5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1043.74 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $419,300 | (ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $72,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $708/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-60,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $1080 | 95% | $36,375 | $23,460 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $1070 | 81% | $37,500 | $8,659 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $1165 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.3% | 99+% | 0% | $140 | $2,100 | -$34,275 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $1165 24.3% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.56 mid) = $140 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1165) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $1166.57) 99+% EV / mo +$2,091 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 96% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,161 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,321 Free roll-up +$42/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,323 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $48.94/sh now → $34.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1165 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,166.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1165): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$7,564 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,784 (+$63,059 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,891, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $1105 | 10 Jul | 2d | 17.9% | 97% | 7% | $1,675 | $25,125 | -$11,250 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1105 17.9% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $3.48 mid) = $1,675 credit for the 2d cycle → $25,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1105) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $1108.47) 97% EV / mo +$21,574 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,644 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,740 Free roll-up +$42/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,283 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $46.42/sh now → $32.83 mid-life (likely $28.93–$56.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $1,105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,136 (overshoots $30.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1105 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $1,108.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1105): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $25,125/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $1080 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.3% | 95% | 5% | $2,425 | $36,375 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1080 15.3% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $5.03 mid) = $2,425 credit for the 2d cycle → $36,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1080) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $1085.03) 95% EV / mo +$29,524 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 96% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,115 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,619 Free roll-up +$42/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,268 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $45.37/sh now → $32.09 mid-life (likely $35.64–$67.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$27.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $1,080 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,118 (overshoots $38.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1080 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.21/sh (~25% of the $4.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,085.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,080)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1080): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $36,375/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $1045 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.5% | 90% | 20% | $4,125 | $61,875 | +$25,500 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1045 11.5% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.57 mid) = $4,125 credit for the 2d cycle → $61,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1045) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $1053.58) 92% EV / mo +$44,595 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,760 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,399 Free roll-up +$54/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,248 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $43.90/sh now → $31.05 mid-life (likely $33.24–$65.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$22.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $1,045 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,082 (overshoots $37.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1045 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.06/sh (~25% of the $8.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,053.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,045)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1045): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $61,875/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $1032.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.2% | 88% | 25% | $4,900 | $73,500 | +$37,125 | $721 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1032.50 10.2% OTM over spot $937.02 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $10.23 mid) = $4,900 credit for the 2d cycle → $73,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1032.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $1042.72) 90% EV / mo +$49,478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,012 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,438 Free roll-up +$54/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,245 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $43.38/sh now → $30.68 mid-life (likely $32.82–$63.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$20.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $1,032 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,067 (overshoots $34.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $1032.50 is $11 below CC-SS $1043.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.45/sh (~25% of the $9.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,042.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,032)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1032.50): -$721 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,501 (+$54,774 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,175, the opportunity cost of earning $73,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $1170 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.9% | 92% | 17% | $930 | $3,100 | -$34,400 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $1170 24.9% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $9.75 mid) = $930 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1170) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $1179.75) 92% EV / mo +$1,711 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,966 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,008 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,238 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $83.92/sh now → $59.38 mid-life (likely $50.37–$88.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$50.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $1,170 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,211 (overshoots $40.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1170 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.33/sh (~25% of the $9.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,179.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1170): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$7,564 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,784 (+$63,059 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,891, the opportunity cost of earning $3,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $1150 | 17 Jul | 9d | 22.7% | 90% | 21% | $5,625 | $18,750 | -$18,750 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1150 22.7% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $11.65 mid) = $5,625 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1150) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $1161.65) 91% EV / mo +$9,892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.2-0.9] median · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,412 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,557 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,225 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $82.49/sh now → $58.36 mid-life (likely $50.75–$85.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 470 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,186 (overshoots $35.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.81/sh (~25% of the $11.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,161.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1150): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $18,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $1120 | 17 Jul | 9d | 19.5% | 87% | 27% | $7,300 | $24,333 | -$13,167 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1120 19.5% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $15.00 mid) = $7,300 credit for the 9d cycle → $24,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1120) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $1135.00) 89% EV / mo +$11,622 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,229 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$21,120 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,205 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $80.34/sh now → $56.84 mid-life (likely $50.72–$84.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $14.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 573 simulated challenges: the $1,120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,155 (overshoots $35.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1120 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.65/sh (~25% of the $14.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,135.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1120): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $24,333/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $1070 | 17 Jul | 9d | 14.2% | 81% | 32% | $11,250 | $37,500 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1070 14.2% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $22.98 mid) = $11,250 credit for the 9d cycle → $37,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1070) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $1092.97) 84% EV / mo +$14,673 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,312 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,902 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,193 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $76.75/sh now → $54.30 mid-life (likely $56.51–$88.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $22.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 956 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,107 (overshoots $36.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1070 is at/above CC-SS $1043.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.62/sh (~25% of the $22.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,092.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1070): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$55,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,454, the opportunity cost of earning $37,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $980 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.6% | 64% | 77% | $23,475 | $78,250 | +$40,750 | $8,396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $980 4.6% OTM over spot $937.02 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $47.98 mid) = $23,475 credit for the 9d cycle → $78,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $980) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $1027.97) 74% EV / mo +$18,348 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,404 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,393 Free roll-up +$19/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,213 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $70.29/sh now → $49.74 mid-life (likely $64.55–$88.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $46.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,854 simulated challenges: the $980 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $1,013 (overshoots $33.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $980 is $64 below CC-SS $1043.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $11.74/sh (~25% of the $46.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,027.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $980)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1043.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,495 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $980): -$8,396 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,176 (+$47,099 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,850, the opportunity cost of earning $78,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 164 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.040 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$55,495 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,674
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1080 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 5/5 | $36,375 | $35,667 | 95% | 95% | +$29,524 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,355 (vs do-nothing $-7,029) |
| $1075 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $38,625 | $37,917 | 94% | 95% | +$30,809 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,205 (vs do-nothing $-6,879) |
| $1070 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 5/5 | $42,000 | $41,292 | 94% | 95% | +$33,083 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,980 (vs do-nothing $-6,654) |
| $1065 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 5/5 | $45,000 | $44,292 | 93% | 94% | +$34,824 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,780 (vs do-nothing $-6,454) |
| $1060 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $39,000 | $46,454 | 93% | 94% | +$29,708 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-289 (vs do-nothing $-4,964) |
| $1055 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 4/5 | $42,300 | $49,754 | 92% | 93% | +$31,693 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-69 (vs do-nothing $-4,744) |
| $1052.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 4/5 | $43,800 | $51,254 | 91% | 93% | +$32,467 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31 (vs do-nothing $-4,644) |
| $1050 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 4/5 | $46,200 | $53,654 | 91% | 92% | +$34,091 | -$0 | 0.0% | $191 (vs do-nothing $-4,484) |
| $1047.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 4/5 | $47,400 | $54,854 | 91% | 92% | +$34,462 | -$0 | 0.0% | $271 (vs do-nothing $-4,404) |
| $1045 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/5 | $37,125 | $52,742 | 90% | 92% | +$26,757 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,477 (vs do-nothing $-3,198) |
| $1042.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 3/5 | $38,475 | $54,092 | 90% | 91% | +$27,398 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,194 (vs do-nothing $-3,480) |
| $1040 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/5 | $40,275 | $55,892 | 89% | 91% | +$28,442 | -$0 | 0.0% | $564 (vs do-nothing $-4,110) |
| $1037.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/5 | $40,275 | $55,892 | 89% | 91% | +$27,636 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-186 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 151.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1035 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 3/5 | $43,425 | $59,042 | 88% | 90% | +$29,927 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-726 (vs do-nothing $-5,400) |
| $1032.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $44,100 | $59,717 | 88% | 90% | +$29,687 | -$432 | 0.6% | $-1,431 (vs do-nothing $-6,105) |
| $1030 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 3/5 | $47,025 | $62,642 | 87% | 89% | +$31,637 | -$987 | 1.3% | $-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-6,660) |
| $1027.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.50 | 3/5 | $47,250 | $62,867 | 87% | 89% | +$30,826 | -$1,722 | 2.3% | $-2,721 (vs do-nothing $-7,395) |
| $1025 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.90 | 3/5 | $49,050 | $64,667 | 86% | 89% | +$31,523 | -$2,352 | 3.2% | $-3,351 (vs do-nothing $-8,025) |
| $1022.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.50 | 3/5 | $51,750 | $67,367 | 85% | 88% | +$33,052 | -$2,922 | 3.9% | $-3,921 (vs do-nothing $-8,595) |
| $1020 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.85 | 3/5 | $53,325 | $68,942 | 85% | 88% | +$33,382 | -$3,567 | 4.8% | $-4,566 (vs do-nothing $-9,240) |
| $1017.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 2/5 | $37,200 | $60,979 | 84% | 87% | +$23,025 | -$2,768 | 3.7% | $-1,876 (vs do-nothing $-6,550) |
| $1045 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 5/5 | $36,900 | $36,192 | 83% | 86% | +$15,133 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,370 (vs do-nothing $-3,304) |
| $1015 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.05 | 2/5 | $39,150 | $62,929 | 83% | 87% | +$24,042 | -$3,138 | 4.2% | $-2,246 (vs do-nothing $-6,920) |
| $1012.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.35 | 2/5 | $40,050 | $63,829 | 83% | 86% | +$23,954 | -$3,578 | 4.8% | $-2,686 (vs do-nothing $-7,360) |
| $1040 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $13.10 | 5/5 | $39,300 | $38,592 | 82% | 85% | +$15,501 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-101 (vs do-nothing $-4,775) |
| $1010 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.95 | 2/5 | $41,850 | $65,629 | 82% | 86% | +$24,711 | -$3,958 | 5.3% | $-3,066 (vs do-nothing $-7,740) |
| $1035 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 5/5 | $42,300 | $41,592 | 81% | 84% | +$16,311 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,101 (vs do-nothing $-6,775) |
| $1007.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $14.50 | 2/5 | $43,500 | $67,279 | 81% | 85% | +$25,260 | -$4,348 | 5.9% | $-3,456 (vs do-nothing $-8,130) |
| $1070 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $22.50 | 5/5 | $37,500 | $36,792 | 81% | 84% | +$14,673 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,470 (vs do-nothing +$1,796) |
| $1005 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $15.10 | 2/5 | $45,300 | $69,079 | 80% | 85% | +$25,900 | -$4,728 | 6.4% | $-3,836 (vs do-nothing $-8,510) |
| $1030 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $14.55 | 5/5 | $43,650 | $42,942 | 80% | 84% | +$15,302 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-4,376 (vs do-nothing $-9,050) |
| $1065 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $23.30 | 5/5 | $38,833 | $38,125 | 80% | 84% | +$14,668 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,870 (vs do-nothing +$2,196) |
| $1002.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $15.55 | 2/5 | $46,650 | $70,429 | 80% | 84% | +$26,029 | -$5,138 | 6.9% | $-4,246 (vs do-nothing $-8,920) |
| $1060 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $24.20 | 5/5 | $40,333 | $39,625 | 79% | 83% | +$14,759 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,320 (vs do-nothing +$2,646) |
| $1025 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $15.60 | 4/5 | $37,440 | $44,894 | 79% | 83% | +$12,734 | -$1,256 | 1.7% | $-4,146 (vs do-nothing $-8,820) |
| $1000 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 2/5 | $49,200 | $72,979 | 79% | 84% | +$27,297 | -$5,468 | 7.4% | $-4,576 (vs do-nothing $-9,250) |
| $1055 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $25.55 | 5/5 | $42,583 | $41,875 | 78% | 82% | +$15,528 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,995 (vs do-nothing +$3,321) |
| $1020 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $17.00 | 4/5 | $40,800 | $48,254 | 78% | 82% | +$13,918 | -$2,696 | 3.6% | $-5,586 (vs do-nothing $-10,260) |
| $1050 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $26.80 | 5/5 | $44,667 | $43,958 | 78% | 82% | +$16,054 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,620 (vs do-nothing +$3,946) |
| $995 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $17.55 | 2/5 | $52,650 | $76,429 | 77% | 83% | +$27,988 | -$6,238 | 8.4% | $-5,346 (vs do-nothing $-10,020) |
| $1045 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $27.80 | 4/5 | $37,067 | $44,521 | 77% | 81% | +$12,869 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,231 (vs do-nothing +$3,556) |
| $1015 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $17.70 | 4/5 | $42,480 | $49,934 | 77% | 81% | +$13,266 | -$4,416 | 5.9% | $-7,306 (vs do-nothing $-11,980) |
| $1040 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $29.05 | 4/5 | $38,733 | $46,188 | 76% | 81% | +$13,163 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,234 (vs do-nothing +$2,560) |
| $1010 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $18.80 | 4/5 | $45,120 | $52,574 | 75% | 80% | +$13,410 | -$5,976 | 8.0% | $-8,866 (vs do-nothing $-13,540) |
| $990 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $18.85 | 2/5 | $56,550 | $80,329 | 75% | 82% | +$28,850 | -$6,978 | 9.4% | $-6,086 (vs do-nothing $-10,760) |
| $1035 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $29.80 | 4/5 | $39,733 | $47,188 | 75% | 80% | +$12,723 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,534 (vs do-nothing +$860) |
| $1040 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $30.90 | 5/5 | $38,625 | $37,917 | 75% | 80% | +$10,146 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,799 (vs do-nothing +$4,125) |
| $1005 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $19.90 | 4/5 | $47,760 | $55,214 | 75% | 80% | +$15,583 | -$7,536 | 10.1% | $-10,426 (vs do-nothing $-15,100) |
| $1055 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $39.15 | 5/5 | $36,703 | $35,995 | 74% | 80% | +$10,179 | -$0 | 0.0% | $14,795 (vs do-nothing +$10,121) |
| $1030 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $31.05 | 4/5 | $41,400 | $48,854 | 74% | 80% | +$12,880 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,034 (vs do-nothing $-640) |
| $1035 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $31.25 | 5/5 | $39,062 | $38,354 | 74% | 79% | +$9,121 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,474 (vs do-nothing +$1,800) |
| $1050 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $40.55 | 5/5 | $38,016 | $37,307 | 74% | 79% | +$10,379 | -$0 | 0.0% | $15,495 (vs do-nothing +$10,821) |
| $985 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $20.30 | 2/5 | $60,900 | $84,679 | 73% | 81% | +$29,848 | -$7,688 | 10.3% | $-6,796 (vs do-nothing $-11,470) |
| $1000 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $21.75 | 3/5 | $39,150 | $54,767 | 73% | 79% | +$13,014 | -$6,597 | 8.9% | $-7,596 (vs do-nothing $-12,270) |
| $1045 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $42.00 | 5/5 | $39,375 | $38,667 | 73% | 79% | +$10,587 | -$0 | 0.0% | $16,220 (vs do-nothing +$11,546) |
| $1030 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $32.65 | 5/5 | $40,812 | $40,104 | 73% | 79% | +$9,346 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,674 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $1030 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $34.50 | 5/5 | $36,964 | $36,256 | 72% | 79% | +$8,244 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,599 (vs do-nothing +$925) |
| $1040 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $43.45 | 5/5 | $40,734 | $40,026 | 72% | 79% | +$10,753 | -$0 | 0.0% | $15,074 (vs do-nothing +$10,400) |
| $1025 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $34.85 | 5/5 | $43,562 | $42,854 | 72% | 78% | +$10,507 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,274 (vs do-nothing $-1,400) |
| $995 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $22.65 | 3/5 | $40,770 | $56,387 | 72% | 78% | +$12,490 | -$7,827 | 10.5% | $-8,826 (vs do-nothing $-13,500) |
| $1025 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $36.10 | 5/5 | $38,679 | $37,970 | 72% | 78% | +$8,518 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,899 (vs do-nothing $-775) |
| $1035 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $44.05 | 5/5 | $41,297 | $40,589 | 72% | 78% | +$10,080 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,874 (vs do-nothing +$8,200) |
| $980 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $21.60 | 2/5 | $64,800 | $88,579 | 71% | 79% | +$30,037 | -$8,428 | 11.3% | $-7,536 (vs do-nothing $-12,210) |
| $1020 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $36.00 | 5/5 | $45,000 | $44,292 | 71% | 78% | +$10,290 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,349 (vs do-nothing $-3,325) |
| $1030 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $45.65 | 5/5 | $42,797 | $42,089 | 71% | 78% | +$10,302 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,174 (vs do-nothing +$6,500) |
| $1020 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $37.35 | 5/5 | $40,018 | $39,310 | 71% | 78% | +$8,306 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,024 (vs do-nothing $-2,650) |
| $990 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $25.05 | 3/5 | $45,090 | $60,707 | 70% | 78% | +$14,517 | -$8,607 | 11.6% | $-9,606 (vs do-nothing $-14,280) |
| $1010 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $37.00 | 3/5 | $37,000 | $52,617 | 70% | 77% | +$10,527 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-21 (vs do-nothing $-4,695) |
| $1015 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $37.15 | 4/5 | $37,150 | $44,604 | 70% | 77% | +$8,005 | -$0 | 0.0% | $474 (vs do-nothing $-4,200) |
| $1025 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $47.30 | 5/5 | $44,344 | $43,635 | 70% | 77% | +$10,527 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,499 (vs do-nothing +$4,825) |
| $1015 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $39.30 | 5/5 | $42,107 | $41,399 | 70% | 77% | +$8,735 | -$0 | 0.0% | $499 (vs do-nothing $-4,175) |
| $1022.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $48.15 | 5/5 | $45,141 | $44,432 | 70% | 77% | +$10,646 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,674 (vs do-nothing +$4,000) |
| $975 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $23.40 | 2/5 | $70,200 | $93,979 | 69% | 78% | +$31,390 | -$9,068 | 12.2% | $-8,176 (vs do-nothing $-12,850) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.