5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1050.09 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $419,300 | (ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $65,464/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $708/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-70,950 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $1075 | 95% | $33,000 | $23,097 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $1070 | 83% | $33,750 | $7,577 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $1150 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.6% | 99% | 2% | $150 | $2,250 | -$30,750 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $1150 24.6% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.57 mid) = $150 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1150) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $1151.58) 99% EV / mo +$2,082 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.5] median · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 91% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,674 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,503 Free roll-up +$39/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,297 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $51.66/sh now → $36.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,151.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1150): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$3,266 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,514 (+$69,436 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-816, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $1100 | 10 Jul | 2d | 19.2% | 97% | 6% | $1,550 | $23,250 | -$9,750 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1100 19.2% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $3.23 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 2d cycle → $23,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1100) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $1103.22) 97% EV / mo +$20,183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,079 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,922 Free roll-up +$51/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,262 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $49.41/sh now → $34.94 mid-life (likely $34.03–$88.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $1,100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,139 (overshoots $39.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1100 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,103.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1100): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $23,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $1075 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.5% | 95% | 4% | $2,200 | $33,000 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1075 16.5% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $4.65 mid) = $2,200 credit for the 2d cycle → $33,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1075) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $1079.65) 96% EV / mo +$27,112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,628 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,875 Free roll-up +$51/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,252 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $48.29/sh now → $34.15 mid-life (likely $32.31–$55.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 116 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,104 (overshoots $28.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1075 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.10/sh (~25% of the $4.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,079.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,075)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1075): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $33,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $1032.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.9% | 90% | 20% | $4,275 | $64,125 | +$31,125 | $4,518 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1032.50 11.9% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.85 mid) = $4,275 credit for the 2d cycle → $64,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1032.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $1041.35) 92% EV / mo +$46,426 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,568 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,125 Free roll-up +$51/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,224 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $46.38/sh now → $32.80 mid-life (likely $35.60–$77.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $1,032 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,071 (overshoots $38.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $1032.50 is $18 below CC-SS $1050.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.14/sh (~25% of the $8.55 collected) or spot ≥ $1,041.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,032)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1032.50): -$4,518 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,298 (+$61,652 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,600, the opportunity cost of earning $64,125/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $1030 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.6% | 90% | 21% | $4,450 | $66,750 | +$33,750 | $5,593 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1030 11.6% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $9.20 mid) = $4,450 credit for the 2d cycle → $66,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1030) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $1039.20) 91% EV / mo +$47,882 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.2-0.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,285 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,910 Free roll-up +$51/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,227 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $46.27/sh now → $32.72 mid-life (likely $34.39–$67.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $1,030 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,063 (overshoots $33.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $1030 is $20 below CC-SS $1050.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.23/sh (~25% of the $8.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,039.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,030)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1030): -$5,593 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,373 (+$60,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,675, the opportunity cost of earning $66,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $1150 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.6% | 92% | 16% | $990 | $3,300 | -$30,450 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $1150 24.6% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $10.32 mid) = $990 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1150) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $1160.33) 93% EV / mo +$2,107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,469 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,002 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,212 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $84.69/sh now → $59.92 mid-life (likely $52.21–$86.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$50.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,189 (overshoots $38.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.48/sh (~25% of the $9.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,160.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1150): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$3,266 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,514 (+$69,436 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-816, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $1135 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.0% | 91% | 19% | $5,700 | $19,000 | -$14,750 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1135 23.0% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $11.80 mid) = $5,700 credit for the 9d cycle → $19,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1135) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $1146.80) 92% EV / mo +$11,649 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,326 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,870 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,202 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $83.59/sh now → $59.14 mid-life (likely $51.43–$86.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,173 (overshoots $38.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1135 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.85/sh (~25% of the $11.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,146.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1135): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $19,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $1120 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.3% | 89% | 24% | $6,525 | $21,750 | -$12,000 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1120 21.3% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $13.50 mid) = $6,525 credit for the 9d cycle → $21,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1120) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $1133.50) 90% EV / mo +$11,087 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,381 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,654 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,197 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $82.48/sh now → $58.36 mid-life (likely $54.54–$86.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$45.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $1,120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,159 (overshoots $38.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1120 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.26/sh (~25% of the $13.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,133.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1120): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $21,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $1070 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.9% | 83% | 28% | $10,125 | $33,750 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1070 15.9% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $20.73 mid) = $10,125 credit for the 9d cycle → $33,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1070) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $1090.72) 86% EV / mo +$14,514 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,670 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,752 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,177 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $78.80/sh now → $55.75 mid-life (likely $56.02–$88.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,108 (overshoots $38.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1070 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.06/sh (~25% of the $20.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,090.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1070): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $33,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $990 | 17 Jul | 9d | 7.2% | 69% | 66% | $19,800 | $66,000 | +$32,250 | $10,243 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $990 7.2% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $40.12 mid) = $19,800 credit for the 9d cycle → $66,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $990) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $1030.12) 77% EV / mo +$19,659 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,776 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,993 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,217 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $72.91/sh now → $51.59 mid-life (likely $61.99–$88.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $39.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,557 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $1,023 (overshoots $33.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $990 is $60 below CC-SS $1050.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.90/sh (~25% of the $39.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,030.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $990): -$10,243 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,023 (+$55,927 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,325, the opportunity cost of earning $66,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 173 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.042 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$66,170 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-698
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1075 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/5 | $33,000 | $32,292 | 95% | 96% | +$27,112 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,580 (vs do-nothing $-1,882) |
| $1070 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $36,000 | $35,292 | 95% | 96% | +$29,292 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,380 (vs do-nothing $-1,682) |
| $1065 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 5/5 | $39,000 | $38,292 | 95% | 95% | +$31,358 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,180 (vs do-nothing $-1,482) |
| $1060 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 4/5 | $33,600 | $39,954 | 94% | 95% | +$26,638 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,724 (vs do-nothing $-1,026) |
| $1055 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 4/5 | $36,300 | $42,654 | 93% | 94% | +$28,373 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,544 (vs do-nothing $-846) |
| $1052.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 4/5 | $37,800 | $44,154 | 93% | 94% | +$29,342 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,444 (vs do-nothing $-746) |
| $1050 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 4/5 | $39,600 | $45,954 | 93% | 94% | +$30,576 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,358 (vs do-nothing $-660) |
| $1047.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 4/5 | $40,800 | $47,154 | 92% | 93% | +$31,174 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,278 (vs do-nothing $-1,580) |
| $1045 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 4/5 | $42,600 | $48,954 | 92% | 93% | +$32,332 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-3,158 (vs do-nothing $-2,460) |
| $1042.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 3/5 | $33,075 | $46,492 | 92% | 93% | +$24,861 | -$71 | 0.1% | $-3,218 (vs do-nothing $-2,520) |
| $1040 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 3/5 | $34,875 | $48,292 | 91% | 93% | +$26,115 | -$701 | 0.9% | $-3,848 (vs do-nothing $-3,150) |
| $1037.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 3/5 | $35,775 | $49,192 | 91% | 92% | +$26,434 | -$1,391 | 1.9% | $-4,538 (vs do-nothing $-3,840) |
| $1035 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/5 | $37,125 | $50,542 | 91% | 92% | +$27,165 | -$2,051 | 2.8% | $-5,198 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 160.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1032.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 3/5 | $38,475 | $51,892 | 90% | 92% | +$27,856 | -$2,711 | 3.6% | $-5,858 (vs do-nothing $-5,160) |
| $1030 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 3/5 | $40,050 | $53,467 | 90% | 91% | +$28,729 | -$3,356 | 4.5% | $-6,503 (vs do-nothing $-5,805) |
| $1027.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 3/5 | $41,625 | $55,042 | 89% | 91% | +$29,558 | -$4,001 | 5.4% | $-7,148 (vs do-nothing $-6,450) |
| $1025 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 3/5 | $43,425 | $56,842 | 89% | 91% | +$30,564 | -$4,631 | 6.2% | $-7,778 (vs do-nothing $-7,080) |
| $1022.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 3/5 | $45,000 | $58,417 | 88% | 90% | +$31,295 | -$5,276 | 7.1% | $-8,423 (vs do-nothing $-7,725) |
| $1020 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 3/5 | $46,800 | $60,217 | 88% | 90% | +$32,197 | -$5,906 | 7.9% | $-9,053 (vs do-nothing $-8,355) |
| $1017.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.80 | 3/5 | $48,600 | $62,017 | 87% | 90% | +$33,043 | -$6,536 | 8.8% | $-9,683 (vs do-nothing $-8,985) |
| $1015 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 2/5 | $33,600 | $54,079 | 87% | 89% | +$22,553 | -$4,777 | 6.4% | $-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-6,410) |
| $1012.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 2/5 | $34,950 | $55,429 | 86% | 89% | +$23,186 | -$5,187 | 7.0% | $-7,518 (vs do-nothing $-6,820) |
| $1040 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $11.55 | 5/5 | $34,650 | $33,942 | 86% | 88% | +$17,198 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-4,048 (vs do-nothing $-3,350) |
| $1010 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.10 | 2/5 | $36,300 | $56,779 | 85% | 88% | +$23,775 | -$5,597 | 7.5% | $-7,928 (vs do-nothing $-7,230) |
| $1007.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.60 | 2/5 | $37,800 | $58,279 | 85% | 88% | +$24,469 | -$5,997 | 8.1% | $-8,328 (vs do-nothing $-7,630) |
| $1035 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $11.95 | 5/5 | $35,850 | $35,142 | 85% | 87% | +$16,783 | -$1,568 | 2.1% | $-6,348 (vs do-nothing $-5,650) |
| $1005 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.90 | 2/5 | $38,700 | $59,179 | 84% | 87% | +$24,515 | -$6,437 | 8.7% | $-8,768 (vs do-nothing $-8,070) |
| $1030 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $13.15 | 5/5 | $39,450 | $38,742 | 84% | 86% | +$18,636 | -$3,468 | 4.7% | $-8,248 (vs do-nothing $-7,550) |
| $1002.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.35 | 2/5 | $40,050 | $60,529 | 84% | 87% | +$24,962 | -$6,847 | 9.2% | $-9,178 (vs do-nothing $-8,480) |
| $1070 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $20.25 | 5/5 | $33,750 | $33,042 | 83% | 86% | +$14,514 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,345 (vs do-nothing +$6,043) |
| $1000 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.95 | 2/5 | $41,850 | $62,329 | 83% | 87% | +$25,808 | -$7,227 | 9.7% | $-9,558 (vs do-nothing $-8,860) |
| $1025 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 4/5 | $33,720 | $40,074 | 83% | 86% | +$15,559 | -$4,414 | 5.9% | $-8,378 (vs do-nothing $-7,680) |
| $1065 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $21.15 | 5/5 | $35,250 | $34,542 | 82% | 85% | +$14,874 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,795 (vs do-nothing +$6,493) |
| $1020 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $15.10 | 4/5 | $36,240 | $42,594 | 82% | 85% | +$16,449 | -$5,994 | 8.1% | $-9,958 (vs do-nothing $-9,260) |
| $1060 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $22.10 | 5/5 | $36,833 | $36,125 | 82% | 85% | +$15,257 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,270 (vs do-nothing +$6,968) |
| $995 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $15.00 | 2/5 | $45,000 | $65,479 | 81% | 86% | +$26,882 | -$8,017 | 10.8% | $-10,348 (vs do-nothing $-9,650) |
| $1055 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $23.05 | 5/5 | $38,417 | $37,708 | 81% | 84% | +$15,576 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,745 (vs do-nothing +$7,443) |
| $1015 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $16.00 | 4/5 | $38,400 | $44,754 | 81% | 84% | +$16,851 | -$7,634 | 10.3% | $-11,598 (vs do-nothing $-10,900) |
| $1050 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $24.10 | 5/5 | $40,167 | $39,458 | 80% | 84% | +$15,996 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,227 (vs do-nothing +$7,925) |
| $990 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 2/5 | $48,750 | $69,229 | 80% | 85% | +$28,315 | -$8,767 | 11.8% | $-11,098 (vs do-nothing $-10,400) |
| $1010 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $17.05 | 4/5 | $40,920 | $47,274 | 79% | 83% | +$17,477 | -$9,214 | 12.4% | $-13,178 (vs do-nothing $-12,480) |
| $1045 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $25.15 | 4/5 | $33,533 | $39,887 | 79% | 83% | +$13,077 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,062 (vs do-nothing +$4,760) |
| $1040 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $26.10 | 4/5 | $34,800 | $41,154 | 78% | 83% | +$13,167 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,442 (vs do-nothing +$3,140) |
| $1005 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $18.05 | 4/5 | $43,320 | $49,674 | 78% | 83% | +$17,840 | -$10,814 | 14.6% | $-14,778 (vs do-nothing $-14,080) |
| $985 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $17.40 | 2/5 | $52,200 | $72,679 | 78% | 84% | +$29,180 | -$9,537 | 12.8% | $-11,868 (vs do-nothing $-11,170) |
| $1035 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $27.40 | 4/5 | $36,533 | $42,887 | 78% | 82% | +$13,663 | -$0 | 0.0% | $962 (vs do-nothing +$1,660) |
| $1060 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $35.15 | 5/5 | $32,953 | $32,245 | 77% | 82% | +$10,743 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,795 (vs do-nothing +$13,493) |
| $1000 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $19.35 | 3/5 | $34,830 | $48,247 | 77% | 82% | +$14,077 | -$9,221 | 12.4% | $-12,368 (vs do-nothing $-11,670) |
| $1030 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $28.55 | 4/5 | $38,067 | $44,421 | 77% | 81% | +$13,898 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-578 (vs do-nothing +$120) |
| $1055 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $35.95 | 5/5 | $33,703 | $32,995 | 77% | 81% | +$10,534 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,195 (vs do-nothing +$13,893) |
| $980 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $18.70 | 2/5 | $56,100 | $76,579 | 76% | 83% | +$30,204 | -$10,277 | 13.8% | $-12,608 (vs do-nothing $-11,910) |
| $1035 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $27.00 | 5/5 | $33,750 | $33,042 | 76% | 81% | +$8,355 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,177 (vs do-nothing +$1,875) |
| $1050 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $37.55 | 5/5 | $35,203 | $34,495 | 76% | 81% | +$11,039 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,952 (vs do-nothing +$14,650) |
| $995 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $20.40 | 3/5 | $36,720 | $50,137 | 76% | 81% | +$14,203 | -$10,406 | 14.0% | $-13,553 (vs do-nothing $-12,855) |
| $1030 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $28.25 | 5/5 | $35,312 | $34,604 | 76% | 80% | +$8,618 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-698 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $1045 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $38.60 | 5/5 | $36,188 | $35,479 | 75% | 80% | +$10,991 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,977 (vs do-nothing +$12,675) |
| $1025 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $29.55 | 5/5 | $36,938 | $36,229 | 75% | 80% | +$8,886 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,548 (vs do-nothing $-1,850) |
| $975 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $20.15 | 2/5 | $60,450 | $80,929 | 75% | 82% | +$31,368 | -$10,987 | 14.8% | $-13,318 (vs do-nothing $-12,620) |
| $1040 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $39.90 | 5/5 | $37,406 | $36,698 | 75% | 80% | +$11,139 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,127 (vs do-nothing +$10,825) |
| $990 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $21.85 | 3/5 | $39,330 | $52,747 | 74% | 80% | +$14,921 | -$11,471 | 15.4% | $-14,618 (vs do-nothing $-13,920) |
| $1020 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $30.90 | 5/5 | $38,625 | $37,917 | 74% | 79% | +$9,154 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-4,373 (vs do-nothing $-3,675) |
| $1035 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $40.75 | 5/5 | $38,203 | $37,495 | 74% | 79% | +$10,825 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,052 (vs do-nothing +$8,750) |
| $1010 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $33.75 | 3/5 | $33,750 | $47,167 | 73% | 79% | +$11,227 | -$1,901 | 2.6% | $-5,048 (vs do-nothing $-4,350) |
| $1030 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $42.55 | 5/5 | $39,891 | $39,182 | 73% | 79% | +$11,362 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,452 (vs do-nothing +$7,150) |
| $985 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $23.05 | 3/5 | $41,490 | $54,907 | 73% | 79% | +$15,054 | -$12,611 | 17.0% | $-15,758 (vs do-nothing $-15,060) |
| $1020 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $31.70 | 5/5 | $33,964 | $33,256 | 73% | 79% | +$5,123 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-3,973 (vs do-nothing $-3,275) |
| $970 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $21.65 | 2/5 | $64,950 | $85,429 | 73% | 80% | +$32,359 | -$11,687 | 15.7% | $-14,018 (vs do-nothing $-13,320) |
| $1015 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $32.25 | 5/5 | $40,312 | $39,604 | 72% | 78% | +$6,736 | -$1,418 | 1.9% | $-6,198 (vs do-nothing $-5,500) |
| $1025 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $42.20 | 5/5 | $39,562 | $38,854 | 72% | 79% | +$9,842 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,777 (vs do-nothing +$4,475) |
| $1015 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $33.15 | 5/5 | $35,518 | $34,810 | 72% | 78% | +$5,241 | -$968 | 1.3% | $-5,748 (vs do-nothing $-5,050) |
| $1022.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $42.90 | 5/5 | $40,219 | $39,510 | 72% | 78% | +$9,887 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,877 (vs do-nothing +$3,575) |
| $980 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $23.70 | 3/5 | $42,660 | $56,077 | 72% | 78% | +$14,056 | -$13,916 | 18.7% | $-17,063 (vs do-nothing $-16,365) |
| $1020 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $45.40 | 4/5 | $34,050 | $40,404 | 72% | 78% | +$9,286 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,162 (vs do-nothing +$2,860) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.