4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.47 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,374/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $341/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,660 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $103 | 79% | $2,880 | $769 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 7d | 29.5% | 98% | 5% | $80 | $343 | -$2,537 | $18,510 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 29.5% OTM over spot $94.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $80 credit for the 7d cycle → $343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $122.22) 98% EV / mo +$250 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.1-6.1] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,158 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,029 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $139 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.46/sh now → $5.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $46 below CC-SS $168.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $122.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,660 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$18,510 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,510 (+$14,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,370 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,140, the opportunity cost of earning $343/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,028, position total $-19,746 (+$12,914 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $110 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.8% | 91% | 19% | $288 | $1,234 | -$1,646 | $23,102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $110 16.8% OTM over spot $94.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.75 mid) = $288 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,234/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $110.75) 92% EV / mo +$669 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.5-5.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,357 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,493 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $127 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.29/sh now → $4.45 mid-life (likely $3.71–$6.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 357 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $113 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $58 below CC-SS $168.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $110.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,660 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$23,102 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,102 (+$9,558 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,370 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,732, the opportunity cost of earning $1,234/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,620, position total $-24,338 (+$8,322 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $106 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.6% | 85% | 31% | $480 | $2,057 | -$823 | $24,510 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 12.6% OTM over spot $94.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.25 mid) = $480 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,057/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $107.25) 87% EV / mo +$969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.4-5.6] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,836 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,197 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.93/sh now → $4.19 mid-life (likely $3.96–$6.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 639 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $109 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $168.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $107.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,660 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,510 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,510 (+$8,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,370 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,140, the opportunity cost of earning $2,057/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,028, position total $-25,746 (+$6,914 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $103 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.4% | 79% | 31% | $672 | $2,880 | — | $25,518 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 9.4% OTM over spot $94.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.79 mid) = $672 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $104.80) 83% EV / mo +$1,108 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.4-6.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~11.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,493 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$929 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.66/sh now → $4.00 mid-life (likely $3.97–$6.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 923 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $168.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.68 collected) or spot ≥ $104.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,660 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$25,518 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,518 (+$7,142 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,370 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,148, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,036, position total $-26,754 (+$5,906 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $97.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 64% | 76% | $1,260 | $5,400 | +$2,520 | $27,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $97.50 3.5% OTM over spot $94.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.35 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $100.85) 74% EV / mo +$1,254 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.6-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~24.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,356 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$206 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.18/sh now → $3.67 mid-life (likely $4.70–$6.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,789 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97.50 is $71 below CC-SS $168.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.79/sh (~25% of the $3.15 collected) or spot ≥ $100.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,660 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $97.50): -$27,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,130 (+$5,530 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,370 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,760, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,648, position total $-28,366 (+$4,294 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.099 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,660 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,370
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 4/4 | $2,880 | $2,539 | 79% | 83% | +$1,108 | -$25,518 | 531.6% | $-25,518 (vs do-nothing $-22,148) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 4/4 | $3,137 | $2,796 | 77% | 81% | +$1,059 | -$25,858 | 538.7% | $-25,858 (vs do-nothing $-22,488) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 3/4 | $2,739 | $2,408 | 74% | 80% | +$915 | -$19,603 | 408.4% | $-20,446 (vs do-nothing $-17,076) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/4 | $2,786 | $2,445 | 73% | 79% | +$845 | -$24,890 | 518.5% | $-24,890 (vs do-nothing $-21,520) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 3/4 | $3,099 | $2,768 | 71% | 78% | +$971 | -$19,819 | 412.9% | $-20,662 (vs do-nothing $-17,292) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/4 | $2,914 | $2,573 | 71% | 78% | +$760 | -$25,230 | 525.6% | $-25,230 (vs do-nothing $-21,860) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/4 | $2,714 | $2,373 | 70% | 78% | +$714 | -$24,290 | 506.0% | $-24,290 (vs do-nothing $-20,920) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 4/4 | $3,214 | $2,873 | 69% | 77% | +$826 | -$25,490 | 531.0% | $-25,490 (vs do-nothing $-22,120) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/4 | $2,857 | $2,516 | 69% | 77% | +$692 | -$24,590 | 512.3% | $-24,590 (vs do-nothing $-21,220) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 3/4 | $3,536 | $3,205 | 68% | 76% | +$1,061 | -$20,017 | 417.0% | $-20,860 (vs do-nothing $-17,490) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $3,557 | $3,216 | 67% | 76% | +$914 | -$25,730 | 536.0% | $-25,730 (vs do-nothing $-22,360) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 3/4 | $3,639 | $3,308 | 67% | 76% | +$974 | -$20,143 | 419.7% | $-20,986 (vs do-nothing $-17,616) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,086 | $2,745 | 67% | 76% | +$745 | -$24,830 | 517.3% | $-24,830 (vs do-nothing $-21,460) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/4 | $3,857 | $3,527 | 65% | 75% | +$991 | -$20,242 | 421.7% | $-21,085 (vs do-nothing $-17,715) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 4/4 | $3,286 | $2,945 | 65% | 75% | +$757 | -$25,090 | 522.7% | $-25,090 (vs do-nothing $-21,720) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 3/4 | $2,796 | $2,466 | 65% | 74% | +$606 | -$19,537 | 407.0% | $-20,380 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/4 | $2,700 | $2,380 | 64% | 74% | +$627 | -$13,565 | 282.6% | $-15,250 (vs do-nothing $-11,880) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/4 | $2,957 | $2,627 | 64% | 74% | +$656 | -$19,612 | 408.6% | $-20,455 (vs do-nothing $-17,085) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 4/4 | $3,486 | $3,145 | 63% | 74% | +$756 | -$25,350 | 528.1% | $-25,350 (vs do-nothing $-21,980) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/4 | $3,021 | $2,691 | 63% | 73% | +$605 | -$19,732 | 411.1% | $-20,575 (vs do-nothing $-17,205) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/4 | $2,914 | $2,595 | 62% | 73% | +$689 | -$13,615 | 283.6% | $-15,300 (vs do-nothing $-11,930) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/4 | $2,743 | $2,412 | 62% | 73% | +$535 | -$19,222 | 400.5% | $-20,065 (vs do-nothing $-16,695) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,118 | $2,787 | 61% | 72% | +$581 | -$19,837 | 413.3% | $-20,680 (vs do-nothing $-17,310) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/4 | $3,086 | $2,766 | 60% | 72% | +$722 | -$13,675 | 284.9% | $-15,360 (vs do-nothing $-11,990) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/4 | $3,279 | $2,948 | 60% | 72% | +$617 | -$19,912 | 414.8% | $-20,755 (vs do-nothing $-17,385) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 3/4 | $2,936 | $2,605 | 60% | 72% | +$558 | -$19,387 | 403.9% | $-20,230 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,439 | $3,109 | 59% | 71% | +$649 | -$19,987 | 416.4% | $-20,830 (vs do-nothing $-17,460) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/4 | $3,257 | $2,937 | 59% | 71% | +$725 | -$13,735 | 286.1% | $-15,420 (vs do-nothing $-12,050) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/4 | $3,536 | $3,205 | 58% | 71% | +$611 | -$20,092 | 418.6% | $-20,935 (vs do-nothing $-17,565) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 3/4 | $3,086 | $2,755 | 58% | 71% | +$527 | -$19,582 | 408.0% | $-20,425 (vs do-nothing $-17,055) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 3/4 | $3,321 | $2,991 | 56% | 70% | +$571 | -$19,717 | 410.8% | $-20,560 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/4 | $3,857 | $3,527 | 55% | 70% | +$649 | -$20,242 | 421.7% | $-21,085 (vs do-nothing $-17,715) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/4 | $3,600 | $3,280 | 55% | 69% | +$705 | -$13,855 | 288.6% | $-15,540 (vs do-nothing $-12,170) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/4 | $3,471 | $3,141 | 54% | 69% | +$519 | -$19,912 | 414.8% | $-20,755 (vs do-nothing $-17,385) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 2/4 | $2,764 | $2,445 | 53% | 68% | +$423 | -$13,605 | 283.4% | $-15,290 (vs do-nothing $-11,920) |
| $93 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/4 | $3,686 | $3,355 | 52% | 68% | +$521 | -$20,062 | 418.0% | $-20,905 (vs do-nothing $-17,535) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/4 | $3,986 | $3,666 | 52% | 68% | +$690 | -$13,965 | 290.9% | $-15,650 (vs do-nothing $-12,280) |
| $93 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 2/4 | $2,914 | $2,595 | 50% | 67% | +$357 | -$13,735 | 286.1% | $-15,420 (vs do-nothing $-12,050) |
| $93.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 2/4 | $4,200 | $3,880 | 50% | 67% | +$691 | -$14,015 | 292.0% | $-15,700 (vs do-nothing $-12,330) |
| $93 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/4 | $4,414 | $4,095 | 48% | 66% | +$682 | -$14,065 | 293.0% | $-15,750 (vs do-nothing $-12,380) |
| $92.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/4 | $4,629 | $4,309 | 46% | 66% | +$663 | -$14,115 | 294.1% | $-15,800 (vs do-nothing $-12,430) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.