10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $233.00 | CC-SS: $153.74 (banked floor $153.16) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $53,000 | (ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,382/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,770 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 10 × $109 | 88% | $5,900 | $2,313 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $110 | 78% | $6,210 | $1,387 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $112 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.7% | 94% | 13% | +8pp | $380 | $3,800 | -$2,100 | $41,356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $112 12.7% OTM over spot $99.38 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $380 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $112.42) 94% EV / mo +$2,668 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,699/mo median; plan ~$1,835/mo after 68% keep · $9,945 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,282 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $138 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.76/sh now → $2.66 mid-life (likely $2.56–$4.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 250 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $115 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $42 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $112.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $112): -$41,356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,206 (+$7,564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,366, the opportunity cost of earning $3,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,410, position total $-21,211 (+$9,559 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $110 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.7% | 90% | 19% | +12pp | $520 | $5,200 | -$700 | $43,216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $110 10.7% OTM over spot $99.38 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.55 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $110.55) 92% EV / mo +$3,092 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,372/mo median; plan ~$2,293/mo after 68% keep · $13,464 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,067 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $136 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.66/sh now → $2.59 mid-life (likely $2.27–$4.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $113 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $44 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $110.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$43,216 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,066 (+$5,704 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,226, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,270, position total $-23,071 (+$7,699 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $109 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.7% | 88% | 14% | +8pp | $590 | $5,900 | — | $44,146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $109 9.7% OTM over spot $99.38 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.66 mid) = $590 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $109) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $109.66) 90% EV / mo +$3,070 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,621/mo median; plan ~$2,462/mo after 68% keep · $12,843 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,960 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $135 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.45–$4.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 422 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $112 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $109 is $45 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $109.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $109): -$44,146 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,996 (+$4,774 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,156, the opportunity cost of earning $5,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,200, position total $-24,001 (+$6,769 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $105 | 24 Jul | 3d | 5.7% | 76% | 49% | +17pp | $1,210 | $12,100 | +$6,200 | $47,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $105 5.7% OTM over spot $99.38 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.25 mid) = $1,210 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $106.25) 80% EV / mo +$3,259 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,439/mo median; plan ~$3,698/mo after 68% keep · $14,301 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,194 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $136 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.40/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.72–$4.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 950 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $108 (overshoots $2.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $49 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.21 collected) or spot ≥ $106.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $105): -$47,526 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,376 (+$1,394 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,536, the opportunity cost of earning $12,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,580, position total $-27,381 (+$3,389 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $120 | 31 Jul | 10d | 20.7% | 90% | 20% | +4pp | $800 | $2,400 | -$3,810 | $32,936 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $120 20.7% OTM over spot $99.38 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.90 mid) = $800 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $120.89) 91% EV / mo +$945 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,571/mo median; plan ~$1,068/mo after 68% keep · $6,342 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,357 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.29/sh now → $5.16 mid-life (likely $4.18–$6.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $123 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $34 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $120.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $120): -$32,936 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,786 (+$15,984 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,946, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,990, position total $-12,791 (+$17,979 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $115 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.7% | 85% | 31% | +7pp | $1,300 | $3,900 | -$2,310 | $37,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $115 15.7% OTM over spot $99.38 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.37 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $116.37) 87% EV / mo +$1,296 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,253/mo median; plan ~$1,532/mo after 68% keep · $9,371 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,516 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.81/sh now → $4.82 mid-life (likely $4.34–$6.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 668 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $118 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $39 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $116.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $115): -$37,436 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,286 (+$11,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,446, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,490, position total $-17,291 (+$13,479 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $110 | 31 Jul | 10d | 10.7% | 78% | 36% | +10pp | $2,070 | $6,210 | — | $41,666 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $110 10.7% OTM over spot $99.38 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.12 mid) = $2,070 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $112.12) 81% EV / mo +$1,535 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,171/mo median; plan ~$2,156/mo after 68% keep · $11,334 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,417 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.34/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $4.69–$7.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,075 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $113 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $44 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $112.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$41,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,516 (+$7,254 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,676, the opportunity cost of earning $6,210/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,720, position total $-21,521 (+$9,249 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $102 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.6% | 60% | 85% | +13pp | $4,050 | $12,150 | +$5,940 | $47,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $102 2.6% OTM over spot $99.38 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.20 mid) = $4,050 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $106.20) 70% EV / mo +$814 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,278/mo median; plan ~$2,909/mo after 68% keep · $12,619 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$68 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $133 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.63/sh now → $3.98 mid-life (likely $5.40–$7.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,075 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $105 (overshoots $2.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $52 below CC-SS $153.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $106.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $153.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $102): -$47,686 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,536 (+$1,234 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $18,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,696, the opportunity cost of earning $12,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,740, position total $-27,541 (+$3,229 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$48,920 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $18,160
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $109 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 10/10 | $5,900 | $5,900 | 88% | 90% | +$3,070 | -$44,146 | 83.3% | $-25,996 (vs do-nothing $-44,156) |
| $110 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 10/10 | $6,210 | $6,210 | 78% | 81% | +$1,535 | -$41,666 | 78.6% | $-23,516 (vs do-nothing $-41,676) |
| $105 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 5/10 | $6,050 | $6,065 | 76% | 80% | +$1,630 | -$23,763 | 44.8% | $-5,608 (vs do-nothing $-23,768) |
| $109 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 9/10 | $5,994 | $5,997 | 76% | 80% | +$1,272 | -$38,264 | 72.2% | $-20,113 (vs do-nothing $-38,273) |
| $108 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 8/10 | $5,760 | $5,766 | 74% | 79% | +$1,054 | -$34,669 | 65.4% | $-16,516 (vs do-nothing $-34,677) |
| $109 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 10/10 | $5,912 | $5,912 | 72% | 78% | +$840 | -$41,386 | 78.1% | $-23,236 (vs do-nothing $-41,396) |
| $107 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 8/10 | $6,336 | $6,342 | 72% | 77% | +$1,065 | -$35,277 | 66.6% | $-17,124 (vs do-nothing $-35,285) |
| $108 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 10/10 | $6,265 | $6,265 | 70% | 77% | +$742 | -$42,186 | 79.6% | $-24,036 (vs do-nothing $-42,196) |
| $106 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 7/10 | $6,195 | $6,204 | 70% | 76% | +$1,037 | -$31,350 | 59.2% | $-13,197 (vs do-nothing $-31,357) |
| $107 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 9/10 | $5,876 | $5,879 | 69% | 76% | +$467 | -$38,732 | 73.1% | $-20,581 (vs do-nothing $-38,741) |
| $108 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 10/10 | $5,938 | $5,938 | 68% | 75% | +$492 | -$40,986 | 77.3% | $-22,836 (vs do-nothing $-40,996) |
| $105 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 7/10 | $6,510 | $6,519 | 67% | 74% | +$749 | -$31,945 | 60.3% | $-13,792 (vs do-nothing $-31,952) |
| $107 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.10 | 9/10 | $5,738 | $5,740 | 67% | 74% | +$491 | -$37,472 | 70.7% | $-19,321 (vs do-nothing $-37,481) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $106 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 8/10 | $5,788 | $5,794 | 67% | 74% | +$560 | -$34,909 | 65.9% | $-16,756 (vs do-nothing $-34,917) |
| $106 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 9/10 | $5,850 | $5,853 | 65% | 73% | +$239 | -$38,282 | 72.2% | $-20,131 (vs do-nothing $-38,291) |
| $105 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 8/10 | $6,424 | $6,430 | 65% | 73% | +$743 | -$35,349 | 66.7% | $-17,196 (vs do-nothing $-35,357) |
| $104 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 6/10 | $6,030 | $6,042 | 65% | 73% | +$525 | -$27,831 | 52.5% | $-9,677 (vs do-nothing $-27,837) |
| $105 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 9/10 | $6,131 | $6,134 | 64% | 72% | +$135 | -$38,957 | 73.5% | $-20,806 (vs do-nothing $-38,966) |
| $104 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 7/10 | $5,929 | $5,938 | 63% | 73% | +$534 | -$31,455 | 59.3% | $-13,302 (vs do-nothing $-31,462) |
| $103 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 6/10 | $6,750 | $6,762 | 62% | 72% | +$625 | -$28,191 | 53.2% | $-10,037 (vs do-nothing $-28,197) |
| $104 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 8/10 | $5,850 | $5,856 | 62% | 72% | +$160 | -$35,109 | 66.2% | $-16,956 (vs do-nothing $-35,117) |
| $103 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 7/10 | $6,485 | $6,494 | 61% | 71% | +$634 | -$31,840 | 60.1% | $-13,687 (vs do-nothing $-31,847) |
| $103 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.25 | 8/10 | $6,250 | $6,256 | 61% | 71% | +$181 | -$35,589 | 67.1% | $-17,436 (vs do-nothing $-35,597) |
| $102 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 5/10 | $6,075 | $6,090 | 60% | 70% | +$407 | -$23,843 | 45.0% | $-5,688 (vs do-nothing $-23,848) |
| $102 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 6/10 | $5,982 | $5,994 | 59% | 70% | +$550 | -$27,651 | 52.2% | $-9,497 (vs do-nothing $-27,657) |
| $102 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 7/10 | $5,775 | $5,784 | 59% | 70% | +$115 | -$31,595 | 59.6% | $-13,442 (vs do-nothing $-31,602) |
| $101 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/10 | $6,600 | $6,615 | 57% | 69% | +$319 | -$24,168 | 45.6% | $-6,013 (vs do-nothing $-24,173) |
| $101 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.95 | 7/10 | $6,081 | $6,090 | 57% | 69% | +$279 | -$32,050 | 60.5% | $-13,897 (vs do-nothing $-32,057) |
| $101 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 6/10 | $6,088 | $6,100 | 57% | 69% | +$211 | -$28,191 | 53.2% | $-10,037 (vs do-nothing $-28,197) |
| $100 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.45 | 7/10 | $6,519 | $6,528 | 55% | 69% | +$323 | -$32,400 | 61.1% | $-14,247 (vs do-nothing $-32,407) |
| $100 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.45 | 5/10 | $5,691 | $5,706 | 55% | 68% | +$399 | -$23,643 | 44.6% | $-5,488 (vs do-nothing $-23,648) |
| $99 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.85 | 6/10 | $5,888 | $5,900 | 54% | 68% | +$222 | -$28,131 | 53.1% | $-9,977 (vs do-nothing $-28,137) |
| $98 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 6/10 | $6,338 | $6,350 | 52% | 67% | +$300 | -$28,371 | 53.5% | $-10,217 (vs do-nothing $-28,377) |
| $98.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/10 | $6,660 | $6,678 | 50% | 65% | +$234 | -$19,874 | 37.5% | $-1,718 (vs do-nothing $-19,878) |
| $97.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 5/10 | $6,618 | $6,633 | 50% | 66% | +$151 | -$24,368 | 46.0% | $-6,213 (vs do-nothing $-24,373) |
| $98 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 4/10 | $6,960 | $6,978 | 49% | 65% | +$222 | -$19,974 | 37.7% | $-1,818 (vs do-nothing $-19,978) |
| $97.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 4/10 | $7,140 | $7,158 | 48% | 64% | +$80 | -$20,114 | 38.0% | $-1,958 (vs do-nothing $-20,118) |
| $98.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/10 | $6,400 | $6,424 | 47% | 64% | +$29 | -$10,407 | 19.6% | $7,751 (vs do-nothing $-10,409) |
| $98 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 2/10 | $7,000 | $7,024 | 45% | 62% | +$77 | -$10,447 | 19.7% | $7,711 (vs do-nothing $-10,449) |
| $97.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 2/10 | $7,500 | $7,524 | 42% | 61% | $-6 | -$10,497 | 19.8% | $7,661 (vs do-nothing $-10,499) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.