4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $168.27 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,625/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $299/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,786 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 4 × $112 | 90% | $3,060 | $1,484 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 4 × $111 | 78% | $3,013 | $194 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $125 | 17 Jul | 2d | 23.8% | 99% | 2% | $24 | $360 | -$2,700 | $17,285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $125 23.8% OTM over spot $100.99 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $24 credit for the 2d cycle → $360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $125) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $125.06) 99% EV / mo +$289 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-119 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,382 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $146 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $125 is $43 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $125.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $125): -$17,285 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,957 (+$12,829 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,004, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,152, position total $-18,520 (+$11,266 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $113 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.9% | 92% | 17% | $135 | $2,025 | -$1,035 | $16,447 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $113 11.9% OTM over spot $100.99 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.51 mid) = $135 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $113.50) 93% EV / mo +$1,214 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.9] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,583 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$769 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $133 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.26/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $3.06–$6.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 204 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $116 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $113 is $55 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $113.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $113): -$16,447 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $160): -$820 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,939 (+$12,847 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,986, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,597, position total $-20,958 (+$8,828 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $112 | 17 Jul | 2d | 10.9% | 90% | 9% | $204 | $3,060 | — | $22,305 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 10.9% OTM over spot $100.99 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.55 mid) = $204 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $112.56) 91% EV / mo +$1,679 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.2] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~10.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,892 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$986 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $132 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.21/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $3.14–$5.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $115 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $56 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $112.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$22,305 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,977 (+$7,809 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,024, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,172, position total $-23,540 (+$6,246 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $108 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.9% | 81% | 39% | $440 | $6,600 | +$3,540 | $23,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 6.9% OTM over spot $100.99 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.14 mid) = $440 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $109.14) 84% EV / mo +$3,001 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.2-4.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~19.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,945 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$686 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $131 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.98/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $3.16–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 658 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $111 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $60 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $109.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$23,669 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,341 (+$6,445 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,388, the opportunity cost of earning $6,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,536, position total $-24,904 (+$4,882 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $130 | 24 Jul | 9d | 28.7% | 96% | 8% | $96 | $320 | -$2,693 | $15,213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $130 28.7% OTM over spot $100.99 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $96 credit for the 9d cycle → $320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $130.32) 96% EV / mo +$156 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.1] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-505 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,477 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.09/sh now → $6.43 mid-life (likely $5.14–$8.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 222 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $134 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $130 is $38 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $130.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $130): -$15,213 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,885 (+$14,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,932, the opportunity cost of earning $320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,080, position total $-16,448 (+$13,338 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $120 | 24 Jul | 9d | 18.8% | 90% | 20% | $336 | $1,120 | -$1,893 | $18,973 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 18.8% OTM over spot $100.99 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.94 mid) = $336 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $120.94) 91% EV / mo +$544 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-6.1] median · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,609 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,939 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.04/sh now → $5.69 mid-life (likely $5.08–$8.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 605 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $124 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $48 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $120.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$18,973 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,645 (+$11,141 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,692, the opportunity cost of earning $1,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,840, position total $-20,208 (+$9,578 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $115 | 24 Jul | 9d | 13.9% | 84% | 32% | $588 | $1,960 | -$1,053 | $20,721 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $115 13.9% OTM over spot $100.99 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.55 mid) = $588 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $116.56) 87% EV / mo +$839 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.8-4.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,938 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,545 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $125 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.54/sh now → $5.33 mid-life (likely $5.25–$8.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 878 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $119 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $53 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $116.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$20,721 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,393 (+$9,393 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,440, the opportunity cost of earning $1,960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,588, position total $-21,956 (+$7,830 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $111 | 24 Jul | 9d | 9.9% | 78% | 42% | $904 | $3,013 | — | $22,005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $111 9.9% OTM over spot $100.99 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.33 mid) = $904 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,013/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $111) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $113.33) 82% EV / mo +$1,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.8-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,906 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,117 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $124 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.14/sh now → $5.05 mid-life (likely $5.67–$8.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,255 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $115 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $111 is $57 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $113.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $111): -$22,005 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,677 (+$8,109 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,724, the opportunity cost of earning $3,013/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,872, position total $-23,240 (+$6,546 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $103 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.0% | 58% | 88% | $1,840 | $6,133 | +$3,120 | $24,269 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $103 2.0% OTM over spot $100.99 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.88 mid) = $1,840 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $107.88) 71% EV / mo +$1,152 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [1.9-6.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~26.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,489 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$33 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $126 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.39/sh now → $4.52 mid-life (likely $6.22–$8.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,184 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $107 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $65 below CC-SS $168.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.15/sh (~25% of the $4.60 collected) or spot ≥ $107.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $124.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $168.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,786 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,114 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $103): -$24,269 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,941 (+$5,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,953 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,988, the opportunity cost of earning $6,133/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,136, position total $-25,504 (+$4,282 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.119 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,114 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,953
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $112 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 4/4 | $3,060 | $2,761 | 90% | 91% | +$1,679 | -$22,305 | 464.7% | $-21,977 (vs do-nothing $-19,024) |
| $111 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 4/4 | $3,720 | $3,421 | 88% | 90% | +$1,960 | -$22,661 | 472.1% | $-22,333 (vs do-nothing $-19,380) |
| $110 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 3/4 | $3,420 | $3,134 | 86% | 88% | +$1,740 | -$17,254 | 359.5% | $-17,746 (vs do-nothing $-14,793) |
| $109 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 3/4 | $4,050 | $3,764 | 84% | 86% | +$1,917 | -$17,512 | 364.8% | $-18,004 (vs do-nothing $-15,051) |
| $108 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 2/4 | $3,300 | $3,027 | 81% | 84% | +$1,501 | -$11,835 | 246.6% | $-13,147 (vs do-nothing $-10,194) |
| $107 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.31 | 2/4 | $3,930 | $3,657 | 78% | 82% | +$1,664 | -$11,993 | 249.8% | $-13,305 (vs do-nothing $-10,352) |
| $111 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 4/4 | $3,013 | $2,714 | 78% | 82% | +$1,119 | -$22,005 | 458.4% | $-21,677 (vs do-nothing $-18,724) |
| $110 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.49 | 4/4 | $3,320 | $3,021 | 76% | 81% | +$1,166 | -$22,313 | 464.9% | $-21,985 (vs do-nothing $-19,032) |
| $106 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 2/4 | $4,650 | $4,377 | 74% | 80% | +$1,810 | -$12,145 | 253.0% | $-13,457 (vs do-nothing $-10,504) |
| $109 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 4/4 | $3,693 | $3,394 | 74% | 80% | +$1,250 | -$22,601 | 470.9% | $-22,273 (vs do-nothing $-19,320) |
| $108 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/4 | $3,000 | $2,714 | 71% | 78% | +$924 | -$17,182 | 358.0% | $-17,674 (vs do-nothing $-14,721) |
| $110 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/4 | $3,038 | $2,738 | 71% | 77% | +$622 | -$21,689 | 451.9% | $-21,361 (vs do-nothing $-18,408) |
| $105 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 2/4 | $5,490 | $5,217 | 70% | 78% | +$1,953 | -$12,289 | 256.0% | $-13,601 (vs do-nothing $-10,648) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $109 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/4 | $3,225 | $2,926 | 69% | 76% | +$599 | -$21,989 | 458.1% | $-21,661 (vs do-nothing $-18,708) |
| $107 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/4 | $3,150 | $2,864 | 69% | 77% | +$804 | -$17,437 | 363.3% | $-17,929 (vs do-nothing $-14,976) |
| $108 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/4 | $3,562 | $3,263 | 67% | 75% | +$710 | -$22,209 | 462.7% | $-21,881 (vs do-nothing $-18,928) |
| $106 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 3/4 | $3,500 | $3,214 | 66% | 75% | +$854 | -$17,632 | 367.3% | $-18,124 (vs do-nothing $-15,171) |
| $104 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.14 | 1/4 | $3,210 | $2,950 | 66% | 75% | +$1,023 | -$6,213 | 129.4% | $-8,346 (vs do-nothing $-5,393) |
| $107 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 4/4 | $3,712 | $3,413 | 65% | 74% | +$618 | -$22,529 | 469.4% | $-22,201 (vs do-nothing $-19,248) |
| $105 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 3/4 | $3,850 | $3,564 | 64% | 74% | +$874 | -$17,827 | 371.4% | $-18,319 (vs do-nothing $-15,366) |
| $106 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/4 | $3,009 | $2,723 | 64% | 73% | +$494 | -$17,077 | 355.8% | $-17,569 (vs do-nothing $-14,616) |
| $105 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/4 | $3,375 | $3,089 | 62% | 73% | +$653 | -$17,182 | 358.0% | $-17,674 (vs do-nothing $-14,721) |
| $103 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.49 | 1/4 | $3,735 | $3,475 | 62% | 73% | +$1,051 | -$6,278 | 130.8% | $-8,411 (vs do-nothing $-5,458) |
| $104 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 3/4 | $4,150 | $3,864 | 61% | 72% | +$811 | -$18,037 | 375.8% | $-18,529 (vs do-nothing $-15,576) |
| $104 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/4 | $3,459 | $3,173 | 60% | 70% | +$27 | -$17,437 | 363.3% | $-17,929 (vs do-nothing $-14,976) |
| $103 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/4 | $3,067 | $2,794 | 58% | 71% | +$576 | -$12,135 | 252.8% | $-13,447 (vs do-nothing $-10,494) |
| $103 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/4 | $3,712 | $3,427 | 58% | 69% | +$49 | -$17,602 | 366.7% | $-18,094 (vs do-nothing $-15,141) |
| $102 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.91 | 1/4 | $4,365 | $4,105 | 57% | 71% | +$1,098 | -$6,336 | 132.0% | $-8,469 (vs do-nothing $-5,516) |
| $102 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/4 | $3,966 | $3,680 | 56% | 68% | +$60 | -$17,767 | 370.1% | $-18,259 (vs do-nothing $-15,306) |
| $102 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/4 | $3,433 | $3,161 | 56% | 70% | +$655 | -$12,225 | 254.7% | $-13,537 (vs do-nothing $-10,584) |
| $101 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 2/4 | $2,812 | $2,540 | 54% | 68% | +$39 | -$11,955 | 249.1% | $-13,267 (vs do-nothing $-10,314) |
| $101 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 2/4 | $3,667 | $3,394 | 53% | 67% | $-34 | -$12,355 | 257.4% | $-13,667 (vs do-nothing $-10,714) |
| $100 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 2/4 | $2,962 | $2,690 | 52% | 67% | +$11 | -$12,075 | 251.6% | $-13,387 (vs do-nothing $-10,434) |
| $101 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 1/4 | $4,950 | $4,690 | 52% | 68% | +$1,011 | -$6,397 | 133.3% | $-8,530 (vs do-nothing $-5,577) |
| $100 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 2/4 | $4,067 | $3,794 | 51% | 65% | +$42 | -$12,435 | 259.1% | $-13,747 (vs do-nothing $-10,794) |
| $99 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 2/4 | $3,131 | $2,858 | 51% | 66% | $-6 | -$12,185 | 253.8% | $-13,497 (vs do-nothing $-10,544) |
| $99 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 2/4 | $4,400 | $4,127 | 48% | 65% | +$32 | -$12,535 | 261.1% | $-13,847 (vs do-nothing $-10,894) |
| $100 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 1/4 | $5,775 | $5,515 | 46% | 66% | +$1,069 | -$6,442 | 134.2% | $-8,575 (vs do-nothing $-5,622) |
| $99 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 1/4 | $6,675 | $6,415 | 41% | 64% | +$1,107 | -$6,482 | 135.0% | $-8,615 (vs do-nothing $-5,662) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.