4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.58 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,587/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $365/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,094 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $105 | 79% | $3,000 | $861 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 7d | 27.0% | 97% | 6% | $92 | $394 | -$2,606 | $18,539 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 27.0% OTM over spot $96.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $92 credit for the 7d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $122.27) 97% EV / mo +$276 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.0-6.4] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-565 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,003 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $138 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.41/sh now → $5.24 mid-life (likely $4.00–$6.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 60 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $125 (overshoots $3.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $47 below CC-SS $168.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $122.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,094 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,094 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$18,539 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,539 (+$13,555 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,128, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,040, position total $-19,864 (+$12,230 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $112 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.6% | 91% | 20% | $292 | $1,251 | -$1,749 | $22,339 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 16.6% OTM over spot $96.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.79 mid) = $292 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,251/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $112.80) 91% EV / mo +$670 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.5-5.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,273 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,530 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $129 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.44/sh now → $4.56 mid-life (likely $4.21–$7.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 370 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $115 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $57 below CC-SS $168.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.73 collected) or spot ≥ $112.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,094 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,094 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$22,339 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,339 (+$9,755 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,928, the opportunity cost of earning $1,251/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,840, position total $-23,664 (+$8,430 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $109 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.5% | 87% | 28% | $440 | $1,886 | -$1,114 | $23,391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $109 13.5% OTM over spot $96.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid) = $440 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $109) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $110.14) 88% EV / mo +$934 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.3-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,143 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,304 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.16/sh now → $4.36 mid-life (likely $3.80–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 533 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $112 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $109 is $60 below CC-SS $168.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $110.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,094 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,094 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $109): -$23,391 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,391 (+$8,703 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,980, the opportunity cost of earning $1,886/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,892, position total $-24,716 (+$7,378 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.3% | 79% | 30% | $700 | $3,000 | — | $24,731 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 9.3% OTM over spot $96.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.83 mid) = $700 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $106.83) 83% EV / mo +$1,187 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.2-5.5] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~10.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,422 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$942 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.80/sh now → $4.11 mid-life (likely $4.25–$6.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 912 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $108 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $64 below CC-SS $168.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $106.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,094 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,094 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,731 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,731 (+$7,363 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,320, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,232, position total $-26,056 (+$6,038 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.1% | 62% | 78% | $1,380 | $5,914 | +$2,914 | $26,451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 3.1% OTM over spot $96.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.60 mid) = $1,380 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $102.60) 73% EV / mo +$1,472 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.4-6.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~25.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,628 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$115 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $4.86–$6.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,848 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $70 below CC-SS $168.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $102.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,094 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,094 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$26,451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,451 (+$5,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,040, the opportunity cost of earning $5,914/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,952, position total $-27,776 (+$4,318 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,094 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,411
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,635 | 79% | 83% | +$1,187 | -$24,731 | 515.2% | $-24,731 (vs do-nothing $-21,320) |
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 4/4 | $3,463 | $3,098 | 77% | 82% | +$1,343 | -$25,023 | 521.3% | $-25,023 (vs do-nothing $-21,612) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 3/4 | $2,880 | $2,526 | 74% | 80% | +$1,025 | -$19,001 | 395.9% | $-19,854 (vs do-nothing $-16,443) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 3/4 | $3,253 | $2,898 | 72% | 78% | +$1,095 | -$19,214 | 400.3% | $-20,067 (vs do-nothing $-16,656) |
| $104 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,635 | 71% | 78% | +$817 | -$24,431 | 509.0% | $-24,431 (vs do-nothing $-21,020) |
| $105 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/4 | $2,800 | $2,435 | 70% | 77% | +$765 | -$23,471 | 489.0% | $-23,471 (vs do-nothing $-20,060) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,086 | $2,721 | 69% | 77% | +$667 | -$24,791 | 516.5% | $-24,791 (vs do-nothing $-21,380) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 3/4 | $3,613 | $3,258 | 69% | 77% | +$1,110 | -$19,430 | 404.8% | $-20,283 (vs do-nothing $-16,872) |
| $104 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/4 | $2,971 | $2,606 | 69% | 76% | +$771 | -$23,751 | 494.8% | $-23,751 (vs do-nothing $-20,340) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/4 | $3,471 | $3,106 | 67% | 75% | +$798 | -$25,011 | 521.1% | $-25,011 (vs do-nothing $-21,600) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 4/4 | $3,114 | $2,749 | 67% | 76% | +$738 | -$24,051 | 501.1% | $-24,051 (vs do-nothing $-20,640) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/4 | $4,050 | $3,696 | 66% | 75% | +$1,157 | -$19,628 | 408.9% | $-20,481 (vs do-nothing $-17,070) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 4/4 | $3,400 | $3,035 | 65% | 75% | +$835 | -$24,251 | 505.2% | $-24,251 (vs do-nothing $-20,840) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/4 | $2,893 | $2,538 | 65% | 74% | +$680 | -$18,923 | 394.2% | $-19,776 (vs do-nothing $-16,365) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/4 | $3,543 | $3,178 | 63% | 74% | +$777 | -$24,551 | 511.5% | $-24,551 (vs do-nothing $-21,140) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 3/4 | $3,150 | $2,796 | 63% | 73% | +$728 | -$19,103 | 398.0% | $-19,956 (vs do-nothing $-16,545) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/4 | $2,957 | $2,613 | 62% | 73% | +$736 | -$13,225 | 275.5% | $-14,931 (vs do-nothing $-11,520) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/4 | $2,829 | $2,474 | 62% | 73% | +$594 | -$18,593 | 387.4% | $-19,446 (vs do-nothing $-16,035) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/4 | $3,129 | $2,785 | 61% | 72% | +$749 | -$13,285 | 276.8% | $-14,991 (vs do-nothing $-11,580) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/4 | $3,311 | $2,956 | 60% | 72% | +$644 | -$19,328 | 402.7% | $-20,181 (vs do-nothing $-16,770) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 3/4 | $3,043 | $2,688 | 60% | 72% | +$638 | -$18,743 | 390.5% | $-19,596 (vs do-nothing $-16,185) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/4 | $3,471 | $3,117 | 59% | 72% | +$675 | -$19,403 | 404.2% | $-20,256 (vs do-nothing $-16,845) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/4 | $3,257 | $2,913 | 59% | 72% | +$709 | -$13,355 | 278.2% | $-15,061 (vs do-nothing $-11,650) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,246 | 58% | 71% | +$669 | -$19,493 | 406.1% | $-20,346 (vs do-nothing $-16,935) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/4 | $3,171 | $2,817 | 58% | 71% | +$586 | -$18,953 | 394.9% | $-19,806 (vs do-nothing $-16,395) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/4 | $3,386 | $3,042 | 57% | 71% | +$661 | -$13,425 | 279.7% | $-15,131 (vs do-nothing $-11,720) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 3/4 | $3,761 | $3,406 | 57% | 71% | +$690 | -$19,568 | 407.7% | $-20,421 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 3/4 | $3,364 | $3,010 | 56% | 70% | +$588 | -$19,118 | 398.3% | $-19,971 (vs do-nothing $-16,560) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $3,771 | $3,428 | 56% | 70% | +$861 | -$13,435 | 279.9% | $-15,141 (vs do-nothing $-11,730) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $3,921 | $3,567 | 56% | 70% | +$707 | -$19,643 | 409.2% | $-20,496 (vs do-nothing $-17,085) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 3/4 | $4,050 | $3,696 | 54% | 69% | +$686 | -$19,733 | 411.1% | $-20,586 (vs do-nothing $-17,175) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 3/4 | $3,621 | $3,267 | 54% | 69% | +$644 | -$19,238 | 400.8% | $-20,091 (vs do-nothing $-16,680) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/4 | $3,900 | $3,556 | 54% | 69% | +$794 | -$13,505 | 281.4% | $-15,211 (vs do-nothing $-11,800) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 2/4 | $2,807 | $2,463 | 53% | 69% | +$462 | -$13,205 | 275.1% | $-14,911 (vs do-nothing $-11,500) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.85 | 3/4 | $3,793 | $3,438 | 52% | 69% | +$604 | -$19,418 | 404.5% | $-20,271 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/4 | $4,114 | $3,771 | 52% | 68% | +$803 | -$13,555 | 282.4% | $-15,261 (vs do-nothing $-11,850) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 2/4 | $3,021 | $2,678 | 51% | 68% | +$460 | -$13,305 | 277.2% | $-15,011 (vs do-nothing $-11,600) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 2/4 | $4,543 | $4,199 | 49% | 67% | +$794 | -$13,655 | 284.5% | $-15,361 (vs do-nothing $-11,950) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.