4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.16 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,446/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $339/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,326 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 4 × $102 | 81% | $2,860 | $906 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $117 | 17 Jul | 6d | 24.6% | 98% | 5% | $68 | $340 | -$2,520 | $19,997 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $117 24.6% OTM over spot $93.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.19 mid) = $68 credit for the 6d cycle → $340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $117) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $117.19) 98% EV / mo +$260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-505 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,683 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $134 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.19/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $2.87–$5.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 64 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $119 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $117 is $50 below CC-SS $167.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $117.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $117)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,326 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,411 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $117): -$19,997 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,912 (+$12,414 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,760 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,152, the opportunity cost of earning $340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,040, position total $-21,179 (+$11,147 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $107 | 17 Jul | 6d | 14.0% | 91% | 19% | $280 | $1,400 | -$1,460 | $23,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $107 14.0% OTM over spot $93.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.72 mid) = $280 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $107.72) 92% EV / mo +$872 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.6-5.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,396 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,229 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $3.37–$5.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 375 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $110 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $60 below CC-SS $167.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $107.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,326 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,411 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $107): -$23,785 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,700 (+$8,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,760 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,940, the opportunity cost of earning $1,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,828, position total $-24,967 (+$7,359 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.8% | 87% | 26% | $360 | $1,800 | -$1,060 | $24,505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 11.8% OTM over spot $93.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.94 mid) = $360 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $105.94) 89% EV / mo +$1,002 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-6.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,624 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,102 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.17/sh now → $3.66 mid-life (likely $3.32–$5.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 505 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $107 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $62 below CC-SS $167.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $105.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,326 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,411 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,505 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,420 (+$7,906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,760 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,660, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,548, position total $-25,687 (+$6,639 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $102 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.6% | 81% | 28% | $572 | $2,860 | — | $25,493 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $102 8.6% OTM over spot $93.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.46 mid) = $572 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $103.47) 84% EV / mo +$1,381 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.8-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~11.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,457 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$822 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.93/sh now → $3.48 mid-life (likely $3.68–$6.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 841 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $105 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $65 below CC-SS $167.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.43 collected) or spot ≥ $103.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,326 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,411 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $102): -$25,493 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,408 (+$6,918 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,760 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,648, the opportunity cost of earning $2,860/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,536, position total $-26,675 (+$5,651 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $97 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.3% | 64% | 74% | $1,116 | $5,580 | +$2,720 | $26,949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $97 3.3% OTM over spot $93.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.85 mid) = $1,116 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $99.85) 74% EV / mo +$1,599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-5.6] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.5 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~25.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,999 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$168 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.54/sh now → $3.21 mid-life (likely $4.16–$5.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,694 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $99 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $70 below CC-SS $167.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.79 collected) or spot ≥ $99.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,326 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,411 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $97): -$26,949 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,864 (+$5,462 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,760 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,104, the opportunity cost of earning $5,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,992, position total $-28,131 (+$4,195 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,411 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,760
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 4/4 | $2,860 | $2,521 | 81% | 84% | +$1,381 | -$25,493 | 531.1% | $-25,408 (vs do-nothing $-22,648) |
| $101 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 4/4 | $3,220 | $2,881 | 78% | 83% | +$1,411 | -$25,821 | 537.9% | $-25,736 (vs do-nothing $-22,976) |
| $100 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 3/4 | $2,850 | $2,522 | 75% | 80% | +$1,114 | -$19,579 | 407.9% | $-20,205 (vs do-nothing $-17,445) |
| $99 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 3/4 | $3,165 | $2,837 | 71% | 78% | +$1,070 | -$19,816 | 412.8% | $-20,442 (vs do-nothing $-17,682) |
| $101 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/4 | $2,815 | $2,476 | 71% | 78% | +$795 | -$25,245 | 525.9% | $-25,160 (vs do-nothing $-22,400) |
| $98.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 3/4 | $3,435 | $3,107 | 70% | 77% | +$1,140 | -$19,912 | 414.8% | $-20,538 (vs do-nothing $-17,778) |
| $100 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/4 | $3,138 | $2,799 | 69% | 77% | +$864 | -$25,505 | 531.3% | $-25,420 (vs do-nothing $-22,660) |
| $101 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 4/4 | $2,790 | $2,451 | 69% | 77% | +$836 | -$24,605 | 512.6% | $-24,520 (vs do-nothing $-21,760) |
| $98 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 3/4 | $3,675 | $3,347 | 68% | 76% | +$1,165 | -$20,014 | 416.9% | $-20,640 (vs do-nothing $-17,880) |
| $100 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/4 | $3,120 | $2,781 | 67% | 76% | +$983 | -$24,785 | 516.3% | $-24,700 (vs do-nothing $-21,940) |
| $99 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 4/4 | $3,415 | $3,076 | 67% | 75% | +$859 | -$25,785 | 537.2% | $-25,700 (vs do-nothing $-22,940) |
| $97.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 3/4 | $3,900 | $3,572 | 66% | 75% | +$1,160 | -$20,119 | 419.1% | $-20,745 (vs do-nothing $-17,985) |
| $98.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 4/4 | $3,462 | $3,122 | 65% | 74% | +$754 | -$25,965 | 540.9% | $-25,880 (vs do-nothing $-23,120) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 4/4 | $3,180 | $2,841 | 65% | 75% | +$846 | -$25,145 | 523.8% | $-25,060 (vs do-nothing $-22,300) |
| $97 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 2/4 | $2,790 | $2,474 | 64% | 74% | +$800 | -$13,474 | 280.7% | $-14,812 (vs do-nothing $-12,052) |
| $98 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 3/4 | $2,804 | $2,476 | 64% | 74% | +$655 | -$19,534 | 406.9% | $-20,160 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $97.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 3/4 | $2,908 | $2,580 | 63% | 73% | +$634 | -$19,639 | 409.1% | $-20,265 (vs do-nothing $-17,505) |
| $96.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 2/4 | $2,950 | $2,634 | 62% | 73% | +$785 | -$13,542 | 282.1% | $-14,880 (vs do-nothing $-12,120) |
| $98 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 4/4 | $3,480 | $3,141 | 62% | 73% | +$682 | -$25,345 | 528.0% | $-25,260 (vs do-nothing $-22,500) |
| $97 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/4 | $3,046 | $2,719 | 61% | 73% | +$642 | -$19,729 | 411.0% | $-20,355 (vs do-nothing $-17,595) |
| $96 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/4 | $3,150 | $2,834 | 61% | 72% | +$799 | -$13,602 | 283.4% | $-14,940 (vs do-nothing $-12,180) |
| $97 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $2,745 | $2,417 | 61% | 73% | +$667 | -$19,219 | 400.4% | $-19,845 (vs do-nothing $-17,085) |
| $96.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 3/4 | $3,150 | $2,822 | 60% | 72% | +$610 | -$19,834 | 413.2% | $-20,460 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $96 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 3/4 | $3,323 | $2,995 | 59% | 71% | +$642 | -$19,909 | 414.8% | $-20,535 (vs do-nothing $-17,775) |
| $96 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 3/4 | $2,947 | $2,620 | 58% | 71% | +$488 | -$19,384 | 403.8% | $-20,010 (vs do-nothing $-17,250) |
| $95 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/4 | $3,600 | $3,284 | 57% | 71% | +$908 | -$13,712 | 285.7% | $-15,050 (vs do-nothing $-12,290) |
| $95 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/4 | $3,172 | $2,845 | 56% | 71% | +$722 | -$19,534 | 406.9% | $-20,160 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $95 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,704 | $3,376 | 56% | 70% | +$721 | -$20,044 | 417.6% | $-20,670 (vs do-nothing $-17,910) |
| $94 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/4 | $3,375 | $3,047 | 54% | 70% | +$721 | -$19,699 | 410.4% | $-20,325 (vs do-nothing $-17,565) |
| $94 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 2/4 | $2,723 | $2,407 | 53% | 69% | +$518 | -$13,452 | 280.3% | $-14,790 (vs do-nothing $-12,030) |
| $94 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 2/4 | $4,100 | $3,784 | 52% | 69% | +$889 | -$13,812 | 287.8% | $-15,150 (vs do-nothing $-12,390) |
| $93 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,272 | 52% | 68% | +$511 | -$19,849 | 413.5% | $-20,475 (vs do-nothing $-17,715) |
| $93 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 2/4 | $2,838 | $2,522 | 51% | 68% | +$399 | -$13,602 | 283.4% | $-14,940 (vs do-nothing $-12,180) |
| $93.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 2/4 | $4,350 | $4,034 | 50% | 68% | +$954 | -$13,862 | 288.8% | $-15,200 (vs do-nothing $-12,440) |
| $93 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/4 | $4,600 | $4,284 | 48% | 67% | +$887 | -$13,912 | 289.8% | $-15,250 (vs do-nothing $-12,490) |
| $92.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/4 | $4,650 | $4,334 | 46% | 66% | +$668 | -$14,002 | 291.7% | $-15,340 (vs do-nothing $-12,580) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.