4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $170.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,262/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $336/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,524 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 4 × $103 | 80% | $2,640 | $755 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $118 | 17 Jul | 6d | 24.3% | 98% | 5% | $68 | $340 | -$2,300 | $20,896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $118 24.3% OTM over spot $94.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.18 mid) = $68 credit for the 6d cycle → $340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $118) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $118.19) 98% EV / mo +$251 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.0 mo [3.3-6.9] median · 25% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-460 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,558 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $134 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.75/sh now → $4.06 mid-life (likely $2.72–$4.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 50 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $121 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $118 is $52 below CC-SS $170.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $118.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $118)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,524 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,183 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $118): -$20,896 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,236 (+$6,288 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,484 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,752, the opportunity cost of earning $340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,656, position total $-24,912 (+$7,612 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 6d | 13.8% | 90% | 20% | $252 | $1,260 | -$1,380 | $24,712 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 13.8% OTM over spot $94.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.67 mid) = $252 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,260/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $108.67) 91% EV / mo +$678 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.8-6.4] median · 20% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 15% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,728 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,149 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $2.80–$5.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 380 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $110 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $62 below CC-SS $170.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $108.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,524 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,183 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$24,712 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,052 (+$2,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,484 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,568, the opportunity cost of earning $1,260/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,472, position total $-28,728 (+$3,796 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $106 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.7% | 87% | 27% | $348 | $1,740 | -$900 | $25,416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 11.7% OTM over spot $94.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.90 mid) = $348 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $106.90) 89% EV / mo +$867 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [3.0-6.6] median · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 17% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,339 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,011 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.80/sh now → $3.40 mid-life (likely $3.07–$5.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 557 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $109 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $64 below CC-SS $170.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $106.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,524 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,183 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$25,416 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,756 (+$1,768 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,484 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,272, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,176, position total $-29,432 (+$3,092 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $103 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.5% | 80% | 29% | $528 | $2,640 | — | $26,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 8.5% OTM over spot $94.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.38 mid) = $528 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $104.38) 84% EV / mo +$1,068 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.4-6.9] median · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~12.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,005 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$767 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.58/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.32–$5.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 873 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $105 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $67 below CC-SS $170.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $104.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,524 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,183 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$26,436 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,776 (+$748 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,484 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,292, the opportunity cost of earning $2,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,196, position total $-30,452 (+$2,072 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $97.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.7% | 63% | 78% | $1,084 | $5,420 | +$2,780 | $28,080 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $97.50 2.7% OTM over spot $94.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.88 mid) = $1,084 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $100.38) 73% EV / mo +$1,149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [3.3-7.0] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 17% without) · ~30.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,422 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$99 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.18/sh now → $2.96 mid-life (likely $3.73–$5.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,791 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $100 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97.50 is $73 below CC-SS $170.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.71 collected) or spot ≥ $100.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $170.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,524 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,183 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $97.50): -$28,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,420 ($-896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,484 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,936, the opportunity cost of earning $5,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,840, position total $-32,096 (+$428 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$27,183 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,484
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 4/4 | $2,640 | $2,304 | 80% | 84% | +$1,068 | -$26,436 | 550.7% | $-31,776 (vs do-nothing $-22,292) |
| $102 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 4/4 | $3,020 | $2,684 | 78% | 82% | +$1,118 | -$26,760 | 557.5% | $-32,100 (vs do-nothing $-22,616) |
| $101 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 4/4 | $3,500 | $3,164 | 75% | 80% | +$1,205 | -$27,064 | 563.8% | $-32,404 (vs do-nothing $-22,920) |
| $100 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 3/4 | $3,015 | $2,691 | 72% | 78% | +$946 | -$20,520 | 427.5% | $-26,896 (vs do-nothing $-17,412) |
| $102 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.99 | 4/4 | $2,760 | $2,424 | 71% | 78% | +$732 | -$26,168 | 545.2% | $-31,508 (vs do-nothing $-22,024) |
| $101 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 4/4 | $2,908 | $2,572 | 69% | 76% | +$626 | -$26,504 | 552.2% | $-31,844 (vs do-nothing $-22,360) |
| $99 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 3/4 | $3,360 | $3,036 | 68% | 76% | +$886 | -$20,751 | 432.3% | $-27,127 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $102 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/4 | $2,670 | $2,334 | 68% | 76% | +$447 | -$25,584 | 533.0% | $-30,924 (vs do-nothing $-21,440) |
| $100 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,323 | $2,987 | 67% | 75% | +$762 | -$26,724 | 556.7% | $-32,064 (vs do-nothing $-22,580) |
| $98.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 3/4 | $3,720 | $3,396 | 66% | 75% | +$1,019 | -$20,829 | 433.9% | $-27,205 (vs do-nothing $-17,721) |
| $101 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/4 | $2,850 | $2,514 | 66% | 75% | +$436 | -$25,864 | 538.8% | $-31,204 (vs do-nothing $-21,720) |
| $98 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 3/4 | $3,945 | $3,621 | 64% | 74% | +$1,002 | -$20,934 | 436.1% | $-27,310 (vs do-nothing $-17,826) |
| $100 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,240 | $2,904 | 64% | 74% | +$622 | -$26,004 | 541.7% | $-31,344 (vs do-nothing $-21,860) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 3/4 | $2,665 | $2,341 | 64% | 74% | +$514 | -$20,268 | 422.2% | $-26,644 (vs do-nothing $-17,160) |
| $98.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 3/4 | $2,769 | $2,445 | 63% | 73% | +$494 | -$20,373 | 424.4% | $-26,749 (vs do-nothing $-17,265) |
| $97.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 2/4 | $2,710 | $2,397 | 63% | 73% | +$575 | -$14,040 | 292.5% | $-21,452 (vs do-nothing $-11,968) |
| $99 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/4 | $3,300 | $2,964 | 62% | 73% | +$464 | -$26,364 | 549.2% | $-31,704 (vs do-nothing $-22,220) |
| $98 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/4 | $2,977 | $2,653 | 61% | 72% | +$573 | -$20,433 | 425.7% | $-26,809 (vs do-nothing $-17,325) |
| $97 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,687 | 61% | 72% | +$680 | -$14,082 | 293.4% | $-21,494 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $98 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/4 | $2,790 | $2,466 | 60% | 72% | +$488 | -$19,863 | 413.8% | $-26,239 (vs do-nothing $-16,755) |
| $97.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/4 | $3,046 | $2,722 | 60% | 72% | +$507 | -$20,553 | 428.2% | $-26,929 (vs do-nothing $-17,445) |
| $97 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/4 | $3,185 | $2,861 | 59% | 71% | +$504 | -$20,643 | 430.1% | $-27,019 (vs do-nothing $-17,535) |
| $96.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/4 | $3,200 | $2,887 | 59% | 71% | +$683 | -$14,142 | 294.6% | $-21,554 (vs do-nothing $-12,070) |
| $97 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/4 | $2,857 | $2,533 | 58% | 71% | +$370 | -$20,118 | 419.1% | $-26,494 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $96.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,358 | $3,034 | 57% | 70% | +$531 | -$20,718 | 431.6% | $-27,094 (vs do-nothing $-17,610) |
| $96 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 2/4 | $3,350 | $3,037 | 57% | 70% | +$625 | -$14,212 | 296.1% | $-21,624 (vs do-nothing $-12,140) |
| $96 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 3/4 | $3,082 | $2,758 | 56% | 70% | +$398 | -$20,268 | 422.2% | $-26,644 (vs do-nothing $-17,160) |
| $96 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/4 | $3,496 | $3,172 | 56% | 70% | +$516 | -$20,808 | 433.5% | $-27,184 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $95 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/4 | $3,398 | $3,073 | 54% | 69% | +$504 | -$20,358 | 424.1% | $-26,734 (vs do-nothing $-17,250) |
| $95 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/4 | $2,631 | $2,318 | 53% | 69% | +$428 | -$13,942 | 290.5% | $-21,354 (vs do-nothing $-11,870) |
| $95 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/4 | $3,850 | $3,537 | 52% | 68% | +$671 | -$14,312 | 298.2% | $-21,724 (vs do-nothing $-12,240) |
| $94 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 3/4 | $3,510 | $3,186 | 52% | 68% | +$396 | -$20,583 | 428.8% | $-26,959 (vs do-nothing $-17,475) |
| $94 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 2/4 | $2,792 | $2,480 | 50% | 67% | +$357 | -$14,072 | 293.2% | $-21,484 (vs do-nothing $-12,000) |
| $94 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $4,400 | $4,087 | 48% | 66% | +$717 | -$14,402 | 300.0% | $-21,814 (vs do-nothing $-12,330) |
| $93.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $4,500 | $4,187 | 46% | 65% | +$546 | -$14,482 | 301.7% | $-21,894 (vs do-nothing $-12,410) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.