4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.70 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,560/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $292/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,944 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 4 × $106 | 78% | $2,970 | $602 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $127 | 24 Jul | 8d | 30.9% | 98% | 5% | $84 | $315 | -$2,655 | $15,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $127 30.9% OTM over spot $97.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $84 credit for the 8d cycle → $315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $127) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $127.30) 98% EV / mo +$232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-5.3] median · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-324 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,287 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $134 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.38/sh now → $5.93 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $127 is $40 below CC-SS $166.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $127.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,944 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,226 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $127): -$15,797 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,514 (+$15,430 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,354 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,160, the opportunity cost of earning $315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,384, position total $-17,004 (+$13,940 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $114 | 24 Jul | 8d | 17.5% | 91% | 19% | $312 | $1,170 | -$1,800 | $20,769 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $114 17.5% OTM over spot $97.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.84 mid) = $312 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,170/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $114.84) 91% EV / mo +$627 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.3-6.4] median · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,226 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,672 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.01/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $4.27–$7.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $117 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $53 below CC-SS $166.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $114.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,944 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,226 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$20,769 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,486 (+$10,458 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,354 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,132, the opportunity cost of earning $1,170/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,356, position total $-21,976 (+$8,968 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $110 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.4% | 85% | 30% | $500 | $1,875 | -$1,095 | $22,181 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $110 13.4% OTM over spot $97.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.31 mid) = $500 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $111.31) 87% EV / mo +$877 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [1.9-6.0] median · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,338 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,372 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.61/sh now → $4.68 mid-life (likely $4.31–$7.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 629 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $113 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $57 below CC-SS $166.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $111.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,944 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,226 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$22,181 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,898 (+$9,046 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,354 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,544, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,768, position total $-23,388 (+$7,556 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $106 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.3% | 78% | 36% | $792 | $2,970 | — | $23,489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $106 9.3% OTM over spot $97.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.05 mid) = $792 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $108.06) 82% EV / mo +$1,155 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~10.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,759 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$970 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.23/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $4.74–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,075 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $109 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $61 below CC-SS $166.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $108.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,944 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,226 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $106): -$23,489 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,206 (+$7,738 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,354 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,852, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,076, position total $-24,696 (+$6,248 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $99 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.1% | 59% | 86% | $1,580 | $5,925 | +$2,955 | $25,501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 2.1% OTM over spot $97.00 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.20 mid) = $1,580 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,925/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $103.20) 71% EV / mo +$1,163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~27.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,639 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $118 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.95 mid-life (likely $5.30–$7.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,050 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $102 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $68 below CC-SS $166.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.99/sh (~25% of the $3.95 collected) or spot ≥ $103.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,944 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,226 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$25,501 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,218 (+$5,726 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,354 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,864, the opportunity cost of earning $5,925/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,088, position total $-26,708 (+$4,236 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.120 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,226 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,354
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $106 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 4/4 | $2,970 | $2,678 | 78% | 82% | +$1,155 | -$23,489 | 489.3% | $-23,206 (vs do-nothing $-20,852) |
| $105 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 4/4 | $3,330 | $3,038 | 76% | 81% | +$1,231 | -$23,793 | 495.7% | $-23,510 (vs do-nothing $-21,156) |
| $104 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.49 | 3/4 | $2,801 | $2,531 | 73% | 79% | +$984 | -$18,063 | 376.3% | $-18,440 (vs do-nothing $-16,086) |
| $106 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 4/4 | $2,920 | $2,628 | 72% | 78% | +$778 | -$22,821 | 475.4% | $-22,538 (vs do-nothing $-20,184) |
| $103 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 3/4 | $3,116 | $2,846 | 71% | 78% | +$1,024 | -$18,279 | 380.8% | $-18,656 (vs do-nothing $-16,302) |
| $105 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/4 | $3,080 | $2,788 | 70% | 77% | +$729 | -$23,141 | 482.1% | $-22,858 (vs do-nothing $-20,504) |
| $104 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/4 | $3,480 | $3,187 | 68% | 76% | +$902 | -$23,341 | 486.3% | $-23,058 (vs do-nothing $-20,704) |
| $102 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/4 | $3,375 | $3,104 | 68% | 76% | +$972 | -$18,510 | 385.6% | $-18,887 (vs do-nothing $-16,533) |
| $103 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/4 | $3,600 | $3,308 | 66% | 75% | +$777 | -$23,681 | 493.3% | $-23,398 (vs do-nothing $-21,044) |
| $101 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,330 | 65% | 75% | +$849 | -$18,750 | 390.6% | $-19,127 (vs do-nothing $-16,773) |
| $102 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/4 | $2,910 | $2,639 | 64% | 74% | +$595 | -$17,955 | 374.1% | $-18,332 (vs do-nothing $-15,978) |
| $101 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/4 | $3,090 | $2,820 | 62% | 73% | +$561 | -$18,165 | 378.4% | $-18,542 (vs do-nothing $-16,188) |
| $100 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/4 | $4,162 | $3,892 | 62% | 73% | +$1,022 | -$18,900 | 393.8% | $-19,277 (vs do-nothing $-16,923) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/4 | $3,360 | $3,090 | 60% | 72% | +$602 | -$18,330 | 381.9% | $-18,707 (vs do-nothing $-16,353) |
| $99 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/4 | $2,962 | $2,714 | 59% | 71% | +$581 | -$12,750 | 265.6% | $-13,786 (vs do-nothing $-11,432) |
| $99 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/4 | $3,600 | $3,330 | 58% | 71% | +$596 | -$18,510 | 385.6% | $-18,887 (vs do-nothing $-16,533) |
| $98.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/4 | $3,225 | $2,976 | 57% | 71% | +$689 | -$12,780 | 266.3% | $-13,816 (vs do-nothing $-11,462) |
| $98.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 3/4 | $3,750 | $3,480 | 57% | 70% | +$617 | -$18,585 | 387.2% | $-18,962 (vs do-nothing $-16,608) |
| $98 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/4 | $3,870 | $3,600 | 56% | 70% | +$603 | -$18,675 | 389.1% | $-19,052 (vs do-nothing $-16,698) |
| $98 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/4 | $3,488 | $3,239 | 56% | 70% | +$789 | -$12,810 | 266.9% | $-13,846 (vs do-nothing $-11,492) |
| $97.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 3/4 | $4,020 | $3,750 | 55% | 69% | +$616 | -$18,750 | 390.6% | $-19,127 (vs do-nothing $-16,773) |
| $97.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/4 | $3,600 | $3,352 | 54% | 69% | +$732 | -$12,880 | 268.3% | $-13,916 (vs do-nothing $-11,562) |
| $97 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 2/4 | $2,780 | $2,532 | 54% | 69% | +$416 | -$12,550 | 261.5% | $-13,586 (vs do-nothing $-11,232) |
| $97 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 2/4 | $3,638 | $3,389 | 52% | 68% | +$591 | -$12,970 | 270.2% | $-14,006 (vs do-nothing $-11,652) |
| $96.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 2/4 | $2,880 | $2,632 | 52% | 68% | +$418 | -$12,600 | 262.5% | $-13,636 (vs do-nothing $-11,282) |
| $96 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 2/4 | $2,980 | $2,732 | 51% | 68% | +$418 | -$12,650 | 263.5% | $-13,686 (vs do-nothing $-11,332) |
| $96.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 2/4 | $3,938 | $3,689 | 51% | 68% | +$706 | -$12,990 | 270.6% | $-14,026 (vs do-nothing $-11,672) |
| $96 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 2/4 | $4,125 | $3,876 | 49% | 67% | +$700 | -$13,040 | 271.7% | $-14,076 (vs do-nothing $-11,722) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.