FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC670 @ $752.99

BE SS: $792.36 | CC-SS: $821.05 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC670 @ $752.99 UNDERWATER $39.37 (5.0% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $792.36 | CC-SS: $821.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $670 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $380.957/sh)

SP: $800 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $283.567/sh)

HP: $420 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $17.357/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$49,472	(ND $114.72 + SW $380) x 100
Normal income ref	$10,927/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$551/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-6,549	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,463/mo

HEDGE COVER
$551/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,927/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $11,472

ML VELOCITY
4.5 mo to earn back $49,472

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $821.05 (probe: $820C 13d) still earns $6,358/mo (58% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B -3 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,243.85 (+65%) · daily UBB $1,063.67 · 1-wk expected move ±$111 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $821.05 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 1 × $835 21 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $835)

70%

Touch odds

66%

Per cycle

$3,670

Income / mo

$5,005

🎯 Recommended · sell 1 × $825 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $825)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$6,750

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $33.83/sh now → $23.93 mid-life (likely $25.67–$43.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 784 simulated challenges: the $825 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $852 (overshoots $26.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$825	5 Aug 2026	4d left	+$7.50/sh	+$750 cycle +$1,650 [+$480…+$834] · 96% credit	65% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$907	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$12.96/sh	+$1,296 cycle +$2,196 [+$313…+$1,281] · 82% credit	75% surv 70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$962	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.35/sh	+$35 cycle +$935 [-$1,227…-$31] · 24% credit	81% surv 78%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$842	5 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.05/sh	+$5 cycle +$905 [-$544…-$32] · 21% credit	69% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,017	21 Aug 2026	20d left	-$8.25/sh	-$825 cycle +$75 [-$2,300…-$924] · 2% credit	85% surv 84%
budget: banked $900 debit $825 (92% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,352/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $915 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $915)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$675

Income / mo

$2,531

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $59.19/sh now → $41.88 mid-life (likely $36.23–$62.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $915 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $946 (overshoots $30.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$962	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.05/sh	+$605 cycle +$1,280 [-$277…+$1,298] · 67% credit	71% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$972	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.82/sh	+$182 cycle +$857 [-$784…+$839] · 49% credit	72% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$997	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$5.04/sh	-$504 cycle +$171 [-$1,565…+$86] · 27% credit	75% surv 69%
budget: banked $675 debit $504 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$171 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $6,140/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$915	12 Aug 2026	9d left	-$13.58/sh	-$1,358 cycle -$683 [-$2,433…-$736] · 11% credit	61% surv 53%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (99 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 99 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.987 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,718 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,254

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$835	4d	3 Aug 2026	$7.35	1/1	$5,512	$4,962	84%	86%	+$1,916	-$0	0.0%	$904 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$830	4d	3 Aug 2026	$8.15	1/1	$6,112	$5,562	83%	85%	+$2,032	-$0	0.0%	$984 (vs do-nothing $-270)
$825	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.00	1/1	$6,750	$6,199	81%	84%	+$2,129	-$0	0.0%	$1,069 (vs do-nothing $-185)
$840	6d	5 Aug 2026	$11.05	1/1	$5,525	$4,974	81%	84%	+$1,259	-$0	0.0%	$1,274 (vs do-nothing +$20)
$820	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.70	1/1	$7,275	$6,724	80%	83%	+$2,053	-$0	0.0%	$1,034 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$850	8d	7 Aug 2026	$15.35	1/1	$5,756	$5,205	80%	83%	+$1,446	-$0	0.0%	$1,704 (vs do-nothing +$450)
$835	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.05	1/1	$6,025	$5,474	80%	83%	+$1,346	-$0	0.0%	$1,374 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$845	8d	7 Aug 2026	$16.25	1/1	$6,094	$5,543	79%	82%	+$1,444	-$0	0.0%	$1,794 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$815	4d	3 Aug 2026	$10.90	1/1	$8,175	$7,624	78%	82%	+$2,286	-$0	0.0%	$654 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$830	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	1/1	$6,425	$5,874	78%	82%	+$1,297	-$0	0.0%	$1,454 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$840	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.15	1/1	$6,431	$5,880	77%	81%	+$1,419	-$0	0.0%	$1,884 (vs do-nothing +$630)
$825	6d	5 Aug 2026	$12.85	1/1	$6,425	$5,874	77%	81%	+$812	-$0	0.0%	$1,454 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$810	4d	3 Aug 2026	$11.80	1/1	$8,850	$8,299	77%	81%	+$2,223	-$0	0.0%	$244 (vs do-nothing $-1,010)

Show 86 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 86.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$835	8d	7 Aug 2026	$17.60	1/1	$6,600	$6,049	76%	80%	+$1,201	-$0	0.0%	$1,929 (vs do-nothing +$675)
$820	6d	5 Aug 2026	$14.60	1/1	$7,300	$6,749	76%	80%	+$1,164	-$0	0.0%	$1,524 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$830	8d	7 Aug 2026	$18.30	1/1	$6,862	$6,312	75%	79%	+$1,053	-$0	0.0%	$1,999 (vs do-nothing +$745)
$805	4d	3 Aug 2026	$13.00	1/1	$9,750	$9,199	75%	79%	+$2,310	-$305	2.7%	$-136 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$815	6d	5 Aug 2026	$16.10	1/1	$8,050	$7,499	74%	79%	+$1,349	-$0	0.0%	$1,174 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$825	8d	7 Aug 2026	$20.55	1/1	$7,706	$7,155	74%	79%	+$1,460	-$0	0.0%	$2,224 (vs do-nothing +$970)
$800	4d	3 Aug 2026	$14.10	1/1	$10,575	$10,024	73%	78%	+$2,243	-$695	6.1%	$-526 (vs do-nothing $-1,780)
$835	15d	14 Aug 2026	$28.45	1/1	$5,690	$5,139	73%	78%	+$1,030	-$0	0.0%	$3,014 (vs do-nothing +$1,760)
$820	8d	7 Aug 2026	$21.05	1/1	$7,894	$7,343	73%	78%	+$1,184	-$0	0.0%	$2,169 (vs do-nothing +$915)
$830	13d	12 Aug 2026	$25.15	1/1	$5,804	$5,253	73%	78%	+$783	-$0	0.0%	$2,684 (vs do-nothing +$1,430)
$810	6d	5 Aug 2026	$17.25	1/1	$8,625	$8,074	73%	78%	+$1,317	-$0	0.0%	$789 (vs do-nothing $-465)
$830	15d	14 Aug 2026	$28.35	1/1	$5,670	$5,119	72%	78%	+$752	-$0	0.0%	$3,004 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)
$825	13d	12 Aug 2026	$26.45	1/1	$6,104	$5,553	72%	78%	+$781	-$0	0.0%	$2,814 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$815	8d	7 Aug 2026	$23.25	1/1	$8,719	$8,168	71%	77%	+$1,518	-$0	0.0%	$1,889 (vs do-nothing +$635)
$805	6d	5 Aug 2026	$18.55	1/1	$9,275	$8,724	71%	77%	+$1,315	-$0	0.0%	$419 (vs do-nothing $-835)
$795	4d	3 Aug 2026	$15.10	1/1	$11,325	$10,774	71%	77%	+$2,016	-$1,095	9.5%	$-926 (vs do-nothing $-2,180)
$825	15d	14 Aug 2026	$31.00	1/1	$6,200	$5,649	71%	77%	+$1,011	-$0	0.0%	$3,269 (vs do-nothing +$2,015)
$820	13d	12 Aug 2026	$27.55	1/1	$6,358	$5,807	71%	77%	+$718	-$0	0.0%	$2,819 (vs do-nothing +$1,565)
$810	8d	7 Aug 2026	$24.10	1/1	$9,038	$8,487	70%	76%	+$1,317	-$0	0.0%	$1,474 (vs do-nothing +$220)
$820	15d	14 Aug 2026	$31.45	1/1	$6,290	$5,739	70%	76%	+$819	-$0	0.0%	$3,209 (vs do-nothing +$1,955)
$800	6d	5 Aug 2026	$19.90	1/1	$9,950	$9,399	70%	76%	+$1,291	-$115	1.0%	$54 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$815	13d	12 Aug 2026	$29.00	1/1	$6,692	$6,141	69%	76%	+$721	-$0	0.0%	$2,464 (vs do-nothing +$1,210)
$790	4d	3 Aug 2026	$16.75	1/1	$12,562	$12,012	69%	76%	+$2,189	-$1,430	12.5%	$-1,261 (vs do-nothing $-2,515)
$805	8d	7 Aug 2026	$26.15	1/1	$9,806	$9,255	69%	76%	+$1,536	-$0	0.0%	$1,179 (vs do-nothing $-75)
$815	15d	14 Aug 2026	$33.80	1/1	$6,760	$6,209	69%	76%	+$994	-$0	0.0%	$2,944 (vs do-nothing +$1,690)
$810	13d	12 Aug 2026	$30.55	1/1	$7,050	$6,499	68%	75%	+$733	-$0	0.0%	$2,119 (vs do-nothing +$865)
$795	6d	5 Aug 2026	$21.35	1/1	$10,675	$10,124	68%	75%	+$1,269	-$470	4.1%	$-301 (vs do-nothing $-1,555)
$810	15d	14 Aug 2026	$34.40	1/1	$6,880	$6,329	68%	75%	+$806	-$0	0.0%	$2,504 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)
$800	8d	7 Aug 2026	$28.00	1/1	$10,500	$9,949	67%	75%	+$1,650	-$0	0.0%	$864 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$785	4d	3 Aug 2026	$18.15	1/1	$13,612	$13,062	67%	74%	+$2,081	-$1,790	15.6%	$-1,621 (vs do-nothing $-2,875)
$805	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.80	1/1	$7,360	$6,809	67%	74%	+$965	-$0	0.0%	$2,244 (vs do-nothing +$990)
$790	6d	5 Aug 2026	$22.00	1/1	$11,000	$10,449	66%	74%	+$796	-$905	7.9%	$-736 (vs do-nothing $-1,990)
$795	8d	7 Aug 2026	$29.50	1/1	$11,062	$10,512	66%	74%	+$1,602	-$0	0.0%	$514 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$810	22d	21 Aug 2026	$43.40	1/1	$5,918	$5,367	66%	73%	$-140	-$0	0.0%	$3,404 (vs do-nothing +$2,150)
$800	15d	14 Aug 2026	$36.65	1/1	$7,330	$6,779	65%	74%	+$600	-$0	0.0%	$1,729 (vs do-nothing +$475)
$805	22d	21 Aug 2026	$45.00	1/1	$6,136	$5,585	65%	73%	$-150	-$0	0.0%	$3,064 (vs do-nothing +$1,810)
$780	4d	3 Aug 2026	$19.65	1/1	$14,738	$14,187	65%	73%	+$1,953	-$2,140	18.7%	$-1,971 (vs do-nothing $-3,225)
$790	8d	7 Aug 2026	$31.20	1/1	$11,700	$11,149	65%	73%	+$1,597	-$0	0.0%	$184 (vs do-nothing $-1,070)
$785	6d	5 Aug 2026	$23.90	1/1	$11,950	$11,399	64%	73%	+$897	-$1,215	10.6%	$-1,046 (vs do-nothing $-2,300)
$795	15d	14 Aug 2026	$39.95	1/1	$7,990	$7,439	64%	73%	+$911	-$0	0.0%	$1,559 (vs do-nothing +$305)
$800	22d	21 Aug 2026	$47.55	1/1	$6,484	$5,933	64%	72%	$-38	-$0	0.0%	$2,819 (vs do-nothing +$1,565)
$795	22d	21 Aug 2026	$48.40	1/1	$6,600	$6,049	64%	73%	+$640	-$0	0.0%	$2,404 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$790	15d	14 Aug 2026	$41.90	1/1	$8,380	$7,829	63%	72%	+$939	-$0	0.0%	$1,254 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$785	8d	7 Aug 2026	$31.35	1/1	$11,756	$11,205	63%	72%	+$978	-$470	4.1%	$-301 (vs do-nothing $-1,555)
$780	6d	5 Aug 2026	$25.20	1/1	$12,600	$12,049	63%	72%	+$644	-$1,585	13.8%	$-1,416 (vs do-nothing $-2,670)
$790	22d	21 Aug 2026	$50.35	1/1	$6,866	$6,315	63%	72%	+$650	-$0	0.0%	$2,099 (vs do-nothing +$845)
$775	4d	3 Aug 2026	$21.05	1/1	$15,788	$15,237	62%	72%	+$1,651	-$2,500	21.8%	$-2,331 (vs do-nothing $-3,585)
$785	15d	14 Aug 2026	$42.45	1/1	$8,490	$7,939	62%	72%	+$672	-$0	0.0%	$809 (vs do-nothing $-445)
$780	8d	7 Aug 2026	$33.30	1/1	$12,487	$11,937	62%	71%	+$1,001	-$775	6.8%	$-606 (vs do-nothing $-1,860)
$775	6d	5 Aug 2026	$27.15	1/1	$13,575	$13,024	61%	71%	+$662	-$1,890	16.5%	$-1,721 (vs do-nothing $-2,975)
$780	15d	14 Aug 2026	$45.55	1/1	$9,110	$8,559	61%	71%	+$901	-$0	0.0%	$619 (vs do-nothing $-635)
$780	22d	21 Aug 2026	$54.00	1/1	$7,364	$6,813	61%	71%	+$611	-$0	0.0%	$1,464 (vs do-nothing +$210)
$770	4d	3 Aug 2026	$22.75	1/1	$17,062	$16,512	60%	70%	+$1,472	-$2,830	24.7%	$-2,661 (vs do-nothing $-3,915)
$775	8d	7 Aug 2026	$35.10	1/1	$13,162	$12,612	60%	71%	+$933	-$1,095	9.5%	$-926 (vs do-nothing $-2,180)
$770	6d	5 Aug 2026	$28.80	1/1	$14,400	$13,849	59%	70%	+$474	-$2,225	19.4%	$-2,056 (vs do-nothing $-3,310)
$770	8d	7 Aug 2026	$37.45	1/1	$14,044	$13,493	59%	70%	+$1,038	-$1,360	11.9%	$-1,191 (vs do-nothing $-2,445)
$770	22d	21 Aug 2026	$58.40	1/1	$7,964	$7,413	58%	70%	+$639	-$0	0.0%	$904 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$765	4d	3 Aug 2026	$24.55	1/1	$18,412	$17,862	58%	69%	+$1,264	-$3,150	27.5%	$-2,981 (vs do-nothing $-4,235)
$765	6d	5 Aug 2026	$30.75	1/1	$15,375	$14,824	57%	69%	+$379	-$2,530	22.1%	$-2,361 (vs do-nothing $-3,615)
$765	8d	7 Aug 2026	$39.80	1/1	$14,925	$14,374	57%	69%	+$1,107	-$1,625	14.2%	$-1,456 (vs do-nothing $-2,710)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14