4 contracts (400 sh) | BE SS: $161.00 | CC-SS: $166.02 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $56,800 | (ND $12.00 + SW $130) x 400 |
| Normal income ref | $5,136/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $321/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,330 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 4 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 4 × $104 | 77% | $2,805 | $305 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $120 | 24 Jul | 8d | 25.7% | 97% | 6% | $90 | $338 | -$2,468 | $13,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $120 25.7% OTM over spot $95.48 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $90 credit for the 8d cycle → $338/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $120.38) 97% EV / mo +$259 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-6.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-348 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,504 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $135 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.51/sh now → $5.31 mid-life (likely $3.77–$6.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 145 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $123 (overshoots $2.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $46 below CC-SS $166.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $120.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,628 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $120): -$13,715 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $160): -$595 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,011 (+$17,319 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,931, the opportunity cost of earning $338/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,623, position total $-17,907 (+$13,423 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 4 × $112 | 24 Jul | 8d | 17.3% | 91% | 19% | $276 | $1,035 | -$1,770 | $21,330 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $112 17.3% OTM over spot $95.48 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid) = $276 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,035/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $112.77) 92% EV / mo +$527 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.5-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,402 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,624 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $127 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.71/sh now → $4.75 mid-life (likely $4.27–$6.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $115 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $54 below CC-SS $166.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $112.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,628 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $112): -$21,330 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,032 (+$10,298 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,952, the opportunity cost of earning $1,035/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,208, position total $-22,499 (+$8,831 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $108 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.1% | 85% | 31% | $456 | $1,710 | -$1,095 | $22,750 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $108 13.1% OTM over spot $95.48 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.23 mid) = $456 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $109.23) 87% EV / mo +$682 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.5-5.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,248 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,336 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $123 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.33/sh now → $4.48 mid-life (likely $4.03–$6.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 702 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $111 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $58 below CC-SS $166.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $109.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,628 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $108): -$22,750 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,452 (+$8,878 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,372, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,628, position total $-23,919 (+$7,411 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $104 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 77% | 40% | $748 | $2,805 | — | $24,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $104 8.9% OTM over spot $95.48 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.98 mid) = $748 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,805/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $105.98) 81% EV / mo +$859 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.7-5.6] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$938 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $124 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.96/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $4.66–$7.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,186 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $107 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $62 below CC-SS $166.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.87 collected) or spot ≥ $105.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,628 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $104): -$24,058 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,760 (+$7,570 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,680, the opportunity cost of earning $2,805/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,936, position total $-25,227 (+$6,103 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $98.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.2% | 62% | 79% | $1,380 | $5,175 | +$2,370 | $25,626 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $98.50 3.2% OTM over spot $95.48 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.65 mid) = $1,380 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $102.15) 73% EV / mo +$966 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.3-5.8] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~23.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,194 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$166 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $123 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.87 mid-life (likely $5.07–$7.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,913 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $101 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98.50 is $68 below CC-SS $166.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $102.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $166.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,628 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $98.50): -$25,626 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,328 (+$6,002 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,248, the opportunity cost of earning $5,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $135.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,504, position total $-26,795 (+$4,535 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.121 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,628 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,080
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 4/4 | $2,805 | $2,484 | 77% | 81% | +$859 | -$24,058 | 501.2% | $-23,760 (vs do-nothing $-21,680) |
| $103 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.12 | 4/4 | $3,180 | $2,859 | 75% | 80% | +$928 | -$24,358 | 507.5% | $-24,060 (vs do-nothing $-21,980) |
| $105 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/4 | $2,600 | $2,279 | 73% | 79% | +$637 | -$23,106 | 481.4% | $-22,808 (vs do-nothing $-20,728) |
| $102 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 3/4 | $2,677 | $2,371 | 72% | 78% | +$726 | -$18,491 | 385.2% | $-18,787 (vs do-nothing $-16,707) |
| $104 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/4 | $2,720 | $2,399 | 72% | 78% | +$558 | -$23,446 | 488.5% | $-23,148 (vs do-nothing $-21,068) |
| $103 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/4 | $3,040 | $2,719 | 70% | 77% | +$782 | -$23,686 | 493.5% | $-23,388 (vs do-nothing $-21,308) |
| $101 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 3/4 | $2,970 | $2,663 | 69% | 77% | +$723 | -$18,713 | 389.8% | $-19,009 (vs do-nothing $-16,929) |
| $102 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/4 | $3,200 | $2,879 | 68% | 76% | +$711 | -$24,006 | 500.1% | $-23,708 (vs do-nothing $-21,628) |
| $103 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 4/4 | $2,755 | $2,434 | 68% | 76% | +$615 | -$23,186 | 483.0% | $-22,888 (vs do-nothing $-20,808) |
| $100 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.99 | 3/4 | $3,364 | $3,057 | 67% | 75% | +$783 | -$18,908 | 393.9% | $-19,204 (vs do-nothing $-17,124) |
| $102 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 4/4 | $2,891 | $2,570 | 66% | 75% | +$581 | -$23,486 | 489.3% | $-23,188 (vs do-nothing $-21,108) |
| $101 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 3/4 | $2,610 | $2,303 | 66% | 75% | +$555 | -$18,200 | 379.2% | $-18,496 (vs do-nothing $-16,416) |
| $101 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 4/4 | $3,082 | $2,761 | 65% | 74% | +$590 | -$23,746 | 494.7% | $-23,448 (vs do-nothing $-21,368) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/4 | $2,850 | $2,543 | 64% | 74% | +$593 | -$18,380 | 382.9% | $-18,676 (vs do-nothing $-16,596) |
| $99 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/4 | $3,488 | $3,181 | 64% | 73% | +$533 | -$19,175 | 399.5% | $-19,471 (vs do-nothing $-17,391) |
| $100 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.05 | 4/4 | $3,300 | $2,979 | 63% | 73% | +$616 | -$23,986 | 499.7% | $-23,688 (vs do-nothing $-21,608) |
| $98.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/4 | $2,588 | $2,295 | 62% | 73% | +$483 | -$12,813 | 266.9% | $-13,704 (vs do-nothing $-11,624) |
| $99 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/4 | $3,060 | $2,753 | 62% | 73% | +$586 | -$18,575 | 387.0% | $-18,871 (vs do-nothing $-16,791) |
| $99 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 3/4 | $2,618 | $2,312 | 61% | 72% | +$452 | -$18,185 | 378.8% | $-18,481 (vs do-nothing $-16,401) |
| $98 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/4 | $2,588 | $2,295 | 61% | 71% | +$341 | -$12,913 | 269.0% | $-13,804 (vs do-nothing $-11,724) |
| $98.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/4 | $3,180 | $2,873 | 60% | 72% | +$592 | -$18,665 | 388.8% | $-18,961 (vs do-nothing $-16,881) |
| $98 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/4 | $3,330 | $3,023 | 59% | 72% | +$623 | -$18,740 | 390.4% | $-19,036 (vs do-nothing $-16,956) |
| $98 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 3/4 | $2,782 | $2,475 | 59% | 71% | +$453 | -$18,365 | 382.6% | $-18,661 (vs do-nothing $-16,581) |
| $97.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/4 | $2,738 | $2,445 | 59% | 71% | +$341 | -$12,973 | 270.3% | $-13,864 (vs do-nothing $-11,784) |
| $97.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/4 | $3,420 | $3,113 | 58% | 71% | +$591 | -$18,845 | 392.6% | $-19,141 (vs do-nothing $-17,061) |
| $97 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/4 | $2,925 | $2,632 | 57% | 70% | +$371 | -$13,023 | 271.3% | $-13,914 (vs do-nothing $-11,834) |
| $97 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 3/4 | $2,966 | $2,659 | 57% | 70% | +$407 | -$18,530 | 386.0% | $-18,826 (vs do-nothing $-16,746) |
| $97 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 3/4 | $3,570 | $3,263 | 57% | 70% | +$615 | -$18,920 | 394.2% | $-19,216 (vs do-nothing $-17,136) |
| $96.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/4 | $3,660 | $3,353 | 56% | 70% | +$574 | -$19,025 | 396.3% | $-19,321 (vs do-nothing $-17,241) |
| $96.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 2/4 | $3,075 | $2,782 | 56% | 69% | +$357 | -$13,083 | 272.6% | $-13,974 (vs do-nothing $-11,894) |
| $96 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.70 | 3/4 | $3,150 | $2,843 | 55% | 69% | +$405 | -$18,695 | 389.5% | $-18,991 (vs do-nothing $-16,911) |
| $96 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/4 | $3,840 | $3,533 | 55% | 69% | +$619 | -$19,085 | 397.6% | $-19,381 (vs do-nothing $-17,301) |
| $96 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/4 | $3,225 | $2,932 | 54% | 68% | +$335 | -$13,143 | 273.8% | $-14,034 (vs do-nothing $-11,954) |
| $95 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.25 | 3/4 | $3,375 | $3,068 | 53% | 69% | +$433 | -$18,830 | 392.3% | $-19,126 (vs do-nothing $-17,046) |
| $95 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/4 | $2,760 | $2,467 | 52% | 68% | +$425 | -$12,823 | 267.1% | $-13,714 (vs do-nothing $-11,634) |
| $94 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.65 | 3/4 | $3,539 | $3,232 | 51% | 68% | +$390 | -$19,010 | 396.0% | $-19,306 (vs do-nothing $-17,226) |
| $95 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/4 | $3,600 | $3,307 | 51% | 67% | +$342 | -$13,243 | 275.9% | $-14,134 (vs do-nothing $-12,054) |
| $94 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 2/4 | $2,940 | $2,647 | 50% | 67% | +$310 | -$12,933 | 269.4% | $-13,824 (vs do-nothing $-11,744) |
| $94 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 2/4 | $3,938 | $3,645 | 48% | 65% | +$280 | -$13,353 | 278.2% | $-14,244 (vs do-nothing $-12,164) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.