FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $917.54

BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1053.37 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $917.54 UNDERWATER $111.06 (10.8% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1053.37 (banked floor $994.82) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $2.007/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$419,300	(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$42,750/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$222/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-71,090	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,375/mo

HEDGE COVER
$222/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$42,750/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $74,300

ML VELOCITY
9.8 mo to earn back $419,300

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $1053.37 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $945C (14d, $32,732/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$30,806

Hole (after banked)

$40,284

was $71,090 · 43% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$1,053.37 → $994.82

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 66 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,245.25 (+36%) · daily UBB $994.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$87 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $990 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 94%, breach 6%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,375/mo); it brings $22,425/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $965/2d for $43,500/mo, but breach risk rises to 20% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $1170/2d (99+% survival, $225/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $30,192 (41% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-71,155 and cuts bleed by $222/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $990, 94% survival, $22,425/mo (E[net] $13,202/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	14 Aug 2026 · 2d	5 × $990	94%	$22,425	$13,202
NEXT FRIDAY	21 Aug 2026 · 9d	5 × $990	78%	$22,000	$910

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,495 with probability 89%; on the 11% touch you roll, paying $7,528 to close and taking $3,330 back from the best priced door (net cash $4,198) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 · 2d · E[net] $13,202/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $990 (50% normal), 94% survival, breach 6%, $22,425/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1005 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 97% (breach 6% → 3%) for $7,425/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

MU spot $917.54 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $1170

14 Aug

27.5%

99+%hist 97%

0%hist 2%

-7pp

$15

$225

-$22,200

Sell 5 × $1170 27.5% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.09 mid)

= $15 credit for the 2d cycle → $225/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1170)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1170.09)

99+%

EV / mo

+$225

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-7pp

82% whole by 9mo vs 88% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-203/mo

median; plan ~$-138/mo after 68% keep · $-147 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.4], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,882

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,312 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $25.16/sh now → $17.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,170	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$4.58/sh	+$2,291 cycle +$2,306	64% surv 51%	+$66,282 SAFE cap gain +$137,372
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,177	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.37/sh	+$686 cycle +$701	67% surv 56%	+$68,669 SAFE cap gain +$139,759
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,312	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.65/sh	+$327 cycle +$342	84% surv 81%	+$140,534 SAFE cap gain +$211,624

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$225/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1170 is at/above CC-SS $1053.37: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,118

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $1,170.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,158.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,158-1,170.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,170.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,170.00 (5.4σ)	$15	$63,991	+$135,081	+$62,440
+2.5%	$1,199.25 (6.1σ)	$-14,610	$65,015	+$136,105	+$62,440
+5%	$1,228.50 (6.7σ)	$-29,235	$66,039	+$137,129	+$62,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1170): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,581 (+$72,671 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,112, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $1005

14 Aug

9.5%

97%hist 97%

7%hist 2%

-3pp

$1,000

$15,000

-$7,425

$23,187

Sell 5 × $1005 9.5% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $2.10 mid)

= $1,000 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1005)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1007.10)

97%

EV / mo

+$13,093

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

85% whole by 9mo vs 88% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$9,851/mo

median; plan ~$6,699/mo after 68% keep · $4,997 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.1], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,642

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,177 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $21.61/sh now → $15.28 mid-life (likely $15.56–$31.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 222 simulated challenges: the $1,005 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,026 (overshoots $21.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,005	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.53/sh	+$3,263 cycle +$4,263 [+$2,309…+$3,774] · 95% credit	64% surv 51%	-$20,036 NOT cap gain +$51,054
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,137	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$5.00/sh	+$2,500 cycle +$3,500 [-$2,376…+$2,751] · 64% credit	83% surv 81%	+$50,067 SAFE cap gain +$121,157
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,017	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.32/sh	+$659 cycle +$1,659 [-$1,633…+$823] · 52% credit	68% surv 59%	-$15,974 NOT cap gain +$55,116
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,157	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.52/sh	+$261 cycle +$1,261 [-$5,397…+$373] · 32% credit	85% surv 83%	+$58,528 SAFE cap gain +$129,618
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,177	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$1.76/sh	-$880 cycle +$120 [-$6,700…-$811] · 14% credit	88% surv 86%	+$68,088 SAFE cap gain +$139,178
budget: banked $1,000 debit $880 (88% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,221/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,778/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1005 is $48 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,187
… as % of IC ($74,300)	31.2%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	5.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,140

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,007.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,005)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $994.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $995-1,007.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,007.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,005.00 (1.9σ)	$1,000	$-23,299	+$47,791	-$6,575
+2.5%	$1,030.12 (2.4σ)	$-11,562	$-22,420	+$48,670	-$19,075
+5%	$1,055.25 (3.0σ)	$-24,125	$-21,540	+$49,550	-$19,075

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1005): -$23,187

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,606 (+$49,484 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,075, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $990

14 Aug

7.9%

94%hist 97%

13%hist 9%

+0pp

$1,495

$22,425

—

$30,192

Sell 5 × $990 7.9% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $3.12 mid)

= $1,495 credit for the 2d cycle → $22,425/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $993.12)

94%

EV / mo

+$17,670

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

87% whole by 9mo vs 87% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$18,272/mo

median; plan ~$12,425/mo after 68% keep · $8,556 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.2-1.0], measured ONLY among the 87% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,033

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,167 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $21.29/sh now → $15.06 mid-life (likely $15.55–$30.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,011 (overshoots $20.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.66/sh	+$3,330 cycle +$4,825 [+$2,389…+$3,735] · 96% credit	64% surv 51%	-$27,499 NOT cap gain +$43,591
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,112	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$5.75/sh	+$2,873 cycle +$4,368 [-$1,684…+$2,836] · 63% credit	82% surv 79%	+$37,561 SAFE cap gain +$108,651
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,002	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.46/sh	+$729 cycle +$2,224 [-$1,430…+$713] · 51% credit	68% surv 59%	-$23,434 NOT cap gain +$47,656
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,142	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$287 cycle +$1,782 [-$5,077…+$168] · 28% credit	85% surv 83%	+$51,024 SAFE cap gain +$122,114
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,167	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$1.94/sh	-$969 cycle +$526 [-$6,490…-$1,107] · 12% credit	88% surv 87%	+$63,144 SAFE cap gain +$134,234
budget: banked $1,495 debit $969 (65% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$526 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,945/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,425/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,203/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $990 is $63 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,192
… as % of IC ($74,300)	40.6%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	7.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,155

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $2.99 collected) or spot ≥ $993.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $980-993.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $993.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$990.00 (1.6σ)	$1,495	$-30,829	+$40,261	-$6,080
+2.5%	$1,014.75 (2.1σ)	$-10,880	$-29,963	+$41,127	-$18,455
+5%	$1,039.50 (2.6σ)	$-23,255	$-29,096	+$41,994	-$26,080

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $990): -$30,192

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,611 (+$42,479 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,080, the opportunity cost of earning $22,425/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $985

14 Aug

7.4%

92%hist 97%

16%hist 9%

+1pp

$1,700

$25,500

+$3,075

$32,487

Sell 5 × $985 7.4% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $3.52 mid)

= $1,700 credit for the 2d cycle → $25,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $985)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $988.52)

93%

EV / mo

+$19,176

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

91% whole by 9mo vs 90% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$20,628/mo

median; plan ~$14,027/mo after 68% keep · $11,434 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.3], measured ONLY among the 91% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,790

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,162 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $21.18/sh now → $14.98 mid-life (likely $16.48–$31.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $985 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,008 (overshoots $23.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$985	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.70/sh	+$3,351 cycle +$5,051 [+$2,266…+$3,541] · 95% credit	64% surv 51%	-$29,947 NOT cap gain +$41,143
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,107	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$5.76/sh	+$2,878 cycle +$4,578 [-$2,258…+$2,515] · 61% credit	82% surv 79%	+$35,095 SAFE cap gain +$106,185
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$997	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.50/sh	+$752 cycle +$2,452 [-$1,655…+$586] · 46% credit	68% surv 59%	-$25,881 NOT cap gain +$45,209
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,137	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.59/sh	+$295 cycle +$1,995 [-$5,731…-$175] · 21% credit	85% surv 83%	+$48,562 SAFE cap gain +$119,652
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,162	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$1.91/sh	-$957 cycle +$743 [-$7,184…-$1,458] · 8% credit	88% surv 87%	+$60,685 SAFE cap gain +$131,775
budget: banked $1,700 debit $957 (56% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$743 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,909/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$25,500/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	+19%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$25,278/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $985 is $68 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,487
… as % of IC ($74,300)	43.7%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	7.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,152

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $988.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $985)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $975.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $975-988.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $988.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$985.00 (1.5σ)	$1,700	$-33,299	+$37,791	-$5,875
+2.5%	$1,009.62 (2.0σ)	$-10,612	$-32,437	+$38,653	-$18,187
+5%	$1,034.25 (2.5σ)	$-22,925	$-31,575	+$39,515	-$28,375

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $985): -$32,487

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,906 (+$40,184 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,375, the opportunity cost of earning $25,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $965

14 Aug

5.2%

80%hist 87%

40%hist 37%

+2pp

$2,900

$43,500

+$21,075

$41,287

Sell 5 × $965 5.2% OTM over spot $917.54 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $6.00 mid)

= $2,900 credit for the 2d cycle → $43,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $965)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $971.00)

83%

EV / mo

+$10,598

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

90% whole by 9mo vs 88% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$32,661/mo

median; plan ~$22,209/mo after 68% keep · $11,483 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-0.8], measured ONLY among the 90% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,438

Free roll-up

+$29/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,167 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $20.75/sh now → $14.68 mid-life (likely $16.23–$31.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 679 simulated challenges: the $965 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $987 (overshoots $22.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$965	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$6.87/sh	+$3,434 cycle +$6,334 [+$2,288…+$3,486] · 95% credit	64% surv 51%	-$39,365 NOT cap gain +$31,725
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,037	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$7.97/sh	+$3,984 cycle +$6,884 [-$272…+$3,742] · 73% credit	78% surv 73%	-$49 NOT cap gain +$71,041
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$977	17 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.68/sh	+$838 cycle +$3,738 [-$1,550…+$697] · 46% credit	69% surv 59%	-$35,295 NOT cap gain +$35,795
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,117	4 Sep 2026	22d left	+$0.64/sh	+$320 cycle +$3,220 [-$5,810…-$135] · 23% credit	85% surv 83%	+$39,087 SAFE cap gain +$110,177
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,167	4 Sep 2026	22d left	-$5.01/sh	-$2,504 cycle +$396 [-$9,318…-$3,095]	90% surv 89%	+$63,014 SAFE cap gain +$134,104
budget: banked $2,900 debit $2,504 (86% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$396 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,592/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$43,500/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$43,278/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $965 is $88 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,287
… as % of IC ($74,300)	55.6%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	9.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,190

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $971.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $965)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $955.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $955-971.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $971.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$965.00 (1.0σ)	$2,900	$-42,799	+$28,291	-$4,675
+2.5%	$989.12 (1.5σ)	$-9,162	$-41,955	+$29,135	-$16,737
+5%	$1,013.25 (2.1σ)	$-21,225	$-41,110	+$29,980	-$28,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (2.4σ)	$-28,900	$-40,573	+$30,517	-$36,475

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $965): -$41,287

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,706 (+$31,384 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,175, the opportunity cost of earning $43,500/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 21 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $910/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $990 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $22,000/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1020 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 22% → 16%) for $7,750/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1020 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.

MU spot $917.54 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

3 × $1270

21 Aug

38.4%

99%hist 97%

2%hist 2%

-3pp

$96

$320

-$21,680

Sell 3 × $1270 38.4% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.43 mid)

= $96 credit for the 9d cycle → $320/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1270)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1270.43)

99%

EV / mo

+$216

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

86% whole by 9mo vs 89% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,652/mo

median; plan ~$3,843/mo after 68% keep · $2,644 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-1.1], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,679

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,317 @ 73% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $50.78/sh now → $35.92 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,270	24 Aug 2026	8d left	-$5.14/sh	-$1,543 cycle -$1,447	64% surv 51%	+$71,059 SAFE cap gain +$142,149
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,317	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.84/sh	+$251 cycle +$347	73% surv 64%	+$88,752 SAFE cap gain +$159,842

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$320/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,780/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1053.37: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-42,687

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $1,270.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.43	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.43	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,270.00 (3.6σ)	$96	$72,602	+$143,692	+$67,551
+2.5%	$1,301.75 (3.9σ)	$-9,429	$73,713	+$144,803	+$67,551
+5%	$1,333.50 (4.2σ)	$-18,954	$74,825	+$145,915	+$67,551

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $1270): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $1030): -$1,645

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64 (+$71,026 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,467, the opportunity cost of earning $320/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $1060

21 Aug

15.5%

90%hist 97%

20%hist 9%

-5pp

$2,375

$7,917

-$14,083

Sell 5 × $1060 15.5% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $4.97 mid)

= $2,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,917/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $1064.97)

91%

EV / mo

+$2,725

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-5pp

83% whole by 9mo vs 88% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,706/mo

median; plan ~$3,200/mo after 68% keep · $4,467 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.1], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$12,614

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,147 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $42.39/sh now → $29.98 mid-life (likely $25.45–$42.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 367 simulated challenges: the $1,060 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,083 (overshoots $22.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,112	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$4.09/sh	+$2,046 cycle +$4,421 [-$29…+$4,381] · 74% credit	74% surv 66%	+$37,613 SAFE cap gain +$108,703
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,060	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.36/sh	+$179 cycle +$2,554 [-$594…+$2,247] · 65% credit	64% surv 52%	+$7,680 SAFE cap gain +$78,770
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,122	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$1.04/sh	+$520 cycle +$2,895 [-$1,924…+$2,753] · 53% credit	75% surv 69%	+$41,437 SAFE cap gain +$112,527
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,147	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$4.75/sh	-$2,373 cycle +$2 [-$5,547…-$411] · 23% credit	79% surv 74%	+$51,920 SAFE cap gain +$123,010
budget: banked $2,375 debit $2,373 (100% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $21,027/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,917/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,695/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1060 is at/above CC-SS $1053.37: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,202

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.19/sh (~25% of the $4.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,064.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,060)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,049.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,049-1,064.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,064.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,060.00 (1.4σ)	$2,375	$7,501	+$78,591	+$9,800
+2.5%	$1,086.50 (1.7σ)	$-10,875	$8,429	+$79,519	+$9,800
+5%	$1,113.00 (2.0σ)	$-24,125	$9,356	+$80,446	+$9,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1060): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,581 (+$72,671 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,112, the opportunity cost of earning $7,917/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $1020

21 Aug

11.2%

84%hist 87%

33%hist 28%

-3pp

$4,275

$14,250

-$7,750

$12,412

Sell 5 × $1020 11.2% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $8.88 mid)

= $4,275 credit for the 9d cycle → $14,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1020)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $1028.88)

86%

EV / mo

+$3,541

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

85% whole by 9mo vs 88% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,303/mo

median; plan ~$5,646/mo after 68% keep · $8,051 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-0.9], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

24%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,148

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,122 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $40.79/sh now → $28.85 mid-life (likely $27.96–$45.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$20.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 707 simulated challenges: the $1,020 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,043 (overshoots $23.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,072	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$4.71/sh	+$2,357 cycle +$6,632 [-$995…+$3,423] · 65% credit	74% surv 66%	+$18,424 SAFE cap gain +$89,514
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,020	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.20/sh	+$599 cycle +$4,874 [-$857…+$1,646] · 54% credit	64% surv 52%	-$11,400 NOT cap gain +$59,690
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,022	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.38/sh	+$192 cycle +$4,467 [-$1,361…+$1,189] · 44% credit	65% surv 53%	-$10,490 NOT cap gain +$60,600
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,087	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$155 cycle +$4,430 [-$3,646…+$1,017] · 33% credit	76% surv 70%	+$24,248 SAFE cap gain +$95,338
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,122	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$7.53/sh	-$3,766 cycle +$509 [-$8,491…-$3,263] · 8% credit	81% surv 77%	+$39,052 SAFE cap gain +$110,142
budget: banked $4,275 debit $3,766 (88% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$509 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $17,763/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,250/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,028/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1020 is $33 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,412
… as % of IC ($74,300)	16.7%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	3.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,252

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.14/sh (~25% of the $8.55 collected) or spot ≥ $1,028.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,020)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,009.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,010-1,028.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,028.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,020.00 (1.0σ)	$4,275	$-11,999	+$59,091	-$3,300
+2.5%	$1,045.50 (1.3σ)	$-8,475	$-11,106	+$59,984	-$8,300
+5%	$1,071.00 (1.6σ)	$-21,225	$-10,214	+$60,876	-$8,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1020): -$12,412

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,831 (+$60,259 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,300, the opportunity cost of earning $14,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $990

21 Aug

7.9%

78%hist 86%

46%hist 37%

-1pp

$6,600

$22,000

—

$25,087

Sell 5 × $990 7.9% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $13.77 mid)

= $6,600 credit for the 9d cycle → $22,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $990)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $1003.77)

81%

EV / mo

+$5,595

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

88% whole by 9mo vs 89% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$21,778/mo

median; plan ~$14,809/mo after 68% keep · $12,612 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.1], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,399

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,122 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $39.59/sh now → $28.00 mid-life (likely $29.33–$44.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,052 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,011 (overshoots $20.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,042	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$5.11/sh	+$2,556 cycle +$9,156 [-$729…+$2,812] · 63% credit	74% surv 67%	+$4,898 SAFE cap gain +$75,988
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$990	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.78/sh	+$891 cycle +$7,491 [-$722…+$1,388] · 52% credit	64% surv 52%	-$24,832 NOT cap gain +$46,258
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$992	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.97/sh	+$485 cycle +$7,085 [-$1,189…+$902] · 41% credit	65% surv 53%	-$23,923 NOT cap gain +$47,167
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,057	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.73/sh	+$366 cycle +$6,966 [-$3,368…+$482] · 30% credit	76% surv 70%	+$10,733 SAFE cap gain +$81,823
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,122	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$11.76/sh	-$5,878 cycle +$722 [-$11,135…-$6,309] · 2% credit	85% surv 83%	+$39,264 SAFE cap gain +$110,354
budget: banked $6,600 debit $5,878 (89% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$722 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $13,535/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,000/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,778/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $990 is $63 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,087
… as % of IC ($74,300)	33.8%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	6.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,378

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.30/sh (~25% of the $13.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,003.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $980-1,003.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,003.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$990.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,600	$-25,724	+$45,366	-$975
+2.5%	$1,014.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-5,775	$-24,858	+$46,232	-$13,350
+5%	$1,039.50 (1.2σ)	$-18,150	$-23,991	+$47,099	-$20,975

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $990): -$25,087

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,506 (+$47,584 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,975, the opportunity cost of earning $22,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $940

21 Aug

2.4%

61%hist 71%

81%hist 79%

+2pp

$13,075

$43,583

+$21,583

$43,612

Sell 5 × $940 2.4% OTM over spot $917.54 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $26.98 mid)

= $13,075 credit for the 9d cycle → $43,583/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $940)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $966.98)

71%

EV / mo

+$4,029

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

92% whole by 9mo vs 90% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$48,782/mo

median; plan ~$33,172/mo after 68% keep · $13,060 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-0.8], measured ONLY among the 92% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

65%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$217

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026)

$1,117 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $37.59/sh now → $26.58 mid-life (likely $35.51–$48.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $26.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,953 simulated challenges: the $940 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $961 (overshoots $21.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$987	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$7.33/sh	+$3,665 cycle +$16,740 [-$523…+$1,861] · 68% credit	74% surv 66%	-$16,943 NOT cap gain +$54,147
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$940	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.67/sh	+$1,337 cycle +$14,412 [-$854…+$359] · 36% credit	64% surv 52%	-$44,661 NOT cap gain +$26,429
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$942	24 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.86/sh	+$930 cycle +$14,005 [-$1,320…-$88] · 23% credit	65% surv 53%	-$43,753 NOT cap gain +$27,337
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,012	4 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$114 cycle +$13,189 [-$4,899…-$2,029] · 9% credit	77% surv 72%	-$7,118 NOT cap gain +$63,972
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,117	4 Sep 2026	18d left	-$17.04/sh	-$8,518 cycle +$4,557 [-$16,341…-$11,577]	90% surv 89%	+$40,424 SAFE cap gain +$111,514
budget: banked $13,075 debit $8,518 (65% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,557 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,957/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$43,583/mo
vs 50% target ($21,375/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($42,750/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$43,362/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $940 is $113 below CC-SS $1053.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,612
… as % of IC ($74,300)	58.7%
… as % of ML ($419,300)	10.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-71,502

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $6.54/sh (~25% of the $26.15 collected) or spot ≥ $966.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $940)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $994.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $930.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $931-966.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $966.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$940.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$13,075	$-45,999	+$25,091	+$5,500
+2.5%	$963.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,325	$-45,176	+$25,914	-$6,250
+5%	$987.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-10,425	$-44,354	+$26,736	-$18,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,028.60 (1.1σ)	$-31,225	$-42,898	+$28,192	-$38,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1053.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,090

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,671

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $940): -$43,612

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,031 (+$29,059 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,531 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,500, the opportunity cost of earning $43,583/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (133 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 133 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.070 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$72,671 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,531

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$990	2d	14 Aug 2026	$2.99	5/5	$22,425	$22,203	94%	94%	+$17,670	-$30,192	40.6%	$-28,611 (vs do-nothing $-26,080)
$985	2d	14 Aug 2026	$3.40	5/5	$25,500	$25,278	92%	93%	+$19,176	-$32,487	43.7%	$-30,906 (vs do-nothing $-28,375)
$980	2d	14 Aug 2026	$3.85	4/5	$23,100	$25,719	86%	87%	+$7,450	-$27,810	37.4%	$-27,051 (vs do-nothing $-24,520)
$975	2d	14 Aug 2026	$4.45	4/5	$26,700	$29,319	84%	86%	+$8,056	-$29,570	39.8%	$-28,811 (vs do-nothing $-26,280)
$970	2d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	3/5	$22,950	$28,410	82%	85%	+$6,317	-$23,482	31.6%	$-23,546 (vs do-nothing $-21,015)
$965	2d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	3/5	$26,100	$31,560	80%	83%	+$6,359	-$24,772	33.3%	$-24,836 (vs do-nothing $-22,305)
$962.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	3/5	$26,550	$32,010	79%	82%	+$5,063	-$25,492	34.3%	$-25,556 (vs do-nothing $-23,025)
$960	2d	14 Aug 2026	$6.65	3/5	$29,925	$35,385	78%	81%	+$6,554	-$26,017	35.0%	$-26,081 (vs do-nothing $-23,550)
$990	9d	21 Aug 2026	$13.20	5/5	$22,000	$21,778	78%	81%	+$5,595	-$25,087	33.8%	$-23,506 (vs do-nothing $-20,975)
$970	5d	17 Aug 2026	$7.95	5/5	$23,850	$23,628	78%	81%	+$3,495	-$37,712	50.8%	$-36,131 (vs do-nothing $-33,600)
$957.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$6.95	3/5	$31,275	$36,735	77%	80%	+$5,875	-$26,677	35.9%	$-26,741 (vs do-nothing $-24,210)
$965	5d	17 Aug 2026	$9.05	4/5	$21,720	$24,339	76%	80%	+$3,192	-$31,730	42.7%	$-30,971 (vs do-nothing $-28,440)
$985	9d	21 Aug 2026	$14.20	5/5	$23,667	$23,445	76%	80%	+$3,966	-$27,087	36.5%	$-25,506 (vs do-nothing $-22,975)

Show 120 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 120.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$975	7d	19 Aug 2026	$10.50	5/5	$22,500	$22,278	75%	80%	+$1,232	-$33,937	45.7%	$-32,356 (vs do-nothing $-29,825)
$955	2d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	2/5	$22,200	$30,500	75%	79%	+$3,812	-$18,195	24.5%	$-19,081 (vs do-nothing $-16,550)
$980	9d	21 Aug 2026	$15.30	5/5	$25,500	$25,278	74%	79%	+$4,065	-$29,037	39.1%	$-27,456 (vs do-nothing $-24,925)
$970	7d	19 Aug 2026	$12.10	5/5	$25,929	$25,707	74%	79%	+$2,421	-$35,637	48.0%	$-34,056 (vs do-nothing $-31,525)
$960	5d	17 Aug 2026	$9.90	4/5	$23,760	$26,379	74%	78%	+$2,717	-$33,390	44.9%	$-32,631 (vs do-nothing $-30,100)
$975	9d	21 Aug 2026	$16.45	4/5	$21,933	$24,552	73%	78%	+$3,290	-$24,770	33.3%	$-24,011 (vs do-nothing $-21,480)
$990	16d	28 Aug 2026	$23.25	5/5	$21,797	$21,575	73%	78%	+$4,221	-$20,062	27.0%	$-18,481 (vs do-nothing $-15,950)
$950	2d	14 Aug 2026	$8.65	2/5	$25,950	$34,250	73%	77%	+$4,326	-$18,945	25.5%	$-19,831 (vs do-nothing $-17,300)
$965	7d	19 Aug 2026	$13.05	4/5	$22,371	$24,991	72%	77%	+$1,607	-$30,130	40.6%	$-29,371 (vs do-nothing $-26,840)
$985	16d	28 Aug 2026	$23.55	5/5	$22,078	$21,857	71%	77%	+$2,944	-$22,412	30.2%	$-20,831 (vs do-nothing $-18,300)
$955	5d	17 Aug 2026	$11.10	4/5	$26,640	$29,259	71%	76%	+$2,788	-$34,910	47.0%	$-34,151 (vs do-nothing $-31,620)
$970	9d	21 Aug 2026	$17.65	4/5	$23,533	$26,152	71%	77%	+$3,283	-$26,290	35.4%	$-25,531 (vs do-nothing $-23,000)
$980	16d	28 Aug 2026	$25.80	5/5	$24,188	$23,966	70%	76%	+$3,841	-$23,787	32.0%	$-22,206 (vs do-nothing $-19,675)
$960	7d	19 Aug 2026	$13.80	4/5	$23,657	$26,276	70%	76%	+$472	-$31,830	42.8%	$-31,071 (vs do-nothing $-28,540)
$945	2d	14 Aug 2026	$9.75	2/5	$29,250	$37,550	70%	76%	+$3,914	-$19,725	26.5%	$-20,611 (vs do-nothing $-18,080)
$965	9d	21 Aug 2026	$18.85	4/5	$25,133	$27,752	70%	76%	+$3,156	-$27,810	37.4%	$-27,051 (vs do-nothing $-24,520)
$985	23d	4 Sep 2026	$32.90	5/5	$21,457	$21,235	69%	76%	+$3,046	-$17,737	23.9%	$-16,156 (vs do-nothing $-13,625)
$950	5d	17 Aug 2026	$12.60	3/5	$22,680	$28,140	69%	75%	+$2,448	-$27,232	36.7%	$-27,296 (vs do-nothing $-24,765)
$975	16d	28 Aug 2026	$27.05	5/5	$25,359	$25,138	69%	76%	+$3,735	-$25,662	34.5%	$-24,081 (vs do-nothing $-21,550)
$962.50	9d	21 Aug 2026	$19.55	4/5	$26,067	$28,686	69%	75%	+$3,179	-$28,530	38.4%	$-27,771 (vs do-nothing $-25,240)
$955	7d	19 Aug 2026	$14.80	4/5	$25,371	$27,991	68%	75%	+$149	-$33,430	45.0%	$-32,671 (vs do-nothing $-30,140)
$980	23d	4 Sep 2026	$34.30	5/5	$22,370	$22,148	68%	75%	+$3,029	-$19,537	26.3%	$-17,956 (vs do-nothing $-15,425)
$960	9d	21 Aug 2026	$20.25	4/5	$27,000	$29,619	68%	75%	+$3,171	-$29,250	39.4%	$-28,491 (vs do-nothing $-25,960)
$970	16d	28 Aug 2026	$27.60	5/5	$25,875	$25,653	68%	75%	+$2,903	-$27,887	37.5%	$-26,306 (vs do-nothing $-23,775)
$957.50	9d	21 Aug 2026	$20.85	4/5	$27,800	$30,419	67%	74%	+$4,098	-$30,010	40.4%	$-29,251 (vs do-nothing $-26,720)
$975	23d	4 Sep 2026	$35.35	5/5	$23,054	$22,833	67%	75%	+$2,742	-$21,512	29.0%	$-19,931 (vs do-nothing $-17,400)
$940	2d	14 Aug 2026	$10.95	2/5	$32,850	$41,150	67%	74%	+$3,270	-$20,485	27.6%	$-21,371 (vs do-nothing $-18,840)
$945	5d	17 Aug 2026	$13.30	3/5	$23,940	$29,400	67%	73%	+$1,112	-$28,522	38.4%	$-28,586 (vs do-nothing $-26,055)
$965	16d	28 Aug 2026	$29.90	4/5	$22,425	$25,044	66%	74%	+$2,913	-$23,390	31.5%	$-22,631 (vs do-nothing $-20,100)
$955	9d	21 Aug 2026	$21.65	3/5	$21,650	$27,110	66%	73%	+$2,291	-$23,017	31.0%	$-23,081 (vs do-nothing $-20,550)
$950	7d	19 Aug 2026	$16.90	3/5	$21,729	$27,188	66%	74%	+$921	-$25,942	34.9%	$-26,006 (vs do-nothing $-23,475)
$970	23d	4 Sep 2026	$37.40	5/5	$24,391	$24,170	66%	74%	+$3,066	-$22,987	30.9%	$-21,406 (vs do-nothing $-18,875)
$960	16d	28 Aug 2026	$30.60	4/5	$22,950	$25,569	65%	73%	+$2,246	-$25,110	33.8%	$-24,351 (vs do-nothing $-21,820)
$965	23d	4 Sep 2026	$39.15	5/5	$25,533	$25,311	65%	73%	+$3,152	-$24,612	33.1%	$-23,031 (vs do-nothing $-20,500)
$950	9d	21 Aug 2026	$23.20	3/5	$23,200	$28,660	65%	73%	+$3,029	-$24,052	32.4%	$-24,116 (vs do-nothing $-21,585)
$945	7d	19 Aug 2026	$17.80	3/5	$22,886	$28,345	64%	73%	+$33	-$27,172	36.6%	$-27,236 (vs do-nothing $-24,705)
$940	5d	17 Aug 2026	$14.80	3/5	$26,640	$32,100	64%	72%	+$948	-$29,572	39.8%	$-29,636 (vs do-nothing $-27,105)
$955	16d	28 Aug 2026	$33.15	4/5	$24,862	$27,482	64%	72%	+$2,905	-$26,090	35.1%	$-25,331 (vs do-nothing $-22,800)
$960	23d	4 Sep 2026	$40.15	5/5	$26,185	$25,963	64%	73%	+$2,705	-$26,612	35.8%	$-25,031 (vs do-nothing $-22,500)
$935	2d	14 Aug 2026	$12.50	2/5	$37,500	$45,800	63%	72%	+$3,103	-$21,175	28.5%	$-22,061 (vs do-nothing $-19,530)
$945	9d	21 Aug 2026	$24.80	3/5	$24,800	$30,260	63%	71%	+$2,158	-$25,072	33.7%	$-25,136 (vs do-nothing $-22,605)
$955	23d	4 Sep 2026	$42.10	4/5	$21,965	$24,584	63%	72%	+$2,266	-$22,510	30.3%	$-21,751 (vs do-nothing $-19,220)
$950	16d	28 Aug 2026	$34.75	4/5	$26,062	$28,682	62%	72%	+$2,791	-$27,450	36.9%	$-26,691 (vs do-nothing $-24,160)
$940	7d	19 Aug 2026	$19.50	3/5	$25,071	$30,531	62%	71%	+$11	-$28,162	37.9%	$-28,226 (vs do-nothing $-25,695)
$932.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$13.30	2/5	$39,900	$48,200	62%	71%	+$2,876	-$21,515	29.0%	$-22,401 (vs do-nothing $-19,870)
$945	14d	26 Aug 2026	$30.55	4/5	$26,186	$28,805	62%	72%	+$2,398	-$31,130	41.9%	$-30,371 (vs do-nothing $-27,840)
$950	23d	4 Sep 2026	$43.95	4/5	$22,930	$25,550	61%	71%	+$2,278	-$23,770	32.0%	$-23,011 (vs do-nothing $-20,480)
$935	5d	17 Aug 2026	$16.40	3/5	$29,520	$34,980	61%	70%	+$682	-$30,592	41.2%	$-30,656 (vs do-nothing $-28,125)
$940	9d	21 Aug 2026	$26.15	3/5	$26,150	$31,610	61%	71%	+$2,417	-$26,167	35.2%	$-26,231 (vs do-nothing $-23,700)
$945	16d	28 Aug 2026	$36.20	4/5	$27,150	$29,769	61%	71%	+$2,501	-$28,870	38.9%	$-28,111 (vs do-nothing $-25,580)
$945	23d	4 Sep 2026	$45.65	4/5	$23,817	$26,436	60%	71%	+$2,176	-$25,090	33.8%	$-24,331 (vs do-nothing $-21,800)
$930	2d	14 Aug 2026	$14.05	2/5	$42,150	$50,450	60%	70%	+$2,353	-$21,865	29.4%	$-22,751 (vs do-nothing $-20,220)
$940	14d	26 Aug 2026	$31.45	4/5	$26,957	$29,576	60%	71%	+$1,533	-$32,770	44.1%	$-32,011 (vs do-nothing $-29,480)
$935	7d	19 Aug 2026	$20.95	3/5	$26,936	$32,395	60%	70%	$-500	-$29,227	39.3%	$-29,291 (vs do-nothing $-26,760)
$940	16d	28 Aug 2026	$38.30	3/5	$21,544	$27,003	59%	70%	+$1,975	-$22,522	30.3%	$-22,586 (vs do-nothing $-20,055)
$935	9d	21 Aug 2026	$27.80	3/5	$27,800	$33,260	59%	70%	+$2,121	-$27,172	36.6%	$-27,236 (vs do-nothing $-24,705)
$940	23d	4 Sep 2026	$47.15	4/5	$24,600	$27,219	59%	70%	+$1,930	-$26,490	35.7%	$-25,731 (vs do-nothing $-23,200)
$930	5d	17 Aug 2026	$18.40	2/5	$22,080	$30,380	59%	69%	+$562	-$20,995	28.3%	$-21,881 (vs do-nothing $-19,350)
$935	14d	26 Aug 2026	$33.25	3/5	$21,375	$26,835	58%	70%	+$1,019	-$25,537	34.4%	$-25,601 (vs do-nothing $-23,070)
$927.50	2d	14 Aug 2026	$14.90	1/5	$22,350	$33,491	58%	69%	+$990	-$11,097	14.9%	$-12,806 (vs do-nothing $-10,275)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-12 21:39