,004 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,556/mo median; plan ~$1,058/mo after 68% keep · $7,225 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,512 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $130 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.55/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $4.35–$7.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 444 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $122 (overshoots $3.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $119 is $34 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $119.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $119)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $119): -$33,337 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,213 (+$15,557 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,347, the opportunity cost of earning $2,490/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,960, position total $-13,275 (+$17,495 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $114 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.3% | 85% | 32% | +7pp | $1,390 | $4,170 | -$2,040 | $37,777 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $114 15.3% OTM over spot $98.84 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.50 mid) = $1,390 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,170/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $115.50) 87% EV / mo +$1,485 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,326/mo median; plan ~$1,582/mo after 68% keep · $9,743 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,596 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $130 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.05/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $4.77–$7.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 666 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $117 (overshoots $3.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $39 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $115.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $114): -$37,777 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,653 (+$11,117 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,787, the opportunity cost of earning $4,170/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,400, position total $-17,715 (+$13,055 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $110 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.3% | 79% | 34% | +9pp | $2,070 | $6,210 | — | $41,097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $110 11.3% OTM over spot $98.84 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.12 mid) = $2,070 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $112.12) 82% EV / mo +$1,895 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,126/mo median; plan ~$2,125/mo after 68% keep · $13,018 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,640 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $126 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.66/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $4.78–$7.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,035 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $113 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $43 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $112.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$41,097 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,973 (+$7,797 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,107, the opportunity cost of earning $6,210/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,720, position total $-21,035 (+$9,735 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $102 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.2% | 61% | 82% | +13pp | $4,050 | $12,150 | +$5,940 | $47,117 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $102 3.2% OTM over spot $98.84 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.20 mid) = $4,050 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $106.20) 71% EV / mo +$1,514 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,500/mo median; plan ~$3,060/mo after 68% keep · $13,710 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$129 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $128 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.91/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $5.61–$7.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,005 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $105 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $51 below CC-SS $153.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $106.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,894 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $102): -$47,117 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,993 (+$1,777 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,134 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,127, the opportunity cost of earning $12,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,740, position total $-27,055 (+$3,715 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$48,894 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $18,134
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $108 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 9/10 | $6,120 | $6,123 | 86% | 88% | +$2,727 | -$40,038 | 75.5% | $-21,913 (vs do-nothing $-40,047) |
| $107 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 8/10 | $6,720 | $6,726 | 85% | 88% | +$3,525 | -$36,261 | 68.4% | $-18,135 (vs do-nothing $-36,269) |
| $106 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 7/10 | $6,930 | $6,939 | 82% | 85% | +$3,254 | -$32,324 | 61.0% | $-14,197 (vs do-nothing $-32,331) |
| $110 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 10/10 | $6,210 | $6,210 | 79% | 82% | +$1,895 | -$41,097 | 77.5% | $-22,973 (vs do-nothing $-41,107) |
| $105 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 5/10 | $6,050 | $6,065 | 78% | 82% | +$2,211 | -$23,478 | 44.3% | $-5,349 (vs do-nothing $-23,483) |
| $109 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 9/10 | $5,994 | $5,997 | 77% | 81% | +$1,627 | -$37,752 | 71.2% | $-19,627 (vs do-nothing $-37,761) |
| $104 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 5/10 | $7,100 | $7,115 | 75% | 81% | +$2,719 | -$23,873 | 45.0% | $-5,744 (vs do-nothing $-23,878) |
| $108 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 9/10 | $6,480 | $6,483 | 75% | 80% | +$1,573 | -$38,490 | 72.6% | $-20,365 (vs do-nothing $-38,499) |
| $107 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 8/10 | $6,336 | $6,342 | 73% | 78% | +$1,442 | -$34,821 | 65.7% | $-16,695 (vs do-nothing $-34,829) |
| $108 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 10/10 | $6,265 | $6,265 | 71% | 77% | +$1,049 | -$41,617 | 78.5% | $-23,493 (vs do-nothing $-41,627) |
| $103 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 4/10 | $6,800 | $6,818 | 71% | 78% | +$2,353 | -$19,387 | 36.6% | $-1,257 (vs do-nothing $-19,391) |
| $106 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 7/10 | $6,195 | $6,204 | 71% | 77% | +$1,396 | -$30,952 | 58.4% | $-12,825 (vs do-nothing $-30,959) |
| $107 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 10/10 | $6,529 | $6,529 | 70% | 76% | +$846 | -$42,467 | 80.1% | $-24,343 (vs do-nothing $-42,477) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 7/10 | $6,510 | $6,519 | 69% | 76% | +$1,139 | -$31,547 | 59.5% | $-13,420 (vs do-nothing $-31,554) |
| $106 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 9/10 | $6,512 | $6,515 | 68% | 75% | +$943 | -$38,760 | 73.1% | $-20,635 (vs do-nothing $-38,769) |
| $107 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.10 | 10/10 | $6,375 | $6,375 | 68% | 75% | +$928 | -$41,067 | 77.5% | $-22,943 (vs do-nothing $-41,077) |
| $102 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 3/10 | $6,000 | $6,021 | 67% | 75% | +$1,817 | -$14,750 | 27.8% | $3,381 (vs do-nothing $-14,753) |
| $106 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 10/10 | $6,500 | $6,500 | 66% | 74% | +$662 | -$41,967 | 79.2% | $-23,843 (vs do-nothing $-41,977) |
| $104 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 6/10 | $6,030 | $6,042 | 66% | 74% | +$887 | -$27,490 | 51.9% | $-9,362 (vs do-nothing $-27,496) |
| $105 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 8/10 | $6,424 | $6,430 | 66% | 74% | +$1,038 | -$34,893 | 65.8% | $-16,767 (vs do-nothing $-34,901) |
| $105 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 9/10 | $6,131 | $6,134 | 65% | 73% | +$505 | -$38,445 | 72.5% | $-20,320 (vs do-nothing $-38,454) |
| $104 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 8/10 | $6,776 | $6,782 | 64% | 73% | +$923 | -$35,493 | 67.0% | $-17,367 (vs do-nothing $-35,501) |
| $103 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 6/10 | $6,750 | $6,762 | 64% | 73% | +$1,016 | -$27,850 | 52.5% | $-9,722 (vs do-nothing $-27,856) |
| $104 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 9/10 | $6,581 | $6,584 | 63% | 73% | +$563 | -$38,985 | 73.6% | $-20,860 (vs do-nothing $-38,994) |
| $103 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 7/10 | $6,485 | $6,494 | 62% | 72% | +$924 | -$31,442 | 59.3% | $-13,315 (vs do-nothing $-31,449) |
| $101 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 3/10 | $6,840 | $6,861 | 62% | 72% | +$1,400 | -$14,966 | 28.2% | $3,165 (vs do-nothing $-14,969) |
| $103 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.25 | 8/10 | $6,250 | $6,256 | 62% | 72% | +$533 | -$35,133 | 66.3% | $-17,007 (vs do-nothing $-35,141) |
| $102 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 5/10 | $6,075 | $6,090 | 61% | 71% | +$757 | -$23,558 | 44.4% | $-5,429 (vs do-nothing $-23,563) |
| $102 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 6/10 | $5,982 | $5,994 | 60% | 71% | +$812 | -$27,310 | 51.5% | $-9,182 (vs do-nothing $-27,316) |
| $102 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 8/10 | $6,600 | $6,606 | 60% | 71% | +$495 | -$35,653 | 67.3% | $-17,527 (vs do-nothing $-35,661) |
| $101 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/10 | $6,600 | $6,615 | 59% | 70% | +$695 | -$23,883 | 45.1% | $-5,754 (vs do-nothing $-23,888) |
| $101 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 6/10 | $6,088 | $6,100 | 58% | 70% | +$488 | -$27,850 | 52.5% | $-9,722 (vs do-nothing $-27,856) |
| $100 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 3/10 | $7,920 | $7,941 | 57% | 70% | +$1,569 | -$15,158 | 28.6% | $2,973 (vs do-nothing $-15,161) |
| $100 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.45 | 6/10 | $6,829 | $6,841 | 56% | 69% | +$770 | -$28,030 | 52.9% | $-9,902 (vs do-nothing $-28,036) |
| $100 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 5/10 | $7,275 | $7,290 | 56% | 69% | +$734 | -$24,158 | 45.6% | $-6,029 (vs do-nothing $-24,163) |
| $99 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 5/10 | $5,956 | $5,971 | 54% | 68% | +$500 | -$23,708 | 44.7% | $-5,579 (vs do-nothing $-23,713) |
| $99 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/10 | $6,480 | $6,498 | 53% | 67% | +$697 | -$19,507 | 36.8% | $-1,377 (vs do-nothing $-19,511) |
| $98.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.90 | 5/10 | $6,088 | $6,103 | 53% | 68% | +$420 | -$23,883 | 45.1% | $-5,754 (vs do-nothing $-23,888) |
| $99 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 2/10 | $6,100 | $6,124 | 52% | 67% | +$808 | -$10,223 | 19.3% | $7,909 (vs do-nothing $-10,225) |
| $98.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/10 | $6,660 | $6,678 | 52% | 67% | +$587 | -$19,647 | 37.1% | $-1,517 (vs do-nothing $-19,651) |
| $98 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 5/10 | $6,353 | $6,368 | 52% | 67% | +$466 | -$23,983 | 45.3% | $-5,854 (vs do-nothing $-23,988) |
| $97.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 5/10 | $6,618 | $6,633 | 51% | 67% | +$507 | -$24,083 | 45.4% | $-5,954 (vs do-nothing $-24,088) |
| $98 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 4/10 | $6,960 | $6,978 | 51% | 66% | +$682 | -$19,747 | 37.3% | $-1,617 (vs do-nothing $-19,751) |
| $97 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 5/10 | $6,706 | $6,721 | 50% | 66% | +$364 | -$24,283 | 45.8% | $-6,154 (vs do-nothing $-24,288) |
| $97.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 4/10 | $7,140 | $7,158 | 49% | 65% | +$555 | -$19,887 | 37.5% | $-1,757 (vs do-nothing $-19,891) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.