10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $233.00 | CC-SS: $150.06 (banked floor $149.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $53,000 | (ND $53.00 + SW $0) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,900/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,225 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 10 × $112 | 88% | $6,800 | $2,036 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $113 | 79% | $6,720 | $1,253 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $122 | 31 Jul | 10d | 20.6% | 91% | 18% | +10pp | $960 | $2,880 | -$3,920 | $27,097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $122 20.6% OTM over spot $101.19 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.05 mid) = $960 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $123.05) 92% EV / mo +$1,666 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,880/mo median; plan ~$1,279/mo after 68% keep · $10,604 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,173 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $5.05–$8.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $125 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $28 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $123.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $122): -$27,097 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,498 ($-2,273 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,107, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,010, position total $-22,583 (+$5,642 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $114 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.7% | 91% | 18% | +18pp | $470 | $4,700 | -$2,100 | $35,587 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $114 12.7% OTM over spot $101.19 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.52 mid) = $470 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $114.53) 92% EV / mo +$2,580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,148/mo median; plan ~$2,141/mo after 68% keep · $14,009 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,838 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $138 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.13–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $117 (overshoots $3.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $36 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $114.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $114): -$35,587 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,988 ($-10,763 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,597, the opportunity cost of earning $4,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,500, position total $-31,073 ($-2,848 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $112 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.7% | 88% | 15% | +21pp | $680 | $6,800 | — | $37,377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $112 10.7% OTM over spot $101.19 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.75 mid) = $680 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $112.75) 89% EV / mo +$3,370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,959/mo median; plan ~$2,692/mo after 68% keep · $19,751 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.8], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,539 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $136 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.55/sh now → $3.22 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 444 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $115 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $38 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $112.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $112): -$37,377 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,778 ($-12,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,387, the opportunity cost of earning $6,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,290, position total $-32,863 ($-4,638 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $108 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.7% | 78% | 45% | +30pp | $1,390 | $13,900 | +$7,100 | $40,667 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $108 6.7% OTM over spot $101.19 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.46 mid) = $1,390 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $109.45) 82% EV / mo +$5,396 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +30pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,686/mo median; plan ~$4,546/mo after 68% keep · $21,071 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.2-3.7], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,654 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $137 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.30/sh now → $3.04 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 868 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $111 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $42 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $109.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $108): -$40,667 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,068 ($-15,843 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,677, the opportunity cost of earning $13,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,580, position total $-36,153 ($-7,928 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $122 | 31 Jul | 10d | 20.6% | 91% | 18% | +10pp | $960 | $2,880 | -$3,840 | $27,097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $122 20.6% OTM over spot $101.19 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.05 mid) = $960 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $123.05) 92% EV / mo +$1,666 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,880/mo median; plan ~$1,279/mo after 68% keep · $10,604 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,173 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $5.05–$8.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $125 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $28 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $123.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $122): -$27,097 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,498 ($-2,273 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,107, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,010, position total $-22,583 (+$5,642 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $117 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.6% | 85% | 32% | +15pp | $1,560 | $4,680 | -$2,040 | $31,497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $117 15.6% OTM over spot $101.19 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.64 mid) = $1,560 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $117) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $118.64) 87% EV / mo +$1,853 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,428/mo median; plan ~$1,651/mo after 68% keep · $14,166 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.2], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,177 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $131 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.11/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $5.34–$8.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 710 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $120 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $117 is $33 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $118.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $117)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $117): -$31,497 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,898 ($-6,673 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,507, the opportunity cost of earning $4,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,410, position total $-26,983 (+$1,242 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $113 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.7% | 79% | 34% | +18pp | $2,240 | $6,720 | — | $34,817 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $113 11.7% OTM over spot $101.19 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.35 mid) = $2,240 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $115.35) 83% EV / mo +$2,271 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,153/mo median; plan ~$2,144/mo after 68% keep · $16,706 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.4], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,189 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $132 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.43 mid-life (likely $5.58–$8.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,007 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $116 (overshoots $3.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $113 is $37 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.24 collected) or spot ≥ $115.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $113): -$34,817 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,218 ($-9,993 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,827, the opportunity cost of earning $6,720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,730, position total $-30,303 ($-2,078 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $105 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.8% | 63% | 79% | +26pp | $4,350 | $13,050 | +$6,330 | $40,707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $105 3.8% OTM over spot $101.19 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.55 mid) = $4,350 credit for the 10d cycle → $13,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $109.55) 73% EV / mo +$2,508 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +26pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,404/mo median; plan ~$2,994/mo after 68% keep · $21,253 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$486 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $134 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.84/sh now → $4.84 mid-life (likely $6.32–$8.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,924 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $108 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $45 below CC-SS $150.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.09/sh (~25% of the $4.35 collected) or spot ≥ $109.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.51 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,824 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $105): -$40,707 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,108 ($-15,883 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,391 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,717, the opportunity cost of earning $13,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $133.97 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,620, position total $-36,193 ($-7,968 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 47 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.508 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,824 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,391
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $112 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 10/10 | $6,800 | $6,800 | 88% | 89% | +$3,370 | -$37,377 | 70.5% | $-40,778 (vs do-nothing $-37,387) |
| $111 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 8/10 | $6,560 | $6,566 | 86% | 88% | +$3,088 | -$30,590 | 57.7% | $-33,988 (vs do-nothing $-30,598) |
| $110 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 7/10 | $6,930 | $6,939 | 84% | 86% | +$3,105 | -$27,347 | 51.6% | $-30,744 (vs do-nothing $-27,354) |
| $109 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 6/10 | $7,020 | $7,032 | 81% | 84% | +$2,916 | -$23,932 | 45.2% | $-27,329 (vs do-nothing $-23,938) |
| $113 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 10/10 | $6,720 | $6,720 | 79% | 83% | +$2,271 | -$34,817 | 65.7% | $-38,218 (vs do-nothing $-34,827) |
| $108 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 5/10 | $6,950 | $6,965 | 78% | 82% | +$2,698 | -$20,334 | 38.4% | $-23,729 (vs do-nothing $-20,339) |
| $112 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 9/10 | $6,669 | $6,672 | 77% | 82% | +$2,190 | -$32,028 | 60.4% | $-35,428 (vs do-nothing $-32,037) |
| $111 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 8/10 | $6,480 | $6,486 | 76% | 80% | +$2,032 | -$29,086 | 54.9% | $-32,484 (vs do-nothing $-29,094) |
| $107 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 4/10 | $6,480 | $6,498 | 75% | 80% | +$2,281 | -$16,575 | 31.3% | $-19,969 (vs do-nothing $-16,579) |
| $110 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 8/10 | $7,080 | $7,086 | 74% | 79% | +$2,114 | -$29,686 | 56.0% | $-33,084 (vs do-nothing $-29,694) |
| $109 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 8/10 | $7,200 | $7,206 | 72% | 78% | +$1,663 | -$30,446 | 57.4% | $-33,844 (vs do-nothing $-30,454) |
| $106 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 4/10 | $7,600 | $7,618 | 71% | 78% | +$2,457 | -$16,863 | 31.8% | $-20,257 (vs do-nothing $-16,867) |
| $110 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 10/10 | $7,059 | $7,059 | 70% | 77% | +$1,401 | -$36,057 | 68.0% | $-39,458 (vs do-nothing $-36,067) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $108 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 7/10 | $6,825 | $6,834 | 70% | 77% | +$1,430 | -$27,165 | 51.3% | $-30,562 (vs do-nothing $-27,172) |
| $109 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 9/10 | $6,750 | $6,753 | 69% | 76% | +$1,216 | -$33,126 | 62.5% | $-36,526 (vs do-nothing $-33,135) |
| $105 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.21 | 3/10 | $6,630 | $6,651 | 68% | 76% | +$1,943 | -$12,854 | 24.3% | $-16,248 (vs do-nothing $-12,857) |
| $107 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 7/10 | $7,455 | $7,464 | 67% | 75% | +$1,457 | -$27,655 | 52.2% | $-31,052 (vs do-nothing $-27,662) |
| $108 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 8/10 | $6,494 | $6,500 | 67% | 75% | +$1,152 | -$29,966 | 56.5% | $-33,364 (vs do-nothing $-29,974) |
| $108 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 10/10 | $6,812 | $6,812 | 66% | 74% | +$731 | -$36,607 | 69.1% | $-40,008 (vs do-nothing $-36,617) |
| $107 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 8/10 | $6,988 | $6,994 | 65% | 74% | +$1,192 | -$30,486 | 57.5% | $-33,884 (vs do-nothing $-30,494) |
| $106 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 6/10 | $7,020 | $7,032 | 65% | 74% | +$1,313 | -$24,094 | 45.5% | $-27,491 (vs do-nothing $-24,100) |
| $107 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 9/10 | $6,469 | $6,472 | 64% | 74% | +$614 | -$33,576 | 63.4% | $-36,976 (vs do-nothing $-33,585) |
| $104 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 3/10 | $7,680 | $7,701 | 64% | 74% | +$2,032 | -$13,049 | 24.6% | $-16,443 (vs do-nothing $-13,052) |
| $106 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 7/10 | $6,609 | $6,618 | 63% | 73% | +$1,112 | -$27,095 | 51.1% | $-30,492 (vs do-nothing $-27,102) |
| $105 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 5/10 | $6,525 | $6,540 | 63% | 73% | +$1,254 | -$20,354 | 38.4% | $-23,749 (vs do-nothing $-20,359) |
| $106 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.05 | 9/10 | $6,806 | $6,809 | 63% | 73% | +$548 | -$34,206 | 64.5% | $-37,606 (vs do-nothing $-34,215) |
| $105 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 7/10 | $7,165 | $7,174 | 61% | 72% | +$1,214 | -$27,480 | 51.8% | $-30,877 (vs do-nothing $-27,487) |
| $105 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 8/10 | $6,500 | $6,506 | 61% | 72% | +$558 | -$30,846 | 58.2% | $-34,244 (vs do-nothing $-30,854) |
| $104 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 5/10 | $7,050 | $7,065 | 60% | 72% | +$1,220 | -$20,679 | 39.0% | $-24,074 (vs do-nothing $-20,684) |
| $103 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 3/10 | $8,820 | $8,841 | 60% | 72% | +$2,070 | -$13,235 | 25.0% | $-16,629 (vs do-nothing $-13,238) |
| $104 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 6/10 | $6,459 | $6,471 | 59% | 71% | +$943 | -$23,974 | 45.2% | $-27,371 (vs do-nothing $-23,980) |
| $104 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 7/10 | $6,650 | $6,659 | 59% | 71% | +$1,101 | -$26,920 | 50.8% | $-30,317 (vs do-nothing $-26,927) |
| $103 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 5/10 | $7,650 | $7,665 | 58% | 70% | +$1,214 | -$20,979 | 39.6% | $-24,374 (vs do-nothing $-20,984) |
| $103 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.35 | 8/10 | $7,350 | $7,356 | 58% | 70% | +$588 | -$31,766 | 59.9% | $-35,164 (vs do-nothing $-31,774) |
| $103 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 6/10 | $6,988 | $7,000 | 57% | 70% | +$1,031 | -$24,274 | 45.8% | $-27,671 (vs do-nothing $-24,280) |
| $102 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.75 | 7/10 | $6,781 | $6,790 | 56% | 69% | +$478 | -$28,215 | 53.2% | $-31,612 (vs do-nothing $-28,222) |
| $102 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 6/10 | $7,412 | $7,424 | 55% | 69% | +$985 | -$24,634 | 46.5% | $-28,031 (vs do-nothing $-24,640) |
| $102 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 3/10 | $9,600 | $9,621 | 55% | 69% | +$1,598 | -$13,457 | 25.4% | $-16,851 (vs do-nothing $-13,460) |
| $102 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/10 | $6,660 | $6,678 | 55% | 69% | +$988 | -$17,003 | 32.1% | $-20,397 (vs do-nothing $-17,007) |
| $101 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 7/10 | $7,175 | $7,184 | 54% | 69% | +$465 | -$28,600 | 54.0% | $-31,997 (vs do-nothing $-28,607) |
| $101 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 5/10 | $6,618 | $6,633 | 53% | 69% | +$849 | -$20,779 | 39.2% | $-24,174 (vs do-nothing $-20,784) |
| $101 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 4/10 | $7,200 | $7,218 | 52% | 68% | +$965 | -$17,223 | 32.5% | $-20,617 (vs do-nothing $-17,227) |
| $100 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.10 | 6/10 | $6,825 | $6,837 | 52% | 68% | +$709 | -$24,574 | 46.4% | $-27,971 (vs do-nothing $-24,580) |
| $100 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 5/10 | $7,015 | $7,030 | 51% | 67% | +$809 | -$21,054 | 39.7% | $-24,449 (vs do-nothing $-21,059) |
| $101 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 2/10 | $7,400 | $7,424 | 51% | 67% | +$1,126 | -$9,071 | 17.1% | $-12,464 (vs do-nothing $-9,073) |
| $100 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 4/10 | $8,100 | $8,118 | 50% | 67% | +$1,263 | -$17,323 | 32.7% | $-20,717 (vs do-nothing $-17,327) |
| $100 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/10 | $8,400 | $8,424 | 46% | 65% | +$1,080 | -$9,171 | 17.3% | $-12,564 (vs do-nothing $-9,173) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.