4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,695/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $374/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-33,720 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 4 × $99 | 82% | $3,300 | $930 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 4 × $98.50 | 72% | $2,935 | $440 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $114 | 17 Jul | 4d | 25.0% | 98% | 5% | $52 | $390 | -$2,910 | $21,460 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $114 25.0% OTM over spot $91.23 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $52 credit for the 4d cycle → $390/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $114.14) 98% EV / mo +$263 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-5.8] median · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-420 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,462 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $131 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $54 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $114.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$21,460 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,529 (+$12,191 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,352, the opportunity cost of earning $390/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,508, position total $-22,811 (+$10,909 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $103 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.9% | 91% | 19% | $228 | $1,710 | -$1,590 | $25,684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 12.9% OTM over spot $91.23 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.60 mid) = $228 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $103.61) 92% EV / mo +$1,033 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.5-6.0] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,254 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,063 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $2.97–$5.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 427 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $106 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $103.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$25,684 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,753 (+$7,967 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,576, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,732, position total $-27,035 (+$6,685 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $102 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.8% | 89% | 23% | $268 | $2,010 | -$1,290 | $26,044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $102 11.8% OTM over spot $91.23 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.73 mid) = $268 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,010/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $102.72) 90% EV / mo +$1,127 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.4-5.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,210 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,003 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $120 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.49/sh now → $3.18 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 449 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $105 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $66 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $102.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $102): -$26,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,113 (+$7,607 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,936, the opportunity cost of earning $2,010/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,092, position total $-27,395 (+$6,325 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $99 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.5% | 82% | 26% | $440 | $3,300 | — | $27,072 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 8.5% OTM over spot $91.23 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.14 mid) = $440 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $100.14) 85% EV / mo +$1,439 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.2-6.4] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~14.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,153 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$774 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.29/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $3.17–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 781 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $102 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $69 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $100.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$27,072 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,141 (+$6,579 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,964, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,120, position total $-28,423 (+$5,297 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $95 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.1% | 68% | 66% | $832 | $6,240 | +$2,940 | $28,280 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $95 4.1% OTM over spot $91.23 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.12 mid) = $832 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $97.12) 76% EV / mo +$1,809 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-6.0] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~27.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,553 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$307 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.02/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $3.54–$5.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,441 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $98 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $73 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.08 collected) or spot ≥ $97.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $95): -$28,280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,349 (+$5,371 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,172, the opportunity cost of earning $6,240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,328, position total $-29,631 (+$4,089 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $117 | 24 Jul | 11d | 28.2% | 95% | 10% | $180 | $491 | -$2,444 | $20,132 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $117 28.2% OTM over spot $91.23 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $180 credit for the 11d cycle → $491/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $117) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $117.48) 95% EV / mo +$308 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.0-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-235 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,299 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.76/sh now → $6.20 mid-life (likely $4.52–$7.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 199 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $120 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $117 is $51 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $117.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $117)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $117): -$20,132 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,201 (+$13,519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,024, the opportunity cost of earning $491/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,180, position total $-21,483 (+$12,237 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $111 | 24 Jul | 11d | 21.7% | 91% | 19% | $304 | $829 | -$2,105 | $22,408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 21.7% OTM over spot $91.23 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.83 mid) = $304 credit for the 11d cycle → $829/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $111.83) 91% EV / mo +$358 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.5] median · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $848 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,972 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $118 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.04/sh now → $5.69 mid-life (likely $4.77–$7.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 391 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $114 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $111.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,408 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,477 (+$11,243 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,300, the opportunity cost of earning $829/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,456, position total $-23,759 (+$9,961 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $102 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.8% | 78% | 45% | $752 | $2,051 | -$884 | $25,560 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $102 11.8% OTM over spot $91.23 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.95 mid) = $752 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,051/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $103.95) 82% EV / mo +$465 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-6.0] median · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~8.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,876 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,235 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $113 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $4.88–$7.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,060 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $105 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $66 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.88 collected) or spot ≥ $103.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $102): -$25,560 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,629 (+$8,091 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,452, the opportunity cost of earning $2,051/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,608, position total $-26,911 (+$6,809 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $98.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.0% | 72% | 49% | $1,076 | $2,935 | — | $26,636 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98.50 8.0% OTM over spot $91.23 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.76 mid) = $1,076 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,935/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $101.27) 78% EV / mo +$677 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.0-7.0] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~11.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,841 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$804 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $113 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.64/sh now → $4.70 mid-life (likely $5.35–$7.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,460 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $101 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98.50 is $69 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.69 collected) or spot ≥ $101.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98.50): -$26,636 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,705 (+$7,015 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,528, the opportunity cost of earning $2,935/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,684, position total $-27,987 (+$5,733 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $91 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.3% | 52% | 99+% | $2,180 | $5,945 | +$3,011 | $28,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $91 0.3% ITM over spot $91.23 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.72 mid) = $2,180 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,945/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $96.72) 68% EV / mo +$699 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$521 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $110 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.86/sh now → $4.15 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $77 below CC-SS $167.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.36/sh (~25% of the $5.45 collected) or spot ≥ $96.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,720 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,652 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $91): -$28,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,601 (+$5,119 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,177 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,424, the opportunity cost of earning $5,945/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,580, position total $-29,883 (+$3,837 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.099 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,652 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,177
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 4/4 | $3,300 | $2,926 | 82% | 85% | +$1,439 | -$27,072 | 564.0% | $-27,141 (vs do-nothing $-23,964) |
| $98.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 4/4 | $3,480 | $3,106 | 80% | 84% | +$1,390 | -$27,248 | 567.7% | $-27,317 (vs do-nothing $-24,140) |
| $98 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 4/4 | $3,780 | $3,406 | 79% | 83% | +$1,437 | -$27,408 | 571.0% | $-27,477 (vs do-nothing $-24,300) |
| $97.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 3/4 | $3,082 | $2,711 | 77% | 82% | +$1,117 | -$20,673 | 430.7% | $-21,519 (vs do-nothing $-18,342) |
| $97 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 3/4 | $3,308 | $2,936 | 76% | 80% | +$1,114 | -$20,793 | 433.2% | $-21,639 (vs do-nothing $-18,462) |
| $96.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,228 | 74% | 79% | +$1,158 | -$20,904 | 435.5% | $-21,750 (vs do-nothing $-18,573) |
| $96 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 3/4 | $3,938 | $3,566 | 72% | 78% | +$1,225 | -$21,009 | 437.7% | $-21,855 (vs do-nothing $-18,678) |
| $98.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.69 | 4/4 | $2,935 | $2,560 | 72% | 78% | +$677 | -$26,636 | 554.9% | $-26,705 (vs do-nothing $-23,528) |
| $98 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 4/4 | $3,065 | $2,691 | 71% | 77% | +$669 | -$26,788 | 558.1% | $-26,857 (vs do-nothing $-23,680) |
| $97.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 4/4 | $3,218 | $2,844 | 70% | 76% | +$674 | -$26,932 | 561.1% | $-27,001 (vs do-nothing $-23,824) |
| $97 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 4/4 | $3,382 | $3,007 | 68% | 76% | +$683 | -$27,072 | 564.0% | $-27,141 (vs do-nothing $-23,964) |
| $95 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 2/4 | $3,120 | $2,751 | 68% | 76% | +$904 | -$14,140 | 294.6% | $-15,763 (vs do-nothing $-12,586) |
| $98 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/4 | $2,900 | $2,526 | 68% | 75% | +$519 | -$26,172 | 545.3% | $-26,241 (vs do-nothing $-23,064) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/4 | $3,545 | $3,171 | 67% | 75% | +$684 | -$27,212 | 566.9% | $-27,281 (vs do-nothing $-24,104) |
| $97.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/4 | $3,000 | $2,626 | 67% | 75% | +$514 | -$26,312 | 548.2% | $-26,381 (vs do-nothing $-23,204) |
| $96 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 4/4 | $3,764 | $3,389 | 66% | 74% | +$731 | -$27,332 | 569.4% | $-27,401 (vs do-nothing $-24,224) |
| $97 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 4/4 | $3,133 | $2,759 | 66% | 74% | +$539 | -$26,432 | 550.7% | $-26,501 (vs do-nothing $-23,324) |
| $96.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/4 | $3,267 | $2,892 | 65% | 74% | +$559 | -$26,552 | 553.2% | $-26,621 (vs do-nothing $-23,444) |
| $94 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.34 | 2/4 | $3,510 | $3,141 | 64% | 74% | +$819 | -$14,288 | 297.7% | $-15,911 (vs do-nothing $-12,734) |
| $96 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 4/4 | $3,367 | $2,992 | 64% | 73% | +$542 | -$26,692 | 556.1% | $-26,761 (vs do-nothing $-23,584) |
| $95 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 3/4 | $3,109 | $2,737 | 63% | 73% | +$559 | -$20,694 | 431.1% | $-21,540 (vs do-nothing $-18,363) |
| $93.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.51 | 2/4 | $3,765 | $3,396 | 62% | 72% | +$810 | -$14,354 | 299.0% | $-15,977 (vs do-nothing $-12,800) |
| $95 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/4 | $3,667 | $3,292 | 62% | 72% | +$596 | -$26,912 | 560.7% | $-26,981 (vs do-nothing $-23,804) |
| $94 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 3/4 | $3,395 | $3,024 | 61% | 72% | +$542 | -$20,889 | 435.2% | $-21,735 (vs do-nothing $-18,558) |
| $94 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 3/4 | $2,925 | $2,553 | 60% | 71% | +$425 | -$20,379 | 424.6% | $-21,225 (vs do-nothing $-18,048) |
| $93 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.68 | 2/4 | $4,020 | $3,651 | 60% | 71% | +$619 | -$14,420 | 300.4% | $-16,043 (vs do-nothing $-12,866) |
| $93 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 3/4 | $3,723 | $3,351 | 58% | 70% | +$538 | -$21,069 | 438.9% | $-21,915 (vs do-nothing $-18,738) |
| $93 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/4 | $3,100 | $2,728 | 58% | 70% | +$389 | -$20,574 | 428.6% | $-21,420 (vs do-nothing $-18,243) |
| $92.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 2/4 | $4,410 | $4,041 | 58% | 70% | +$705 | -$14,468 | 301.4% | $-16,091 (vs do-nothing $-12,914) |
| $92 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 3/4 | $3,325 | $2,953 | 56% | 69% | +$391 | -$20,739 | 432.1% | $-21,585 (vs do-nothing $-18,408) |
| $92 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/4 | $4,725 | $4,356 | 55% | 69% | +$697 | -$14,526 | 302.6% | $-16,149 (vs do-nothing $-12,972) |
| $92 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/4 | $4,091 | $3,719 | 55% | 69% | +$546 | -$21,234 | 442.4% | $-22,080 (vs do-nothing $-18,903) |
| $91 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/4 | $3,525 | $3,153 | 54% | 68% | +$353 | -$20,919 | 435.8% | $-21,765 (vs do-nothing $-18,588) |
| $91.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/4 | $4,950 | $4,581 | 53% | 68% | +$579 | -$14,596 | 304.1% | $-16,219 (vs do-nothing $-13,042) |
| $91 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 2/4 | $2,973 | $2,604 | 52% | 68% | +$349 | -$14,266 | 297.2% | $-15,889 (vs do-nothing $-12,712) |
| $90 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/4 | $3,800 | $3,428 | 51% | 67% | +$377 | -$21,054 | 438.6% | $-21,900 (vs do-nothing $-18,723) |
| $91 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 2/4 | $5,250 | $4,881 | 51% | 67% | +$516 | -$14,656 | 305.3% | $-16,279 (vs do-nothing $-13,102) |
| $90 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/4 | $3,273 | $2,904 | 49% | 66% | +$369 | -$14,356 | 299.1% | $-15,979 (vs do-nothing $-12,802) |
| $90 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 1/4 | $3,075 | $2,709 | 46% | 65% | +$315 | -$7,368 | 153.5% | $-9,768 (vs do-nothing $-6,591) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.