4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.03 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,739/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $365/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,180 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $105 | 81% | $2,914 | $883 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 7d | 28.2% | 97% | 5% | $88 | $377 | -$2,537 | $18,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 28.2% OTM over spot $95.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.26 mid) = $88 credit for the 7d cycle → $377/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $122.25) 98% EV / mo +$281 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-5.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,124 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,159 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $138 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $46 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $122.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,180 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$18,323 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,323 (+$13,857 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,191 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,132, the opportunity cost of earning $377/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,044, position total $-19,600 (+$12,580 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $111 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.7% | 91% | 19% | $308 | $1,320 | -$1,594 | $22,503 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 16.7% OTM over spot $95.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.84 mid) = $308 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $111.84) 92% EV / mo +$771 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,415 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,617 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.80/sh now → $4.81 mid-life (likely $4.04–$6.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $114 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $111.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,180 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,503 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,503 (+$9,677 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,191 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,312, the opportunity cost of earning $1,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,224, position total $-23,780 (+$8,400 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.5% | 87% | 27% | $460 | $1,971 | -$943 | $23,551 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 13.5% OTM over spot $95.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.22 mid) = $460 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,971/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $109.22) 89% EV / mo +$1,064 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.8-5.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,882 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,381 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.51/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $4.11–$7.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 620 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $111 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $109.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,180 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,551 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,551 (+$8,629 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,191 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,360, the opportunity cost of earning $1,971/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,272, position total $-24,828 (+$7,352 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.3% | 81% | 27% | $680 | $2,914 | — | $24,531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.3% OTM over spot $95.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.78 mid) = $680 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $106.78) 85% EV / mo +$1,423 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.2-5.8] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,045 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,079 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.22/sh now → $4.40 mid-life (likely $4.45–$6.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $108 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $63 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $106.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,180 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,531 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,531 (+$7,649 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,191 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,340, the opportunity cost of earning $2,914/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,252, position total $-25,808 (+$6,372 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.0% | 65% | 72% | $1,380 | $5,914 | +$3,000 | $26,231 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 4.0% OTM over spot $95.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.60 mid) = $1,380 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $102.60) 76% EV / mo +$2,107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.4-5.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~21.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,484 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$221 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.66/sh now → $4.00 mid-life (likely $5.06–$7.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,685 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $69 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $102.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,180 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$26,231 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,231 (+$5,949 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,191 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,040, the opportunity cost of earning $5,914/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,952, position total $-27,508 (+$4,672 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.104 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,180 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,191
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 4/4 | $2,914 | $2,549 | 81% | 85% | +$1,423 | -$24,531 | 511.1% | $-24,531 (vs do-nothing $-21,340) |
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.92 | 4/4 | $3,291 | $2,926 | 79% | 84% | +$1,536 | -$24,843 | 517.6% | $-24,843 (vs do-nothing $-21,652) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 4/4 | $3,703 | $3,338 | 77% | 82% | +$1,642 | -$25,147 | 523.9% | $-25,147 (vs do-nothing $-21,956) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.43 | 3/4 | $3,124 | $2,770 | 74% | 80% | +$1,314 | -$19,079 | 397.5% | $-19,877 (vs do-nothing $-16,686) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 3/4 | $3,510 | $3,156 | 72% | 79% | +$1,396 | -$19,289 | 401.9% | $-20,087 (vs do-nothing $-16,896) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,086 | $2,721 | 71% | 78% | +$969 | -$24,571 | 511.9% | $-24,571 (vs do-nothing $-21,380) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/4 | $3,343 | $2,978 | 69% | 77% | +$990 | -$24,851 | 517.7% | $-24,851 (vs do-nothing $-21,660) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/4 | $3,921 | $3,567 | 69% | 77% | +$1,460 | -$19,493 | 406.1% | $-20,291 (vs do-nothing $-17,100) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 4/4 | $3,057 | $2,692 | 68% | 77% | +$872 | -$23,871 | 497.3% | $-23,871 (vs do-nothing $-20,680) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $3,557 | $3,192 | 67% | 76% | +$947 | -$25,151 | 524.0% | $-25,151 (vs do-nothing $-21,960) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 4/4 | $3,229 | $2,863 | 67% | 76% | +$865 | -$24,151 | 503.1% | $-24,151 (vs do-nothing $-20,960) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/4 | $2,957 | $2,613 | 65% | 76% | +$1,054 | -$13,115 | 273.2% | $-14,711 (vs do-nothing $-11,520) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 4/4 | $3,457 | $3,092 | 65% | 75% | +$903 | -$24,391 | 508.1% | $-24,391 (vs do-nothing $-21,200) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 3/4 | $2,989 | $2,635 | 65% | 75% | +$821 | -$19,013 | 396.1% | $-19,811 (vs do-nothing $-16,620) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/4 | $2,957 | $2,613 | 64% | 75% | +$910 | -$13,215 | 275.3% | $-14,811 (vs do-nothing $-11,620) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 4/4 | $3,686 | $3,321 | 63% | 74% | +$929 | -$24,631 | 513.1% | $-24,631 (vs do-nothing $-21,440) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/4 | $3,214 | $2,860 | 63% | 74% | +$817 | -$19,208 | 400.2% | $-20,006 (vs do-nothing $-16,815) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/4 | $3,129 | $2,785 | 62% | 74% | +$929 | -$13,275 | 276.6% | $-14,871 (vs do-nothing $-11,680) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 3/4 | $2,936 | $2,581 | 62% | 73% | +$706 | -$18,653 | 388.6% | $-19,451 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/4 | $3,311 | $2,956 | 61% | 73% | +$792 | -$19,313 | 402.4% | $-20,111 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/4 | $3,257 | $2,913 | 61% | 73% | +$897 | -$13,345 | 278.0% | $-14,941 (vs do-nothing $-11,750) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 3/4 | $3,504 | $3,149 | 60% | 73% | +$859 | -$19,373 | 403.6% | $-20,171 (vs do-nothing $-16,980) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/4 | $3,129 | $2,774 | 60% | 72% | +$727 | -$18,818 | 392.0% | $-19,616 (vs do-nothing $-16,425) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/4 | $3,632 | $3,278 | 59% | 72% | +$856 | -$19,463 | 405.5% | $-20,261 (vs do-nothing $-17,070) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 2/4 | $3,471 | $3,128 | 59% | 72% | +$941 | -$13,395 | 279.1% | $-14,991 (vs do-nothing $-11,800) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/4 | $3,793 | $3,438 | 58% | 71% | +$881 | -$19,538 | 407.0% | $-20,336 (vs do-nothing $-17,145) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 3/4 | $3,300 | $2,946 | 58% | 71% | +$716 | -$18,998 | 395.8% | $-19,796 (vs do-nothing $-16,605) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/4 | $3,686 | $3,342 | 57% | 72% | +$975 | -$13,445 | 280.1% | $-15,041 (vs do-nothing $-11,850) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $3,921 | $3,567 | 57% | 71% | +$868 | -$19,628 | 408.9% | $-20,426 (vs do-nothing $-17,235) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 3/4 | $3,514 | $3,160 | 56% | 71% | +$738 | -$19,148 | 398.9% | $-19,946 (vs do-nothing $-16,755) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/4 | $4,082 | $3,728 | 55% | 70% | +$882 | -$19,703 | 410.5% | $-20,501 (vs do-nothing $-17,310) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/4 | $3,943 | $3,599 | 55% | 71% | +$1,044 | -$13,485 | 280.9% | $-15,081 (vs do-nothing $-11,890) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 3/4 | $3,707 | $3,353 | 54% | 70% | +$727 | -$19,313 | 402.4% | $-20,111 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 2/4 | $2,936 | $2,592 | 53% | 69% | +$597 | -$13,235 | 275.7% | $-14,831 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.00 | 3/4 | $3,857 | $3,503 | 52% | 69% | +$663 | -$19,508 | 406.4% | $-20,306 (vs do-nothing $-17,115) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/4 | $4,286 | $3,942 | 52% | 69% | +$980 | -$13,605 | 283.4% | $-15,201 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 2/4 | $3,107 | $2,763 | 50% | 68% | +$550 | -$13,355 | 278.2% | $-14,951 (vs do-nothing $-11,760) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 2/4 | $4,843 | $4,499 | 48% | 68% | +$1,092 | -$13,675 | 284.9% | $-15,271 (vs do-nothing $-12,080) |
| $93.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/4 | $5,014 | $4,671 | 46% | 67% | +$1,026 | -$13,735 | 286.2% | $-15,331 (vs do-nothing $-12,140) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.