10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $233.00 | CC-SS: $153.44 (banked floor $152.87) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $53,000 | (ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,735/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,770 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 5 × $105 | 77% | $6,050 | $1,766 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $110 | 78% | $6,210 | $1,375 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $111 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.0% | 91% | 17% | +7pp | $405 | $4,050 | -$2,000 | $37,792 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $111 12.0% OTM over spot $99.10 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.49 mid) = $405 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $111.49) 92% EV / mo +$2,295 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,728/mo median; plan ~$1,855/mo after 68% keep · $9,606 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,281 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $132 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.22/sh now → $2.98 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 280 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $114 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $42 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $111.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $111): -$37,792 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $200): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,654 (+$11,116 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,801, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,106, position total $-19,654 (+$11,116 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 10 × $111 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.0% | 91% | 17% | +7pp | $450 | $4,500 | -$1,550 | $41,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $111 12.0% OTM over spot $99.10 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.49 mid) = $450 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $111.49) 92% EV / mo +$2,550 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,031/mo median; plan ~$2,061/mo after 68% keep · $9,855 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,534 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $132 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.22/sh now → $2.98 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $114 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $42 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $111.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $111): -$41,991 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,854 (+$6,916 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,001, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,340, position total $-21,889 (+$8,881 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $105 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.0% | 77% | 31% | +7pp | $605 | $6,050 | — | $23,615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 6.0% OTM over spot $99.10 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.25 mid) = $605 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $106.25) 81% EV / mo +$1,939 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,773/mo median; plan ~$1,885/mo after 68% keep · $9,981 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.0], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$762 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.87/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $3.09–$5.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $108 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $48 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.21 collected) or spot ≥ $106.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$23,615 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $200): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,474 (+$25,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,620, the opportunity cost of earning $6,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,790, position total $-13,334 (+$17,436 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $105 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.0% | 77% | 47% | +16pp | $1,210 | $12,100 | +$6,050 | $47,231 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $105 6.0% OTM over spot $99.10 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.25 mid) = $1,210 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $106.25) 81% EV / mo +$3,877 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,622/mo median; plan ~$3,823/mo after 68% keep · $13,860 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,525 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.87/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $3.04–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 920 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $108 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $48 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.21 collected) or spot ≥ $106.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $105): -$47,231 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,094 (+$1,676 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,241, the opportunity cost of earning $12,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,580, position total $-27,129 (+$3,641 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $119 | 31 Jul | 10d | 20.1% | 91% | 19% | +5pp | $830 | $2,490 | -$3,720 | $33,611 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $119 20.1% OTM over spot $99.10 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.94 mid) = $830 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $119) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $119.94) 92% EV / mo +$1,279 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,557/mo median; plan ~$1,059/mo after 68% keep · $8,227 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,378 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $130 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.36/sh now → $5.21 mid-life (likely $4.31–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 463 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $122 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $119 is $34 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $119.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $119)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $119): -$33,611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,474 (+$15,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,621, the opportunity cost of earning $2,490/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,960, position total $-13,509 (+$17,261 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $115 | 31 Jul | 10d | 16.0% | 86% | 30% | +7pp | $1,300 | $3,900 | -$2,310 | $37,141 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $115 16.0% OTM over spot $99.10 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.37 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $116.37) 87% EV / mo +$1,412 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,253/mo median; plan ~$1,532/mo after 68% keep · $9,723 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,629 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.97/sh now → $4.93 mid-life (likely $4.42–$7.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 656 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $118 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $38 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $116.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $115): -$37,141 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,004 (+$11,766 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,151, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,490, position total $-17,039 (+$13,731 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $110 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.0% | 78% | 35% | +9pp | $2,070 | $6,210 | — | $41,371 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $110 11.0% OTM over spot $99.10 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.12 mid) = $2,070 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $112.12) 82% EV / mo +$1,724 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,169/mo median; plan ~$2,155/mo after 68% keep · $12,691 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,522 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $126 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.49/sh now → $4.59 mid-life (likely $4.80–$7.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,053 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $113 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $43 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $112.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$41,371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,234 (+$7,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,381, the opportunity cost of earning $6,210/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,720, position total $-21,269 (+$9,501 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $102 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.9% | 61% | 83% | +14pp | $4,050 | $12,150 | +$5,940 | $47,391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $102 2.9% OTM over spot $99.10 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.20 mid) = $4,050 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $106.20) 71% EV / mo +$1,180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,353/mo median; plan ~$2,960/mo after 68% keep · $12,614 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$25 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $133 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.76/sh now → $4.07 mid-life (likely $5.51–$7.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,039 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $105 (overshoots $2.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $51 below CC-SS $153.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $106.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,907 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $102): -$47,391 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,254 (+$1,516 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,401, the opportunity cost of earning $12,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,740, position total $-27,289 (+$3,481 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$48,907 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $18,147
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 10/10 | $6,210 | $6,210 | 78% | 82% | +$1,724 | -$41,371 | 78.1% | $-23,234 (vs do-nothing $-41,381) |
| $105 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 5/10 | $6,050 | $6,065 | 77% | 81% | +$1,939 | -$23,615 | 44.6% | $-5,474 (vs do-nothing $-23,620) |
| $109 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 9/10 | $5,994 | $5,997 | 76% | 81% | +$1,458 | -$37,999 | 71.7% | $-19,861 (vs do-nothing $-38,008) |
| $108 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 9/10 | $6,480 | $6,483 | 74% | 79% | +$1,389 | -$38,737 | 73.1% | $-20,599 (vs do-nothing $-38,746) |
| $109 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 10/10 | $5,912 | $5,912 | 73% | 78% | +$990 | -$41,091 | 77.5% | $-22,954 (vs do-nothing $-41,101) |
| $107 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 8/10 | $6,336 | $6,342 | 72% | 78% | +$1,263 | -$35,041 | 66.1% | $-16,902 (vs do-nothing $-35,049) |
| $108 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 10/10 | $6,265 | $6,265 | 71% | 77% | +$902 | -$41,891 | 79.0% | $-23,754 (vs do-nothing $-41,901) |
| $106 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 7/10 | $6,195 | $6,204 | 70% | 77% | +$1,225 | -$31,144 | 58.8% | $-13,004 (vs do-nothing $-31,151) |
| $107 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 9/10 | $5,876 | $5,879 | 69% | 76% | +$621 | -$38,467 | 72.6% | $-20,329 (vs do-nothing $-38,476) |
| $105 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 7/10 | $6,510 | $6,519 | 68% | 75% | +$954 | -$31,739 | 59.9% | $-13,599 (vs do-nothing $-31,746) |
| $106 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 9/10 | $6,512 | $6,515 | 68% | 75% | +$794 | -$39,007 | 73.6% | $-20,869 (vs do-nothing $-39,016) |
| $105 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 8/10 | $6,424 | $6,430 | 66% | 74% | +$897 | -$35,113 | 66.3% | $-16,974 (vs do-nothing $-35,121) |
| $104 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 6/10 | $6,030 | $6,042 | 66% | 74% | +$715 | -$27,654 | 52.2% | $-9,514 (vs do-nothing $-27,660) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 7/10 | $5,929 | $5,938 | 64% | 73% | +$677 | -$31,249 | 59.0% | $-13,109 (vs do-nothing $-31,256) |
| $103 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 6/10 | $6,750 | $6,762 | 63% | 72% | +$829 | -$28,014 | 52.9% | $-9,874 (vs do-nothing $-28,020) |
| $103 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 7/10 | $6,485 | $6,494 | 62% | 72% | +$786 | -$31,634 | 59.7% | $-13,494 (vs do-nothing $-31,641) |
| $102 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 5/10 | $6,075 | $6,090 | 61% | 71% | +$590 | -$23,695 | 44.7% | $-5,554 (vs do-nothing $-23,700) |
| $102 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 6/10 | $5,982 | $5,994 | 60% | 71% | +$687 | -$27,474 | 51.8% | $-9,334 (vs do-nothing $-27,480) |
| $101 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/10 | $6,600 | $6,615 | 58% | 69% | +$516 | -$24,020 | 45.3% | $-5,879 (vs do-nothing $-24,025) |
| $101 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 6/10 | $6,088 | $6,100 | 58% | 70% | +$355 | -$28,014 | 52.9% | $-9,874 (vs do-nothing $-28,020) |
| $100 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.45 | 6/10 | $6,829 | $6,841 | 56% | 69% | +$631 | -$28,194 | 53.2% | $-10,054 (vs do-nothing $-28,200) |
| $100 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 5/10 | $7,275 | $7,290 | 55% | 68% | +$542 | -$24,295 | 45.8% | $-6,154 (vs do-nothing $-24,300) |
| $99 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.85 | 6/10 | $5,888 | $5,900 | 54% | 68% | +$206 | -$27,954 | 52.7% | $-9,814 (vs do-nothing $-27,960) |
| $99 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 5/10 | $5,956 | $5,971 | 54% | 68% | +$378 | -$23,845 | 45.0% | $-5,704 (vs do-nothing $-23,850) |
| $99 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/10 | $6,480 | $6,498 | 53% | 67% | +$534 | -$19,616 | 37.0% | $-1,474 (vs do-nothing $-19,620) |
| $98 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 6/10 | $6,338 | $6,350 | 52% | 67% | +$300 | -$28,194 | 53.2% | $-10,054 (vs do-nothing $-28,200) |
| $98.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.90 | 5/10 | $6,088 | $6,103 | 52% | 67% | +$295 | -$24,020 | 45.3% | $-5,879 (vs do-nothing $-24,025) |
| $98 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 5/10 | $6,353 | $6,368 | 51% | 67% | +$339 | -$24,120 | 45.5% | $-5,979 (vs do-nothing $-24,125) |
| $98.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/10 | $6,660 | $6,678 | 51% | 66% | +$418 | -$19,756 | 37.3% | $-1,614 (vs do-nothing $-19,760) |
| $97.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 5/10 | $6,618 | $6,633 | 50% | 66% | +$376 | -$24,220 | 45.7% | $-6,079 (vs do-nothing $-24,225) |
| $98 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 4/10 | $6,960 | $6,978 | 50% | 65% | +$412 | -$19,856 | 37.5% | $-1,714 (vs do-nothing $-19,860) |
| $97.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 4/10 | $7,140 | $7,158 | 48% | 65% | +$276 | -$19,996 | 37.7% | $-1,854 (vs do-nothing $-20,000) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.