FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC850 @ $976.54

SS: $1028.00 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | 2026-06-12 22:08 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC850 @ $976.54 UNDERWATER $51.46 (5.0% below SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | SS: $1028.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: U18827291

LC: $850 exp 2028-12-15 (entry $539.437/sh)

SP: $850 exp 2028-12-15 (entry $361.366/sh)

Economics

Normal income ref	$8,389/mo
Hedge rolling cost	$1,671/mo
Unrealized P&L	$1,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,195/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,671/mo

NORMAL TARGET
$8,389/mo (95% ROI on ML)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERBOUGHT · %B 102 (live) · RSI 79 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 60 · %B 67 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB + 1σ (extension cap) $1,107.41 (+13%) · daily UBB $1,138.11 · 1-wk expected move ±$149 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-06-25: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK

Sell 1 × $1180 18 Jun 2026 (6d, $9.00 bid / $9.45 mid)

POP (stays ≤ $1189.45)

92%

Assignment risk

EV / cycle

+$572

EV / mo

+$2,860

Gross FIGHT income	$4,500/mo
vs 50% target ($4,195/mo)	+7%
vs normal target ($8,389/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,829/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($0)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$1,155
… cuts bleed by	-$1,671/mo

✓ Smallest cap give-up among candidates that hit the 50% income floor with POP ≥ 60%, EV ≥ $0/mo, Survival ≥ 50%. IV 111% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~9% · flat exit -$4,961 net · free roll-up ≈ +$108/wk

Challenge odds

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,961

Free roll-up

+$108/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$1,513 @ 81%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.25/sh (~25% of the $9.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,189.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,180)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,138.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,168.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,168-1,189.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,189.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,180.00 (1.5σ)	$900	$22,710	+$21,510	+$7,995
+2.5%	$1,209.50 (1.7σ)	$-2,050	$22,749	+$21,549	+$7,995
+5%	$1,239.00 (1.9σ)	$-5,000	$22,787	+$21,587	+$7,995

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $82.89/sh now → $58.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$49.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,178	26 Jun 2026	11d left	+$52.19/sh	+$5,219 cycle +$6,119	66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,303	26 Jun 2026	11d left	+$1.21/sh	+$121 cycle +$1,021	75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,513	24 Jul 2026	39d left	+$3.62/sh	+$362 cycle +$1,262	80%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,513	17 Jul 2026	32d left	-$4.19/sh	-$419 cycle +$481	81%
budget: banked $900 debit $419 (47% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$481 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $5,102/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($1,180) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 92% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 1 calls lose.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $1180 / 6d. Of every trade that clears the 50% income floor ($4,195/mo) with POP ≥ 60% and positive variance edge, this one mortgages the least recovery: $0 (0.0% of IC) if the stock V-bounces to SS.

Downside anchor: primary risks 0.0% of IC on a full V-bounce to SS, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $1,155 and cuts bleed by $1,671/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $1028.00 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $1,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,213

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1180): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,413 (+$5,213 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $14,318 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,905, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 272 eligible), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear the 50% income floor. Sorted by cap give-up (ascending). Primary 🎯 and frontier ◆ rows below; everything they dominate is in the collapsible pane.

Fortress delta: 1.013 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,213 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $14,318

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	POP (mid)	Survival	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
🎯 $1180	6d	18 Jun 2026	$9.00	1/1	$4,500	$2,829	92%	91%	+$2,860	-$0	0.0%	$7,313 (vs do-nothing $-7,005)

Show 271 dominated candidates (for each one, a frontier row above is cheaper on cap AND equal-or-better on POP; unlikely sells)

Showing the 60 lowest-cap dominated rows of 271.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	POP (mid)	Survival	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1175	6d	18 Jun 2026	$9.80	1/1	$4,900	$3,229	91%	90%	+$3,135	-$0	0.0%	$7,393 (vs do-nothing $-6,925)
$1170	6d	18 Jun 2026	$10.00	1/1	$5,000	$3,329	91%	90%	+$3,101	-$0	0.0%	$7,413 (vs do-nothing $-6,905)
$1165	6d	18 Jun 2026	$10.45	1/1	$5,225	$3,554	90%	89%	+$3,183	-$0	0.0%	$7,458 (vs do-nothing $-6,860)
$1160	6d	18 Jun 2026	$11.30	1/1	$5,650	$3,979	90%	89%	+$3,454	-$0	0.0%	$7,543 (vs do-nothing $-6,775)
$1155	6d	18 Jun 2026	$11.70	1/1	$5,850	$4,179	90%	88%	+$3,488	-$0	0.0%	$7,583 (vs do-nothing $-6,735)
$1150	6d	18 Jun 2026	$12.70	1/1	$6,350	$4,679	89%	88%	+$3,811	-$0	0.0%	$7,683 (vs do-nothing $-6,635)
$1145	6d	18 Jun 2026	$13.25	1/1	$6,625	$4,954	89%	87%	+$3,896	-$0	0.0%	$7,738 (vs do-nothing $-6,580)
$1290	14d	26 Jun 2026	$20.00	1/1	$4,286	$2,614	89%	87%	+$2,202	-$0	0.0%	$8,413 (vs do-nothing $-5,905)
$1140	6d	18 Jun 2026	$13.85	1/1	$6,925	$5,254	88%	86%	+$3,993	-$0	0.0%	$7,798 (vs do-nothing $-6,520)
$1280	14d	26 Jun 2026	$20.70	1/1	$4,436	$2,764	88%	87%	+$2,200	-$0	0.0%	$8,483 (vs do-nothing $-5,835)
$1135	6d	18 Jun 2026	$14.55	1/1	$7,275	$5,604	88%	86%	+$4,126	-$0	0.0%	$7,868 (vs do-nothing $-6,450)
$1270	14d	26 Jun 2026	$21.90	1/1	$4,693	$3,021	88%	86%	+$2,294	-$0	0.0%	$8,603 (vs do-nothing $-5,715)
$1130	6d	18 Jun 2026	$15.40	1/1	$7,700	$6,029	87%	85%	+$4,318	-$0	0.0%	$7,953 (vs do-nothing $-6,365)
$1260	14d	26 Jun 2026	$23.65	1/1	$5,068	$3,396	87%	85%	+$2,494	-$0	0.0%	$8,778 (vs do-nothing $-5,540)
$1125	6d	18 Jun 2026	$16.25	1/1	$8,125	$6,454	87%	84%	+$4,495	-$0	0.0%	$8,038 (vs do-nothing $-6,280)
$1300	20d	2 Jul 2026	$28.30	1/1	$4,245	$2,574	87%	85%	+$2,041	-$0	0.0%	$9,243 (vs do-nothing $-5,075)
$1250	14d	26 Jun 2026	$25.00	1/1	$5,357	$3,686	86%	85%	+$2,596	-$0	0.0%	$8,913 (vs do-nothing $-5,405)
$1120	6d	18 Jun 2026	$17.20	1/1	$8,600	$6,929	86%	84%	+$4,704	-$0	0.0%	$8,133 (vs do-nothing $-6,185)
$1290	20d	2 Jul 2026	$29.40	1/1	$4,410	$2,739	86%	84%	+$2,074	-$0	0.0%	$9,353 (vs do-nothing $-4,965)
$1240	14d	26 Jun 2026	$26.05	1/1	$5,582	$3,911	86%	84%	+$2,620	-$0	0.0%	$9,018 (vs do-nothing $-5,300)
$1280	20d	2 Jul 2026	$30.75	1/1	$4,612	$2,941	86%	83%	+$2,136	-$0	0.0%	$9,488 (vs do-nothing $-4,830)
$1115	6d	18 Jun 2026	$18.15	1/1	$9,075	$7,404	86%	83%	+$4,896	-$0	0.0%	$8,228 (vs do-nothing $-6,090)
$1230	14d	26 Jun 2026	$27.00	1/1	$5,786	$4,114	85%	83%	+$2,608	-$0	0.0%	$9,113 (vs do-nothing $-5,205)
$1240	20d	2 Jul 2026	$35.50	1/1	$5,325	$3,654	85%	82%	+$2,792	-$0	0.0%	$9,963 (vs do-nothing $-4,355)
$1270	20d	2 Jul 2026	$30.90	1/1	$4,635	$2,964	85%	83%	+$2,009	-$0	0.0%	$9,503 (vs do-nothing $-4,815)
$1110	6d	18 Jun 2026	$19.10	1/1	$9,550	$7,879	85%	82%	+$5,070	-$0	0.0%	$8,323 (vs do-nothing $-5,995)
$1225	14d	26 Jun 2026	$28.45	1/1	$6,096	$4,425	85%	83%	+$2,805	-$0	0.0%	$9,258 (vs do-nothing $-5,060)
$1180	14d	26 Jun 2026	$36.25	1/1	$7,768	$6,096	85%	81%	+$4,459	-$0	0.0%	$10,038 (vs do-nothing $-4,280)
$1220	14d	26 Jun 2026	$28.65	1/1	$6,139	$4,468	85%	82%	+$2,731	-$0	0.0%	$9,278 (vs do-nothing $-5,040)
$1260	20d	2 Jul 2026	$32.35	1/1	$4,853	$3,181	85%	82%	+$2,069	-$0	0.0%	$9,648 (vs do-nothing $-4,670)
$1230	20d	2 Jul 2026	$37.15	1/1	$5,572	$3,901	85%	81%	+$2,861	-$0	0.0%	$10,128 (vs do-nothing $-4,190)
$1105	6d	18 Jun 2026	$20.15	1/1	$10,075	$8,404	84%	81%	+$5,273	-$0	0.0%	$8,428 (vs do-nothing $-5,890)
$1215	14d	26 Jun 2026	$30.05	1/1	$6,439	$4,768	84%	82%	+$2,909	-$0	0.0%	$9,418 (vs do-nothing $-4,900)
$1175	14d	26 Jun 2026	$37.40	1/1	$8,014	$6,343	84%	80%	+$4,563	-$0	0.0%	$10,153 (vs do-nothing $-4,165)
$1290	28d	10 Jul 2026	$39.20	1/1	$4,200	$2,529	84%	82%	+$1,857	-$0	0.0%	$10,333 (vs do-nothing $-3,985)
$1250	20d	2 Jul 2026	$35.35	1/1	$5,303	$3,631	84%	81%	+$2,352	-$0	0.0%	$9,948 (vs do-nothing $-4,370)
$1210	14d	26 Jun 2026	$30.20	1/1	$6,471	$4,800	84%	81%	+$2,815	-$0	0.0%	$9,433 (vs do-nothing $-4,885)
$1100	6d	18 Jun 2026	$21.45	1/1	$10,725	$9,054	84%	80%	+$5,581	-$0	0.0%	$8,558 (vs do-nothing $-5,760)
$1205	14d	26 Jun 2026	$31.60	1/1	$6,771	$5,100	84%	81%	+$2,985	-$0	0.0%	$9,573 (vs do-nothing $-4,745)
$1280	28d	10 Jul 2026	$40.45	1/1	$4,334	$2,662	84%	81%	+$1,869	-$0	0.0%	$10,458 (vs do-nothing $-3,860)
$1165	14d	26 Jun 2026	$38.60	1/1	$8,271	$6,600	84%	79%	+$4,518	-$0	0.0%	$10,273 (vs do-nothing $-4,045)
$1200	14d	26 Jun 2026	$33.50	1/1	$7,179	$5,507	83%	80%	+$3,258	-$0	0.0%	$9,763 (vs do-nothing $-4,555)
$1095	6d	18 Jun 2026	$22.30	1/1	$11,150	$9,479	83%	79%	+$5,642	-$0	0.0%	$8,643 (vs do-nothing $-5,675)
$1270	28d	10 Jul 2026	$41.05	1/1	$4,398	$2,727	83%	80%	+$1,805	-$0	0.0%	$10,518 (vs do-nothing $-3,800)
$1195	14d	26 Jun 2026	$32.40	1/1	$6,943	$5,271	83%	80%	+$2,883	-$0	0.0%	$9,653 (vs do-nothing $-4,665)
$1155	14d	26 Jun 2026	$40.00	1/1	$8,571	$6,900	83%	78%	+$4,493	-$0	0.0%	$10,413 (vs do-nothing $-3,905)
$1190	14d	26 Jun 2026	$34.15	1/1	$7,318	$5,646	83%	79%	+$3,114	-$0	0.0%	$9,828 (vs do-nothing $-4,490)
$1290	35d	17 Jul 2026	$49.65	1/1	$4,256	$2,584	83%	80%	+$1,852	-$0	0.0%	$11,378 (vs do-nothing $-2,940)
$1260	28d	10 Jul 2026	$42.85	1/1	$4,591	$2,920	83%	80%	+$1,863	-$0	0.0%	$10,698 (vs do-nothing $-3,620)
$1090	6d	18 Jun 2026	$23.45	1/1	$11,725	$10,054	83%	78%	+$5,830	-$0	0.0%	$8,758 (vs do-nothing $-5,560)
$1185	14d	26 Jun 2026	$34.35	1/1	$7,361	$5,689	82%	79%	+$3,008	-$0	0.0%	$9,848 (vs do-nothing $-4,470)
$1220	20d	2 Jul 2026	$40.15	1/1	$6,022	$4,351	82%	79%	+$2,510	-$0	0.0%	$10,428 (vs do-nothing $-3,890)
$1280	35d	17 Jul 2026	$52.15	1/1	$4,470	$2,799	82%	79%	+$1,958	-$0	0.0%	$11,628 (vs do-nothing $-2,690)
$1250	28d	10 Jul 2026	$44.80	1/1	$4,800	$3,129	82%	79%	+$1,930	-$0	0.0%	$10,893 (vs do-nothing $-3,425)
$1145	14d	26 Jun 2026	$43.65	1/1	$9,354	$7,682	82%	77%	+$4,926	-$0	0.0%	$10,778 (vs do-nothing $-3,540)
$1085	6d	18 Jun 2026	$24.60	1/1	$12,300	$10,629	82%	77%	+$5,994	-$0	0.0%	$8,873 (vs do-nothing $-5,445)
$1270	35d	17 Jul 2026	$53.90	1/1	$4,620	$2,949	82%	78%	+$1,994	-$0	0.0%	$11,803 (vs do-nothing $-2,515)
$1210	20d	2 Jul 2026	$42.05	1/1	$6,308	$4,636	82%	78%	+$2,585	-$0	0.0%	$10,618 (vs do-nothing $-3,700)
$1240	28d	10 Jul 2026	$46.55	1/1	$4,987	$3,316	82%	78%	+$1,969	-$0	0.0%	$11,068 (vs do-nothing $-3,250)
$1140	14d	26 Jun 2026	$44.60	1/1	$9,557	$7,886	82%	76%	+$4,945	-$0	0.0%	$10,873 (vs do-nothing $-3,445)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v4.4 | 2026-06-12 22:08