4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.37 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,647/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $385/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,286 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 3d | 4 × $112 | 88% | $3,000 | $806 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 10d | 4 × $112 | 79% | $2,856 | $370 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $127 | 10 Jul | 3d | 27.5% | 98% | 2% | $40 | $400 | -$2,600 | $16,508 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $127 27.5% OTM over spot $99.60 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid) = $40 credit for the 3d cycle → $400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $127) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $127.16) 98% EV / mo +$279 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.7-5.4] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,002 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,718 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $138 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.21/sh now → $4.40 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $127 is $41 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $127.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $127): -$16,508 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,508 (+$13,778 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,200, the opportunity cost of earning $400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,208, position total $-17,750 (+$12,536 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $114 | 10 Jul | 3d | 14.5% | 91% | 9% | $216 | $2,160 | -$840 | $21,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $114 14.5% OTM over spot $99.60 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.59 mid) = $216 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $114.59) 91% EV / mo +$1,004 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,640 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,282 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $125 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.29/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.52–$6.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $118 (overshoots $3.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $54 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $114.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$21,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,532 (+$8,754 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,224, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,232, position total $-22,774 (+$7,512 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $112 | 10 Jul | 3d | 12.4% | 88% | 12% | $300 | $3,000 | — | $22,248 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 12.4% OTM over spot $99.60 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.79 mid) = $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $112.80) 89% EV / mo +$1,306 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.8] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,471 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,159 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $131 @ 81% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.16/sh now → $3.65 mid-life (likely $3.45–$6.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 451 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $116 (overshoots $3.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $56 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $112.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$22,248 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,248 (+$8,038 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,940, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,948, position total $-23,490 (+$6,796 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $107 | 10 Jul | 3d | 7.4% | 77% | 23% | $612 | $6,120 | +$3,120 | $23,936 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $107 7.4% OTM over spot $99.60 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.60 mid) = $612 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $108.60) 81% EV / mo +$1,840 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~18.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,120 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$753 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $131 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.82/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.90–$6.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 935 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $111 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $61 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $108.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $107): -$23,936 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,936 (+$6,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,628, the opportunity cost of earning $6,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,636, position total $-25,178 (+$5,108 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $130 | 17 Jul | 10d | 30.5% | 94% | 6% | $135 | $405 | -$2,451 | $11,376 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $130 30.5% OTM over spot $99.60 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.51 mid) = $135 credit for the 10d cycle → $405/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $130.50) 95% EV / mo +$163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-4.8] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-549 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,065 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $136 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.36/sh now → $7.33 mid-life (likely $5.42–$8.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 192 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $134 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $130 is $38 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $130.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $130): -$11,376 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $160): -$827 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,203 (+$18,083 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,895, the opportunity cost of earning $405/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,151, position total $-15,683 (+$14,603 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 10d | 22.5% | 90% | 10% | $372 | $1,116 | -$1,740 | $18,176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 22.5% OTM over spot $99.60 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.02 mid) = $372 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,116/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $123.02) 91% EV / mo +$478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,446 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,285 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $128 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.39/sh now → $6.64 mid-life (likely $5.64–$9.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 429 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $126 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $46 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.93 collected) or spot ≥ $123.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$18,176 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,176 (+$12,110 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,868, the opportunity cost of earning $1,116/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,876, position total $-19,418 (+$10,868 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $116 | 17 Jul | 10d | 16.5% | 84% | 16% | $668 | $2,004 | -$852 | $20,280 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $116 16.5% OTM over spot $99.60 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.77 mid) = $668 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,004/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $116) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $117.77) 86% EV / mo +$744 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.2] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,087 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,791 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $126 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.69/sh now → $6.15 mid-life (likely $5.69–$9.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 763 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $119 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $116 is $52 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $117.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $116)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $116): -$20,280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,280 (+$10,006 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,972, the opportunity cost of earning $2,004/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,980, position total $-21,522 (+$8,764 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $112 | 17 Jul | 10d | 12.4% | 79% | 21% | $952 | $2,856 | — | $21,596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 12.4% OTM over spot $99.60 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.48 mid) = $952 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,856/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $114.48) 82% EV / mo +$891 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.4] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,490 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,378 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $124 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.23/sh now → $5.82 mid-life (likely $6.15–$9.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,067 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $115 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $56 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.38 collected) or spot ≥ $114.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$21,596 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,596 (+$8,690 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,288, the opportunity cost of earning $2,856/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,296, position total $-22,838 (+$7,448 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $103 | 17 Jul | 10d | 3.4% | 61% | 39% | $1,920 | $5,760 | +$2,904 | $24,228 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 3.4% OTM over spot $99.60 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $5.07 mid) = $1,920 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $108.08) 72% EV / mo +$821 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~19.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$132 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $127 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.25/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $6.91–$9.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,999 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $106 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.20/sh (~25% of the $4.80 collected) or spot ≥ $108.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,286 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,286 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$24,228 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,228 (+$6,058 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,920, the opportunity cost of earning $5,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,928, position total $-25,470 (+$4,816 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 46 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.101 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,286 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,308
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $112 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,615 | 88% | 89% | +$1,306 | -$22,248 | 463.5% | $-22,248 (vs do-nothing $-18,940) |
| $111 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 4/4 | $3,280 | $2,895 | 86% | 88% | +$1,232 | -$22,620 | 471.2% | $-22,620 (vs do-nothing $-19,312) |
| $110 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 3/4 | $2,940 | $2,585 | 84% | 86% | +$1,086 | -$17,217 | 358.7% | $-18,044 (vs do-nothing $-14,736) |
| $109 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 3/4 | $3,360 | $3,005 | 82% | 85% | +$1,127 | -$17,475 | 364.1% | $-18,302 (vs do-nothing $-14,994) |
| $108 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 3/4 | $3,900 | $3,545 | 80% | 83% | +$1,218 | -$17,721 | 369.2% | $-18,548 (vs do-nothing $-15,240) |
| $112 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 4/4 | $2,856 | $2,471 | 79% | 82% | +$891 | -$21,596 | 449.9% | $-21,596 (vs do-nothing $-18,288) |
| $111 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.61 | 4/4 | $3,132 | $2,747 | 77% | 81% | +$942 | -$21,904 | 456.3% | $-21,904 (vs do-nothing $-18,596) |
| $107 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 2/4 | $3,060 | $2,735 | 77% | 81% | +$920 | -$11,968 | 249.3% | $-13,622 (vs do-nothing $-10,314) |
| $110 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.84 | 4/4 | $3,408 | $3,023 | 75% | 80% | +$970 | -$22,212 | 462.7% | $-22,212 (vs do-nothing $-18,904) |
| $106 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 2/4 | $3,520 | $3,195 | 74% | 79% | +$968 | -$12,122 | 252.5% | $-13,776 (vs do-nothing $-10,468) |
| $109 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/4 | $3,600 | $3,215 | 74% | 79% | +$890 | -$22,548 | 469.7% | $-22,548 (vs do-nothing $-19,240) |
| $108 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 3/4 | $2,880 | $2,525 | 72% | 78% | +$624 | -$17,151 | 357.3% | $-17,978 (vs do-nothing $-14,670) |
| $105 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 2/4 | $4,060 | $3,735 | 71% | 77% | +$1,031 | -$12,268 | 255.6% | $-13,922 (vs do-nothing $-10,614) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/4 | $3,035 | $2,651 | 71% | 76% | +$183 | -$21,628 | 450.6% | $-21,628 (vs do-nothing $-18,320) |
| $107 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/4 | $3,285 | $2,930 | 70% | 77% | +$785 | -$17,316 | 360.7% | $-18,143 (vs do-nothing $-14,835) |
| $109 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 4/4 | $3,247 | $2,862 | 69% | 76% | +$196 | -$21,908 | 456.4% | $-21,908 (vs do-nothing $-18,600) |
| $104 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 2/4 | $4,640 | $4,315 | 68% | 75% | +$1,062 | -$12,410 | 258.5% | $-14,064 (vs do-nothing $-10,756) |
| $108 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 4/4 | $3,424 | $3,039 | 68% | 75% | +$163 | -$22,208 | 462.7% | $-22,208 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) |
| $106 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 3/4 | $3,555 | $3,200 | 68% | 76% | +$789 | -$17,526 | 365.1% | $-18,353 (vs do-nothing $-15,045) |
| $107 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/4 | $3,529 | $3,145 | 66% | 74% | +$48 | -$22,548 | 469.7% | $-22,548 (vs do-nothing $-19,240) |
| $106 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/4 | $2,938 | $2,584 | 66% | 75% | +$592 | -$17,046 | 355.1% | $-17,873 (vs do-nothing $-14,565) |
| $105 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 3/4 | $3,825 | $3,470 | 66% | 74% | +$770 | -$17,736 | 369.5% | $-18,563 (vs do-nothing $-15,255) |
| $103 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 2/4 | $5,280 | $4,955 | 65% | 74% | +$1,074 | -$12,546 | 261.4% | $-14,200 (vs do-nothing $-10,892) |
| $104 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 3/4 | $4,185 | $3,830 | 63% | 73% | +$818 | -$17,916 | 373.2% | $-18,743 (vs do-nothing $-15,435) |
| $105 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/4 | $2,991 | $2,637 | 63% | 72% | +$21 | -$17,316 | 360.7% | $-18,143 (vs do-nothing $-14,835) |
| $104 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $3,203 | $2,848 | 62% | 71% | +$39 | -$17,496 | 364.5% | $-18,323 (vs do-nothing $-15,015) |
| $103 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/4 | $2,880 | $2,555 | 61% | 72% | +$411 | -$12,114 | 252.4% | $-13,768 (vs do-nothing $-10,460) |
| $102 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/4 | $3,000 | $2,705 | 61% | 72% | +$542 | -$6,337 | 132.0% | $-8,818 (vs do-nothing $-5,510) |
| $103 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/4 | $3,388 | $3,034 | 60% | 70% | +$20 | -$17,691 | 368.6% | $-18,518 (vs do-nothing $-15,210) |
| $102 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/4 | $3,240 | $2,915 | 59% | 71% | +$529 | -$12,194 | 254.0% | $-13,848 (vs do-nothing $-10,540) |
| $102 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/4 | $3,838 | $3,484 | 59% | 70% | +$257 | -$17,736 | 369.5% | $-18,563 (vs do-nothing $-15,255) |
| $101 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 1/4 | $3,450 | $3,155 | 57% | 70% | +$592 | -$6,392 | 133.2% | $-8,873 (vs do-nothing $-5,565) |
| $101 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/4 | $3,865 | $3,510 | 57% | 69% | +$59 | -$18,021 | 375.4% | $-18,848 (vs do-nothing $-15,540) |
| $101 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/4 | $3,420 | $3,095 | 57% | 70% | +$450 | -$12,334 | 257.0% | $-13,988 (vs do-nothing $-10,680) |
| $100 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 2/4 | $2,824 | $2,499 | 55% | 68% | +$130 | -$12,074 | 251.5% | $-13,728 (vs do-nothing $-10,420) |
| $100 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/4 | $3,780 | $3,455 | 54% | 69% | +$534 | -$12,414 | 258.6% | $-14,068 (vs do-nothing $-10,760) |
| $100 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 1/4 | $3,850 | $3,555 | 54% | 68% | +$547 | -$6,452 | 134.4% | $-8,933 (vs do-nothing $-5,625) |
| $99 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/4 | $2,876 | $2,552 | 54% | 67% | +$20 | -$12,244 | 255.1% | $-13,898 (vs do-nothing $-10,590) |
| $98.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.40 | 2/4 | $2,965 | $2,640 | 53% | 67% | +$24 | -$12,294 | 256.1% | $-13,948 (vs do-nothing $-10,640) |
| $99 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 2/4 | $3,990 | $3,665 | 52% | 67% | +$449 | -$12,544 | 261.3% | $-14,198 (vs do-nothing $-10,890) |
| $98 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.00 | 2/4 | $3,176 | $2,852 | 52% | 67% | +$149 | -$12,274 | 255.7% | $-13,928 (vs do-nothing $-10,620) |
| $98.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 2/4 | $4,110 | $3,785 | 51% | 67% | +$415 | -$12,604 | 262.6% | $-14,258 (vs do-nothing $-10,950) |
| $99 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 1/4 | $4,200 | $3,905 | 50% | 66% | +$405 | -$6,517 | 135.8% | $-8,998 (vs do-nothing $-5,690) |
| $98 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 2/4 | $4,290 | $3,965 | 49% | 66% | +$437 | -$12,644 | 263.4% | $-14,298 (vs do-nothing $-10,990) |
| $98.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 1/4 | $4,600 | $4,305 | 48% | 66% | +$542 | -$6,527 | 136.0% | $-9,008 (vs do-nothing $-5,700) |
| $98 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 1/4 | $4,750 | $4,455 | 46% | 65% | +$416 | -$6,562 | 136.7% | $-9,043 (vs do-nothing $-5,735) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.