4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.32 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $4,967/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $336/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,448 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $107 | 78% | $2,777 | $558 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $125 | 17 Jul | 7d | 27.3% | 97% | 7% | $80 | $343 | -$2,434 | $16,846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $125 27.3% OTM over spot $98.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $80 credit for the 7d cycle → $343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $125) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $125.22) 97% EV / mo +$198 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.0] median · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-559 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,881 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $143 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.93/sh now → $4.90 mid-life (likely $3.46–$6.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 78 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $128 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $125 is $42 below CC-SS $167.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $125.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,448 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,740 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $125): -$16,846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,554 (+$13,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,940, the opportunity cost of earning $343/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,912, position total $-17,890 (+$12,558 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $114 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.1% | 90% | 20% | $260 | $1,114 | -$1,663 | $21,066 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $114 16.1% OTM over spot $98.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.72 mid) = $260 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $114.72) 91% EV / mo +$537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-5.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,371 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,428 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $131 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.97/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $3.55–$6.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 416 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $117 (overshoots $2.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $53 below CC-SS $167.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $114.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,448 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,740 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$21,066 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,774 (+$9,674 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,160, the opportunity cost of earning $1,114/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,132, position total $-22,110 (+$8,338 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $110 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.0% | 84% | 34% | $444 | $1,903 | -$874 | $22,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $110 12.0% OTM over spot $98.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.18 mid) = $444 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,903/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $111.17) 86% EV / mo +$588 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.4-5.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,406 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,150 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $129 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.63/sh now → $3.98 mid-life (likely $3.76–$6.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 698 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $113 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $57 below CC-SS $167.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $111.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,448 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,740 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$22,482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,190 (+$8,258 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,576, the opportunity cost of earning $1,903/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,548, position total $-23,526 (+$6,922 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $107 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.0% | 78% | 34% | $648 | $2,777 | — | $23,478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $107 9.0% OTM over spot $98.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.70 mid) = $648 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,777/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $108.70) 82% EV / mo +$719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~11.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,145 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$876 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $129 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.39/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $4.12–$6.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,019 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $110 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $60 below CC-SS $167.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.62 collected) or spot ≥ $108.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,448 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,740 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $107): -$23,478 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,186 (+$7,262 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,572, the opportunity cost of earning $2,777/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,544, position total $-24,522 (+$5,926 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $102 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 65% | 74% | $1,176 | $5,040 | +$2,263 | $24,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $102 3.9% OTM over spot $98.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.02 mid) = $1,176 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $105.02) 73% EV / mo +$861 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-5.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~21.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,076 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$236 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.99/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $4.53–$6.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,768 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $105 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $65 below CC-SS $167.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.94 collected) or spot ≥ $105.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,448 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,740 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $102): -$24,950 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,658 (+$5,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,044, the opportunity cost of earning $5,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,016, position total $-25,994 (+$4,454 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,740 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,614
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $107 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 4/4 | $2,777 | $2,441 | 78% | 82% | +$719 | -$23,478 | 489.1% | $-23,186 (vs do-nothing $-20,572) |
| $106 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 4/4 | $3,103 | $2,767 | 76% | 80% | +$721 | -$23,802 | 495.9% | $-23,510 (vs do-nothing $-20,896) |
| $105 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 3/4 | $2,661 | $2,336 | 73% | 78% | +$598 | -$18,074 | 376.5% | $-18,508 (vs do-nothing $-15,894) |
| $107 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/4 | $2,614 | $2,278 | 72% | 78% | +$483 | -$22,906 | 477.2% | $-22,614 (vs do-nothing $-20,000) |
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 3/4 | $2,996 | $2,670 | 70% | 77% | +$617 | -$18,296 | 381.2% | $-18,730 (vs do-nothing $-16,116) |
| $106 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/4 | $2,829 | $2,493 | 70% | 77% | +$472 | -$23,206 | 483.5% | $-22,914 (vs do-nothing $-20,300) |
| $107 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/4 | $2,600 | $2,264 | 69% | 76% | +$416 | -$22,306 | 464.7% | $-22,014 (vs do-nothing $-19,400) |
| $105 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 4/4 | $3,043 | $2,707 | 68% | 76% | +$443 | -$23,506 | 489.7% | $-23,214 (vs do-nothing $-20,600) |
| $106 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/4 | $2,800 | $2,464 | 68% | 76% | +$563 | -$22,566 | 470.1% | $-22,274 (vs do-nothing $-19,660) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 3/4 | $3,381 | $3,056 | 68% | 75% | +$647 | -$18,506 | 385.5% | $-18,940 (vs do-nothing $-16,326) |
| $104 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $3,300 | $2,964 | 66% | 74% | +$437 | -$23,786 | 495.5% | $-23,494 (vs do-nothing $-20,880) |
| $105 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,664 | 66% | 75% | +$467 | -$22,826 | 475.5% | $-22,534 (vs do-nothing $-19,920) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 2/4 | $2,520 | $2,205 | 65% | 73% | +$431 | -$12,475 | 259.9% | $-13,636 (vs do-nothing $-11,022) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 4/4 | $3,114 | $2,778 | 65% | 74% | +$389 | -$23,146 | 482.2% | $-22,854 (vs do-nothing $-20,240) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 3/4 | $2,700 | $2,375 | 64% | 74% | +$386 | -$18,035 | 375.7% | $-18,469 (vs do-nothing $-15,855) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 3/4 | $2,507 | $2,182 | 63% | 73% | +$310 | -$17,540 | 365.4% | $-17,974 (vs do-nothing $-15,360) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/4 | $2,893 | $2,568 | 62% | 72% | +$347 | -$18,245 | 380.1% | $-18,679 (vs do-nothing $-16,065) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 2/4 | $2,657 | $2,343 | 62% | 71% | +$269 | -$12,643 | 263.4% | $-13,804 (vs do-nothing $-11,190) |
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/4 | $2,636 | $2,310 | 61% | 72% | +$276 | -$17,750 | 369.8% | $-18,184 (vs do-nothing $-15,570) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/4 | $3,054 | $2,728 | 60% | 71% | +$257 | -$18,470 | 384.8% | $-18,904 (vs do-nothing $-16,290) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/4 | $2,764 | $2,439 | 59% | 71% | +$233 | -$17,960 | 374.2% | $-18,394 (vs do-nothing $-15,780) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 2/4 | $3,043 | $2,728 | 58% | 70% | +$323 | -$12,753 | 265.7% | $-13,914 (vs do-nothing $-11,300) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,439 | $3,114 | 58% | 70% | +$374 | -$18,590 | 387.3% | $-19,024 (vs do-nothing $-16,410) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/4 | $3,021 | $2,696 | 58% | 70% | +$308 | -$18,080 | 376.7% | $-18,514 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/4 | $3,171 | $2,846 | 56% | 69% | +$266 | -$18,275 | 380.7% | $-18,709 (vs do-nothing $-16,095) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/4 | $3,664 | $3,339 | 55% | 69% | +$311 | -$18,785 | 391.3% | $-19,219 (vs do-nothing $-16,605) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/4 | $3,386 | $3,071 | 55% | 68% | +$299 | -$12,873 | 268.2% | $-14,034 (vs do-nothing $-11,420) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/4 | $2,507 | $2,193 | 54% | 68% | +$171 | -$12,593 | 262.4% | $-13,754 (vs do-nothing $-11,140) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 3/4 | $3,364 | $3,039 | 54% | 68% | +$257 | -$18,440 | 384.2% | $-18,874 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 2/4 | $3,471 | $3,157 | 53% | 67% | +$188 | -$12,953 | 269.9% | $-14,114 (vs do-nothing $-11,500) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/4 | $2,571 | $2,257 | 53% | 67% | +$131 | -$12,663 | 263.8% | $-13,824 (vs do-nothing $-11,210) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 3/4 | $3,579 | $3,253 | 52% | 68% | +$259 | -$18,590 | 387.3% | $-19,024 (vs do-nothing $-16,410) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 2/4 | $3,643 | $3,328 | 52% | 66% | +$153 | -$13,013 | 271.1% | $-14,174 (vs do-nothing $-11,560) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/4 | $2,700 | $2,385 | 52% | 67% | +$152 | -$12,703 | 264.6% | $-13,864 (vs do-nothing $-11,250) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/4 | $2,786 | $2,471 | 50% | 66% | +$127 | -$12,763 | 265.9% | $-13,924 (vs do-nothing $-11,310) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $3,857 | $3,543 | 50% | 65% | +$152 | -$13,063 | 272.1% | $-14,224 (vs do-nothing $-11,610) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/4 | $2,893 | $2,578 | 49% | 66% | +$120 | -$12,813 | 266.9% | $-13,974 (vs do-nothing $-11,360) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 2/4 | $4,157 | $3,843 | 48% | 65% | +$228 | -$13,093 | 272.8% | $-14,254 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 2/4 | $4,329 | $4,014 | 47% | 64% | +$165 | -$13,153 | 274.0% | $-14,314 (vs do-nothing $-11,700) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.