4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $6,895/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $346/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,584 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 4 × $104 | 91% | $3,510 | $2,135 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 4 × $100 | 72% | $3,927 | $1,020 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 17 Jul | 4d | 28.8% | 99+% | 1% | $60 | $450 | -$3,060 | $18,725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 28.8% OTM over spot $93.18 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $60 credit for the 4d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $120.16) 99+% EV / mo +$443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.7-5.8] median · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,465 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,099 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.40 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $47 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $120.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,668 (+$13,916 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,960, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $106 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.8% | 94% | 12% | $348 | $2,610 | -$900 | $24,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 13.8% OTM over spot $93.18 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.90 mid) = $348 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $106.90) 95% EV / mo +$2,303 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [2.9-6.7] median · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,267 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,404 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.19/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $3.86–$7.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 194 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $108 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $61 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $106.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,037 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,980 (+$8,604 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,272, the opportunity cost of earning $2,610/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $104 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.6% | 91% | 11% | $468 | $3,510 | — | $24,717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 11.6% OTM over spot $93.18 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.21 mid) = $468 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $105.21) 93% EV / mo +$2,961 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.0-5.5] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,358 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,230 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.00/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $4.03–$7.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $107 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $63 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $105.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$24,717 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,660 (+$7,924 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,952, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.7% | 76% | 48% | $992 | $7,440 | +$3,930 | $26,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98.50 5.7% OTM over spot $93.18 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.62 mid) = $992 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $101.12) 85% EV / mo +$5,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.7-6.2] median, 0.9 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~18.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,302 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$559 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.48/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $4.18–$6.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 999 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $101 (overshoots $2.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98.50 is $68 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $101.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98.50): -$26,393 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,336 (+$6,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,628, the opportunity cost of earning $7,440/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $124 | 24 Jul | 11d | 33.1% | 98% | 3% | $148 | $404 | -$3,524 | $17,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $124 33.1% OTM over spot $93.18 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.45 mid) = $148 credit for the 11d cycle → $404/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $124) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $124.44) 99% EV / mo +$372 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [2.8-6.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.0 mo) · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,319 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,070 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $131 @ 76% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.37/sh now → $8.04 mid-life (likely $4.98–$7.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 78 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $126 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $124 is $43 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $124.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $124)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $124): -$17,037 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,980 (+$15,604 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,272, the opportunity cost of earning $404/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $111 | 24 Jul | 11d | 19.1% | 91% | 19% | $504 | $1,375 | -$2,553 | $21,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 19.1% OTM over spot $93.18 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.34 mid) = $504 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $112.34) 92% EV / mo +$964 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.3-5.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,858 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,168 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.44/sh now → $6.68 mid-life (likely $5.45–$9.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 432 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $114 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $56 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $112.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$21,881 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,824 (+$10,760 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,116, the opportunity cost of earning $1,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $105 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.7% | 83% | 36% | $904 | $2,465 | -$1,462 | $23,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 12.7% OTM over spot $93.18 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.36 mid) = $904 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,465/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $107.36) 86% EV / mo +$1,462 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [2.7-6.3] median · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 21% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,140 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,533 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 81% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.61/sh now → $6.09 mid-life (likely $5.92–$9.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 841 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $108 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $62 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $107.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$23,881 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,824 (+$8,760 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,116, the opportunity cost of earning $2,465/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $100 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.3% | 72% | 47% | $1,440 | $3,927 | — | $25,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 7.3% OTM over spot $93.18 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.80 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $103.80) 80% EV / mo +$1,890 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [3.2-6.5] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~11.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,633 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$809 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $117 @ 88% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.95/sh now → $5.62 mid-life (likely $6.48–$9.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,422 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $102 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $67 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $103.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$25,345 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,288 (+$7,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,580, the opportunity cost of earning $3,927/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $93 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.2% | 52% | 99+% | $2,600 | $7,091 | +$3,164 | $26,985 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $93 0.2% ITM over spot $93.18 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.85 mid) = $2,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $93) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $99.85) 71% EV / mo +$2,212 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$602 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.06/sh now → $4.99 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $93 is $74 below CC-SS $166.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $99.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,641 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93): -$26,985 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,928 (+$5,656 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,220, the opportunity cost of earning $7,091/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,641 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,708
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 4/4 | $3,510 | $3,164 | 91% | 93% | +$2,961 | -$24,717 | 514.9% | $-24,660 (vs do-nothing $-21,952) |
| $103 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 4/4 | $3,960 | $3,614 | 89% | 92% | +$3,232 | -$25,057 | 522.0% | $-25,000 (vs do-nothing $-22,292) |
| $102 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 4/4 | $4,530 | $4,184 | 87% | 91% | +$3,567 | -$25,381 | 528.8% | $-25,324 (vs do-nothing $-22,616) |
| $101 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 3/4 | $3,938 | $3,605 | 85% | 89% | +$2,989 | -$19,264 | 401.3% | $-19,898 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $100 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 3/4 | $4,522 | $4,190 | 82% | 87% | +$3,284 | -$19,486 | 406.0% | $-20,120 (vs do-nothing $-17,412) |
| $99 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 3/4 | $5,040 | $4,708 | 78% | 86% | +$3,438 | -$19,717 | 410.8% | $-20,351 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $98.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 2/4 | $3,720 | $3,402 | 76% | 85% | +$2,509 | -$13,197 | 274.9% | $-14,522 (vs do-nothing $-11,814) |
| $98 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 2/4 | $3,945 | $3,627 | 74% | 84% | +$2,575 | -$13,267 | 276.4% | $-14,592 (vs do-nothing $-11,884) |
| $97.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 2/4 | $4,065 | $3,747 | 72% | 83% | +$2,520 | -$13,351 | 278.1% | $-14,676 (vs do-nothing $-11,968) |
| $100 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,927 | $3,582 | 72% | 80% | +$1,890 | -$25,345 | 528.0% | $-25,288 (vs do-nothing $-22,580) |
| $97 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/4 | $4,500 | $4,182 | 70% | 82% | +$2,762 | -$13,393 | 279.0% | $-14,718 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $99 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $4,200 | $3,854 | 70% | 79% | +$1,869 | -$25,645 | 534.3% | $-25,588 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $98.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $4,364 | $4,018 | 68% | 79% | +$1,874 | -$25,785 | 537.2% | $-25,728 (vs do-nothing $-23,020) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/4 | $4,800 | $4,482 | 68% | 81% | +$2,851 | -$13,453 | 280.3% | $-14,778 (vs do-nothing $-12,070) |
| $100 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,600 | $3,254 | 68% | 78% | +$1,344 | -$24,625 | 513.0% | $-24,568 (vs do-nothing $-21,860) |
| $98 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/4 | $3,518 | $3,186 | 67% | 78% | +$1,524 | -$19,399 | 404.1% | $-20,033 (vs do-nothing $-17,325) |
| $99 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/4 | $3,667 | $3,321 | 66% | 76% | +$1,198 | -$24,985 | 520.5% | $-24,928 (vs do-nothing $-22,220) |
| $96 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 2/4 | $5,025 | $4,707 | 66% | 80% | +$2,845 | -$13,523 | 281.7% | $-14,848 (vs do-nothing $-12,140) |
| $97.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,268 | 66% | 77% | +$1,473 | -$19,519 | 406.6% | $-20,153 (vs do-nothing $-17,445) |
| $97 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/4 | $3,764 | $3,432 | 64% | 76% | +$1,497 | -$19,609 | 408.5% | $-20,243 (vs do-nothing $-17,535) |
| $98 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/4 | $4,133 | $3,788 | 64% | 76% | +$1,437 | -$25,105 | 523.0% | $-25,048 (vs do-nothing $-22,340) |
| $96.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,968 | $3,636 | 63% | 76% | +$1,554 | -$19,684 | 410.1% | $-20,318 (vs do-nothing $-17,610) |
| $97 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 4/4 | $4,233 | $3,888 | 62% | 74% | +$1,292 | -$25,445 | 530.1% | $-25,388 (vs do-nothing $-22,680) |
| $96 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/4 | $4,132 | $3,800 | 61% | 75% | +$1,563 | -$19,774 | 412.0% | $-20,408 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $95 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/4 | $5,775 | $5,457 | 61% | 78% | +$3,071 | -$13,623 | 283.8% | $-14,948 (vs do-nothing $-12,240) |
| $96 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 4/4 | $4,567 | $4,221 | 60% | 74% | +$1,363 | -$25,645 | 534.3% | $-25,588 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $95 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/4 | $4,664 | $4,332 | 58% | 74% | +$1,762 | -$19,879 | 414.1% | $-20,513 (vs do-nothing $-17,805) |
| $95 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/4 | $3,775 | $3,443 | 58% | 73% | +$1,163 | -$19,324 | 402.6% | $-19,958 (vs do-nothing $-17,250) |
| $94 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $6,600 | $6,282 | 56% | 76% | +$3,285 | -$13,713 | 285.7% | $-15,038 (vs do-nothing $-12,330) |
| $94 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 3/4 | $3,900 | $3,568 | 56% | 72% | +$1,064 | -$19,549 | 407.3% | $-20,183 (vs do-nothing $-17,475) |
| $94 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $4,950 | $4,618 | 55% | 73% | +$1,686 | -$20,074 | 418.2% | $-20,708 (vs do-nothing $-18,000) |
| $93 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/4 | $4,125 | $3,793 | 53% | 71% | +$1,052 | -$19,714 | 410.7% | $-20,348 (vs do-nothing $-17,640) |
| $93.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $6,750 | $6,432 | 53% | 75% | +$3,095 | -$13,793 | 287.3% | $-15,118 (vs do-nothing $-12,410) |
| $93 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/4 | $3,545 | $3,227 | 52% | 71% | +$1,106 | -$13,493 | 281.1% | $-14,818 (vs do-nothing $-12,110) |
| $92 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 3/4 | $4,525 | $4,193 | 51% | 70% | +$1,200 | -$19,774 | 412.0% | $-20,408 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $93 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 1/4 | $3,638 | $3,333 | 51% | 74% | +$1,629 | -$6,911 | 144.0% | $-8,928 (vs do-nothing $-6,220) |
| $92 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 2/4 | $3,845 | $3,527 | 49% | 70% | +$1,122 | -$13,583 | 283.0% | $-14,908 (vs do-nothing $-12,200) |
| $92.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 1/4 | $3,788 | $3,483 | 48% | 73% | +$1,586 | -$6,941 | 144.6% | $-8,958 (vs do-nothing $-6,250) |
| $92 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 1/4 | $4,012 | $3,708 | 45% | 73% | +$1,606 | -$6,961 | 145.0% | $-8,978 (vs do-nothing $-6,270) |
| $91.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 1/4 | $4,200 | $3,895 | 43% | 72% | +$1,577 | -$6,986 | 145.5% | $-9,003 (vs do-nothing $-6,295) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.