4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $4,980/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $336/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,032 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $105 | 77% | $2,743 | $707 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $123 | 17 Jul | 7d | 27.1% | 97% | 7% | $80 | $343 | -$2,400 | $17,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $123 27.1% OTM over spot $96.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $80 credit for the 7d cycle → $343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $123) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $123.22) 97% EV / mo +$202 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-570 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,794 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $140 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.62/sh now → $4.68 mid-life (likely $3.51–$5.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 71 simulated challenges: the $123 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $126 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $123 is $44 below CC-SS $167.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $123.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $123)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,032 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,287 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $123): -$17,577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,322 (+$13,710 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,740, the opportunity cost of earning $343/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,712, position total $-18,639 (+$12,393 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $113 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.8% | 90% | 20% | $236 | $1,011 | -$1,731 | $21,421 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $113 16.8% OTM over spot $96.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $236 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,011/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $113.66) 91% EV / mo +$402 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.4-6.1] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,983 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,394 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $130 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.76/sh now → $4.08 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $116 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $113 is $54 below CC-SS $167.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $113.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,032 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,287 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $113): -$21,421 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,166 (+$9,866 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,584, the opportunity cost of earning $1,011/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,556, position total $-22,483 (+$8,549 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.6% | 83% | 34% | $432 | $1,851 | -$891 | $23,225 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 11.6% OTM over spot $96.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid) = $432 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,851/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $109.15) 85% EV / mo +$541 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,566 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,083 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $127 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $3.66–$6.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 741 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $111 (overshoots $2.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $59 below CC-SS $167.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $109.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,032 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,287 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,225 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,970 (+$8,062 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,388, the opportunity cost of earning $1,851/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,360, position total $-24,287 (+$6,745 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.5% | 77% | 33% | $640 | $2,743 | — | $24,217 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 8.5% OTM over spot $96.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.66 mid) = $640 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,743/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $106.66) 81% EV / mo +$681 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-5.6] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~11.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,112 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$807 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $127 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.11/sh now → $3.62 mid-life (likely $3.96–$6.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 985 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $108 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $62 below CC-SS $167.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $106.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,032 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,287 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,217 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,962 (+$7,070 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,380, the opportunity cost of earning $2,743/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,352, position total $-25,279 (+$5,753 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 60% | 83% | $1,280 | $5,486 | +$2,743 | $25,977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 2.3% OTM over spot $96.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.38 mid) = $1,280 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $102.38) 71% EV / mo +$622 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.5-5.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~28.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,608 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$36 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.29 mid-life (likely $4.37–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,964 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $102 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $68 below CC-SS $167.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.80/sh (~25% of the $3.20 collected) or spot ≥ $102.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,032 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,287 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$25,977 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,722 (+$5,310 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,140, the opportunity cost of earning $5,486/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,112, position total $-27,039 (+$3,993 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.111 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,287 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,582
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 4/4 | $2,743 | $2,407 | 77% | 81% | +$681 | -$24,217 | 504.5% | $-23,962 (vs do-nothing $-21,380) |
| $104 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 4/4 | $3,017 | $2,681 | 75% | 79% | +$625 | -$24,553 | 511.5% | $-24,298 (vs do-nothing $-21,716) |
| $103 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 3/4 | $2,571 | $2,246 | 72% | 78% | +$493 | -$18,643 | 388.4% | $-19,097 (vs do-nothing $-16,515) |
| $105 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 4/4 | $2,657 | $2,321 | 72% | 78% | +$532 | -$23,617 | 492.0% | $-23,362 (vs do-nothing $-20,780) |
| $106 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/4 | $2,543 | $2,207 | 70% | 77% | +$497 | -$22,677 | 472.4% | $-22,422 (vs do-nothing $-19,840) |
| $104 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/4 | $2,829 | $2,493 | 70% | 77% | +$467 | -$23,937 | 498.7% | $-23,682 (vs do-nothing $-21,100) |
| $102 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 3/4 | $2,919 | $2,593 | 69% | 76% | +$517 | -$18,862 | 393.0% | $-19,316 (vs do-nothing $-16,734) |
| $105 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/4 | $2,714 | $2,378 | 69% | 76% | +$506 | -$22,957 | 478.3% | $-22,702 (vs do-nothing $-20,120) |
| $103 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 4/4 | $3,129 | $2,793 | 68% | 75% | +$517 | -$24,197 | 504.1% | $-23,942 (vs do-nothing $-21,360) |
| $104 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 4/4 | $2,886 | $2,550 | 67% | 75% | +$504 | -$23,237 | 484.1% | $-22,982 (vs do-nothing $-20,400) |
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.58 | 3/4 | $3,317 | $2,992 | 67% | 74% | +$549 | -$19,069 | 397.3% | $-19,523 (vs do-nothing $-16,941) |
| $102 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/4 | $2,507 | $2,182 | 66% | 74% | +$345 | -$18,373 | 382.8% | $-18,827 (vs do-nothing $-16,245) |
| $103 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/4 | $2,971 | $2,635 | 66% | 74% | +$404 | -$23,577 | 491.2% | $-23,322 (vs do-nothing $-20,740) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 4/4 | $3,229 | $2,893 | 64% | 73% | +$464 | -$23,797 | 495.8% | $-23,542 (vs do-nothing $-20,960) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 3/4 | $3,716 | $3,390 | 63% | 72% | +$533 | -$19,276 | 401.6% | $-19,730 (vs do-nothing $-17,148) |
| $101 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 3/4 | $2,732 | $2,407 | 63% | 73% | +$351 | -$18,568 | 386.8% | $-19,022 (vs do-nothing $-16,440) |
| $101 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $2,593 | $2,268 | 62% | 72% | +$362 | -$18,028 | 375.6% | $-18,482 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 3/4 | $2,925 | $2,600 | 61% | 71% | +$308 | -$18,778 | 391.2% | $-19,232 (vs do-nothing $-16,650) |
| $100 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/4 | $2,721 | $2,396 | 60% | 71% | +$324 | -$18,238 | 380.0% | $-18,692 (vs do-nothing $-16,110) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/4 | $2,743 | $2,428 | 60% | 71% | +$311 | -$12,988 | 270.6% | $-14,152 (vs do-nothing $-11,570) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 3/4 | $3,182 | $2,857 | 59% | 70% | +$316 | -$18,958 | 395.0% | $-19,412 (vs do-nothing $-16,830) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 3/4 | $2,893 | $2,568 | 59% | 71% | +$319 | -$18,418 | 383.7% | $-18,872 (vs do-nothing $-16,290) |
| $98.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/4 | $2,914 | $2,600 | 58% | 70% | +$314 | -$13,048 | 271.8% | $-14,212 (vs do-nothing $-11,630) |
| $98.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/4 | $3,311 | $2,985 | 58% | 70% | +$309 | -$19,048 | 396.8% | $-19,502 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $98 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/4 | $3,086 | $2,771 | 57% | 69% | +$308 | -$13,108 | 273.1% | $-14,272 (vs do-nothing $-11,690) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 3/4 | $3,064 | $2,739 | 57% | 70% | +$303 | -$18,598 | 387.5% | $-19,052 (vs do-nothing $-16,470) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/4 | $3,471 | $3,146 | 56% | 69% | +$329 | -$19,123 | 398.4% | $-19,577 (vs do-nothing $-16,995) |
| $97.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,275 | 55% | 69% | +$312 | -$19,213 | 400.3% | $-19,667 (vs do-nothing $-17,085) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/4 | $3,257 | $2,943 | 55% | 68% | +$293 | -$13,168 | 274.3% | $-14,332 (vs do-nothing $-11,750) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/4 | $3,257 | $2,932 | 55% | 69% | +$445 | -$18,763 | 390.9% | $-19,217 (vs do-nothing $-16,635) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/4 | $2,507 | $2,193 | 54% | 68% | +$214 | -$12,858 | 267.9% | $-14,022 (vs do-nothing $-11,440) |
| $97 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 2/4 | $3,429 | $3,114 | 53% | 67% | +$268 | -$13,228 | 275.6% | $-14,392 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 3/4 | $3,407 | $3,082 | 53% | 68% | +$242 | -$18,958 | 395.0% | $-19,412 (vs do-nothing $-16,830) |
| $96.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 2/4 | $2,593 | $2,278 | 53% | 68% | +$196 | -$12,918 | 269.1% | $-14,082 (vs do-nothing $-11,500) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 2/4 | $2,679 | $2,364 | 52% | 67% | +$175 | -$12,978 | 270.4% | $-14,142 (vs do-nothing $-11,560) |
| $96.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 2/4 | $3,514 | $3,200 | 51% | 66% | +$148 | -$13,308 | 277.3% | $-14,472 (vs do-nothing $-11,890) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 3/4 | $3,664 | $3,339 | 51% | 67% | +$281 | -$19,078 | 397.5% | $-19,532 (vs do-nothing $-16,950) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 2/4 | $3,729 | $3,414 | 50% | 65% | +$146 | -$13,358 | 278.3% | $-14,522 (vs do-nothing $-11,940) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/4 | $2,893 | $2,578 | 49% | 66% | +$165 | -$13,078 | 272.5% | $-14,242 (vs do-nothing $-11,660) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/4 | $4,286 | $3,971 | 46% | 64% | +$243 | -$13,428 | 279.8% | $-14,592 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.