4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.51 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $7,091/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $346/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,584 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 4 × $103 | 90% | $3,960 | $2,189 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 4 × $100 | 73% | $3,927 | $1,024 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 17 Jul | 4d | 29.4% | 99+% | 1% | $60 | $450 | -$3,510 | $18,546 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 29.4% OTM over spot $92.71 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $60 credit for the 4d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $120.16) 99+% EV / mo +$445 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.4-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,549 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,252 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $136 @ 82% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.17/sh now → $5.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $47 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $120.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,546 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,480 (+$14,104 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,960, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,864, position total $-19,718 (+$12,866 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $106 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.3% | 95% | 11% | $348 | $2,610 | -$1,350 | $23,858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 14.3% OTM over spot $92.71 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.90 mid) = $348 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $106.90) 96% EV / mo +$2,354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.0-6.5] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,406 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,529 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.63/sh now → $4.69 mid-life (likely $3.95–$7.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 182 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $108 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $61 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $106.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$23,858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,792 (+$8,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,272, the opportunity cost of earning $2,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,176, position total $-25,030 (+$7,554 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $103 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.1% | 90% | 13% | $528 | $3,960 | — | $24,878 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 11.1% OTM over spot $92.71 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.38 mid) = $528 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $104.38) 93% EV / mo +$3,341 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.0-6.9] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 21% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,697 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,261 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $120 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.33/sh now → $4.47 mid-life (likely $3.92–$7.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $105 (overshoots $2.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $64 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $104.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$24,878 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,812 (+$7,772 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,292, the opportunity cost of earning $3,960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,196, position total $-26,050 (+$6,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.2% | 78% | 45% | $992 | $7,440 | +$3,480 | $26,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98.50 6.2% OTM over spot $92.71 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.62 mid) = $992 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $101.12) 86% EV / mo +$5,316 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.7-6.0] median, 1.0 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~16.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,095 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$670 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.87/sh now → $4.15 mid-life (likely $4.41–$7.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 910 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $101 (overshoots $2.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98.50 is $68 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $101.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98.50): -$26,214 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,148 (+$6,436 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,628, the opportunity cost of earning $7,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,532, position total $-27,386 (+$5,198 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $124 | 24 Jul | 11d | 33.7% | 98% | 4% | $148 | $404 | -$3,524 | $16,858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $124 33.7% OTM over spot $92.71 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.45 mid) = $148 credit for the 11d cycle → $404/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $124) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $124.44) 98% EV / mo +$347 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.5-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-519 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,239 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $131 @ 77% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.97/sh now → $8.47 mid-life (likely $5.19–$9.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 60 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $127 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $124 is $43 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $124.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $124)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $124): -$16,858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,792 (+$15,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,272, the opportunity cost of earning $404/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,176, position total $-18,030 (+$14,554 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $110 | 24 Jul | 11d | 18.6% | 90% | 20% | $548 | $1,495 | -$2,433 | $22,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $110 18.6% OTM over spot $92.71 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.47 mid) = $548 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,495/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $111.47) 92% EV / mo +$1,062 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.6-6.4] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,437 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,223 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $117 @ 78% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.79/sh now → $6.93 mid-life (likely $5.50–$9.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 457 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $113 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $57 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.37 collected) or spot ≥ $111.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$22,058 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,992 (+$10,592 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,472, the opportunity cost of earning $1,495/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,376, position total $-23,230 (+$9,354 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $105 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.3% | 84% | 34% | $904 | $2,465 | -$1,462 | $23,702 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 13.3% OTM over spot $92.71 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.36 mid) = $904 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,465/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $107.36) 87% EV / mo +$1,545 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [2.7-6.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.6 mo) · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 21% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,218 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,661 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.07/sh now → $6.41 mid-life (likely $6.16–$9.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 802 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $108 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $62 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $107.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$23,702 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,636 (+$8,948 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,116, the opportunity cost of earning $2,465/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,020, position total $-24,874 (+$7,710 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $100 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.9% | 73% | 45% | $1,440 | $3,927 | — | $25,166 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 7.9% OTM over spot $92.71 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.80 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $103.80) 81% EV / mo +$2,035 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [3.0-6.5] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~10.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,120 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$927 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.37/sh now → $5.92 mid-life (likely $6.62–$9.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,349 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $102 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $67 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $103.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$25,166 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,100 (+$7,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,580, the opportunity cost of earning $3,927/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,484, position total $-26,338 (+$6,246 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $93 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.3% | 54% | 98% | $2,600 | $7,091 | +$3,164 | $26,806 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $93 0.3% OTM over spot $92.71 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.85 mid) = $2,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $93) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $99.85) 73% EV / mo +$2,478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.9-6.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~34.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,685 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$497 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $111 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.43/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $7.47–$10.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,403 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $96 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $93 is $74 below CC-SS $166.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $99.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $128.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,584 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,650 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93): -$26,806 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,740 (+$5,844 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,520 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,220, the opportunity cost of earning $7,091/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,124, position total $-27,978 (+$4,606 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,650 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,520
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 4/4 | $3,960 | $3,614 | 90% | 93% | +$3,341 | -$24,878 | 518.3% | $-24,812 (vs do-nothing $-22,292) |
| $102 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 4/4 | $4,530 | $4,184 | 88% | 92% | +$3,706 | -$25,202 | 525.0% | $-25,136 (vs do-nothing $-22,616) |
| $101 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 3/4 | $3,938 | $3,605 | 86% | 90% | +$3,120 | -$19,129 | 398.5% | $-19,710 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $100 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 3/4 | $4,522 | $4,190 | 83% | 89% | +$3,448 | -$19,351 | 403.2% | $-19,932 (vs do-nothing $-17,412) |
| $99 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 3/4 | $5,040 | $4,708 | 80% | 87% | +$3,640 | -$19,582 | 408.0% | $-20,163 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $98.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 2/4 | $3,720 | $3,402 | 78% | 86% | +$2,658 | -$13,107 | 273.1% | $-14,334 (vs do-nothing $-11,814) |
| $98 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 2/4 | $3,945 | $3,627 | 76% | 85% | +$2,739 | -$13,177 | 274.5% | $-14,404 (vs do-nothing $-11,884) |
| $97.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 2/4 | $4,065 | $3,747 | 74% | 84% | +$2,700 | -$13,261 | 276.3% | $-14,488 (vs do-nothing $-11,968) |
| $100 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/4 | $3,927 | $3,582 | 73% | 81% | +$2,035 | -$25,166 | 524.3% | $-25,100 (vs do-nothing $-22,580) |
| $97 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/4 | $4,500 | $4,182 | 72% | 84% | +$2,959 | -$13,303 | 277.1% | $-14,530 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $99 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $4,200 | $3,854 | 71% | 80% | +$2,029 | -$25,466 | 530.5% | $-25,400 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $96.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/4 | $4,800 | $4,482 | 70% | 83% | +$3,066 | -$13,363 | 278.4% | $-14,590 (vs do-nothing $-12,070) |
| $98.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $4,364 | $4,018 | 70% | 80% | +$2,042 | -$25,606 | 533.5% | $-25,540 (vs do-nothing $-23,020) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/4 | $3,600 | $3,254 | 69% | 78% | +$1,454 | -$24,446 | 509.3% | $-24,380 (vs do-nothing $-21,860) |
| $98 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/4 | $4,691 | $4,345 | 68% | 79% | +$2,209 | -$25,686 | 535.1% | $-25,620 (vs do-nothing $-23,100) |
| $96 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 2/4 | $5,025 | $4,707 | 68% | 82% | +$3,078 | -$13,433 | 279.9% | $-14,660 (vs do-nothing $-12,140) |
| $99 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/4 | $3,667 | $3,321 | 67% | 77% | +$1,316 | -$24,806 | 516.8% | $-24,740 (vs do-nothing $-22,220) |
| $97.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,268 | 67% | 78% | +$1,612 | -$19,384 | 403.8% | $-19,965 (vs do-nothing $-17,445) |
| $98.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 4/4 | $3,832 | $3,486 | 67% | 78% | +$1,647 | -$24,907 | 518.9% | $-24,841 (vs do-nothing $-22,321) |
| $97 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/4 | $3,764 | $3,432 | 65% | 78% | +$1,641 | -$19,474 | 405.7% | $-20,055 (vs do-nothing $-17,535) |
| $98 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/4 | $4,133 | $3,788 | 65% | 76% | +$1,562 | -$24,926 | 519.3% | $-24,860 (vs do-nothing $-22,340) |
| $97.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.16 | 4/4 | $4,104 | $3,758 | 65% | 77% | +$1,700 | -$25,144 | 523.8% | $-25,078 (vs do-nothing $-22,558) |
| $96.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $3,968 | $3,636 | 64% | 77% | +$1,705 | -$19,549 | 407.3% | $-20,130 (vs do-nothing $-17,610) |
| $95 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/4 | $5,775 | $5,457 | 63% | 80% | +$3,344 | -$13,533 | 281.9% | $-14,760 (vs do-nothing $-12,240) |
| $97 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 4/4 | $4,233 | $3,888 | 63% | 75% | +$1,425 | -$25,266 | 526.4% | $-25,200 (vs do-nothing $-22,680) |
| $96 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/4 | $4,132 | $3,800 | 63% | 76% | +$1,721 | -$19,639 | 409.2% | $-20,220 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $96.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.57 | 4/4 | $4,383 | $4,037 | 62% | 76% | +$1,743 | -$25,376 | 528.7% | $-25,310 (vs do-nothing $-22,790) |
| $96 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 4/4 | $4,567 | $4,221 | 61% | 74% | +$1,504 | -$25,466 | 530.5% | $-25,400 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $95 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/4 | $4,664 | $4,332 | 60% | 75% | +$1,934 | -$19,744 | 411.3% | $-20,325 (vs do-nothing $-17,805) |
| $95 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/4 | $3,775 | $3,443 | 59% | 74% | +$1,274 | -$19,189 | 399.8% | $-19,770 (vs do-nothing $-17,250) |
| $94 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/4 | $6,600 | $6,282 | 58% | 78% | +$3,599 | -$13,623 | 283.8% | $-14,850 (vs do-nothing $-12,330) |
| $94 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $4,950 | $4,618 | 57% | 74% | +$1,871 | -$19,939 | 415.4% | $-20,520 (vs do-nothing $-18,000) |
| $94 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 3/4 | $3,900 | $3,568 | 57% | 73% | +$1,182 | -$19,414 | 404.5% | $-19,995 (vs do-nothing $-17,475) |
| $93.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $6,750 | $6,432 | 56% | 77% | +$3,431 | -$13,703 | 285.5% | $-14,930 (vs do-nothing $-12,410) |
| $93 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/4 | $4,125 | $3,793 | 54% | 72% | +$1,176 | -$19,579 | 407.9% | $-20,160 (vs do-nothing $-17,640) |
| $93 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/4 | $3,545 | $3,227 | 54% | 73% | +$1,239 | -$13,403 | 279.2% | $-14,630 (vs do-nothing $-12,110) |
| $93 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 1/4 | $3,638 | $3,333 | 53% | 76% | +$1,808 | -$6,866 | 143.1% | $-8,740 (vs do-nothing $-6,220) |
| $92 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 3/4 | $4,525 | $4,193 | 52% | 71% | +$1,331 | -$19,639 | 409.2% | $-20,220 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $92 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 2/4 | $3,845 | $3,527 | 51% | 72% | +$1,264 | -$13,493 | 281.1% | $-14,720 (vs do-nothing $-12,200) |
| $92.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 1/4 | $3,788 | $3,483 | 51% | 75% | +$1,775 | -$6,896 | 143.7% | $-8,770 (vs do-nothing $-6,250) |
| $91 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 3/4 | $4,600 | $4,268 | 50% | 70% | +$1,146 | -$19,894 | 414.5% | $-20,475 (vs do-nothing $-17,955) |
| $92 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 1/4 | $4,012 | $3,708 | 48% | 74% | +$1,781 | -$6,916 | 144.1% | $-8,790 (vs do-nothing $-6,270) |
| $91 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 2/4 | $4,173 | $3,854 | 47% | 70% | +$1,295 | -$13,573 | 282.8% | $-14,800 (vs do-nothing $-12,280) |
| $91.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 1/4 | $4,200 | $3,895 | 45% | 74% | +$1,764 | -$6,941 | 144.6% | $-8,815 (vs do-nothing $-6,295) |
| $91 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 1/4 | $4,538 | $4,233 | 43% | 73% | +$1,886 | -$6,946 | 144.7% | $-8,820 (vs do-nothing $-6,300) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.