4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.42 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,554/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $365/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,290 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $105 | 81% | $2,846 | $811 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 7d | 27.9% | 97% | 5% | $88 | $377 | -$2,469 | $18,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 27.9% OTM over spot $95.37 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $88 credit for the 7d cycle → $377/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $122.25) 97% EV / mo +$275 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.1-6.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-826 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,057 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $139 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.58/sh now → $5.36 mid-life (likely $3.68–$6.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 54 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $125 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $46 below CC-SS $168.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $122.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,290 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$18,482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,482 (+$13,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,132, the opportunity cost of earning $377/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,044, position total $-19,788 (+$12,502 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $111 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.4% | 90% | 20% | $300 | $1,286 | -$1,560 | $22,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 16.4% OTM over spot $95.37 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.81 mid) = $300 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $111.81) 91% EV / mo +$706 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.1-5.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,091 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,539 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $3.84–$6.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 410 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $114 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $168.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $111.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,290 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,670 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,670 (+$9,620 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,320, the opportunity cost of earning $1,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,232, position total $-23,976 (+$8,314 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.2% | 87% | 28% | $456 | $1,954 | -$891 | $23,714 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 13.2% OTM over spot $95.37 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.19 mid) = $456 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,954/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $109.19) 88% EV / mo +$1,025 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.5-5.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,501 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,303 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $127 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.22/sh now → $4.40 mid-life (likely $4.09–$6.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 651 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $111 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $109.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,290 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,714 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,714 (+$8,576 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,364, the opportunity cost of earning $1,954/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,276, position total $-25,020 (+$7,270 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 81% | 28% | $664 | $2,846 | — | $24,706 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.1% OTM over spot $95.37 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.75 mid) = $664 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,846/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $106.75) 84% EV / mo +$1,297 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~9.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,336 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,017 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.94/sh now → $4.20 mid-life (likely $4.31–$6.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 847 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $108 (overshoots $2.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $63 below CC-SS $168.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.66 collected) or spot ≥ $106.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,290 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,706 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,706 (+$7,584 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,356, the opportunity cost of earning $2,846/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,268, position total $-26,012 (+$6,278 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.8% | 65% | 74% | $1,340 | $5,743 | +$2,897 | $26,430 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 3.8% OTM over spot $95.37 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.45 mid) = $1,340 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,743/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $102.45) 75% EV / mo +$1,680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.5-5.6] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~22.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,596 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$191 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.41/sh now → $3.83 mid-life (likely $4.82–$6.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,744 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $69 below CC-SS $168.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $102.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,290 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$26,430 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,430 (+$5,860 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,080, the opportunity cost of earning $5,743/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,992, position total $-27,736 (+$4,554 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.105 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,290 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,350
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 4/4 | $2,846 | $2,481 | 81% | 84% | +$1,297 | -$24,706 | 514.7% | $-24,706 (vs do-nothing $-21,356) |
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 4/4 | $3,223 | $2,858 | 79% | 83% | +$1,373 | -$25,018 | 521.2% | $-25,018 (vs do-nothing $-21,668) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 4/4 | $3,651 | $3,286 | 76% | 81% | +$1,482 | -$25,318 | 527.5% | $-25,318 (vs do-nothing $-21,968) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 3/4 | $3,073 | $2,718 | 74% | 80% | +$1,169 | -$19,210 | 400.2% | $-20,048 (vs do-nothing $-16,698) |
| $104 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/4 | $2,786 | $2,421 | 73% | 79% | +$783 | -$24,470 | 509.8% | $-24,470 (vs do-nothing $-21,120) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,635 | 71% | 78% | +$774 | -$24,770 | 516.0% | $-24,770 (vs do-nothing $-21,420) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.68 | 3/4 | $3,446 | $3,091 | 71% | 78% | +$1,176 | -$19,423 | 404.7% | $-20,261 (vs do-nothing $-16,911) |
| $104 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 4/4 | $2,829 | $2,463 | 70% | 77% | +$741 | -$23,790 | 495.6% | $-23,790 (vs do-nothing $-20,440) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/4 | $3,343 | $2,978 | 69% | 77% | +$871 | -$25,010 | 521.0% | $-25,010 (vs do-nothing $-21,660) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 4/4 | $2,943 | $2,578 | 68% | 76% | +$686 | -$24,110 | 502.3% | $-24,110 (vs do-nothing $-20,760) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/4 | $3,857 | $3,503 | 68% | 76% | +$1,221 | -$19,627 | 408.9% | $-20,465 (vs do-nothing $-17,115) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,086 | $2,721 | 67% | 76% | +$758 | -$24,410 | 508.5% | $-24,410 (vs do-nothing $-21,060) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 4/4 | $3,600 | $3,235 | 67% | 75% | +$861 | -$25,290 | 526.9% | $-25,290 (vs do-nothing $-21,940) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 4/4 | $3,457 | $3,092 | 65% | 75% | +$941 | -$24,550 | 511.5% | $-24,550 (vs do-nothing $-21,200) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 2/4 | $2,871 | $2,528 | 65% | 75% | +$840 | -$13,215 | 275.3% | $-14,890 (vs do-nothing $-11,540) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/4 | $3,054 | $2,699 | 64% | 74% | +$782 | -$19,102 | 398.0% | $-19,940 (vs do-nothing $-16,590) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 4/4 | $3,657 | $3,292 | 63% | 74% | +$941 | -$24,810 | 516.9% | $-24,810 (vs do-nothing $-21,460) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/4 | $2,914 | $2,571 | 63% | 74% | +$734 | -$13,305 | 277.2% | $-14,980 (vs do-nothing $-11,630) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/4 | $3,214 | $2,860 | 62% | 73% | +$706 | -$19,327 | 402.7% | $-20,165 (vs do-nothing $-16,815) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/4 | $3,086 | $2,742 | 61% | 73% | +$792 | -$13,365 | 278.4% | $-15,040 (vs do-nothing $-11,690) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/4 | $2,914 | $2,560 | 61% | 73% | +$718 | -$18,787 | 391.4% | $-19,625 (vs do-nothing $-16,275) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 3/4 | $3,182 | $2,828 | 61% | 72% | +$549 | -$19,492 | 406.1% | $-20,330 (vs do-nothing $-16,980) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 3/4 | $3,504 | $3,149 | 60% | 72% | +$740 | -$19,492 | 406.1% | $-20,330 (vs do-nothing $-16,980) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/4 | $3,300 | $2,956 | 60% | 72% | +$799 | -$13,415 | 279.5% | $-15,090 (vs do-nothing $-11,740) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/4 | $3,107 | $2,753 | 59% | 72% | +$743 | -$18,952 | 394.8% | $-19,790 (vs do-nothing $-16,440) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/4 | $3,632 | $3,278 | 59% | 71% | +$734 | -$19,582 | 408.0% | $-20,420 (vs do-nothing $-17,070) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 2/4 | $3,429 | $3,085 | 58% | 71% | +$796 | -$13,485 | 280.9% | $-15,160 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 3/4 | $3,300 | $2,946 | 57% | 71% | +$758 | -$19,117 | 398.3% | $-19,955 (vs do-nothing $-16,605) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/4 | $3,793 | $3,438 | 57% | 71% | +$755 | -$19,657 | 409.5% | $-20,495 (vs do-nothing $-17,145) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 2/4 | $3,643 | $3,299 | 56% | 70% | +$787 | -$13,535 | 282.0% | $-15,210 (vs do-nothing $-11,860) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/4 | $3,954 | $3,599 | 56% | 70% | +$771 | -$19,732 | 411.1% | $-20,570 (vs do-nothing $-17,220) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 3/4 | $3,493 | $3,138 | 55% | 71% | +$763 | -$19,282 | 401.7% | $-20,120 (vs do-nothing $-16,770) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/4 | $4,082 | $3,728 | 55% | 70% | +$750 | -$19,822 | 413.0% | $-20,660 (vs do-nothing $-17,310) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/4 | $3,814 | $3,471 | 55% | 70% | +$805 | -$13,595 | 283.2% | $-15,270 (vs do-nothing $-11,920) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 3/4 | $3,707 | $3,353 | 53% | 70% | +$779 | -$19,432 | 404.8% | $-20,270 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 2/4 | $2,936 | $2,592 | 52% | 69% | +$505 | -$13,315 | 277.4% | $-14,990 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 3/4 | $3,921 | $3,567 | 51% | 69% | +$785 | -$19,582 | 408.0% | $-20,420 (vs do-nothing $-17,070) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/4 | $4,286 | $3,942 | 51% | 68% | +$833 | -$13,685 | 285.1% | $-15,360 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 2/4 | $3,086 | $2,742 | 50% | 68% | +$432 | -$13,445 | 280.1% | $-15,120 (vs do-nothing $-11,770) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 2/4 | $4,757 | $4,413 | 48% | 67% | +$862 | -$13,775 | 287.0% | $-15,450 (vs do-nothing $-12,100) |
| $93.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 2/4 | $4,971 | $4,628 | 46% | 66% | +$842 | -$13,825 | 288.0% | $-15,500 (vs do-nothing $-12,150) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.