4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $169.48 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,840/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $419/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,656 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 4 × $105 | 79% | $3,000 | $691 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $124 | 17 Jul | 8d | 30.9% | 98% | 4% | $112 | $420 | -$2,580 | $18,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $124 30.9% OTM over spot $94.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.34 mid) = $112 credit for the 8d cycle → $420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $124) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $124.34) 98% EV / mo +$354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.3-5.5] median · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-914 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,417 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $130 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.93/sh now → $6.32 mid-life (likely $3.89–$8.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 87 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $128 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $124 is $45 below CC-SS $169.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $124.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $124)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $169.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,656 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $124): -$18,079 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,079 (+$14,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,308, the opportunity cost of earning $420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,216, position total $-19,262 (+$13,394 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $112 | 17 Jul | 8d | 18.2% | 90% | 20% | $392 | $1,470 | -$1,530 | $22,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 18.2% OTM over spot $94.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.02 mid) = $392 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,470/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $113.02) 91% EV / mo +$869 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.4-5.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,212 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,758 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $120 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.60/sh now → $5.38 mid-life (likely $4.65–$7.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 432 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $115 (overshoots $3.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $57 below CC-SS $169.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $113.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $169.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,656 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$22,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,599 (+$10,057 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,828, the opportunity cost of earning $1,470/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,736, position total $-23,782 (+$8,874 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 8d | 14.0% | 85% | 32% | $552 | $2,070 | -$930 | $24,039 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 14.0% OTM over spot $94.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.52 mid) = $552 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $109.52) 87% EV / mo +$889 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.3-5.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,499 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,478 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $117 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.18/sh now → $5.08 mid-life (likely $4.63–$7.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 716 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $111 (overshoots $2.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $61 below CC-SS $169.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.38 collected) or spot ≥ $109.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $169.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,656 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$24,039 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,039 (+$8,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,268, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,176, position total $-25,222 (+$7,434 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 8d | 10.9% | 79% | 32% | $800 | $3,000 | — | $24,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.9% OTM over spot $94.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.09 mid) = $800 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $107.09) 83% EV / mo +$1,205 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~9.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,043 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,143 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $117 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.87/sh now → $4.86 mid-life (likely $4.94–$7.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $108 (overshoots $3.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $64 below CC-SS $169.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $107.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $169.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,656 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,991 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,991 (+$7,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,220, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,128, position total $-26,174 (+$6,482 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.5% | 62% | 79% | $1,640 | $6,150 | +$3,150 | $26,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98 3.5% OTM over spot $94.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.25 mid) = $1,640 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $102.25) 74% EV / mo +$1,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-6.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~22.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,276 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$105 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $118 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.17/sh now → $4.36 mid-life (likely $5.81–$8.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,842 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $101 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $71 below CC-SS $169.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $102.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $169.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,656 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98): -$26,951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,951 (+$5,705 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,180, the opportunity cost of earning $6,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,088, position total $-28,134 (+$4,522 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.092 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,656 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,771
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,581 | 79% | 83% | +$1,205 | -$24,991 | 520.6% | $-24,991 (vs do-nothing $-21,220) |
| $104 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 4/4 | $3,285 | $2,866 | 77% | 82% | +$1,226 | -$25,315 | 527.4% | $-25,315 (vs do-nothing $-21,544) |
| $103 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 4/4 | $3,705 | $3,286 | 75% | 81% | +$1,346 | -$25,603 | 533.4% | $-25,603 (vs do-nothing $-21,832) |
| $102 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 3/4 | $3,060 | $2,651 | 73% | 79% | +$1,037 | -$19,427 | 404.7% | $-20,370 (vs do-nothing $-16,599) |
| $103 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/4 | $3,040 | $2,621 | 71% | 77% | +$656 | -$25,071 | 522.3% | $-25,071 (vs do-nothing $-21,300) |
| $101 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/4 | $3,488 | $3,078 | 71% | 78% | +$1,180 | -$19,613 | 408.6% | $-20,556 (vs do-nothing $-16,785) |
| $102 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $3,320 | $2,901 | 69% | 76% | +$710 | -$25,331 | 527.7% | $-25,331 (vs do-nothing $-21,560) |
| $100 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 3/4 | $3,881 | $3,472 | 68% | 76% | +$1,255 | -$19,808 | 412.7% | $-20,751 (vs do-nothing $-16,980) |
| $101 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/4 | $3,560 | $3,141 | 67% | 75% | +$707 | -$25,611 | 533.6% | $-25,611 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| $99 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/4 | $4,162 | $3,753 | 65% | 75% | +$1,181 | -$20,033 | 417.4% | $-20,976 (vs do-nothing $-17,205) |
| $100 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/4 | $3,060 | $2,651 | 65% | 75% | +$741 | -$19,313 | 402.4% | $-20,256 (vs do-nothing $-16,485) |
| $98.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/4 | $4,162 | $3,753 | 64% | 74% | +$990 | -$20,183 | 420.5% | $-21,126 (vs do-nothing $-17,355) |
| $99 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/4 | $3,090 | $2,681 | 63% | 73% | +$546 | -$19,598 | 408.3% | $-20,541 (vs do-nothing $-16,770) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 2/4 | $3,075 | $2,676 | 62% | 74% | +$825 | -$13,475 | 280.7% | $-15,361 (vs do-nothing $-11,590) |
| $98.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,210 | $2,801 | 62% | 73% | +$556 | -$19,688 | 410.2% | $-20,631 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $97.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 2/4 | $3,262 | $2,863 | 61% | 73% | +$872 | -$13,525 | 281.8% | $-15,411 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $98 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/4 | $3,360 | $2,951 | 61% | 72% | +$592 | -$19,763 | 411.7% | $-20,706 (vs do-nothing $-16,935) |
| $97.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 3/4 | $3,510 | $3,101 | 60% | 72% | +$625 | -$19,838 | 413.3% | $-20,781 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $97 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $3,300 | $2,901 | 60% | 72% | +$761 | -$13,615 | 283.7% | $-15,501 (vs do-nothing $-11,730) |
| $97 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $3,630 | $3,221 | 59% | 71% | +$624 | -$19,928 | 415.2% | $-20,871 (vs do-nothing $-17,100) |
| $96.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $3,375 | $2,976 | 58% | 71% | +$681 | -$13,695 | 285.3% | $-15,581 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| $96.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 3/4 | $3,750 | $3,341 | 58% | 71% | +$603 | -$20,018 | 417.0% | $-20,961 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $96 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/4 | $3,750 | $3,351 | 57% | 71% | +$894 | -$13,695 | 285.3% | $-15,581 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| $96 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/4 | $3,870 | $3,461 | 57% | 70% | +$588 | -$20,108 | 418.9% | $-21,051 (vs do-nothing $-17,280) |
| $95 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 2/4 | $2,920 | $2,521 | 54% | 70% | +$568 | -$13,435 | 279.9% | $-15,321 (vs do-nothing $-11,550) |
| $95 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/4 | $4,050 | $3,651 | 54% | 69% | +$848 | -$13,815 | 287.8% | $-15,701 (vs do-nothing $-11,930) |
| $94 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,601 | 52% | 68% | +$459 | -$13,595 | 283.2% | $-15,481 (vs do-nothing $-11,710) |
| $94 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 2/4 | $4,312 | $3,913 | 51% | 68% | +$735 | -$13,945 | 290.5% | $-15,831 (vs do-nothing $-12,060) |
| $93 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 2/4 | $3,180 | $2,781 | 50% | 67% | +$439 | -$13,705 | 285.5% | $-15,591 (vs do-nothing $-11,820) |
| $93.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/4 | $4,500 | $4,101 | 49% | 67% | +$724 | -$13,995 | 291.6% | $-15,881 (vs do-nothing $-12,110) |
| $93 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/4 | $4,725 | $4,326 | 47% | 67% | +$743 | -$14,035 | 292.4% | $-15,921 (vs do-nothing $-12,150) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.