4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $167.63 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $4,729/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $369/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,178 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 4 × $104 | 86% | $2,680 | $821 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 4 × $104 | 76% | $2,436 | $406 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $115 | 17 Jul | 3d | 21.3% | 99% | 2% | $40 | $400 | -$2,280 | $21,010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $115 21.3% OTM over spot $94.81 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $40 credit for the 3d cycle → $400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $115.12) 99% EV / mo +$376 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [2.0-5.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,671 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,251 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $133 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $53 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $115.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$21,010 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,802 (+$11,376 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,964, the opportunity cost of earning $400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,192, position total $-22,238 (+$9,940 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $107 | 17 Jul | 3d | 12.9% | 94% | 13% | $160 | $1,600 | -$1,080 | $24,090 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $107 12.9% OTM over spot $94.81 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.43 mid) = $160 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $107.44) 94% EV / mo +$1,131 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.4-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,154 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$994 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.08/sh now → $2.89 mid-life (likely $2.56–$4.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $110 (overshoots $2.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $61 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $107.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $107): -$24,090 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,882 (+$8,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,044, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,272, position total $-25,318 (+$6,860 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 3d | 10.7% | 90% | 20% | $224 | $2,240 | -$440 | $24,826 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 10.7% OTM over spot $94.81 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid) = $224 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $105.60) 91% EV / mo +$1,360 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,030 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$897 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.96/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $2.79–$5.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $108 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $63 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $105.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,826 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,618 (+$7,560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,780, the opportunity cost of earning $2,240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,008, position total $-26,054 (+$6,124 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $104 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.7% | 86% | 17% | $268 | $2,680 | — | $25,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 9.7% OTM over spot $94.81 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.73 mid) = $268 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $104.72) 87% EV / mo +$924 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~13.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,885 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$837 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $2.83–$5.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 505 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $107 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $64 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $104.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$25,182 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,974 (+$7,204 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,136, the opportunity cost of earning $2,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,364, position total $-26,410 (+$5,768 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $100 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.5% | 74% | 53% | $548 | $5,480 | +$2,800 | $26,502 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 5.5% OTM over spot $94.81 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.44 mid) = $548 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $101.44) 79% EV / mo +$1,300 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.9-4.7] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~24.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,409 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$492 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $3.03–$5.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,053 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $103 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $68 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.37 collected) or spot ≥ $101.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$26,502 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,294 (+$5,884 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,456, the opportunity cost of earning $5,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,684, position total $-27,730 (+$4,448 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.6% | 95% | 10% | $144 | $432 | -$2,004 | $18,906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 26.6% OTM over spot $94.81 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.42 mid) = $144 credit for the 10d cycle → $432/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $120.42) 95% EV / mo +$229 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.1-5.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-407 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,161 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $127 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.15/sh now → $5.76 mid-life (likely $4.39–$7.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 217 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $123 (overshoots $3.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $48 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $120.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,906 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,698 (+$13,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,860, the opportunity cost of earning $432/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,088, position total $-20,134 (+$12,044 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $114 | 24 Jul | 10d | 20.2% | 90% | 20% | $268 | $804 | -$1,632 | $21,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $114 20.2% OTM over spot $94.81 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.75 mid) = $268 credit for the 10d cycle → $804/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $114.75) 91% EV / mo +$284 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.0-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 25% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $818 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,853 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.50/sh now → $5.30 mid-life (likely $4.50–$7.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 411 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $117 (overshoots $3.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $54 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $114.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$21,182 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,974 (+$11,204 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,136, the opportunity cost of earning $804/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,364, position total $-22,410 (+$9,768 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $107 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.9% | 82% | 38% | $592 | $1,776 | -$660 | $23,658 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $107 12.9% OTM over spot $94.81 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.56 mid) = $592 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,776/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $108.56) 84% EV / mo +$509 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [2.2-5.0] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,488 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,324 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $117 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.77/sh now → $4.79 mid-life (likely $4.82–$7.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 850 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $110 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $61 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.48 collected) or spot ≥ $108.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $107): -$23,658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,450 (+$8,728 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,612, the opportunity cost of earning $1,776/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,840, position total $-24,886 (+$7,292 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $104 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.7% | 76% | 37% | $812 | $2,436 | — | $24,638 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 9.7% OTM over spot $94.81 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.13 mid) = $812 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $106.14) 80% EV / mo +$557 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.3-6.2] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~9.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,766 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,019 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.47/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $4.89–$7.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,109 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $107 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $64 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.03 collected) or spot ≥ $106.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$24,638 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,430 (+$7,748 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,592, the opportunity cost of earning $2,436/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,820, position total $-25,866 (+$6,312 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $97 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.3% | 59% | 86% | $1,580 | $4,740 | +$2,304 | $26,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $97 2.3% OTM over spot $94.81 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.33 mid) = $1,580 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $101.33) 70% EV / mo +$343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-4.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~24.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,542 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$59 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $118 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.79/sh now → $4.10 mid-life (likely $5.51–$7.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,124 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $100 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $71 below CC-SS $167.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.99/sh (~25% of the $3.95 collected) or spot ≥ $101.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $167.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,178 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,386 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $97): -$26,670 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,462 (+$5,716 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,624, the opportunity cost of earning $4,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.58 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,852, position total $-27,898 (+$4,280 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 46 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,386 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,838
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 4/4 | $2,680 | $2,311 | 86% | 87% | +$924 | -$25,182 | 524.6% | $-24,974 (vs do-nothing $-22,136) |
| $103 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 3/4 | $2,400 | $2,034 | 83% | 85% | +$756 | -$19,148 | 398.9% | $-19,701 (vs do-nothing $-16,863) |
| $102 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 3/4 | $2,880 | $2,514 | 80% | 83% | +$833 | -$19,400 | 404.2% | $-19,953 (vs do-nothing $-17,115) |
| $101 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 3/4 | $3,420 | $3,054 | 77% | 81% | +$881 | -$19,646 | 409.3% | $-20,199 (vs do-nothing $-17,361) |
| $104 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 4/4 | $2,436 | $2,067 | 76% | 80% | +$557 | -$24,638 | 513.3% | $-24,430 (vs do-nothing $-21,592) |
| $103 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 4/4 | $2,712 | $2,343 | 74% | 79% | +$576 | -$24,946 | 519.7% | $-24,738 (vs do-nothing $-21,900) |
| $100 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 2/4 | $2,740 | $2,377 | 74% | 79% | +$650 | -$13,251 | 276.1% | $-14,566 (vs do-nothing $-11,728) |
| $102 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.51 | 4/4 | $3,012 | $2,643 | 72% | 78% | +$589 | -$25,246 | 526.0% | $-25,038 (vs do-nothing $-22,200) |
| $104 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/4 | $2,471 | $2,101 | 72% | 78% | +$377 | -$24,050 | 501.0% | $-23,842 (vs do-nothing $-21,004) |
| $99 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 2/4 | $3,240 | $2,877 | 70% | 77% | +$673 | -$13,401 | 279.2% | $-14,716 (vs do-nothing $-11,878) |
| $103 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $2,718 | $2,349 | 70% | 77% | +$433 | -$24,310 | 506.5% | $-24,102 (vs do-nothing $-21,264) |
| $101 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 3/4 | $2,502 | $2,136 | 70% | 76% | +$444 | -$19,154 | 399.0% | $-19,707 (vs do-nothing $-16,869) |
| $98.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 2/4 | $3,560 | $3,197 | 68% | 75% | +$722 | -$13,469 | 280.6% | $-14,784 (vs do-nothing $-11,946) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $2,929 | $2,560 | 68% | 76% | +$440 | -$24,590 | 512.3% | $-24,382 (vs do-nothing $-21,544) |
| $100 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/4 | $2,745 | $2,379 | 67% | 75% | +$421 | -$19,373 | 403.6% | $-19,926 (vs do-nothing $-17,088) |
| $101 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/4 | $3,071 | $2,701 | 66% | 75% | +$362 | -$24,910 | 519.0% | $-24,702 (vs do-nothing $-21,864) |
| $98 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.92 | 2/4 | $3,840 | $3,477 | 66% | 74% | +$707 | -$13,541 | 282.1% | $-14,856 (vs do-nothing $-12,018) |
| $99 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/4 | $2,970 | $2,604 | 65% | 73% | +$351 | -$19,598 | 408.3% | $-20,151 (vs do-nothing $-17,313) |
| $100 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/4 | $2,515 | $2,149 | 64% | 73% | +$308 | -$18,863 | 393.0% | $-19,416 (vs do-nothing $-16,578) |
| $97.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 2/4 | $4,160 | $3,797 | 64% | 73% | +$707 | -$13,609 | 283.5% | $-14,924 (vs do-nothing $-12,086) |
| $98.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 3/4 | $3,015 | $2,649 | 63% | 72% | +$238 | -$19,733 | 411.1% | $-20,286 (vs do-nothing $-17,448) |
| $99 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/4 | $2,647 | $2,281 | 63% | 72% | +$252 | -$19,088 | 397.7% | $-19,641 (vs do-nothing $-16,803) |
| $97 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 2/4 | $4,520 | $4,157 | 62% | 72% | +$721 | -$13,673 | 284.9% | $-14,988 (vs do-nothing $-12,150) |
| $98 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 3/4 | $3,150 | $2,784 | 62% | 72% | +$207 | -$19,838 | 413.3% | $-20,391 (vs do-nothing $-17,553) |
| $98.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/4 | $2,806 | $2,440 | 62% | 72% | +$313 | -$19,148 | 398.9% | $-19,701 (vs do-nothing $-16,863) |
| $98 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/4 | $2,912 | $2,546 | 61% | 71% | +$317 | -$19,238 | 400.8% | $-19,791 (vs do-nothing $-16,953) |
| $97.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/4 | $3,330 | $2,964 | 60% | 71% | +$214 | -$19,928 | 415.2% | $-20,481 (vs do-nothing $-17,643) |
| $96.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 1/4 | $2,390 | $2,030 | 60% | 70% | +$304 | -$6,874 | 143.2% | $-8,950 (vs do-nothing $-6,112) |
| $97.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/4 | $2,991 | $2,625 | 60% | 71% | +$292 | -$19,343 | 403.0% | $-19,896 (vs do-nothing $-17,058) |
| $97 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/4 | $2,370 | $2,007 | 59% | 70% | +$172 | -$13,335 | 277.8% | $-14,650 (vs do-nothing $-11,812) |
| $97 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/4 | $3,124 | $2,757 | 58% | 70% | +$328 | -$19,418 | 404.5% | $-19,971 (vs do-nothing $-17,133) |
| $96.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/4 | $2,520 | $2,157 | 58% | 70% | +$196 | -$13,385 | 278.9% | $-14,700 (vs do-nothing $-11,862) |
| $96.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/4 | $3,203 | $2,837 | 57% | 70% | +$294 | -$19,523 | 406.7% | $-20,076 (vs do-nothing $-17,238) |
| $96 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 1/4 | $2,650 | $2,290 | 57% | 69% | +$363 | -$6,898 | 143.7% | $-8,974 (vs do-nothing $-6,136) |
| $96 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 3/4 | $3,335 | $2,969 | 56% | 69% | +$310 | -$19,598 | 408.3% | $-20,151 (vs do-nothing $-17,313) |
| $96 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $2,700 | $2,337 | 56% | 69% | +$244 | -$13,425 | 279.7% | $-14,740 (vs do-nothing $-11,902) |
| $95 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 2/4 | $2,365 | $2,002 | 54% | 68% | +$185 | -$13,185 | 274.7% | $-14,500 (vs do-nothing $-11,662) |
| $95 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 2/4 | $2,910 | $2,547 | 53% | 67% | +$175 | -$13,555 | 282.4% | $-14,870 (vs do-nothing $-12,032) |
| $95 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/4 | $3,000 | $2,640 | 53% | 67% | +$268 | -$6,963 | 145.1% | $-9,039 (vs do-nothing $-6,201) |
| $94 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 2/4 | $2,576 | $2,213 | 52% | 68% | +$224 | -$13,265 | 276.4% | $-14,580 (vs do-nothing $-11,742) |
| $94 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 2/4 | $3,210 | $2,847 | 51% | 66% | +$174 | -$13,655 | 284.5% | $-14,970 (vs do-nothing $-12,132) |
| $93 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 2/4 | $2,682 | $2,319 | 50% | 66% | +$148 | -$13,405 | 279.3% | $-14,720 (vs do-nothing $-11,882) |
| $94 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 1/4 | $3,450 | $3,090 | 48% | 65% | +$214 | -$7,018 | 146.2% | $-9,094 (vs do-nothing $-6,256) |
| $93 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/4 | $3,510 | $3,147 | 48% | 65% | +$151 | -$13,755 | 286.6% | $-15,070 (vs do-nothing $-12,232) |
| $93.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 1/4 | $3,700 | $3,340 | 45% | 64% | +$190 | -$7,043 | 146.7% | $-9,119 (vs do-nothing $-6,281) |
| $93 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 1/4 | $3,950 | $3,590 | 43% | 63% | +$150 | -$7,068 | 147.2% | $-9,144 (vs do-nothing $-6,306) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.