4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.03 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,623/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $363/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,234 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $105 | 82% | $2,829 | $928 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $119 | 17 Jul | 7d | 25.2% | 98% | 5% | $93 | $399 | -$2,430 | $14,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $119 25.2% OTM over spot $95.04 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid) = $93 credit for the 7d cycle → $399/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $119) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $119.34) 98% EV / mo +$341 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-6.1] median · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-610 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,471 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.37/sh now → $5.21 mid-life (likely $3.67–$7.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 100 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $122 (overshoots $3.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $119 is $49 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $119.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $119)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,234 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,234 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $119): -$14,617 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $160): -$797 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,414 (+$16,820 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,225, the opportunity cost of earning $399/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,406, position total $-18,959 (+$13,275 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $111 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.8% | 91% | 19% | $308 | $1,320 | -$1,509 | $22,505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 16.8% OTM over spot $95.04 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid) = $308 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $111.83) 92% EV / mo +$764 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.2-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,495 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,554 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.65 mid-life (likely $3.87–$6.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $114 (overshoots $2.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $111.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,234 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,234 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,505 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,505 (+$9,729 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,316, the opportunity cost of earning $1,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,224, position total $-23,783 (+$8,451 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.6% | 87% | 27% | $444 | $1,903 | -$926 | $23,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 13.6% OTM over spot $95.04 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.16 mid) = $444 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,903/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $109.16) 89% EV / mo +$994 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.6-5.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,629 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,337 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.29/sh now → $4.45 mid-life (likely $4.03–$6.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 614 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $111 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $109.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,234 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,234 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,569 (+$8,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,380, the opportunity cost of earning $1,903/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,288, position total $-24,847 (+$7,387 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.5% | 82% | 26% | $660 | $2,829 | — | $24,553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.5% OTM over spot $95.04 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.70 mid) = $660 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,829/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $106.70) 85% EV / mo +$1,344 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,765 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,042 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.01/sh now → $4.25 mid-life (likely $4.31–$6.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $108 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $63 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $106.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,234 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,234 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,553 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,553 (+$7,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,364, the opportunity cost of earning $2,829/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,272, position total $-25,831 (+$6,403 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 64% | 75% | $1,360 | $5,829 | +$3,000 | $26,453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98.50 3.6% OTM over spot $95.04 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.50 mid) = $1,360 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,829/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $102.00) 75% EV / mo +$1,776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.6-5.9] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~23.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,276 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$176 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.43/sh now → $3.84 mid-life (likely $4.98–$6.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,748 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98.50 is $70 below CC-SS $168.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $102.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,234 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,234 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98.50): -$26,453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,453 (+$5,781 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,264, the opportunity cost of earning $5,829/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,172, position total $-27,731 (+$4,503 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.104 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,234 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,189
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 4/4 | $2,829 | $2,465 | 82% | 85% | +$1,344 | -$24,553 | 511.5% | $-24,553 (vs do-nothing $-21,364) |
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 4/4 | $3,171 | $2,808 | 79% | 83% | +$1,427 | -$24,873 | 518.2% | $-24,873 (vs do-nothing $-21,684) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 4/4 | $3,463 | $3,099 | 77% | 82% | +$1,417 | -$25,205 | 525.1% | $-25,205 (vs do-nothing $-22,016) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 3/4 | $2,931 | $2,581 | 74% | 80% | +$1,136 | -$19,126 | 398.5% | $-19,923 (vs do-nothing $-16,734) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.58 | 3/4 | $3,317 | $2,967 | 72% | 79% | +$1,222 | -$19,336 | 402.8% | $-20,133 (vs do-nothing $-16,944) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 4/4 | $3,043 | $2,679 | 71% | 78% | +$924 | -$24,593 | 512.4% | $-24,593 (vs do-nothing $-21,404) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/4 | $3,257 | $2,894 | 69% | 77% | +$905 | -$24,893 | 518.6% | $-24,893 (vs do-nothing $-21,704) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.98 | 3/4 | $3,831 | $3,481 | 69% | 77% | +$1,394 | -$19,516 | 406.6% | $-20,313 (vs do-nothing $-17,124) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/4 | $2,971 | $2,608 | 69% | 77% | +$800 | -$23,933 | 498.6% | $-23,933 (vs do-nothing $-20,744) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $3,557 | $3,194 | 67% | 76% | +$952 | -$25,153 | 524.0% | $-25,153 (vs do-nothing $-21,964) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/4 | $3,171 | $2,808 | 67% | 76% | +$824 | -$24,193 | 504.0% | $-24,193 (vs do-nothing $-21,004) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/4 | $4,050 | $3,699 | 66% | 75% | +$1,223 | -$19,765 | 411.8% | $-20,562 (vs do-nothing $-17,373) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 4/4 | $3,343 | $2,979 | 65% | 75% | +$808 | -$24,473 | 509.9% | $-24,473 (vs do-nothing $-21,284) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/4 | $2,861 | $2,510 | 65% | 75% | +$700 | -$19,075 | 397.4% | $-19,872 (vs do-nothing $-16,683) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/4 | $2,914 | $2,577 | 64% | 75% | +$888 | -$13,227 | 275.6% | $-14,821 (vs do-nothing $-11,632) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/4 | $3,543 | $3,179 | 64% | 74% | +$956 | -$24,733 | 515.3% | $-24,733 (vs do-nothing $-21,544) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,118 | $2,767 | 63% | 74% | +$735 | -$19,255 | 401.1% | $-20,052 (vs do-nothing $-16,863) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 2/4 | $3,043 | $2,705 | 63% | 74% | +$866 | -$13,297 | 277.0% | $-14,891 (vs do-nothing $-11,702) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 3/4 | $2,850 | $2,499 | 62% | 74% | +$754 | -$18,715 | 389.9% | $-19,512 (vs do-nothing $-16,323) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/4 | $3,246 | $2,896 | 62% | 73% | +$746 | -$19,345 | 403.0% | $-20,142 (vs do-nothing $-16,953) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 2/4 | $3,214 | $2,877 | 61% | 73% | +$878 | -$13,357 | 278.3% | $-14,951 (vs do-nothing $-11,762) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 3/4 | $3,375 | $3,024 | 61% | 73% | +$752 | -$19,435 | 404.9% | $-20,232 (vs do-nothing $-17,043) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/4 | $3,000 | $2,649 | 60% | 73% | +$740 | -$18,910 | 394.0% | $-19,707 (vs do-nothing $-16,518) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 3/4 | $3,504 | $3,153 | 59% | 72% | +$754 | -$19,525 | 406.8% | $-20,322 (vs do-nothing $-17,133) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 2/4 | $3,471 | $3,134 | 59% | 72% | +$967 | -$13,397 | 279.1% | $-14,991 (vs do-nothing $-11,802) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/4 | $3,632 | $3,282 | 58% | 71% | +$752 | -$19,615 | 408.6% | $-20,412 (vs do-nothing $-17,223) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 3/4 | $3,193 | $2,842 | 58% | 72% | +$758 | -$19,075 | 397.4% | $-19,872 (vs do-nothing $-16,683) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 2/4 | $3,557 | $3,219 | 57% | 71% | +$876 | -$13,477 | 280.8% | $-15,071 (vs do-nothing $-11,882) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 3/4 | $3,729 | $3,378 | 57% | 71% | +$713 | -$19,720 | 410.8% | $-20,517 (vs do-nothing $-17,328) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 3/4 | $3,407 | $3,057 | 56% | 71% | +$787 | -$19,225 | 400.5% | $-20,022 (vs do-nothing $-16,833) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/4 | $3,900 | $3,562 | 56% | 71% | +$1,032 | -$13,497 | 281.2% | $-15,091 (vs do-nothing $-11,902) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $3,921 | $3,571 | 56% | 70% | +$765 | -$19,780 | 412.1% | $-20,577 (vs do-nothing $-17,388) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 3/4 | $3,621 | $3,271 | 54% | 70% | +$807 | -$19,375 | 403.6% | $-20,172 (vs do-nothing $-16,983) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 2/4 | $2,829 | $2,491 | 53% | 69% | +$528 | -$13,287 | 276.8% | $-14,881 (vs do-nothing $-11,692) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 2/4 | $4,157 | $3,819 | 52% | 69% | +$888 | -$13,637 | 284.1% | $-15,231 (vs do-nothing $-12,042) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 3/4 | $3,750 | $3,399 | 52% | 69% | +$730 | -$19,585 | 408.0% | $-20,382 (vs do-nothing $-17,193) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 2/4 | $3,021 | $2,684 | 51% | 68% | +$512 | -$13,397 | 279.1% | $-14,991 (vs do-nothing $-11,802) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 2/4 | $4,671 | $4,334 | 49% | 67% | +$962 | -$13,717 | 285.8% | $-15,311 (vs do-nothing $-12,122) |
| $93.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/4 | $4,800 | $4,462 | 47% | 67% | +$856 | -$13,787 | 287.2% | $-15,381 (vs do-nothing $-12,192) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.