4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.21 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,631/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $339/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,282 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 4 × $103 | 80% | $3,060 | $741 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 17 Jul | 6d | 26.4% | 98% | 4% | $72 | $360 | -$2,700 | $19,212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 26.4% OTM over spot $94.94 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.21 mid) = $72 credit for the 6d cycle → $360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $120.20) 98% EV / mo +$282 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.0-5.9] median · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-390 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,762 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $48 below CC-SS $168.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $120.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,282 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,356 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$19,212 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,138 (+$13,144 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,948, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,920, position total $-20,416 (+$11,866 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $109 | 17 Jul | 6d | 14.8% | 91% | 19% | $272 | $1,360 | -$1,700 | $23,412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $109 14.8% OTM over spot $94.94 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.74 mid) = $272 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $109) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $109.74) 92% EV / mo +$801 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-5.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,858 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,294 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.54/sh now → $3.92 mid-life (likely $3.22–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 400 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $112 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $109 is $59 below CC-SS $168.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $109.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,282 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,356 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $109): -$23,412 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,338 (+$8,944 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,148, the opportunity cost of earning $1,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,120, position total $-24,616 (+$7,666 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $106 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.6% | 86% | 28% | $412 | $2,060 | -$1,000 | $24,472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 11.6% OTM over spot $94.94 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.08 mid) = $412 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $107.08) 88% EV / mo +$1,079 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,175 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,085 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.29/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.59–$5.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 625 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $109 (overshoots $2.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $168.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $107.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,282 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,356 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,398 (+$7,884 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,208, the opportunity cost of earning $2,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,180, position total $-25,676 (+$6,606 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $103 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.5% | 80% | 32% | $612 | $3,060 | — | $25,472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 8.5% OTM over spot $94.94 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.64 mid) = $612 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $104.64) 84% EV / mo +$1,346 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.6-6.5] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~12.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,693 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$817 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $3.73–$5.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 974 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $106 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $168.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $104.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,282 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,356 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$25,472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,398 (+$6,884 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,208, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,180, position total $-26,676 (+$5,606 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.2% | 64% | 76% | $1,200 | $6,000 | +$2,940 | $26,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98 3.2% OTM over spot $94.94 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.10 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $101.10) 74% EV / mo +$1,605 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.2-6.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~26.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,050 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$119 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.66/sh now → $3.30 mid-life (likely $4.26–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,816 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $101 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $70 below CC-SS $168.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $101.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,282 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,356 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98): -$26,884 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,810 (+$5,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,620, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.48 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,592, position total $-28,088 (+$4,194 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.104 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,356 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,190
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 4/4 | $3,060 | $2,721 | 80% | 84% | +$1,346 | -$25,472 | 530.7% | $-25,398 (vs do-nothing $-22,208) |
| $102 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 4/4 | $3,560 | $3,221 | 77% | 82% | +$1,503 | -$25,772 | 536.9% | $-25,698 (vs do-nothing $-22,508) |
| $101 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 3/4 | $2,970 | $2,642 | 74% | 80% | +$1,124 | -$19,569 | 407.7% | $-20,311 (vs do-nothing $-17,121) |
| $100 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 3/4 | $3,465 | $3,137 | 71% | 78% | +$1,263 | -$19,770 | 411.9% | $-20,512 (vs do-nothing $-17,322) |
| $102 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/4 | $3,046 | $2,707 | 70% | 77% | +$797 | -$25,164 | 524.3% | $-25,090 (vs do-nothing $-21,900) |
| $101 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,323 | $2,984 | 68% | 76% | +$765 | -$25,444 | 530.1% | $-25,370 (vs do-nothing $-22,180) |
| $99 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 3/4 | $4,005 | $3,677 | 68% | 76% | +$1,388 | -$19,962 | 415.9% | $-20,704 (vs do-nothing $-17,514) |
| $102 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 4/4 | $3,060 | $2,721 | 68% | 76% | +$760 | -$24,444 | 509.3% | $-24,370 (vs do-nothing $-21,180) |
| $100 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/4 | $3,508 | $3,169 | 66% | 75% | +$703 | -$25,764 | 536.8% | $-25,690 (vs do-nothing $-22,500) |
| $101 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 4/4 | $3,060 | $2,721 | 66% | 75% | +$568 | -$24,844 | 517.6% | $-24,770 (vs do-nothing $-21,580) |
| $98.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 3/4 | $4,155 | $3,827 | 65% | 75% | +$1,112 | -$20,082 | 418.4% | $-20,824 (vs do-nothing $-17,634) |
| $100 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 4/4 | $3,360 | $3,021 | 64% | 74% | +$662 | -$25,044 | 521.8% | $-24,970 (vs do-nothing $-21,780) |
| $98 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,684 | 64% | 74% | +$803 | -$13,442 | 280.0% | $-15,000 (vs do-nothing $-11,810) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 3/4 | $2,838 | $2,511 | 63% | 73% | +$469 | -$19,533 | 406.9% | $-20,275 (vs do-nothing $-17,085) |
| $98.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 3/4 | $3,012 | $2,684 | 62% | 73% | +$543 | -$19,608 | 408.5% | $-20,350 (vs do-nothing $-17,160) |
| $99 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/4 | $3,720 | $3,381 | 62% | 73% | +$802 | -$25,204 | 525.1% | $-25,130 (vs do-nothing $-21,940) |
| $97.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 2/4 | $3,100 | $2,784 | 62% | 73% | +$724 | -$13,522 | 281.7% | $-15,080 (vs do-nothing $-11,890) |
| $98 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/4 | $3,288 | $2,961 | 61% | 72% | +$687 | -$19,638 | 409.1% | $-20,380 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $98 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 3/4 | $2,835 | $2,507 | 60% | 72% | +$471 | -$19,173 | 399.4% | $-19,915 (vs do-nothing $-16,725) |
| $97 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 2/4 | $3,250 | $2,934 | 60% | 72% | +$684 | -$13,592 | 283.2% | $-15,150 (vs do-nothing $-11,960) |
| $97.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/4 | $3,254 | $2,926 | 60% | 72% | +$515 | -$19,803 | 412.6% | $-20,545 (vs do-nothing $-17,355) |
| $97 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,272 | 59% | 71% | +$718 | -$19,803 | 412.6% | $-20,545 (vs do-nothing $-17,355) |
| $97 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/4 | $3,150 | $2,822 | 58% | 71% | +$599 | -$19,263 | 401.3% | $-20,005 (vs do-nothing $-16,815) |
| $96.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 2/4 | $3,500 | $3,184 | 58% | 71% | +$734 | -$13,642 | 284.2% | $-15,200 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $96.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/4 | $3,565 | $3,238 | 57% | 70% | +$534 | -$19,968 | 416.0% | $-20,710 (vs do-nothing $-17,520) |
| $96 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/4 | $3,800 | $3,484 | 56% | 70% | +$823 | -$13,682 | 285.0% | $-15,240 (vs do-nothing $-12,050) |
| $96 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 3/4 | $3,240 | $2,912 | 56% | 70% | +$490 | -$19,503 | 406.3% | $-20,245 (vs do-nothing $-17,055) |
| $96 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/4 | $3,808 | $3,480 | 56% | 70% | +$622 | -$20,013 | 416.9% | $-20,755 (vs do-nothing $-17,565) |
| $95 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 3/4 | $3,555 | $3,227 | 54% | 69% | +$595 | -$19,593 | 408.2% | $-20,335 (vs do-nothing $-17,145) |
| $95 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 2/4 | $2,815 | $2,499 | 53% | 69% | +$474 | -$13,422 | 279.6% | $-14,980 (vs do-nothing $-11,790) |
| $95 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/4 | $4,200 | $3,884 | 52% | 68% | +$767 | -$13,802 | 287.5% | $-15,360 (vs do-nothing $-12,170) |
| $94 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 3/4 | $3,757 | $3,430 | 52% | 69% | +$576 | -$19,758 | 411.6% | $-20,500 (vs do-nothing $-17,310) |
| $94 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,684 | 51% | 68% | +$425 | -$13,542 | 282.1% | $-15,100 (vs do-nothing $-11,910) |
| $94 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 2/4 | $4,750 | $4,434 | 48% | 67% | +$815 | -$13,892 | 289.4% | $-15,450 (vs do-nothing $-12,260) |
| $93.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 2/4 | $4,950 | $4,634 | 46% | 66% | +$860 | -$13,952 | 290.7% | $-15,510 (vs do-nothing $-12,320) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.