FORTRESS FIGHT: MSTR @ $97.48

BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.52 | 4 contracts (400 sh) | 2026-07-07 22:46 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MSTR @ $97.48 UNDERWATER $63.52 (39.5% below BE SS)

4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.52 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $125 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $82.167/sh)

SP: $185 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $70.772/sh)

HP: $55 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.627/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,800	(ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400
Normal income ref	$5,541/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$385/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-30,324	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,771/mo

HEDGE COVER
$385/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,541/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $4,800

ML VELOCITY
10.3 mo to earn back $56,800

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $166.52 (probe: $165C 17d) brings only $35/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-1,498

Hole (after banked)

$31,822

was $30,324 · -5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 34 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $137.62 (+41%) · daily UBB $135.72 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 4 contracts at $110 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 88%, breach 12%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,771/mo); it brings $2,880/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 4 × $105/3d for $5,880/mo, but breach risk rises to 22% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $127/3d (99% survival, $400/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $22,320 (465% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $161, recoverable in 4.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 4 contracts realizes $-30,342 and cuts bleed by $385/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 4 × $110, 88% survival, $2,880/mo (E[net] $1,120/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	10 Jul 2026 · 3d	4 × $110	88%	$2,880	$1,120
NEXT FRIDAY	17 Jul 2026 · 10d	4 × $110	79%	$2,772	$314

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $1,120/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 4 × $110 (primary), 88% survival, breach 12%, $2,880/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $112 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 91% (breach 12% → 9%) for $840/mo less (29% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MSTR spot $97.48

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	4 × $127	10 Jul	3d	30.3%	99%	1%	$400	-$2,480	$15,768
33% normal	4 × $112	10 Jul	3d	14.9%	91%	9%	$2,040	-$840	$21,604
🎯 50% normal	4 × $110	10 Jul	3d	12.8%	88%	12%	$2,880	—	$22,320
100% normal	4 × $105	10 Jul	3d	7.7%	78%	22%	$5,880	+$3,000	$24,020

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MSTR are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 4×$110, 12.8% OTM, 88% surv

Sell 4 × $110 12.8% OTM over spot $97.48 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.77 mid)

= $288 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,880/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $110)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $110.77)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,333

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-4.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,523

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,166

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$130 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.14/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.44–$6.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $114 (overshoots $3.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$110	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.50/sh	+$1,400 cycle +$1,688 [+$1,254…+$1,615] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$124	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.70/sh	+$282 cycle +$570 [-$175…+$460] · 63% credit	79% surv 74%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$119	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.22/sh	+$87 cycle +$375 [-$356…+$229] · 46% credit	78% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$127	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.06/sh	+$25 cycle +$313 [-$515…+$191] · 41% credit	81% surv 78%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.51/sh	-$204 cycle +$84 [-$823…-$50] · 18% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $288 debit $204 (71% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,344/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,880/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,495/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $110 is $57 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,320
… as % of IC ($4,800)	465.0%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	39.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,342

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $110.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $108.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $109-110.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $110.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$110.00 (1.4σ)	$288	$-24,536	+$5,788	+$256
+2.5%	$112.75 (1.7σ)	$-812	$-24,428	+$5,896	-$844
+5%	$115.50 (2.0σ)	$-1,912	$-24,321	+$6,003	-$1,944
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (7.1σ)	$-20,112	$-22,537	+$7,787	-$19,744

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$22,320

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,320 (+$8,004 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,744, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,760, position total $-23,453 (+$6,871 vs today)

33% normal · sell 4×$112, 14.9% OTM, 91% surv

Sell 4 × $112 14.9% OTM over spot $97.48 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.57 mid)

= $204 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,040/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $112)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $112.57)

92%

EV / mo

+$977

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,199

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,289

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$132 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $3.64–$6.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $115 (overshoots $3.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$112	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.60/sh	+$1,440 cycle +$1,644 [+$1,353…+$1,667] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$127	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.61/sh	+$243 cycle +$447 [-$105…+$403] · 65% credit	80% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$33 cycle +$237 [-$363…+$177] · 46% credit	82% surv 78%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$122	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$13 cycle +$217 [-$330…+$130] · 44% credit	78% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.41/sh	-$164 cycle +$40 [-$618…-$31] · 21% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $204 debit $164 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,493/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,040/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,655/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $112 is $55 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,604
… as % of IC ($4,800)	450.1%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	38.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.9 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,348

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $112.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $110.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $111-112.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $112.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$112.00 (1.6σ)	$204	$-23,742	+$6,582	+$172
+2.5%	$114.80 (1.9σ)	$-916	$-23,632	+$6,692	-$948
+5%	$117.60 (2.3σ)	$-2,036	$-23,522	+$6,802	-$2,068
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (7.1σ)	$-19,396	$-21,821	+$8,503	-$19,028

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$21,604

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,604 (+$8,720 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,028, the opportunity cost of earning $2,040/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,044, position total $-22,737 (+$7,587 vs today)

100% normal · sell 4×$105, 7.7% OTM, 78% surv

Sell 4 × $105 7.7% OTM over spot $97.48 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.55 mid)

= $588 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,880/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $106.55)

82%

EV / mo

+$1,943

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.2] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~17.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,479

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$771

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$129 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $4.80/sh now → $3.40 mid-life (likely $3.76–$6.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 918 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $109 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.25/sh	+$1,301 cycle +$1,889 [+$1,114…+$1,455] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$117	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.99/sh	+$394 cycle +$982 [-$105…+$452] · 67% credit	78% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$114	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$8 cycle +$596 [-$503…+$33] · 28% credit	78% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.01/sh	+$2 cycle +$590 [-$622…+$20] · 26% credit	82% surv 78%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$129	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.39/sh	-$558 cycle +$30 [-$1,407…-$600]	87% surv 86%
budget: banked $588 debit $558 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,501/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,880/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,495/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $62 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,020
… as % of IC ($4,800)	500.4%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	42.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.3 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,356

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $106.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-106.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $106.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$588	$-26,432	+$3,892	+$556
+2.5%	$107.62 (1.1σ)	$-462	$-26,329	+$3,995	-$494
+5%	$110.25 (1.4σ)	$-1,512	$-26,226	+$4,098	-$1,544
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (7.1σ)	$-21,812	$-24,237	+$6,087	-$21,444

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,020

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,020 (+$6,304 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,444, the opportunity cost of earning $5,880/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,460, position total $-25,153 (+$5,171 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 4×$127, 30.3% OTM, 99% surv

Sell 4 × $127 30.3% OTM over spot $97.48 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid)

= $40 credit for the 3d cycle → $400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $127)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $127.16)

99%

EV / mo

+$303

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [1.9-5.5] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,049

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,761

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$150 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $6.37/sh now → $4.50 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$127	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$4.40/sh	+$1,760 cycle +$1,800	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$139	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$15 cycle +$55	78% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$148	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.20/sh	+$80 cycle +$120	81% surv 78%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$150	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.02/sh	-$6 cycle +$34	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $40 debit $6 (16% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,365/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$400/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	-86%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $127 is $40 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,768
… as % of IC ($4,800)	328.5%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	27.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,348

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $127.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $125.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $126-127.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $127.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$127.00 (3.3σ)	$40	$-17,318	+$13,006	+$8
+2.5%	$130.17 (3.7σ)	$-1,230	$-17,193	+$13,131	-$1,262
+5%	$133.35 (4.0σ)	$-2,500	$-17,069	+$13,255	-$2,532
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (7.1σ)	$-13,560	$-15,985	+$14,339	-$13,192

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $127): -$15,768

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,768 (+$14,556 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,192, the opportunity cost of earning $400/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,208, position total $-16,901 (+$13,423 vs today)

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 10d · E[net] $314/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 4 × $110 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $2,772/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $114 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $876/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $114 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MSTR to stay flat-to-down near term.

MSTR spot $97.48

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	4 × $130	17 Jul	10d	33.4%	96%	4%	$468	-$2,304	$14,452
🛡 safe yield	4 × $120	17 Jul	10d	23.1%	91%	9%	$1,104	-$1,668	$18,240
33% normal ← lean	4 × $114	17 Jul	10d	17.0%	85%	15%	$1,896	-$876	$20,376
🎯 50% normal	4 × $110	17 Jul	10d	12.8%	79%	21%	$2,772	—	$21,684
100% normal	4 × $101	17 Jul	10d	3.6%	62%	38%	$5,700	+$2,928	$24,308

🎯 50% normal · sell 4×$110, 12.8% OTM, 79% surv

Sell 4 × $110 12.8% OTM over spot $97.48 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.40 mid)

= $924 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,772/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $110)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $112.40)

82%

EV / mo

+$827

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.9-5.0] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,200

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,389

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$123 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.17/sh now → $5.78 mid-life (likely $5.95–$9.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,063 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $114 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$110	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.17/sh	+$867 cycle +$1,791 [+$646…+$1,086] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$114	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.69/sh	+$278 cycle +$1,202 [-$21…+$403] · 72% credit	71% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$115	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$96 cycle +$1,020 [-$233…+$198] · 39% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$115	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$96 cycle +$1,020 [-$233…+$198] · 39% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.09/sh	-$837 cycle +$87 [-$1,380…-$816] · 1% credit	80% surv 75%
budget: banked $924 debit $837 (91% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,688/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,772/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,387/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $110 is $57 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,684
… as % of IC ($4,800)	451.8%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	38.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.9 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,360

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.31 collected) or spot ≥ $112.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $108.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $109-112.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $112.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$110.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$924	$-23,900	+$6,424	+$892
+2.5%	$112.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-176	$-23,792	+$6,532	-$208
+5%	$115.50 (1.1σ)	$-1,276	$-23,685	+$6,639	-$1,308
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (3.9σ)	$-19,476	$-21,901	+$8,423	-$19,108

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$21,684

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,684 (+$8,640 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,108, the opportunity cost of earning $2,772/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,124, position total $-22,817 (+$7,507 vs today)

🛡 safe yield · sell 4×$120, 23.1% OTM, 91% surv

Sell 4 × $120 23.1% OTM over spot $97.48 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.99 mid)

= $368 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,104/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $120.98)

91%

EV / mo

+$492

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,623

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,275

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$129 @ 75% POP

67% survival

Buyback gross: $9.34/sh now → $6.61 mid-life (likely $5.39–$9.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 455 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $124 (overshoots $3.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.49/sh	+$997 cycle +$1,365 [+$937…+$1,473] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$126	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$95 cycle +$463 [-$125…+$487] · 61% credit	73% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$126	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$95 cycle +$463 [-$125…+$487] · 61% credit	73% surv 63%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$129	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.70/sh	-$278 cycle +$90 [-$565…+$62] · 28% credit	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $368 debit $278 (76% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$90 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $5,911/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,104/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$719/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $120 is $47 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,240
… as % of IC ($4,800)	380.0%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	32.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,350

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $120.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $119-120.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $120.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$120.00 (1.4σ)	$368	$-20,064	+$10,260	+$336
+2.5%	$123.00 (1.6σ)	$-832	$-19,947	+$10,377	-$864
+5%	$126.00 (1.7σ)	$-2,032	$-19,829	+$10,495	-$2,064
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (3.9σ)	$-16,032	$-18,457	+$11,867	-$15,664

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,240

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,240 (+$12,084 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,664, the opportunity cost of earning $1,104/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,680, position total $-19,373 (+$10,951 vs today)

33% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 4×$114, 17.0% OTM, 85% surv

Sell 4 × $114 17.0% OTM over spot $97.48 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.67 mid)

= $632 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,896/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $115.67)

87%

EV / mo

+$663

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,704

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

24%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,810

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$125 @ 77% POP

71% survival

Buyback gross: $8.63/sh now → $6.11 mid-life (likely $5.95–$9.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 725 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $117 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.29/sh	+$918 cycle +$1,550 [+$742…+$1,222] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$118	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.82/sh	+$328 cycle +$960 [+$97…+$557] · 87% credit	71% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$21 cycle +$653 [-$247…+$205] · 39% credit	73% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$120	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$21 cycle +$653 [-$247…+$205] · 39% credit	73% surv 63%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$125	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.55/sh	-$620 cycle +$12 [-$1,019…-$517] · 8% credit	77% surv 71%
budget: banked $632 debit $620 (98% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $4,555/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,896/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,511/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $114 is $53 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,376
… as % of IC ($4,800)	424.5%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	35.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.7 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,360

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.58 collected) or spot ≥ $115.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $112.86	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $113-115.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $115.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$114.00 (1.0σ)	$632	$-22,435	+$7,889	+$600
+2.5%	$116.85 (1.2σ)	$-508	$-22,324	+$8,000	-$540
+5%	$119.70 (1.4σ)	$-1,648	$-22,212	+$8,112	-$1,680
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (3.9σ)	$-18,168	$-20,593	+$9,731	-$17,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$20,376

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,376 (+$9,948 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,800, the opportunity cost of earning $1,896/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,816, position total $-21,509 (+$8,815 vs today)

100% normal · sell 4×$101, 3.6% OTM, 62% surv

Sell 4 × $101 3.6% OTM over spot $97.48 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $5.03 mid)

= $1,900 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $106.03)

72%

EV / mo

+$885

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-5.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~19.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,527

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

67%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$133

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$125 @ 90% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $7.18/sh now → $5.08 mid-life (likely $6.76–$9.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,998 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $104 (overshoots $3.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.89/sh	+$757 cycle +$2,657 [+$460…+$637] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.95/sh	+$382 cycle +$2,282 [+$52…+$230] · 85% credit	71% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$105	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.43/sh	+$171 cycle +$2,071 [-$218…-$4] · 24% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.43/sh	+$171 cycle +$2,071 [-$218…-$4] · 24% credit	72% surv 61%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$125	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.95/sh	-$1,579 cycle +$321 [-$2,675…-$2,025]	90% surv 90%
budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,579 (83% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$321 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,135/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,315/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $101 is $66 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,308
… as % of IC ($4,800)	506.4%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	42.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.4 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,434

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.19/sh (~25% of the $4.75 collected) or spot ≥ $106.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $100-106.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $106.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$101.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,900	$-26,877	+$3,447	+$1,868
+2.5%	$103.52 (≤1σ, normal week)	$890	$-26,778	+$3,546	+$858
+5%	$106.05 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-120	$-26,679	+$3,645	-$152
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (3.9σ)	$-22,100	$-24,525	+$5,799	-$21,732

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$24,308

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,308 (+$6,016 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,732, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,748, position total $-25,441 (+$4,883 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 4×$130, 33.4% OTM, 96% surv

Sell 4 × $130 33.4% OTM over spot $97.48 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.43 mid)

= $156 credit for the 10d cycle → $468/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $130)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $130.43)

96%

EV / mo

+$256

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.9-5.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-265

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,836

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$139 @ 74% POP

66% survival

Buyback gross: $10.57/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $4.98–$8.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 170 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $134 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$130	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.84/sh	+$1,136 cycle +$1,292 [+$1,265…+$2,003] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$137	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.19/sh	+$76 cycle +$232 [+$40…+$790] · 79% credit	73% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$137	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.19/sh	+$76 cycle +$232 [+$40…+$790] · 79% credit	73% surv 63%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$138	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.13/sh	-$51 cycle +$105 [-$102…+$640] · 66% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$139	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.38/sh	-$151 cycle +$5 [-$206…+$516] · 58% credit	74% surv 66%
budget: banked $156 debit $151 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $7,103/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$468/mo
vs 50% target ($2,771/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($5,541/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$83/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $130 is $37 below CC-SS $166.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,452
… as % of IC ($4,800)	301.1%
… as % of ML ($56,800)	25.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-30,340

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $130.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $135.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $128.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $129-130.43	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $130.43	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$130.00 (2.0σ)	$156	$-15,884	+$14,440	+$124
+2.5%	$133.25 (2.2σ)	$-1,144	$-15,757	+$14,567	-$1,176
+5%	$136.50 (2.4σ)	$-2,444	$-15,629	+$14,695	-$2,476
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (3.9σ)	$-12,244	$-14,669	+$15,655	-$11,876

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.52, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,324

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,324

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $130): -$14,452

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,452 (+$15,872 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,576 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,876, the opportunity cost of earning $468/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,892, position total $-15,585 (+$14,739 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 52 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.098 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,324 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,576

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.72	4/4	$2,880	$2,495	88%	90%	+$1,333	-$22,320	465.0%	$-22,320 (vs do-nothing $-19,744)
$109	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.81	4/4	$3,240	$2,855	87%	88%	+$1,372	-$22,684	472.6%	$-22,684 (vs do-nothing $-20,108)
$108	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.94	3/4	$2,820	$2,459	85%	87%	+$1,128	-$17,274	359.9%	$-17,918 (vs do-nothing $-15,342)
$107	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.11	3/4	$3,330	$2,969	83%	85%	+$1,289	-$17,523	365.1%	$-18,167 (vs do-nothing $-15,591)
$106	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.27	3/4	$3,810	$3,449	81%	84%	+$1,352	-$17,775	370.3%	$-18,419 (vs do-nothing $-15,843)
$110	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.31	4/4	$2,772	$2,387	79%	82%	+$827	-$21,684	451.8%	$-21,684 (vs do-nothing $-19,108)
$105	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.47	2/4	$2,940	$2,603	78%	82%	+$971	-$12,010	250.2%	$-13,298 (vs do-nothing $-10,722)
$109	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.48	4/4	$2,976	$2,591	78%	82%	+$871	-$22,016	458.7%	$-22,016 (vs do-nothing $-19,440)
$108	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.68	4/4	$3,216	$2,831	76%	81%	+$868	-$22,336	465.3%	$-22,336 (vs do-nothing $-19,760)
$104	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.70	2/4	$3,400	$3,063	75%	80%	+$1,042	-$12,164	253.4%	$-13,452 (vs do-nothing $-10,876)
$107	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	4/4	$3,600	$3,215	74%	79%	+$986	-$22,608	471.0%	$-22,608 (vs do-nothing $-20,032)
$108	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/4	$2,894	$2,509	73%	79%	+$694	-$21,768	453.5%	$-21,768 (vs do-nothing $-19,192)
$106	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.25	3/4	$2,925	$2,564	72%	78%	+$745	-$17,181	357.9%	$-17,825 (vs do-nothing $-15,249)

Show 39 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$103	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.98	2/4	$3,960	$3,623	72%	78%	+$1,147	-$12,308	256.4%	$-13,596 (vs do-nothing $-11,020)
$107	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	4/4	$3,106	$2,721	71%	78%	+$721	-$22,048	459.3%	$-22,048 (vs do-nothing $-19,472)
$105	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.45	3/4	$3,105	$2,744	70%	77%	+$633	-$17,421	362.9%	$-18,065 (vs do-nothing $-15,489)
$106	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/4	$3,353	$2,968	69%	77%	+$770	-$22,308	464.8%	$-22,308 (vs do-nothing $-19,732)
$102	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/4	$4,600	$4,263	69%	76%	+$1,259	-$12,444	259.3%	$-13,732 (vs do-nothing $-11,156)
$104	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.85	3/4	$3,465	$3,104	68%	76%	+$782	-$17,601	366.7%	$-18,245 (vs do-nothing $-15,669)
$105	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	4/4	$3,529	$3,145	68%	76%	+$735	-$22,608	471.0%	$-22,608 (vs do-nothing $-20,032)
$104	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.30	3/4	$2,806	$2,445	66%	75%	+$540	-$17,166	357.6%	$-17,810 (vs do-nothing $-15,234)
$103	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.10	3/4	$3,690	$3,329	66%	75%	+$722	-$17,826	371.4%	$-18,470 (vs do-nothing $-15,894)
$101	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.64	2/4	$5,280	$4,943	65%	74%	+$1,331	-$12,576	262.0%	$-13,864 (vs do-nothing $-11,288)
$103	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	3/4	$2,991	$2,631	64%	74%	+$544	-$17,361	361.7%	$-18,005 (vs do-nothing $-15,429)
$102	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.35	3/4	$3,915	$3,554	64%	73%	+$638	-$18,051	376.1%	$-18,695 (vs do-nothing $-16,119)
$102	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/4	$3,150	$2,789	63%	73%	+$510	-$17,571	366.1%	$-18,215 (vs do-nothing $-15,639)
$100	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.00	1/4	$3,000	$2,687	62%	72%	+$678	-$6,352	132.3%	$-8,284 (vs do-nothing $-5,708)
$101	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/4	$2,850	$2,513	62%	72%	+$442	-$12,154	253.2%	$-13,442 (vs do-nothing $-10,866)
$101	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	3/4	$3,388	$3,028	61%	72%	+$543	-$17,736	369.5%	$-18,380 (vs do-nothing $-15,804)
$100	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.30	2/4	$3,180	$2,843	59%	71%	+$533	-$12,244	255.1%	$-13,532 (vs do-nothing $-10,956)
$100	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.95	3/4	$3,679	$3,319	59%	71%	+$617	-$17,871	372.3%	$-18,515 (vs do-nothing $-15,939)
$99	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.30	1/4	$3,300	$2,987	58%	70%	+$586	-$6,422	133.8%	$-8,354 (vs do-nothing $-5,778)
$99	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.25	3/4	$3,838	$3,478	57%	70%	+$546	-$18,081	376.7%	$-18,725 (vs do-nothing $-16,149)
$99	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	2/4	$3,330	$2,993	57%	70%	+$425	-$12,394	258.2%	$-13,682 (vs do-nothing $-11,106)
$98.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	3/4	$3,918	$3,557	56%	70%	+$505	-$18,186	378.9%	$-18,830 (vs do-nothing $-16,254)
$98.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.55	1/4	$3,550	$3,237	56%	70%	+$622	-$6,447	134.3%	$-8,379 (vs do-nothing $-5,803)
$98.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.80	2/4	$3,480	$3,143	56%	69%	+$440	-$12,444	259.3%	$-13,732 (vs do-nothing $-11,156)
$98	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/4	$4,050	$3,689	55%	69%	+$515	-$18,261	380.4%	$-18,905 (vs do-nothing $-16,329)
$98	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.00	2/4	$3,600	$3,263	55%	69%	+$427	-$12,504	260.5%	$-13,792 (vs do-nothing $-11,216)
$97.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	2/4	$2,771	$2,434	54%	69%	+$329	-$12,234	254.9%	$-13,522 (vs do-nothing $-10,946)
$98	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.70	1/4	$3,700	$3,387	54%	69%	+$546	-$6,482	135.0%	$-8,414 (vs do-nothing $-5,838)
$97.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.45	2/4	$3,870	$3,533	53%	68%	+$546	-$12,514	260.7%	$-13,802 (vs do-nothing $-11,226)
$97	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	2/4	$2,859	$2,522	53%	68%	+$331	-$12,284	255.9%	$-13,572 (vs do-nothing $-10,996)
$96.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.30	2/4	$2,929	$2,593	52%	68%	+$313	-$12,344	257.2%	$-13,632 (vs do-nothing $-11,056)
$97	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.45	2/4	$3,870	$3,533	52%	68%	+$397	-$12,614	262.8%	$-13,902 (vs do-nothing $-11,326)
$97.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.05	1/4	$4,050	$3,737	52%	68%	+$657	-$6,497	135.4%	$-8,429 (vs do-nothing $-5,853)
$96	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.55	2/4	$3,018	$2,681	51%	68%	+$311	-$12,394	258.2%	$-13,682 (vs do-nothing $-11,106)
$96.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.70	2/4	$4,020	$3,683	51%	67%	+$393	-$12,664	263.8%	$-13,952 (vs do-nothing $-11,376)
$97	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.15	1/4	$4,150	$3,837	50%	67%	+$507	-$6,537	136.2%	$-8,469 (vs do-nothing $-5,893)
$96	10d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/4	$4,200	$3,863	50%	67%	+$415	-$12,704	264.7%	$-13,992 (vs do-nothing $-11,416)
$96.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.40	1/4	$4,400	$4,087	48%	66%	+$494	-$6,562	136.7%	$-8,494 (vs do-nothing $-5,918)
$96	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.65	1/4	$4,650	$4,337	45%	66%	+$846	-$6,587	137.2%	$-8,519 (vs do-nothing $-5,943)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 22:46