4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $170.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $4,714/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $341/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,660 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $104 | 78% | $2,537 | $670 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 7d | 27.7% | 97% | 6% | $80 | $343 | -$2,194 | $19,119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 27.7% OTM over spot $95.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $80 credit for the 7d cycle → $343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $122.22) 97% EV / mo +$211 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [1.8-6.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-524 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,655 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $142 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.34 mid-life (likely $2.89–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 54 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $125 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $48 below CC-SS $170.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $122.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,749 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$19,119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,030 (+$13,630 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,140, the opportunity cost of earning $343/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,028, position total $-20,326 (+$12,334 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $112 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.3% | 91% | 19% | $220 | $943 | -$1,594 | $22,979 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 17.3% OTM over spot $95.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $220 credit for the 7d cycle → $943/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $112.64) 92% EV / mo +$385 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.4-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,767 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,288 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $130 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $3.37–$5.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $115 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $58 below CC-SS $170.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $112.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,749 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$22,979 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,890 (+$9,770 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,000, the opportunity cost of earning $943/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,888, position total $-24,186 (+$8,474 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.1% | 86% | 29% | $364 | $1,560 | -$977 | $24,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 13.1% OTM over spot $95.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.00 mid) = $364 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $109.00) 87% EV / mo +$516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.3-6.0] median · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,836 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,058 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.03/sh now → $3.55 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 649 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $111 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $62 below CC-SS $170.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $109.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,749 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$24,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,346 (+$8,314 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,456, the opportunity cost of earning $1,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,344, position total $-25,642 (+$7,018 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $104 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.9% | 78% | 33% | $592 | $2,537 | — | $25,807 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 8.9% OTM over spot $95.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.61 mid) = $592 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,537/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $105.61) 82% EV / mo +$585 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.4] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,867 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$746 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.73/sh now → $3.34 mid-life (likely $3.51–$5.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 977 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $66 below CC-SS $170.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.48 collected) or spot ≥ $105.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,749 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$25,807 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,718 (+$6,942 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,828, the opportunity cost of earning $2,537/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,716, position total $-27,014 (+$5,646 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.7% | 64% | 75% | $1,100 | $4,714 | +$2,177 | $27,299 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 3.7% OTM over spot $95.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.83 mid) = $1,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $101.83) 73% EV / mo +$616 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.5-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~23.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,490 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$136 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.37/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $3.91–$5.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,760 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $71 below CC-SS $170.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.69/sh (~25% of the $2.75 collected) or spot ≥ $101.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $130.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,749 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$27,299 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,210 (+$5,450 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,320, the opportunity cost of earning $4,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,208, position total $-28,506 (+$4,154 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.099 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,749 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,890
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 4/4 | $2,537 | $2,196 | 78% | 82% | +$585 | -$25,807 | 537.6% | $-25,718 (vs do-nothing $-21,828) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 4/4 | $2,880 | $2,539 | 76% | 80% | +$604 | -$26,127 | 544.3% | $-26,038 (vs do-nothing $-22,148) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 4/4 | $3,137 | $2,796 | 73% | 78% | +$489 | -$26,467 | 551.4% | $-26,378 (vs do-nothing $-22,488) |
| $104 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 4/4 | $2,503 | $2,162 | 72% | 78% | +$437 | -$25,231 | 525.6% | $-25,142 (vs do-nothing $-21,252) |
| $105 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $2,371 | $2,030 | 71% | 77% | +$428 | -$24,339 | 507.1% | $-24,250 (vs do-nothing $-20,360) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/4 | $2,786 | $2,445 | 70% | 77% | +$499 | -$25,499 | 531.2% | $-25,410 (vs do-nothing $-21,520) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 3/4 | $2,739 | $2,408 | 70% | 76% | +$434 | -$20,060 | 417.9% | $-20,966 (vs do-nothing $-17,076) |
| $104 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 4/4 | $2,514 | $2,173 | 69% | 76% | +$414 | -$24,639 | 513.3% | $-24,550 (vs do-nothing $-20,660) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/4 | $2,914 | $2,573 | 68% | 75% | +$386 | -$25,839 | 538.3% | $-25,750 (vs do-nothing $-21,860) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/4 | $2,714 | $2,373 | 68% | 76% | +$446 | -$24,899 | 518.7% | $-24,810 (vs do-nothing $-20,920) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 3/4 | $3,099 | $2,768 | 67% | 74% | +$433 | -$20,276 | 422.4% | $-21,182 (vs do-nothing $-17,292) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 3/4 | $2,411 | $2,080 | 66% | 74% | +$318 | -$19,574 | 407.8% | $-20,480 (vs do-nothing $-16,590) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/4 | $2,857 | $2,516 | 66% | 75% | +$409 | -$25,199 | 525.0% | $-25,110 (vs do-nothing $-21,220) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,086 | $2,745 | 64% | 74% | +$445 | -$25,439 | 530.0% | $-25,350 (vs do-nothing $-21,460) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 2/4 | $2,357 | $2,037 | 64% | 73% | +$308 | -$13,649 | 284.4% | $-15,550 (vs do-nothing $-11,660) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 3/4 | $2,668 | $2,337 | 64% | 73% | +$361 | -$19,754 | 411.5% | $-20,660 (vs do-nothing $-16,770) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 3/4 | $2,464 | $2,134 | 63% | 73% | +$331 | -$19,274 | 401.5% | $-20,180 (vs do-nothing $-16,290) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 2/4 | $2,426 | $2,106 | 63% | 72% | +$229 | -$13,733 | 286.1% | $-15,634 (vs do-nothing $-11,744) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 3/4 | $2,796 | $2,466 | 62% | 72% | +$258 | -$19,994 | 416.5% | $-20,900 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/4 | $2,571 | $2,252 | 61% | 71% | +$218 | -$13,799 | 287.5% | $-15,700 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $2,614 | $2,284 | 61% | 72% | +$318 | -$19,469 | 405.6% | $-20,375 (vs do-nothing $-16,485) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/4 | $2,957 | $2,627 | 61% | 71% | +$297 | -$20,069 | 418.1% | $-20,975 (vs do-nothing $-17,085) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/4 | $3,021 | $2,691 | 59% | 70% | +$234 | -$20,189 | 420.6% | $-21,095 (vs do-nothing $-17,205) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/4 | $2,700 | $2,380 | 59% | 70% | +$182 | -$13,869 | 288.9% | $-15,770 (vs do-nothing $-11,880) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/4 | $2,743 | $2,412 | 59% | 71% | +$273 | -$19,679 | 410.0% | $-20,585 (vs do-nothing $-16,695) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,118 | $2,787 | 58% | 69% | +$198 | -$20,294 | 422.8% | $-21,200 (vs do-nothing $-17,310) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/4 | $2,914 | $2,595 | 58% | 69% | +$222 | -$13,919 | 290.0% | $-15,820 (vs do-nothing $-11,930) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 3/4 | $2,936 | $2,605 | 57% | 70% | +$283 | -$19,844 | 413.4% | $-20,750 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/4 | $3,279 | $2,948 | 57% | 69% | +$222 | -$20,369 | 424.4% | $-21,275 (vs do-nothing $-17,385) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/4 | $3,086 | $2,766 | 56% | 68% | +$211 | -$13,979 | 291.2% | $-15,880 (vs do-nothing $-11,990) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,439 | $3,109 | 56% | 69% | +$241 | -$20,444 | 425.9% | $-21,350 (vs do-nothing $-17,460) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 3/4 | $3,086 | $2,755 | 55% | 69% | +$239 | -$20,039 | 417.5% | $-20,945 (vs do-nothing $-17,055) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 2/4 | $2,357 | $2,037 | 55% | 68% | +$127 | -$13,699 | 285.4% | $-15,600 (vs do-nothing $-11,710) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/4 | $3,257 | $2,937 | 54% | 67% | +$191 | -$14,039 | 292.5% | $-15,940 (vs do-nothing $-12,050) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 3/4 | $3,321 | $2,991 | 53% | 68% | +$270 | -$20,174 | 420.3% | $-21,080 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/4 | $2,571 | $2,252 | 52% | 67% | +$136 | -$13,799 | 287.5% | $-15,700 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/4 | $3,471 | $3,141 | 51% | 67% | +$205 | -$20,369 | 424.4% | $-21,275 (vs do-nothing $-17,385) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/4 | $3,600 | $3,280 | 51% | 65% | +$124 | -$14,159 | 295.0% | $-16,060 (vs do-nothing $-12,170) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 2/4 | $2,764 | $2,445 | 50% | 66% | +$110 | -$13,909 | 289.8% | $-15,810 (vs do-nothing $-11,920) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/4 | $3,986 | $3,666 | 47% | 64% | +$62 | -$14,269 | 297.3% | $-16,170 (vs do-nothing $-12,280) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.