FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $937.02

BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1043.74  |  5 contracts (500 sh)  |  2026-07-08 01:49 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $937.02   UNDERWATER $91.58 (8.9% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1043.74  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)
SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$419,300(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref$72,750/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$708/mo
Unrealized P&L$-60,275fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$36,375/mo
HEDGE COVER
$708/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$72,750/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300
ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $419,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1043.74 (probe: $1045C 14d) still earns $31,821/mo (44% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$4,780
Hole (after banked)
$55,495
was $60,275 · 8% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$1,052.93 → $1,043.74
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 74 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 21 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,211.77 (+29%) · daily UBB $1,230.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$132 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $1080 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 95%, breach 5%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($36,375/mo); it brings $36,375/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1032.50/2d for $73,500/mo, but breach risk rises to 12% (+7pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1165/2d (99+% survival, $2,100/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-60,362 and cuts bleed by $708/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $1080, 95% survival, $36,375/mo (E[net] $23,460/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆10 Jul 2026 · 2d5 × $108095%$36,375$23,460
NEXT FRIDAY17 Jul 2026 · 9d5 × $107081%$37,500$8,659

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 · 2d · E[net] $23,460/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1080 (primary), 95% survival, breach 5%, $36,375/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1105 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 97% (breach 5% → 3%) for $11,250/mo less (31% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $937.02 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $116510 Jul2d24.3%99+%0%$140$2,100-$34,275$0
Sell 1 × $1165 24.3% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.56 mid)
= $140 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1165)
99+%
Breach risk
0%
POP (stays ≤ $1166.57)
99+%
EV / mo
+$2,091
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median  ·  92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 96% without)  ·  ~0.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $16,161
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
0%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,321
Free roll-up
+$42/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,323 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.94/sh now → $34.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.21/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,16513 Jul 20264d left+$10.12/sh+$1,012
cycle +$1,152
67%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,18313 Jul 20264d left+$1.39/sh+$139
cycle +$279
70%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,32324 Jul 202615d left+$1.59/sh+$159
cycle +$299
82%
surv 78%
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)-94%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)3% covered
Net income (after hedge)$34,042/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1165 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-12,071
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,166.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,153.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,153-1,166.57
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,166.57
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,165.00 (3.2σ)$140$17,475+$77,750+$10,375
+2.5%$1,194.12 (3.6σ)$-2,772$18,057+$78,332+$10,375
+5%$1,223.25 (4.0σ)$-5,685$18,640+$78,915+$10,375
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1165): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$7,564
Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,784 (+$63,059 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,891, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $110510 Jul2d17.9%97%7%$1,675$25,125-$11,250$0
Sell 5 × $1105 17.9% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $3.48 mid)
= $1,675 credit for the 2d cycle → $25,125/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1105)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $1108.47)
97%
EV / mo
+$21,574
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo)  ·  82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,644
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
3%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$14,740
Free roll-up
+$42/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,283 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $46.42/sh now → $32.83 mid-life (likely $28.93–$56.28)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.48/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $1,105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,136 (overshoots $30.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,17524 Jul 202615d left+$25.29/sh+$12,647
cycle +$14,322
[+$7,620…+$14,833] · 85% credit
75%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,10513 Jul 20264d left+$10.83/sh+$5,415
cycle +$7,090
[+$3,190…+$6,793] · 81% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,12313 Jul 20264d left+$2.13/sh+$1,066
cycle +$2,741
[-$2,471…+$2,125] · 64% credit
71%
surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,26324 Jul 202615d left+$1.67/sh+$834
cycle +$2,509
[-$6,411…+$2,635] · 52% credit
82%
surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28324 Jul 202615d left-$2.44/sh-$1,218
cycle +$457
[-$8,886…+$531] · 33% credit
84%
surv 81%
budget: banked $1,675 debit $1,218 (73% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$457 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $30,394/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$25,125/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$24,417/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1105 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,337
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,108.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,093.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,094-1,108.47
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,108.47
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,105.00 (2.4σ)$1,675$28,750+$89,025+$22,850
+2.5%$1,132.62 (2.8σ)$-12,138$29,302+$89,577+$22,850
+5%$1,160.25 (3.2σ)$-25,950$29,855+$90,130+$22,850
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1105): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $25,125/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $108010 Jul2d15.3%95%5%$2,425$36,375$0
Sell 5 × $1080 15.3% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $5.03 mid)
= $2,425 credit for the 2d cycle → $36,375/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1080)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $1085.03)
95%
EV / mo
+$29,524
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median  ·  86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 96% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,115
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
5%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$13,619
Free roll-up
+$42/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,268 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $45.37/sh now → $32.09 mid-life (likely $35.64–$67.75)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$27.24/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $1,080 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,118 (overshoots $38.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15024 Jul 202615d left+$25.09/sh+$12,547
cycle +$14,972
[+$4,465…+$12,529] · 84% credit
75%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,08013 Jul 20264d left+$11.09/sh+$5,543
cycle +$7,968
[+$1,703…+$5,829] · 83% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,09813 Jul 20264d left+$2.40/sh+$1,202
cycle +$3,627
[-$4,649…+$872] · 42% credit
71%
surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,23824 Jul 202615d left+$1.65/sh+$823
cycle +$3,248
[-$10,702…+$128] · 25% credit
82%
surv 79%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,26824 Jul 202615d left-$4.32/sh-$2,159
cycle +$266
[-$14,689…-$3,055] · 7% credit
85%
surv 82%
budget: banked $2,425 debit $2,159 (89% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$266 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $27,769/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$36,375/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$35,667/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1080 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,362
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.21/sh (~25% of the $4.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,085.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,080)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,069.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,069-1,085.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,085.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,080.00 (2.0σ)$2,425$16,500+$76,775+$11,100
+2.5%$1,107.00 (2.4σ)$-11,075$17,040+$77,315+$11,100
+5%$1,134.00 (2.8σ)$-24,575$17,580+$77,855+$11,100
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1080): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $36,375/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $104510 Jul2d11.5%90%20%$4,125$61,875+$25,500$0
Sell 5 × $1045 11.5% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.57 mid)
= $4,125 credit for the 2d cycle → $61,875/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1045)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1053.58)
92%
EV / mo
+$44,595
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median  ·  88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without)  ·  ~2.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $18,760
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$11,399
Free roll-up
+$54/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,248 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $43.90/sh now → $31.05 mid-life (likely $33.24–$65.85)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $8.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$22.80/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $1,045 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,082 (overshoots $37.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,11524 Jul 202615d left+$24.75/sh+$12,374
cycle +$16,499
[+$4,423…+$12,351] · 85% credit
75%
surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,04513 Jul 20264d left+$11.40/sh+$5,702
cycle +$9,827
[+$1,894…+$5,943] · 84% credit
68%
surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,20324 Jul 202615d left+$1.56/sh+$780
cycle +$4,905
[-$10,558…+$367] · 29% credit
83%
surv 79%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,06813 Jul 20264d left+$0.23/sh+$115
cycle +$4,240
[-$6,481…-$192] · 20% credit
71%
surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,24824 Jul 202615d left-$7.16/sh-$3,582
cycle +$543
[-$16,355…-$4,264]
86%
surv 84%
budget: banked $4,125 debit $3,582 (87% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$543 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $23,884/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$61,875/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)+70%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)85% covered
Net income (after hedge)$61,167/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1045 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,437
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.06/sh (~25% of the $8.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,053.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,045)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,034.55Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,035-1,053.58
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,053.58
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,045.00 (1.5σ)$4,125$-0+$60,275-$4,700
+2.5%$1,071.12 (1.9σ)$-8,938$522+$60,797-$4,700
+5%$1,097.25 (2.3σ)$-22,000$1,045+$61,320-$4,700
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1045): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $61,875/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $1032.5010 Jul2d10.2%88%25%$4,900$73,500+$37,125$721
Sell 5 × $1032.50 10.2% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $10.23 mid)
= $4,900 credit for the 2d cycle → $73,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1032.50)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $1042.72)
90%
EV / mo
+$49,478
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median  ·  93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without)  ·  ~2.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $19,012
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$10,438
Free roll-up
+$54/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,245 @ 87% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $43.38/sh now → $30.68 mid-life (likely $32.82–$63.53)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $9.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$20.88/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $1,032 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,067 (overshoots $34.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,10324 Jul 202615d left+$24.61/sh+$12,303
cycle +$17,203
[+$4,849…+$12,113] · 84% credit
75%
surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,03213 Jul 20264d left+$11.51/sh+$5,753
cycle +$10,653
[+$2,246…+$5,688] · 84% credit
68%
surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,19024 Jul 202615d left+$1.52/sh+$758
cycle +$5,658
[-$9,744…+$251] · 27% credit
83%
surv 79%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,05513 Jul 20264d left+$0.35/sh+$174
cycle +$5,074
[-$5,971…-$158] · 21% credit
71%
surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,24524 Jul 202615d left-$8.38/sh-$4,190
cycle +$710
[-$16,297…-$4,912]
87%
surv 85%
budget: banked $4,900 debit $4,190 (86% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$710 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $22,296/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$73,500/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$72,792/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1032.50 is $11 below CC-SS $1043.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$721
… as % of IC ($74,300)1.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,487
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.45/sh (~25% of the $9.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,042.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,032)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,022.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,022-1,042.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,042.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,032.50 (1.3σ)$4,900$-5,725+$54,550-$10,175
+2.5%$1,058.31 (1.7σ)$-8,006$-5,209+$55,066-$10,175
+5%$1,084.12 (2.1σ)$-20,912$-4,693+$55,582-$10,175
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1032.50): -$721
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,501 (+$54,774 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,175, the opportunity cost of earning $73,500/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 9d · E[net] $8,659/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1070 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $37,500/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1120 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 19% → 13%) for $13,167/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $937.02 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $117017 Jul9d24.9%92%17%$930$3,100-$34,400$0
Sell 1 × $1170 24.9% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $9.75 mid)
= $930 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1170)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $1179.75)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,711
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median  ·  92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $17,966
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,008
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,238 @ 74% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $83.92/sh now → $59.38 mid-life (likely $50.37–$88.17)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $9.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$50.08/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $1,170 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,211 (overshoots $40.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,20324 Jul 202612d left+$3.61/sh+$361
cycle +$1,291
[-$206…+$1,286] · 66% credit
71%
surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,17020 Jul 20268d left+$0.71/sh+$71
cycle +$1,001
[-$170…+$906] · 64% credit
67%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,20824 Jul 202612d left+$1.95/sh+$195
cycle +$1,125
[-$434…+$1,094] · 56% credit
71%
surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,23824 Jul 202612d left-$9.13/sh-$913
cycle +$17
[-$1,853…-$150] · 22% credit
74%
surv 66%
budget: banked $930 debit $913 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $12,563/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,100/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)-91%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)4% covered
Net income (after hedge)$35,042/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1170 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-12,100
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.33/sh (~25% of the $9.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,179.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,158.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,158-1,179.75
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,179.75
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,170.00 (1.6σ)$930$18,865+$79,140+$11,665
+2.5%$1,199.25 (1.7σ)$-1,995$19,450+$79,725+$11,665
+5%$1,228.50 (1.9σ)$-4,920$20,035+$80,310+$11,665
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1170): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$7,564
Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,784 (+$63,059 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,891, the opportunity cost of earning $3,100/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $115017 Jul9d22.7%90%21%$5,625$18,750-$18,750$0
Sell 5 × $1150 22.7% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $11.65 mid)
= $5,625 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1150)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1161.65)
91%
EV / mo
+$9,892
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.3 mo [0.2-0.9] median  ·  86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without)  ·  ~0.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,412
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
16%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$23,557
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,225 @ 75% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $82.49/sh now → $58.36 mid-life (likely $50.75–$85.37)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.11/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 470 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,186 (overshoots $35.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,15020 Jul 20268d left+$1.24/sh+$621
cycle +$6,246
[-$965…+$4,193] · 64% credit
67%
surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,18824 Jul 202612d left+$2.35/sh+$1,176
cycle +$6,801
[-$1,916…+$4,732] · 60% credit
71%
surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,19324 Jul 202612d left+$0.14/sh+$70
cycle +$5,695
[-$3,220…+$3,522] · 50% credit
72%
surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,22524 Jul 202612d left-$10.88/sh-$5,441
cycle +$184
[-$10,060…-$2,620] · 14% credit
75%
surv 68%
budget: banked $5,625 debit $5,441 (97% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$184 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $59,352/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$18,750/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)-48%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)26% covered
Net income (after hedge)$18,042/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,475
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.81/sh (~25% of the $11.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,161.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,138-1,161.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,161.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,150.00 (1.4σ)$5,625$56,100+$116,375+$49,300
+2.5%$1,178.75 (1.6σ)$-8,750$56,675+$116,950+$49,300
+5%$1,207.50 (1.8σ)$-23,125$57,250+$117,525+$49,300
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1150): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $18,750/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $112017 Jul9d19.5%87%27%$7,300$24,333-$13,167$0
Sell 5 × $1120 19.5% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $15.00 mid)
= $7,300 credit for the 9d cycle → $24,333/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1120)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $1135.00)
89%
EV / mo
+$11,622
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median  ·  83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without)  ·  ~1.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,229
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$21,120
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,205 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $80.34/sh now → $56.84 mid-life (likely $50.72–$84.42)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $14.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.24/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 573 simulated challenges: the $1,120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,155 (overshoots $35.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15324 Jul 202612d left+$4.57/sh+$2,284
cycle +$9,584
[-$1,283…+$5,231] · 65% credit
71%
surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,12020 Jul 20268d left+$2.01/sh+$1,005
cycle +$8,305
[-$1,091…+$4,274] · 63% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,12320 Jul 20268d left+$0.40/sh+$202
cycle +$7,502
[-$2,137…+$3,240] · 53% credit
67%
surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,16324 Jul 202612d left+$0.71/sh+$357
cycle +$7,657
[-$3,441…+$3,029] · 45% credit
72%
surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,20524 Jul 202612d left-$14.02/sh-$7,009
cycle +$291
[-$12,660…-$4,642] · 11% credit
76%
surv 70%
budget: banked $7,300 debit $7,009 (96% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$291 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $53,529/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$24,333/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$23,625/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1120 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,475
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.65/sh (~25% of the $14.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,135.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,108.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,109-1,135.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,135.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,120.00 (1.2σ)$7,300$42,175+$102,450+$35,975
+2.5%$1,148.00 (1.4σ)$-6,700$42,735+$103,010+$35,975
+5%$1,176.00 (1.6σ)$-20,700$43,295+$103,570+$35,975
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1120): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $24,333/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $107017 Jul9d14.2%81%32%$11,250$37,500$0
Sell 5 × $1070 14.2% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $22.98 mid)
= $11,250 credit for the 9d cycle → $37,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1070)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $1092.97)
84%
EV / mo
+$14,673
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median  ·  84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without)  ·  ~2.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $21,312
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,902
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,193 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $76.75/sh now → $54.30 mid-life (likely $56.51–$88.21)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $22.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.80/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 956 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,107 (overshoots $36.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,09824 Jul 202612d left+$7.22/sh+$3,611
cycle +$14,861
[-$826…+$5,002] · 67% credit
71%
surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,07020 Jul 20268d left+$3.20/sh+$1,598
cycle +$12,848
[-$1,209…+$3,248] · 56% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,07320 Jul 20268d left+$1.60/sh+$798
cycle +$12,048
[-$2,173…+$2,358] · 45% credit
67%
surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,11324 Jul 202612d left+$1.55/sh+$777
cycle +$12,027
[-$4,160…+$1,814] · 35% credit
72%
surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,19324 Jul 202612d left-$22.47/sh-$11,233
cycle +$17
[-$19,596…-$11,665] · 0% credit
80%
surv 76%
budget: banked $11,250 debit $11,233 (100% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $39,796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$37,500/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)+3%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$36,792/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1070 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,512
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.62/sh (~25% of the $22.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,092.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,059.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,059-1,092.97
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,092.97
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,070.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$11,250$20,125+$80,400+$14,925
+2.5%$1,096.75 (1.1σ)$-2,125$20,660+$80,935+$14,925
+5%$1,123.50 (1.2σ)$-15,500$21,195+$81,470+$14,925
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1070): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $37,500/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $98017 Jul9d4.6%64%77%$23,475$78,250+$40,750$8,396
Sell 5 × $980 4.6% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $47.98 mid)
= $23,475 credit for the 9d cycle → $78,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $980)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays ≤ $1027.97)
74%
EV / mo
+$18,348
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo)  ·  92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without)  ·  ~3.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $23,404
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
62%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,393
Free roll-up
+$19/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,213 @ 90% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $70.29/sh now → $49.74 mid-life (likely $64.55–$88.81)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $46.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,854 simulated challenges: the $980 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $1,013 (overshoots $33.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,00324 Jul 202612d left+$10.52/sh+$5,261
cycle +$28,736
[+$92…+$3,166] · 76% credit
70%
surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$98020 Jul 20268d left+$5.03/sh+$2,513
cycle +$25,988
[-$1,109…+$1,122] · 42% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$98820 Jul 20268d left+$1.14/sh+$569
cycle +$24,044
[-$3,480…-$1,066] · 17% credit
68%
surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,02824 Jul 202612d left+$1.13/sh+$563
cycle +$24,038
[-$5,564…-$2,027] · 14% credit
73%
surv 64%
SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,21324 Jul 202612d left-$37.93/sh-$18,967
cycle +$4,508
[-$32,686…-$24,184]
90%
surv 90%
budget: banked $23,475 debit $18,967 (81% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,508 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $14,753/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$78,250/mo
vs 50% target ($36,375/mo)+115%
vs normal income ($72,750/mo)108% covered
Net income (after hedge)$77,542/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $980 is $64 below CC-SS $1043.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,396
… as % of IC ($74,300)11.3%
… as % of ML ($419,300)2.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-60,787
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $11.74/sh (~25% of the $46.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,027.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $980)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $970.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$970-1,027.97
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,027.97
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$980.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$23,475$-14,450+$45,825+$7,150
+2.5%$1,004.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$11,225$-13,960+$46,315-$5,100
+5%$1,029.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,025$-13,470+$46,805-$17,350
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $980): -$8,396
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,176 (+$47,099 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,850, the opportunity cost of earning $78,250/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (164 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 164 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.040 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$55,495 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $4,674

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10802d10 Jul 2026$4.855/5$36,375$35,66795%95%+$29,524-$00.0%$-2,355 (vs do-nothing $-7,029)
$10752d10 Jul 2026$5.155/5$38,625$37,91794%95%+$30,809-$00.0%$-2,205 (vs do-nothing $-6,879)
$10702d10 Jul 2026$5.605/5$42,000$41,29294%95%+$33,083-$00.0%$-1,980 (vs do-nothing $-6,654)
$10652d10 Jul 2026$6.005/5$45,000$44,29293%94%+$34,824-$00.0%$-1,780 (vs do-nothing $-6,454)
$10602d10 Jul 2026$6.504/5$39,000$46,45493%94%+$29,708-$00.0%$-289 (vs do-nothing $-4,964)
$10552d10 Jul 2026$7.054/5$42,300$49,75492%93%+$31,693-$00.0%$-69 (vs do-nothing $-4,744)
$1052.502d10 Jul 2026$7.304/5$43,800$51,25491%93%+$32,467-$00.0%$31 (vs do-nothing $-4,644)
$10502d10 Jul 2026$7.704/5$46,200$53,65491%92%+$34,091-$00.0%$191 (vs do-nothing $-4,484)
$1047.502d10 Jul 2026$7.904/5$47,400$54,85491%92%+$34,462-$00.0%$271 (vs do-nothing $-4,404)
$10452d10 Jul 2026$8.253/5$37,125$52,74290%92%+$26,757-$00.0%$1,477 (vs do-nothing $-3,198)
$1042.502d10 Jul 2026$8.553/5$38,475$54,09290%91%+$27,398-$00.0%$1,194 (vs do-nothing $-3,480)
$10402d10 Jul 2026$8.953/5$40,275$55,89289%91%+$28,442-$00.0%$564 (vs do-nothing $-4,110)
$1037.502d10 Jul 2026$8.953/5$40,275$55,89289%91%+$27,636-$00.0%$-186 (vs do-nothing $-4,860)
Show 151 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 151.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10352d10 Jul 2026$9.653/5$43,425$59,04288%90%+$29,927-$00.0%$-726 (vs do-nothing $-5,400)
$1032.502d10 Jul 2026$9.803/5$44,100$59,71788%90%+$29,687-$4320.6%$-1,431 (vs do-nothing $-6,105)
$10302d10 Jul 2026$10.453/5$47,025$62,64287%89%+$31,637-$9871.3%$-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-6,660)
$1027.502d10 Jul 2026$10.503/5$47,250$62,86787%89%+$30,826-$1,7222.3%$-2,721 (vs do-nothing $-7,395)
$10252d10 Jul 2026$10.903/5$49,050$64,66786%89%+$31,523-$2,3523.2%$-3,351 (vs do-nothing $-8,025)
$1022.502d10 Jul 2026$11.503/5$51,750$67,36785%88%+$33,052-$2,9223.9%$-3,921 (vs do-nothing $-8,595)
$10202d10 Jul 2026$11.853/5$53,325$68,94285%88%+$33,382-$3,5674.8%$-4,566 (vs do-nothing $-9,240)
$1017.502d10 Jul 2026$12.402/5$37,200$60,97984%87%+$23,025-$2,7683.7%$-1,876 (vs do-nothing $-6,550)
$10455d13 Jul 2026$12.305/5$36,900$36,19283%86%+$15,133-$00.0%$1,370 (vs do-nothing $-3,304)
$10152d10 Jul 2026$13.052/5$39,150$62,92983%87%+$24,042-$3,1384.2%$-2,246 (vs do-nothing $-6,920)
$1012.502d10 Jul 2026$13.352/5$40,050$63,82983%86%+$23,954-$3,5784.8%$-2,686 (vs do-nothing $-7,360)
$10405d13 Jul 2026$13.105/5$39,300$38,59282%85%+$15,501-$00.0%$-101 (vs do-nothing $-4,775)
$10102d10 Jul 2026$13.952/5$41,850$65,62982%86%+$24,711-$3,9585.3%$-3,066 (vs do-nothing $-7,740)
$10355d13 Jul 2026$14.105/5$42,300$41,59281%84%+$16,311-$00.0%$-2,101 (vs do-nothing $-6,775)
$1007.502d10 Jul 2026$14.502/5$43,500$67,27981%85%+$25,260-$4,3485.9%$-3,456 (vs do-nothing $-8,130)
$10709d17 Jul 2026$22.505/5$37,500$36,79281%84%+$14,673-$00.0%$6,470 (vs do-nothing +$1,796)
$10052d10 Jul 2026$15.102/5$45,300$69,07980%85%+$25,900-$4,7286.4%$-3,836 (vs do-nothing $-8,510)
$10305d13 Jul 2026$14.555/5$43,650$42,94280%84%+$15,302-$00.0%$-4,376 (vs do-nothing $-9,050)
$10659d17 Jul 2026$23.305/5$38,833$38,12580%84%+$14,668-$00.0%$6,870 (vs do-nothing +$2,196)
$1002.502d10 Jul 2026$15.552/5$46,650$70,42980%84%+$26,029-$5,1386.9%$-4,246 (vs do-nothing $-8,920)
$10609d17 Jul 2026$24.205/5$40,333$39,62579%83%+$14,759-$00.0%$7,320 (vs do-nothing +$2,646)
$10255d13 Jul 2026$15.604/5$37,440$44,89479%83%+$12,734-$1,2561.7%$-4,146 (vs do-nothing $-8,820)
$10002d10 Jul 2026$16.402/5$49,200$72,97979%84%+$27,297-$5,4687.4%$-4,576 (vs do-nothing $-9,250)
$10559d17 Jul 2026$25.555/5$42,583$41,87578%82%+$15,528-$00.0%$7,995 (vs do-nothing +$3,321)
$10205d13 Jul 2026$17.004/5$40,800$48,25478%82%+$13,918-$2,6963.6%$-5,586 (vs do-nothing $-10,260)
$10509d17 Jul 2026$26.805/5$44,667$43,95878%82%+$16,054-$00.0%$8,620 (vs do-nothing +$3,946)
$9952d10 Jul 2026$17.552/5$52,650$76,42977%83%+$27,988-$6,2388.4%$-5,346 (vs do-nothing $-10,020)
$10459d17 Jul 2026$27.804/5$37,067$44,52177%81%+$12,869-$00.0%$8,231 (vs do-nothing +$3,556)
$10155d13 Jul 2026$17.704/5$42,480$49,93477%81%+$13,266-$4,4165.9%$-7,306 (vs do-nothing $-11,980)
$10409d17 Jul 2026$29.054/5$38,733$46,18876%81%+$13,163-$00.0%$7,234 (vs do-nothing +$2,560)
$10105d13 Jul 2026$18.804/5$45,120$52,57475%80%+$13,410-$5,9768.0%$-8,866 (vs do-nothing $-13,540)
$9902d10 Jul 2026$18.852/5$56,550$80,32975%82%+$28,850-$6,9789.4%$-6,086 (vs do-nothing $-10,760)
$10359d17 Jul 2026$29.804/5$39,733$47,18875%80%+$12,723-$00.0%$5,534 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$104012d20 Jul 2026$30.905/5$38,625$37,91775%80%+$10,146-$00.0%$8,799 (vs do-nothing +$4,125)
$10055d13 Jul 2026$19.904/5$47,760$55,21475%80%+$15,583-$7,53610.1%$-10,426 (vs do-nothing $-15,100)
$105516d24 Jul 2026$39.155/5$36,703$35,99574%80%+$10,179-$00.0%$14,795 (vs do-nothing +$10,121)
$10309d17 Jul 2026$31.054/5$41,400$48,85474%80%+$12,880-$00.0%$4,034 (vs do-nothing $-640)
$103512d20 Jul 2026$31.255/5$39,062$38,35474%79%+$9,121-$00.0%$6,474 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$105016d24 Jul 2026$40.555/5$38,016$37,30774%79%+$10,379-$00.0%$15,495 (vs do-nothing +$10,821)
$9852d10 Jul 2026$20.302/5$60,900$84,67973%81%+$29,848-$7,68810.3%$-6,796 (vs do-nothing $-11,470)
$10005d13 Jul 2026$21.753/5$39,150$54,76773%79%+$13,014-$6,5978.9%$-7,596 (vs do-nothing $-12,270)
$104516d24 Jul 2026$42.005/5$39,375$38,66773%79%+$10,587-$00.0%$16,220 (vs do-nothing +$11,546)
$103012d20 Jul 2026$32.655/5$40,812$40,10473%79%+$9,346-$00.0%$4,674 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$103014d22 Jul 2026$34.505/5$36,964$36,25672%79%+$8,244-$00.0%$5,599 (vs do-nothing +$925)
$104016d24 Jul 2026$43.455/5$40,734$40,02672%79%+$10,753-$00.0%$15,074 (vs do-nothing +$10,400)
$102512d20 Jul 2026$34.855/5$43,562$42,85472%78%+$10,507-$00.0%$3,274 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$9955d13 Jul 2026$22.653/5$40,770$56,38772%78%+$12,490-$7,82710.5%$-8,826 (vs do-nothing $-13,500)
$102514d22 Jul 2026$36.105/5$38,679$37,97072%78%+$8,518-$00.0%$3,899 (vs do-nothing $-775)
$103516d24 Jul 2026$44.055/5$41,297$40,58972%78%+$10,080-$00.0%$12,874 (vs do-nothing +$8,200)
$9802d10 Jul 2026$21.602/5$64,800$88,57971%79%+$30,037-$8,42811.3%$-7,536 (vs do-nothing $-12,210)
$102012d20 Jul 2026$36.005/5$45,000$44,29271%78%+$10,290-$00.0%$1,349 (vs do-nothing $-3,325)
$103016d24 Jul 2026$45.655/5$42,797$42,08971%78%+$10,302-$00.0%$11,174 (vs do-nothing +$6,500)
$102014d22 Jul 2026$37.355/5$40,018$39,31071%78%+$8,306-$00.0%$2,024 (vs do-nothing $-2,650)
$9905d13 Jul 2026$25.053/5$45,090$60,70770%78%+$14,517-$8,60711.6%$-9,606 (vs do-nothing $-14,280)
$10109d17 Jul 2026$37.003/5$37,000$52,61770%77%+$10,527-$00.0%$-21 (vs do-nothing $-4,695)
$101512d20 Jul 2026$37.154/5$37,150$44,60470%77%+$8,005-$00.0%$474 (vs do-nothing $-4,200)
$102516d24 Jul 2026$47.305/5$44,344$43,63570%77%+$10,527-$00.0%$9,499 (vs do-nothing +$4,825)
$101514d22 Jul 2026$39.305/5$42,107$41,39970%77%+$8,735-$00.0%$499 (vs do-nothing $-4,175)
$1022.5016d24 Jul 2026$48.155/5$45,141$44,43270%77%+$10,646-$00.0%$8,674 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)
$9752d10 Jul 2026$23.402/5$70,200$93,97969%78%+$31,390-$9,06812.2%$-8,176 (vs do-nothing $-12,850)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-08 01:49