4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.37 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,625/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $319/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,694 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 4 × $108 | 96% | $3,060 | $2,174 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 4 × $107 | 79% | $2,880 | $747 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $122 | 17 Jul | 2d | 25.9% | 99+% | 1% | $24 | $360 | -$2,700 | $18,523 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $122 25.9% OTM over spot $96.88 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $24 credit for the 2d cycle → $360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $122.07) 99+% EV / mo +$343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.6] median · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,442 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,424 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $144 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.12/sh now → $3.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $46 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $122.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $122): -$18,523 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,217 (+$13,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,228, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,452, position total $-19,772 (+$11,922 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $109 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.5% | 97% | 6% | $129 | $1,935 | -$1,125 | $17,681 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $109 12.5% OTM over spot $96.88 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.48 mid) = $129 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,935/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $109) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $109.48) 97% EV / mo +$1,797 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,201 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$776 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $130 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.27/sh now → $3.02 mid-life (likely $2.76–$5.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 94 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $111 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $109 is $59 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $109.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $109): -$17,681 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $160): -$824 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,199 (+$13,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,210, the opportunity cost of earning $1,935/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,878, position total $-22,185 (+$9,509 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.5% | 96% | 5% | $204 | $3,060 | — | $23,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 11.5% OTM over spot $96.88 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.57 mid) = $204 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $108.57) 96% EV / mo +$2,770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-6.2] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,499 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$985 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $129 @ 88% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $2.90–$6.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 149 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $110 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $108.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,637 (+$8,057 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,648, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,872, position total $-25,192 (+$6,502 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $105 | 17 Jul | 2d | 8.4% | 90% | 20% | $372 | $5,580 | +$2,520 | $24,975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 8.4% OTM over spot $96.88 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.95 mid) = $372 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $105.94) 92% EV / mo +$4,558 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.0-5.5] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,415 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$765 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.02/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $2.96–$6.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $108 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $63 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.93 collected) or spot ≥ $105.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$24,975 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,669 (+$7,025 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,680, the opportunity cost of earning $5,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,904, position total $-26,224 (+$5,470 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $104 | 17 Jul | 2d | 7.4% | 87% | 26% | $424 | $6,360 | +$3,300 | $25,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 7.4% OTM over spot $96.88 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.12 mid) = $424 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $105.12) 90% EV / mo +$4,866 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.0-5.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~14.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,229 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$695 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.96/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $3.01–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 438 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $106 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $64 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $105.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$25,323 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,017 (+$6,677 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,028, the opportunity cost of earning $6,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,252, position total $-26,572 (+$5,122 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $127 | 24 Jul | 9d | 31.1% | 97% | 6% | $104 | $347 | -$2,533 | $16,443 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $127 31.1% OTM over spot $96.88 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $104 credit for the 9d cycle → $347/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $127) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $127.32) 97% EV / mo +$227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.1-5.3] median · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-297 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,395 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.83/sh now → $6.25 mid-life (likely $4.04–$6.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 79 simulated challenges: the $127 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $130 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $127 is $41 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $127.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $127): -$16,443 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,137 (+$15,557 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,148, the opportunity cost of earning $347/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,372, position total $-17,692 (+$14,002 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $115 | 24 Jul | 9d | 18.7% | 91% | 19% | $364 | $1,213 | -$1,667 | $20,983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $115 18.7% OTM over spot $96.88 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.01 mid) = $364 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,213/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $116.00) 92% EV / mo +$716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.5-6.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,028 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,762 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.51/sh now → $5.32 mid-life (likely $4.56–$7.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $118 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $53 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $116.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$20,983 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,677 (+$11,017 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,688, the opportunity cost of earning $1,213/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,912, position total $-22,232 (+$9,462 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $111 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.6% | 86% | 30% | $564 | $1,880 | -$1,000 | $22,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 14.6% OTM over spot $96.88 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.50 mid) = $564 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $112.50) 88% EV / mo +$938 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.1-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,897 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,444 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.10/sh now → $5.02 mid-life (likely $4.70–$7.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 689 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $114 (overshoots $2.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.41 collected) or spot ≥ $112.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,077 (+$9,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,088, the opportunity cost of earning $1,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,312, position total $-23,632 (+$8,062 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $107 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.5% | 79% | 34% | $864 | $2,880 | — | $23,683 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $107 10.5% OTM over spot $96.88 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.24 mid) = $864 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $109.24) 83% EV / mo +$1,181 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.5-5.3] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,029 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $122 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.69/sh now → $4.73 mid-life (likely $4.87–$7.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,014 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $110 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $61 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.16 collected) or spot ≥ $109.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $107): -$23,683 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,377 (+$8,317 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,388, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,612, position total $-24,932 (+$6,762 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.2% | 59% | 86% | $1,800 | $6,000 | +$3,120 | $25,947 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 2.2% OTM over spot $96.88 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.62 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $103.62) 71% EV / mo +$1,282 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-5.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~25.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,791 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$127 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.91/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $5.66–$8.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,079 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $102 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $69 below CC-SS $168.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $103.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,694 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,000 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$25,947 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,641 (+$6,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,652, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,876, position total $-27,196 (+$4,498 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.119 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,000 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,989
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $108 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 4/4 | $3,060 | $2,741 | 96% | 96% | +$2,770 | -$23,943 | 498.8% | $-23,637 (vs do-nothing $-20,648) |
| $107 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 4/4 | $3,720 | $3,401 | 94% | 95% | +$3,270 | -$24,299 | 506.2% | $-23,993 (vs do-nothing $-21,004) |
| $106 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 3/4 | $3,330 | $3,035 | 92% | 94% | +$2,816 | -$18,488 | 385.2% | $-19,006 (vs do-nothing $-16,017) |
| $105 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 3/4 | $4,185 | $3,890 | 90% | 92% | +$3,419 | -$18,731 | 390.2% | $-19,249 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $104 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 2/4 | $3,180 | $2,909 | 87% | 90% | +$2,433 | -$12,662 | 263.8% | $-14,003 (vs do-nothing $-11,014) |
| $103 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 2/4 | $3,810 | $3,539 | 84% | 88% | +$2,740 | -$12,820 | 267.1% | $-14,161 (vs do-nothing $-11,172) |
| $102 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 2/4 | $4,530 | $4,259 | 80% | 86% | +$3,026 | -$12,972 | 270.2% | $-14,313 (vs do-nothing $-11,324) |
| $107 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 4/4 | $2,880 | $2,561 | 79% | 83% | +$1,181 | -$23,683 | 493.4% | $-23,377 (vs do-nothing $-20,388) |
| $106 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 4/4 | $3,173 | $2,854 | 77% | 82% | +$1,220 | -$23,995 | 499.9% | $-23,689 (vs do-nothing $-20,700) |
| $101 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 2/4 | $5,370 | $5,099 | 75% | 83% | +$3,298 | -$13,116 | 273.2% | $-14,457 (vs do-nothing $-11,468) |
| $105 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 4/4 | $3,520 | $3,201 | 75% | 80% | +$1,282 | -$24,291 | 506.1% | $-23,985 (vs do-nothing $-20,996) |
| $107 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $2,888 | $2,568 | 74% | 80% | +$1,042 | -$23,007 | 479.3% | $-22,701 (vs do-nothing $-19,712) |
| $106 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/4 | $3,113 | $2,793 | 72% | 79% | +$1,083 | -$23,287 | 485.1% | $-22,981 (vs do-nothing $-19,992) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 3/4 | $2,920 | $2,625 | 72% | 79% | +$974 | -$18,434 | 384.0% | $-18,952 (vs do-nothing $-15,963) |
| $105 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/4 | $3,338 | $3,018 | 70% | 78% | +$1,110 | -$23,567 | 491.0% | $-23,261 (vs do-nothing $-20,272) |
| $100 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 1/4 | $3,150 | $2,904 | 70% | 80% | +$1,751 | -$6,627 | 138.1% | $-8,792 (vs do-nothing $-5,803) |
| $103 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/4 | $3,100 | $2,805 | 70% | 77% | +$895 | -$18,680 | 389.2% | $-19,198 (vs do-nothing $-16,209) |
| $104 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/4 | $3,562 | $3,243 | 68% | 77% | +$1,121 | -$23,847 | 496.8% | $-23,541 (vs do-nothing $-20,552) |
| $102 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 3/4 | $3,450 | $3,155 | 67% | 76% | +$959 | -$18,875 | 393.2% | $-19,393 (vs do-nothing $-16,404) |
| $103 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/4 | $2,841 | $2,546 | 66% | 75% | +$670 | -$18,095 | 377.0% | $-18,613 (vs do-nothing $-15,624) |
| $101 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 3/4 | $3,750 | $3,455 | 65% | 74% | +$942 | -$19,085 | 397.6% | $-19,603 (vs do-nothing $-16,614) |
| $99 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.44 | 1/4 | $3,660 | $3,414 | 64% | 78% | +$1,807 | -$6,693 | 139.4% | $-8,858 (vs do-nothing $-5,869) |
| $102 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 3/4 | $3,066 | $2,771 | 64% | 74% | +$705 | -$18,275 | 380.7% | $-18,793 (vs do-nothing $-15,804) |
| $101 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 3/4 | $3,262 | $2,967 | 63% | 74% | +$876 | -$18,470 | 384.8% | $-18,988 (vs do-nothing $-15,999) |
| $100 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 3/4 | $4,100 | $3,805 | 62% | 73% | +$943 | -$19,280 | 401.7% | $-19,798 (vs do-nothing $-16,809) |
| $98.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 1/4 | $3,930 | $3,684 | 61% | 76% | +$1,812 | -$6,725 | 140.1% | $-8,890 (vs do-nothing $-5,901) |
| $100 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/4 | $3,488 | $3,192 | 60% | 73% | +$889 | -$18,650 | 388.5% | $-19,168 (vs do-nothing $-16,179) |
| $99 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/4 | $3,000 | $2,729 | 59% | 71% | +$641 | -$12,974 | 270.3% | $-14,315 (vs do-nothing $-11,326) |
| $98 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 1/4 | $4,230 | $3,984 | 58% | 75% | +$1,822 | -$6,755 | 140.7% | $-8,920 (vs do-nothing $-5,931) |
| $99 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/4 | $3,712 | $3,417 | 58% | 72% | +$888 | -$18,830 | 392.3% | $-19,348 (vs do-nothing $-16,359) |
| $98.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 2/4 | $3,133 | $2,863 | 58% | 71% | +$638 | -$13,034 | 271.5% | $-14,375 (vs do-nothing $-11,386) |
| $98.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/4 | $3,825 | $3,530 | 57% | 72% | +$883 | -$18,920 | 394.2% | $-19,438 (vs do-nothing $-16,449) |
| $98 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/4 | $3,938 | $3,642 | 56% | 71% | +$873 | -$19,010 | 396.0% | $-19,528 (vs do-nothing $-16,539) |
| $98 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/4 | $3,333 | $3,063 | 56% | 70% | +$696 | -$13,074 | 272.4% | $-14,415 (vs do-nothing $-11,426) |
| $97.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 1/4 | $4,575 | $4,329 | 55% | 73% | +$1,849 | -$6,782 | 141.3% | $-8,947 (vs do-nothing $-5,958) |
| $97.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/4 | $4,078 | $3,783 | 55% | 70% | +$888 | -$19,085 | 397.6% | $-19,603 (vs do-nothing $-16,614) |
| $97.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 2/4 | $3,400 | $3,129 | 55% | 69% | +$615 | -$13,154 | 274.0% | $-14,495 (vs do-nothing $-11,506) |
| $97 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 2/4 | $2,812 | $2,542 | 54% | 70% | +$600 | -$12,774 | 266.1% | $-14,115 (vs do-nothing $-11,126) |
| $97 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/4 | $3,600 | $3,329 | 53% | 69% | +$661 | -$13,194 | 274.9% | $-14,535 (vs do-nothing $-11,546) |
| $96.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 2/4 | $2,888 | $2,617 | 53% | 69% | +$586 | -$12,834 | 267.4% | $-14,175 (vs do-nothing $-11,186) |
| $97 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 1/4 | $4,725 | $4,479 | 52% | 72% | +$1,653 | -$6,822 | 142.1% | $-8,987 (vs do-nothing $-5,998) |
| $96 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 2/4 | $2,962 | $2,692 | 52% | 69% | +$570 | -$12,894 | 268.6% | $-14,235 (vs do-nothing $-11,246) |
| $96.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/4 | $3,800 | $3,529 | 52% | 68% | +$701 | -$13,234 | 275.7% | $-14,575 (vs do-nothing $-11,586) |
| $96 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 2/4 | $3,833 | $3,563 | 50% | 67% | +$568 | -$13,324 | 277.6% | $-14,665 (vs do-nothing $-11,676) |
| $95 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 2/4 | $3,169 | $2,898 | 49% | 68% | +$587 | -$12,984 | 270.5% | $-14,325 (vs do-nothing $-11,336) |
| $96.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 1/4 | $5,175 | $4,929 | 49% | 69% | +$1,414 | -$6,842 | 142.5% | $-9,007 (vs do-nothing $-6,018) |
| $95 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 2/4 | $4,233 | $3,963 | 47% | 66% | +$615 | -$13,404 | 279.2% | $-14,745 (vs do-nothing $-11,756) |
| $96 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 1/4 | $5,475 | $5,229 | 46% | 68% | +$1,323 | -$6,872 | 143.2% | $-9,037 (vs do-nothing $-6,048) |
| $95 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 1/4 | $6,375 | $6,129 | 40% | 65% | +$1,360 | -$6,912 | 144.0% | $-9,077 (vs do-nothing $-6,088) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.