FORTRESS FIGHT: MSTR @ $101.63

BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.84 | 4 contracts (400 sh) | 2026-07-07 21:39 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MSTR @ $101.63 UNDERWATER $59.37 (36.9% below BE SS)

4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $125 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $82.167/sh)

SP: $185 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $70.772/sh)

HP: $55 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.627/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,800	(ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400
Normal income ref	$5,718/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$409/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-28,744	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,859/mo

HEDGE COVER
$409/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,718/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $4,800

ML VELOCITY
9.9 mo to earn back $56,800

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $166.84 (probe: $165C 17d) brings only $7/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-1,498

Hole (after banked)

$30,242

was $28,744 · -5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 18 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 41 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $137.62 (+35%) · daily UBB $135.72 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 4 contracts at $116 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 89%, breach 11%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,859/mo); it brings $3,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 4 × $111/3d for $6,080/mo, but breach risk rises to 20% (+9pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $130/3d (98% survival, $450/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $20,035 (417% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $161, recoverable in 3.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 4 contracts realizes $-28,774 and cuts bleed by $409/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 4 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 4 × $116 (primary), 89% survival, breach 11%, $3,000/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $117 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 90% (breach 11% → 10%) for $440/mo less (15% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MSTR spot $101.63

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	3 × $130	10 Jul	3d	27.9%	98%	2%	$450	-$2,550	$11,007
33% normal	4 × $120	10 Jul	3d	18.1%	93%	7%	$1,920	-$1,080	$18,543
🛡 safe yield	4 × $117	10 Jul	3d	15.1%	90%	10%	$2,560	-$440	$19,679
🎯 50% normal	4 × $116	10 Jul	3d	14.1%	89%	11%	$3,000	—	$20,035
100% normal	4 × $111	10 Jul	3d	9.2%	80%	20%	$6,080	+$3,080	$21,727
📅 next weekly	4 × $114	17 Jul	10d	12.2%	77%	23%	$3,144	+$144	$20,087

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MSTR are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 4×$116, 14.1% OTM, 89% surv

Sell 4 × $116 14.1% OTM over spot $101.63 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.82 mid)

= $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $116.83)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,425

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,210

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,372

Free roll-up

+$8/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$136 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.91/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $4.10–$7.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $120 (overshoots $4.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.33/sh	+$1,333 cycle +$1,633 [+$1,139…+$1,549] · 98% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$128	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.72/sh	+$289 cycle +$589 [-$278…+$475] · 62% credit	77% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.22/sh	+$90 cycle +$390 [-$545…+$265] · 47% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$124	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$17 cycle +$317 [-$539…+$165] · 42% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$136	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.67/sh	-$268 cycle +$32 [-$1,002…-$117] · 14% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $300 debit $268 (89% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,632/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,859/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($5,718/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,591/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $116 is $51 below CC-SS $166.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,035
… as % of IC ($4,800)	417.4%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	35.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.5 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-28,774

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $116.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $116)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $114.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $115-116.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $116.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$116.00 (1.5σ)	$300	$-22,110	+$6,634	+$296
+2.5%	$118.90 (1.8σ)	$-860	$-21,991	+$6,753	-$864
+5%	$121.80 (2.1σ)	$-2,020	$-21,873	+$6,871	-$2,024
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (6.2σ)	$-17,700	$-20,274	+$8,470	-$17,304

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,744

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,744

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $116): -$20,035

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,035 (+$8,709 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,731 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,304, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,348, position total $-21,228 (+$7,516 vs today)

🛡 safe yield · sell 4×$117, 15.1% OTM, 90% surv

Sell 4 × $117 15.1% OTM over spot $101.63 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.72 mid)

= $256 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,560/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $117.72)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,241

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,896

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,436

Free roll-up

+$8/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$137 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $5.98/sh now → $4.23 mid-life (likely $3.89–$7.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $121 (overshoots $4.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.38/sh	+$1,351 cycle +$1,607 [+$1,152…+$1,639] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$130	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.57/sh	+$226 cycle +$482 [-$361…+$446] · 61% credit	78% surv 73%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$131	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.28/sh	+$111 cycle +$367 [-$501…+$327] · 52% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$125	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$31 cycle +$287 [-$512…+$219] · 47% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$137	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.62/sh	-$248 cycle +$8 [-$955…-$43] · 20% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $256 debit $248 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,709/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,560/mo
vs 50% target ($2,859/mo)	-10%
vs normal income ($5,718/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,151/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $117 is $50 below CC-SS $166.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,679
… as % of IC ($4,800)	410.0%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	34.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.4 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-28,776

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $117.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $117)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $115.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $116-117.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $117.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$117.00 (1.6σ)	$256	$-21,713	+$7,031	+$252
+2.5%	$119.92 (1.9σ)	$-914	$-21,594	+$7,150	-$918
+5%	$122.85 (2.2σ)	$-2,084	$-21,474	+$7,270	-$2,088
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (6.2σ)	$-17,344	$-19,918	+$8,826	-$16,948

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,744

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,744

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $117): -$19,679

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,679 (+$9,065 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,731 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,948, the opportunity cost of earning $2,560/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,992, position total $-20,872 (+$7,872 vs today)

33% normal · sell 4×$120, 18.1% OTM, 93% surv

Sell 4 × $120 18.1% OTM over spot $101.63 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.51 mid)

= $192 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,920/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $120.50)

94%

EV / mo

+$1,147

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,914

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,564

Free roll-up

+$8/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$140 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $6.21/sh now → $4.39 mid-life (likely $3.82–$7.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 223 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $124 (overshoots $4.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.52/sh	+$1,407 cycle +$1,599 [+$1,301…+$1,734] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$133	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.74/sh	+$296 cycle +$488 [-$137…+$553] · 68% credit	77% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$128	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.19/sh	+$75 cycle +$267 [-$354…+$301] · 52% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$136	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.12/sh	+$49 cycle +$241 [-$448…+$305] · 50% credit	80% surv 75%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$140	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.46/sh	-$185 cycle +$7 [-$746…+$68] · 31% credit	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $192 debit $185 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,945/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,920/mo
vs 50% target ($2,859/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($5,718/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,511/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $120 is $47 below CC-SS $166.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,543
… as % of IC ($4,800)	386.3%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	32.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-28,754

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $120.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $119-120.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $120.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$120.00 (1.9σ)	$192	$-20,455	+$8,289	+$188
+2.5%	$123.00 (2.2σ)	$-1,008	$-20,332	+$8,412	-$1,012
+5%	$126.00 (2.5σ)	$-2,208	$-20,210	+$8,534	-$2,212
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (6.2σ)	$-16,208	$-18,782	+$9,962	-$15,812

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,744

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,744

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,543

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,543 (+$10,201 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,731 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,812, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,856, position total $-19,736 (+$9,008 vs today)

100% normal · sell 4×$111, 9.2% OTM, 80% surv

Sell 4 × $111 9.2% OTM over spot $101.63 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.59 mid)

= $608 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,080/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $111)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $112.59)

84%

EV / mo

+$2,345

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~12.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,003

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$961

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$134 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $5.55/sh now → $3.92 mid-life (likely $4.09–$7.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 773 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $115 (overshoots $4.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$111	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.11/sh	+$1,243 cycle +$1,851 [+$994…+$1,423] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$121	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.97/sh	+$389 cycle +$997 [-$187…+$507] · 62% credit	76% surv 70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.24/sh	+$95 cycle +$703 [-$551…+$194] · 36% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.18/sh	+$72 cycle +$680 [-$470…+$160] · 36% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.35/sh	-$539 cycle +$69 [-$1,402…-$500]	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $608 debit $539 (89% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$69 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,932/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,080/mo
vs 50% target ($2,859/mo)	+113%
vs normal income ($5,718/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,671/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $111 is $56 below CC-SS $166.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,727
… as % of IC ($4,800)	452.7%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	38.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-28,774

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.52 collected) or spot ≥ $112.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $109.89	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $110-112.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $112.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$111.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$608	$-24,006	+$4,738	+$604
+2.5%	$113.77 (1.3σ)	$-502	$-23,892	+$4,852	-$506
+5%	$116.55 (1.6σ)	$-1,612	$-23,779	+$4,965	-$1,616
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (6.2σ)	$-19,392	$-21,966	+$6,778	-$18,996

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,744

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,744

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$21,727

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,727 (+$7,017 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,731 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,996, the opportunity cost of earning $6,080/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,040, position total $-22,920 (+$5,824 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 3×$130, 27.9% OTM, 98% surv

Sell 3 × $130 27.9% OTM over spot $101.63 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid)

= $45 credit for the 3d cycle → $450/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $130)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $130.16)

98%

EV / mo

+$346

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,920

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,435

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$150 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.98/sh now → $4.93 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$130	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$4.00/sh	+$1,200 cycle +$1,245	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$140	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$19 cycle +$64	77% surv 70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$150	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.12/sh	+$37 cycle +$82	81% surv 77%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$450/mo
vs 50% target ($2,859/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($5,718/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$44/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $130 is $37 below CC-SS $166.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,007
… as % of IC ($4,800)	229.3%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	19.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-21,562

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $130.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $128.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $129-130.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $130.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$130.00 (2.9σ)	$45	$-16,193	+$12,551	+$42
+2.5%	$133.25 (3.3σ)	$-930	$-15,735	+$13,009	-$933
+5%	$136.50 (3.6σ)	$-1,905	$-15,277	+$13,467	-$1,908
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (6.2σ)	$-9,255	$-11,928	+$16,816	-$8,958

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,744

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,744

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $130): -$11,007

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $160): -$683

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,689 (+$17,055 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,731 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,958, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,241, position total $-15,120 (+$13,624 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 46 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.102 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,744 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,731

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$116	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.75	4/4	$3,000	$2,591	89%	90%	+$1,425	-$20,035	417.4%	$-20,035 (vs do-nothing $-17,304)
$115	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.87	4/4	$3,480	$3,071	88%	89%	+$1,601	-$20,387	424.7%	$-20,387 (vs do-nothing $-17,656)
$114	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.01	3/4	$3,030	$2,624	86%	88%	+$1,352	-$15,549	323.9%	$-16,231 (vs do-nothing $-13,500)
$113	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.16	3/4	$3,480	$3,074	84%	87%	+$1,484	-$15,804	329.2%	$-16,486 (vs do-nothing $-13,755)
$112	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.31	3/4	$3,930	$3,524	82%	85%	+$1,563	-$16,059	334.6%	$-16,741 (vs do-nothing $-14,010)
$111	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.52	2/4	$3,040	$2,637	80%	84%	+$1,172	-$10,864	226.3%	$-12,229 (vs do-nothing $-9,498)
$115	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.40	4/4	$2,880	$2,471	79%	83%	+$800	-$19,775	412.0%	$-19,775 (vs do-nothing $-17,044)
$110	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.74	2/4	$3,480	$3,077	78%	82%	+$1,276	-$11,020	229.6%	$-12,385 (vs do-nothing $-9,654)
$114	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.62	4/4	$3,144	$2,735	77%	81%	+$794	-$20,087	418.5%	$-20,087 (vs do-nothing $-17,356)
$113	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.83	4/4	$3,396	$2,987	76%	81%	+$856	-$20,403	425.1%	$-20,403 (vs do-nothing $-17,672)
$109	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.95	2/4	$3,900	$3,497	76%	81%	+$1,308	-$11,178	232.9%	$-12,543 (vs do-nothing $-9,812)
$112	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	4/4	$3,660	$3,251	74%	79%	+$798	-$20,715	431.6%	$-20,715 (vs do-nothing $-17,984)
$108	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.21	2/4	$4,420	$4,017	73%	79%	+$1,381	-$11,326	236.0%	$-12,691 (vs do-nothing $-9,960)

Show 33 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$111	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.20	3/4	$2,880	$2,474	72%	78%	+$517	-$15,792	329.0%	$-16,474 (vs do-nothing $-13,743)
$112	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	4/4	$3,000	$2,591	71%	78%	+$519	-$20,235	421.6%	$-20,235 (vs do-nothing $-17,504)
$110	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	3/4	$3,150	$2,744	71%	77%	+$601	-$16,002	333.4%	$-16,684 (vs do-nothing $-13,953)
$111	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/4	$3,212	$2,802	70%	77%	+$537	-$20,515	427.4%	$-20,515 (vs do-nothing $-17,784)
$107	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.49	2/4	$4,980	$4,577	70%	77%	+$1,431	-$11,470	239.0%	$-12,835 (vs do-nothing $-10,104)
$109	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.80	3/4	$3,420	$3,014	69%	76%	+$618	-$16,212	337.7%	$-16,894 (vs do-nothing $-14,163)
$110	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/4	$3,600	$3,191	68%	76%	+$719	-$20,695	431.2%	$-20,695 (vs do-nothing $-17,964)
$106	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.81	2/4	$5,620	$5,217	67%	75%	+$1,491	-$11,606	241.8%	$-12,971 (vs do-nothing $-10,240)
$108	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	3/4	$3,735	$3,329	67%	75%	+$614	-$16,407	341.8%	$-17,089 (vs do-nothing $-14,358)
$109	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/4	$3,671	$3,261	67%	76%	+$569	-$21,055	438.7%	$-21,055 (vs do-nothing $-18,324)
$108	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.70	3/4	$3,018	$2,611	65%	75%	+$516	-$15,942	332.1%	$-16,624 (vs do-nothing $-13,893)
$107	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/4	$4,005	$3,599	65%	74%	+$592	-$16,617	346.2%	$-17,299 (vs do-nothing $-14,568)
$105	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.00	1/4	$3,000	$2,600	64%	73%	+$609	-$5,884	122.6%	$-7,932 (vs do-nothing $-5,201)
$107	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/4	$3,150	$2,744	64%	74%	+$462	-$16,167	336.8%	$-16,849 (vs do-nothing $-14,118)
$106	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.75	3/4	$4,275	$3,869	63%	73%	+$549	-$16,827	350.6%	$-17,509 (vs do-nothing $-14,778)
$106	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.45	3/4	$3,415	$3,008	62%	73%	+$529	-$16,317	339.9%	$-16,999 (vs do-nothing $-14,268)
$105	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	2/4	$3,120	$2,717	61%	72%	+$432	-$11,328	236.0%	$-12,693 (vs do-nothing $-9,962)
$104	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.40	1/4	$3,400	$3,000	60%	72%	+$643	-$5,944	123.8%	$-7,992 (vs do-nothing $-5,261)
$105	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/4	$3,653	$3,247	60%	72%	+$558	-$16,482	343.4%	$-17,164 (vs do-nothing $-14,433)
$104	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	2/4	$3,360	$2,957	59%	71%	+$427	-$11,448	238.5%	$-12,813 (vs do-nothing $-10,082)
$104	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/4	$3,865	$3,458	59%	71%	+$549	-$16,662	347.1%	$-17,344 (vs do-nothing $-14,613)
$103	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.80	1/4	$3,800	$3,400	57%	70%	+$636	-$6,004	125.1%	$-8,052 (vs do-nothing $-5,321)
$103	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/4	$4,076	$3,670	57%	70%	+$528	-$16,842	350.9%	$-17,524 (vs do-nothing $-14,793)
$103	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.05	2/4	$3,630	$3,227	57%	70%	+$437	-$11,558	240.8%	$-12,923 (vs do-nothing $-10,192)
$102	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	2/4	$2,859	$2,456	55%	70%	+$330	-$11,348	236.4%	$-12,713 (vs do-nothing $-9,982)
$102	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.50	2/4	$3,900	$3,497	54%	69%	+$429	-$11,668	243.1%	$-13,033 (vs do-nothing $-10,302)
$102	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.20	1/4	$4,200	$3,800	54%	68%	+$586	-$6,064	126.3%	$-8,112 (vs do-nothing $-5,381)
$101	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.65	2/4	$3,053	$2,650	53%	69%	+$352	-$11,438	238.3%	$-12,803 (vs do-nothing $-10,072)
$101	10d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/4	$4,200	$3,797	52%	68%	+$435	-$11,768	245.2%	$-13,133 (vs do-nothing $-10,402)
$100	17d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	2/4	$3,229	$2,826	51%	68%	+$349	-$11,538	240.4%	$-12,903 (vs do-nothing $-10,172)
$101	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.70	1/4	$4,700	$4,300	50%	67%	+$592	-$6,114	127.4%	$-8,162 (vs do-nothing $-5,431)
$100	10d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	2/4	$4,500	$4,097	50%	67%	+$424	-$11,868	247.2%	$-13,233 (vs do-nothing $-10,502)
$100	3d	10 Jul 2026	$5.20	1/4	$5,200	$4,800	46%	65%	+$555	-$6,164	128.4%	$-8,212 (vs do-nothing $-5,481)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 21:39