4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.86 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $6,949/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $346/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,584 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 4 × $104 | 91% | $3,510 | $2,153 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 4 × $100 | 72% | $3,927 | $1,030 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 17 Jul | 4d | 28.9% | 99+% | 1% | $60 | $450 | -$3,060 | $19,086 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 28.9% OTM over spot $93.13 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $60 credit for the 4d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $120.16) 99+% EV / mo +$444 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [2.3-6.0] median · 23% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,470 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,118 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.70/sh now → $5.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $48 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $120.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$19,086 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,765 (+$7,819 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,960, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,864, position total $-23,543 (+$9,041 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $106 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.8% | 94% | 12% | $348 | $2,610 | -$900 | $24,398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 13.8% OTM over spot $93.13 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.90 mid) = $348 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $106.90) 95% EV / mo +$2,309 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [2.8-6.5] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.2 mo) · 22% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 16% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,465 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,420 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.25/sh now → $4.42 mid-life (likely $3.85–$7.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 190 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $108 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $62 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $106.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$24,398 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,077 (+$2,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,272, the opportunity cost of earning $2,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,176, position total $-28,855 (+$3,729 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $104 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.7% | 91% | 11% | $468 | $3,510 | — | $25,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 11.7% OTM over spot $93.13 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.21 mid) = $468 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $105.21) 93% EV / mo +$2,971 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.0-6.0] median · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,659 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,244 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.05/sh now → $4.28 mid-life (likely $4.06–$7.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 317 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $107 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $64 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $105.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$25,078 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,757 (+$1,827 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,952, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,856, position total $-29,535 (+$3,049 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.8% | 77% | 48% | $992 | $7,440 | +$3,930 | $26,754 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98.50 5.8% OTM over spot $93.13 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.62 mid) = $992 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $101.12) 85% EV / mo +$5,051 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.2-6.5] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~19.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,694 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$573 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 92% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.53/sh now → $3.91 mid-life (likely $4.22–$7.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 988 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $101 (overshoots $2.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98.50 is $69 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $101.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98.50): -$26,754 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,433 (+$151 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,628, the opportunity cost of earning $7,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,532, position total $-31,211 (+$1,373 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $124 | 24 Jul | 11d | 33.1% | 98% | 5% | $148 | $404 | -$3,524 | $17,398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $124 33.1% OTM over spot $93.13 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.45 mid) = $148 credit for the 11d cycle → $404/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $124) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $124.44) 98% EV / mo +$341 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.8-6.5] median · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,094 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $131 @ 76% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.45/sh now → $8.10 mid-life (likely $4.79–$9.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 58 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $127 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $124 is $44 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $124.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $124)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $124): -$17,398 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,077 (+$9,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,272, the opportunity cost of earning $404/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,176, position total $-21,855 (+$10,729 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $111 | 24 Jul | 11d | 19.2% | 91% | 19% | $504 | $1,375 | -$2,553 | $22,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 19.2% OTM over spot $93.13 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.34 mid) = $504 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $112.34) 92% EV / mo +$969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [3.1-6.9] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 23% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,240 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,186 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.51/sh now → $6.73 mid-life (likely $5.56–$9.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $114 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $112.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,242 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,921 (+$4,663 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,116, the opportunity cost of earning $1,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,020, position total $-26,699 (+$5,885 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $105 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.7% | 83% | 36% | $904 | $2,465 | -$1,462 | $24,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 12.7% OTM over spot $93.13 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.36 mid) = $904 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,465/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $107.36) 87% EV / mo +$1,471 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [3.2-6.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 23% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 16% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,495 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,548 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 81% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $5.93–$9.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 826 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $108 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $63 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $107.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,242 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,921 (+$2,663 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,116, the opportunity cost of earning $2,465/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,020, position total $-28,699 (+$3,885 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $100 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.4% | 72% | 47% | $1,440 | $3,927 | — | $25,706 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 7.4% OTM over spot $93.13 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.80 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $103.80) 81% EV / mo +$1,906 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.1-6.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~11.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,062 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$822 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $117 @ 88% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.99/sh now → $5.66 mid-life (likely $6.42–$9.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,409 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $102 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $68 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $103.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$25,706 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,385 (+$1,199 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,580, the opportunity cost of earning $3,927/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,484, position total $-30,163 (+$2,421 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $93 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.1% | 52% | 99+% | $2,600 | $7,091 | +$3,164 | $27,346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $93 0.1% ITM over spot $93.13 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.85 mid) = $2,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $93) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $99.85) 72% EV / mo +$2,301 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$592 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.10/sh now → $5.02 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $93 is $75 below CC-SS $167.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $99.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,904 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93): -$27,346 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,025 ($-441 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,805 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,220, the opportunity cost of earning $7,091/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,124, position total $-31,803 (+$781 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 43 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$26,904 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,805
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 4/4 | $3,510 | $3,164 | 91% | 93% | +$2,971 | -$25,078 | 522.5% | $-30,757 (vs do-nothing $-21,952) |
| $103 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 4/4 | $3,960 | $3,614 | 90% | 92% | +$3,244 | -$25,418 | 529.5% | $-31,097 (vs do-nothing $-22,292) |
| $102 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 4/4 | $4,530 | $4,184 | 87% | 91% | +$3,583 | -$25,742 | 536.3% | $-31,421 (vs do-nothing $-22,616) |
| $101 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 3/4 | $3,938 | $3,605 | 85% | 89% | +$3,004 | -$19,534 | 407.0% | $-25,995 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $100 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 3/4 | $4,522 | $4,190 | 82% | 88% | +$3,303 | -$19,756 | 411.6% | $-26,217 (vs do-nothing $-17,412) |
| $99 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 3/4 | $5,040 | $4,708 | 78% | 86% | +$3,460 | -$19,987 | 416.4% | $-26,448 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $98.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 2/4 | $3,720 | $3,402 | 77% | 85% | +$2,526 | -$13,377 | 278.7% | $-20,619 (vs do-nothing $-11,814) |
| $98 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 2/4 | $3,945 | $3,627 | 75% | 84% | +$2,594 | -$13,447 | 280.1% | $-20,689 (vs do-nothing $-11,884) |
| $97.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 2/4 | $4,065 | $3,747 | 73% | 83% | +$2,540 | -$13,531 | 281.9% | $-20,773 (vs do-nothing $-11,968) |
| $100 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,927 | $3,582 | 72% | 81% | +$1,906 | -$25,706 | 535.5% | $-31,385 (vs do-nothing $-22,580) |
| $97 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/4 | $4,500 | $4,182 | 70% | 82% | +$2,784 | -$13,573 | 282.8% | $-20,815 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $99 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $4,200 | $3,854 | 70% | 79% | +$1,887 | -$26,006 | 541.8% | $-31,685 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $98.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $4,364 | $4,018 | 68% | 79% | +$1,892 | -$26,146 | 544.7% | $-31,825 (vs do-nothing $-23,020) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/4 | $4,800 | $4,482 | 68% | 81% | +$2,875 | -$13,633 | 284.0% | $-20,875 (vs do-nothing $-12,070) |
| $100 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,600 | $3,254 | 68% | 78% | +$1,356 | -$24,986 | 520.5% | $-30,665 (vs do-nothing $-21,860) |
| $98 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/4 | $3,518 | $3,186 | 67% | 78% | +$1,539 | -$19,669 | 409.8% | $-26,130 (vs do-nothing $-17,325) |
| $99 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/4 | $3,667 | $3,321 | 66% | 76% | +$1,211 | -$25,346 | 528.0% | $-31,025 (vs do-nothing $-22,220) |
| $96 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 2/4 | $5,025 | $4,707 | 66% | 80% | +$2,870 | -$13,703 | 285.5% | $-20,945 (vs do-nothing $-12,140) |
| $98.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 4/4 | $3,832 | $3,486 | 66% | 77% | +$1,561 | -$25,447 | 530.1% | $-31,126 (vs do-nothing $-22,321) |
| $97.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,268 | 66% | 77% | +$1,488 | -$19,789 | 412.3% | $-26,250 (vs do-nothing $-17,445) |
| $97 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/4 | $3,764 | $3,432 | 64% | 77% | +$1,512 | -$19,879 | 414.2% | $-26,340 (vs do-nothing $-17,535) |
| $98 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/4 | $4,133 | $3,788 | 64% | 76% | +$1,451 | -$25,466 | 530.5% | $-31,145 (vs do-nothing $-22,340) |
| $97.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.16 | 4/4 | $4,104 | $3,758 | 64% | 76% | +$1,607 | -$25,683 | 535.1% | $-31,363 (vs do-nothing $-22,558) |
| $96.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,968 | $3,636 | 63% | 76% | +$1,570 | -$19,954 | 415.7% | $-26,415 (vs do-nothing $-17,610) |
| $97 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 4/4 | $4,233 | $3,888 | 62% | 74% | +$1,307 | -$25,806 | 537.6% | $-31,485 (vs do-nothing $-22,680) |
| $96.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.57 | 4/4 | $4,383 | $4,037 | 61% | 75% | +$1,643 | -$25,916 | 539.9% | $-31,596 (vs do-nothing $-22,790) |
| $96 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/4 | $4,132 | $3,800 | 61% | 75% | +$1,580 | -$20,044 | 417.6% | $-26,505 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $95 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/4 | $5,775 | $5,457 | 61% | 78% | +$3,101 | -$13,803 | 287.6% | $-21,045 (vs do-nothing $-12,240) |
| $96 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 4/4 | $4,567 | $4,221 | 60% | 74% | +$1,379 | -$26,006 | 541.8% | $-31,685 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $95 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/4 | $4,664 | $4,332 | 58% | 74% | +$1,781 | -$20,149 | 419.8% | $-26,610 (vs do-nothing $-17,805) |
| $95 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/4 | $3,775 | $3,443 | 58% | 73% | +$1,175 | -$19,594 | 408.2% | $-26,055 (vs do-nothing $-17,250) |
| $94 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $6,600 | $6,282 | 56% | 76% | +$3,319 | -$13,893 | 289.4% | $-21,135 (vs do-nothing $-12,330) |
| $94 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 3/4 | $3,900 | $3,568 | 56% | 72% | +$1,077 | -$19,819 | 412.9% | $-26,280 (vs do-nothing $-17,475) |
| $94 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $4,950 | $4,618 | 55% | 73% | +$1,706 | -$20,344 | 423.8% | $-26,805 (vs do-nothing $-18,000) |
| $93.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $6,750 | $6,432 | 54% | 75% | +$3,132 | -$13,973 | 291.1% | $-21,215 (vs do-nothing $-12,410) |
| $93 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/4 | $4,125 | $3,793 | 54% | 71% | +$1,065 | -$19,984 | 416.3% | $-26,445 (vs do-nothing $-17,640) |
| $93 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/4 | $3,545 | $3,227 | 52% | 72% | +$1,151 | -$13,673 | 284.9% | $-20,915 (vs do-nothing $-12,110) |
| $92 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 3/4 | $4,525 | $4,193 | 51% | 70% | +$1,214 | -$20,044 | 417.6% | $-26,505 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $93 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 1/4 | $3,638 | $3,333 | 51% | 75% | +$1,648 | -$7,001 | 145.9% | $-15,025 (vs do-nothing $-6,220) |
| $92 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 2/4 | $3,845 | $3,527 | 49% | 70% | +$1,137 | -$13,763 | 286.7% | $-21,005 (vs do-nothing $-12,200) |
| $92.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 1/4 | $3,788 | $3,483 | 48% | 74% | +$1,606 | -$7,031 | 146.5% | $-15,055 (vs do-nothing $-6,250) |
| $92 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 1/4 | $4,012 | $3,708 | 46% | 73% | +$1,628 | -$7,051 | 146.9% | $-15,075 (vs do-nothing $-6,270) |
| $91.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 1/4 | $4,200 | $3,895 | 43% | 72% | +$1,600 | -$7,076 | 147.4% | $-15,100 (vs do-nothing $-6,295) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.