FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $923.08

BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1050.09  |  5 contracts (500 sh)  |  2026-07-08 03:37 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MU-LC880 @ $923.08   UNDERWATER $105.52 (10.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1050.09  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)
SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$419,300(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref$65,464/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$708/mo
Unrealized P&L$-70,950fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$32,732/mo
HEDGE COVER
$708/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$65,464/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $74,300
ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $419,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1050.09 (probe: $1050C 14d) still earns $28,500/mo (44% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$4,780
Hole (after banked)
$66,170
was $70,950 · 7% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$1,059.26 → $1,050.09
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 73 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 18 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,211.34 (+31%) · daily UBB $1,232.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$134 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $1075 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 95%, breach 5%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($32,732/mo); it brings $33,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1030/2d for $66,750/mo, but breach risk rises to 10% (+6pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1150/2d (99% survival, $2,250/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-71,075 and cuts bleed by $708/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $1075, 95% survival, $33,000/mo (E[net] $23,097/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆10 Jul 2026 · 2d5 × $107595%$33,000$23,097
NEXT FRIDAY17 Jul 2026 · 9d5 × $107083%$33,750$7,577

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 · 2d · E[net] $23,097/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1075 (primary), 95% survival, breach 5%, $33,000/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 97% (breach 5% → 3%) for $9,750/mo less (30% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $923.08 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $115010 Jul2d24.6%99%2%$150$2,250-$30,750$0
Sell 1 × $1150 24.6% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.57 mid)
= $150 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1150)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $1151.58)
99%
EV / mo
+$2,082
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.5] median  ·  88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 91% without)  ·  ~0.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $17,674
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,503
Free roll-up
+$39/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,297 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $51.66/sh now → $36.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.03/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,15013 Jul 20264d left+$8.36/sh+$836
cycle +$986
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,16713 Jul 20264d left+$1.57/sh+$157
cycle +$307
71%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,29724 Jul 202615d left+$0.37/sh+$37
cycle +$187
81%
surv 77%
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,250/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)-93%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)3% covered
Net income (after hedge)$29,792/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-14,198
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,151.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,138-1,151.58
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,151.58
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,150.00 (3.2σ)$150$10,725+$81,675+$9,325
+2.5%$1,178.75 (3.6σ)$-2,725$11,329+$82,279+$9,325
+5%$1,207.50 (4.0σ)$-5,600$11,933+$82,883+$9,325
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1150): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$3,266
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,514 (+$69,436 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-816, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $110010 Jul2d19.2%97%6%$1,550$23,250-$9,750$0
Sell 5 × $1100 19.2% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $3.23 mid)
= $1,550 credit for the 2d cycle → $23,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1100)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $1103.22)
97%
EV / mo
+$20,183
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median  ·  80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,079
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
2%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,922
Free roll-up
+$51/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,262 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $49.41/sh now → $34.94 mid-life (likely $34.03–$88.68)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.84/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $1,100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,139 (overshoots $39.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,17224 Jul 202615d left+$21.43/sh+$10,716
cycle +$12,266
[-$3,135…+$12,238] · 72% credit
75%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,10013 Jul 20264d left+$9.04/sh+$4,519
cycle +$6,069
[-$2,533…+$5,646] · 70% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,12213 Jul 20264d left+$0.07/sh+$37
cycle +$1,587
[-$9,693…+$557] · 32% credit
72%
surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,24724 Jul 202615d left+$0.54/sh+$271
cycle +$1,821
[-$17,563…+$1,202] · 32% credit
81%
surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,26224 Jul 202615d left-$1.87/sh-$935
cycle +$615
[-$19,250…-$82] · 25% credit
83%
surv 79%
budget: banked $1,550 debit $935 (60% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$615 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $33,075/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$23,250/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$22,542/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1100 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,013
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,103.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,089.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,089-1,103.22
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,103.22
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,100.00 (2.5σ)$1,550$22,775+$93,725+$22,425
+2.5%$1,127.50 (2.9σ)$-12,200$23,353+$94,303+$22,425
+5%$1,155.00 (3.2σ)$-25,950$23,930+$94,880+$22,425
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1100): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $23,250/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $107510 Jul2d16.5%95%4%$2,200$33,000$0
Sell 5 × $1075 16.5% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $4.65 mid)
= $2,200 credit for the 2d cycle → $33,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1075)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $1079.65)
96%
EV / mo
+$27,112
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.2] median  ·  82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,628
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$14,875
Free roll-up
+$51/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,252 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.29/sh now → $34.15 mid-life (likely $32.31–$55.95)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$29.75/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 116 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,104 (overshoots $28.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,14724 Jul 202615d left+$21.31/sh+$10,656
cycle +$12,856
[+$5,531…+$12,363] · 84% credit
75%
surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,07513 Jul 20264d left+$9.34/sh+$4,670
cycle +$6,870
[+$2,193…+$5,858] · 83% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,09713 Jul 20264d left+$0.38/sh+$189
cycle +$2,389
[-$3,642…+$828] · 35% credit
72%
surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,22224 Jul 202615d left+$0.58/sh+$290
cycle +$2,490
[-$6,514…+$1,490] · 34% credit
81%
surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,25224 Jul 202615d left-$4.29/sh-$2,144
cycle +$56
[-$9,488…-$1,075] · 19% credit
84%
surv 81%
budget: banked $2,200 debit $2,144 (97% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $29,862/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$33,000/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$32,292/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1075 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,075
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.10/sh (~25% of the $4.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,079.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,075)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,064.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,064-1,079.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,079.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,075.00 (2.1σ)$2,200$10,400+$81,350+$10,575
+2.5%$1,101.88 (2.5σ)$-11,238$10,965+$81,915+$10,575
+5%$1,128.75 (2.9σ)$-24,675$11,529+$82,479+$10,575
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1075): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $33,000/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $1032.5010 Jul2d11.9%90%20%$4,275$64,125+$31,125$4,518
Sell 5 × $1032.50 11.9% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.85 mid)
= $4,275 credit for the 2d cycle → $64,125/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1032.50)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1041.35)
92%
EV / mo
+$46,426
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo)  ·  90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without)  ·  ~2.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $19,568
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$12,125
Free roll-up
+$51/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,224 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $46.38/sh now → $32.80 mid-life (likely $35.60–$77.51)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $8.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.25/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $1,032 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,071 (overshoots $38.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,10424 Jul 202615d left+$21.02/sh+$10,508
cycle +$14,783
[-$925…+$10,488] · 73% credit
75%
surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,03213 Jul 20264d left+$9.80/sh+$4,901
cycle +$9,176
[-$999…+$5,142] · 71% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,05413 Jul 20264d left+$0.84/sh+$418
cycle +$4,693
[-$7,590…+$99] · 26% credit
72%
surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,17924 Jul 202615d left+$0.57/sh+$285
cycle +$4,560
[-$14,631…-$266] · 23% credit
82%
surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,22424 Jul 202615d left-$8.05/sh-$4,024
cycle +$251
[-$20,633…-$4,822]
85%
surv 83%
budget: banked $4,275 debit $4,024 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$251 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $24,752/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$64,125/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)+96%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)98% covered
Net income (after hedge)$63,417/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1032.50 is $18 below CC-SS $1050.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,518
… as % of IC ($74,300)6.1%
… as % of ML ($419,300)1.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,100
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.14/sh (~25% of the $8.55 collected) or spot ≥ $1,041.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,032)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,022.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,022-1,041.35
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,041.35
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,032.50 (1.5σ)$4,275$-9,667+$61,283-$8,600
+2.5%$1,058.31 (1.9σ)$-8,631$-9,125+$61,825-$8,600
+5%$1,084.12 (2.2σ)$-21,538$-8,583+$62,367-$8,600
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1032.50): -$4,518
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,298 (+$61,652 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,600, the opportunity cost of earning $64,125/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $103010 Jul2d11.6%90%21%$4,450$66,750+$33,750$5,593
Sell 5 × $1030 11.6% OTM over spot $923.08 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $9.20 mid)
= $4,450 credit for the 2d cycle → $66,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1030)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1039.20)
91%
EV / mo
+$47,882
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.3 mo [0.2-0.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo)  ·  86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without)  ·  ~2.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $18,285
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$11,910
Free roll-up
+$51/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,227 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $46.27/sh now → $32.72 mid-life (likely $34.39–$67.79)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $8.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.82/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $1,030 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,063 (overshoots $33.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,10224 Jul 202615d left+$20.99/sh+$10,497
cycle +$14,947
[+$1,769…+$10,537] · 80% credit
75%
surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,03013 Jul 20264d left+$9.83/sh+$4,913
cycle +$9,363
[+$607…+$5,197] · 78% credit
68%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,05213 Jul 20264d left+$0.86/sh+$431
cycle +$4,881
[-$5,566…+$177] · 30% credit
72%
surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,17724 Jul 202615d left+$0.57/sh+$283
cycle +$4,733
[-$11,039…-$121] · 23% credit
82%
surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,22724 Jul 202615d left-$8.77/sh-$4,384
cycle +$66
[-$17,110…-$4,970]
86%
surv 84%
budget: banked $4,450 debit $4,384 (99% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $23,953/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$66,750/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)+104%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$66,042/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $1030 is $20 below CC-SS $1050.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,593
… as % of IC ($74,300)7.5%
… as % of ML ($419,300)1.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,100
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.23/sh (~25% of the $8.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,039.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,030)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,019.70Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,020-1,039.20
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,039.20
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,030.00 (1.5σ)$4,450$-10,795+$60,155-$9,675
+2.5%$1,055.75 (1.9σ)$-8,425$-10,254+$60,696-$9,675
+5%$1,081.50 (2.2σ)$-21,300$-9,713+$61,237-$9,675
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1030): -$5,593
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,373 (+$60,577 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,675, the opportunity cost of earning $66,750/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 9d · E[net] $7,577/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1070 (primary), 83% survival, breach 17%, $33,750/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1120 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 17% → 11%) for $12,000/mo less (36% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $923.08 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $115017 Jul9d24.6%92%16%$990$3,300-$30,450$0
Sell 1 × $1150 24.6% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $10.32 mid)
= $990 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,300/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1150)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $1160.33)
93%
EV / mo
+$2,107
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.2] median  ·  89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without)  ·  ~0.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $18,469
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,002
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,212 @ 74% POP
65% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $84.69/sh now → $59.92 mid-life (likely $52.21–$86.95)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $9.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$50.02/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,189 (overshoots $38.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,18224 Jul 202612d left+$4.13/sh+$413
cycle +$1,403
[-$189…+$1,250] · 66% credit
71%
surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,15020 Jul 20268d left+$0.66/sh+$66
cycle +$1,056
[-$299…+$814] · 59% credit
67%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,18724 Jul 202612d left+$1.38/sh+$138
cycle +$1,128
[-$524…+$926] · 54% credit
71%
surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,21224 Jul 202612d left-$7.60/sh-$760
cycle +$230
[-$1,614…-$76] · 23% credit
74%
surv 65%
budget: banked $990 debit $760 (77% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$230 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $13,080/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,300/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)-90%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)5% covered
Net income (after hedge)$30,842/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-14,233
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.48/sh (~25% of the $9.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,160.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,138-1,160.33
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,160.33
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,150.00 (1.5σ)$990$11,565+$82,515+$10,165
+2.5%$1,178.75 (1.7σ)$-1,885$12,169+$83,119+$10,165
+5%$1,207.50 (1.9σ)$-4,760$12,773+$83,723+$10,165
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1150): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$3,266
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,514 (+$69,436 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-816, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $113517 Jul9d23.0%91%19%$5,700$19,000-$14,750$0
Sell 5 × $1135 23.0% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $11.80 mid)
= $5,700 credit for the 9d cycle → $19,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1135)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $1146.80)
92%
EV / mo
+$11,649
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo)  ·  80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without)  ·  ~1.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $11,326
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$23,870
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,202 @ 74% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $83.59/sh now → $59.14 mid-life (likely $51.43–$86.48)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.74/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,173 (overshoots $38.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,16724 Jul 202612d left+$4.44/sh+$2,218
cycle +$7,918
[-$1,278…+$6,502] · 66% credit
71%
surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,13520 Jul 20268d left+$1.06/sh+$529
cycle +$6,229
[-$1,595…+$4,269] · 58% credit
67%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,17224 Jul 202612d left+$1.70/sh+$849
cycle +$6,549
[-$2,904…+$4,912] · 53% credit
71%
surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,13720 Jul 20268d left+$0.21/sh+$105
cycle +$5,805
[-$2,136…+$3,784] · 52% credit
67%
surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,20224 Jul 202612d left-$10.37/sh-$5,183
cycle +$517
[-$10,063…-$2,144] · 18% credit
74%
surv 66%
budget: banked $5,700 debit $5,183 (91% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$517 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $60,969/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$19,000/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)-42%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)29% covered
Net income (after hedge)$18,292/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1135 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,150
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.85/sh (~25% of the $11.40 collected) or spot ≥ $1,146.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,123.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,124-1,146.80
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,146.80
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,135.00 (1.4σ)$5,700$45,160+$116,110+$44,075
+2.5%$1,163.38 (1.6σ)$-8,488$45,756+$116,706+$44,075
+5%$1,191.75 (1.8σ)$-22,675$46,352+$117,302+$44,075
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1135): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $19,000/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $112017 Jul9d21.3%89%24%$6,525$21,750-$12,000$0
Sell 5 × $1120 21.3% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $13.50 mid)
= $6,525 credit for the 9d cycle → $21,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1120)
89%
Breach risk
11%
POP (stays ≤ $1133.50)
90%
EV / mo
+$11,087
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median  ·  81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without)  ·  ~1.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $12,381
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
16%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$22,654
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,197 @ 76% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $82.48/sh now → $58.36 mid-life (likely $54.54–$86.50)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $13.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$45.31/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $1,120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,159 (overshoots $38.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15224 Jul 202612d left+$4.73/sh+$2,364
cycle +$8,889
[-$1,167…+$5,470] · 65% credit
71%
surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,12020 Jul 20268d left+$1.45/sh+$723
cycle +$7,248
[-$1,524…+$3,753] · 56% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,12220 Jul 20268d left+$0.60/sh+$299
cycle +$6,824
[-$2,076…+$3,251] · 52% credit
67%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,15724 Jul 202612d left+$2.00/sh+$999
cycle +$7,524
[-$2,832…+$3,931] · 52% credit
71%
surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,19724 Jul 202612d left-$11.71/sh-$5,853
cycle +$672
[-$11,209…-$3,583] · 10% credit
76%
surv 68%
budget: banked $6,525 debit $5,853 (90% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$672 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $58,317/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$21,750/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$21,042/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1120 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,175
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.26/sh (~25% of the $13.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,133.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,108.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,109-1,133.50
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,133.50
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,120.00 (1.3σ)$6,525$38,170+$109,120+$37,400
+2.5%$1,148.00 (1.5σ)$-7,475$38,758+$109,708+$37,400
+5%$1,176.00 (1.7σ)$-21,475$39,346+$110,296+$37,400
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1120): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $21,750/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $107017 Jul9d15.9%83%28%$10,125$33,750$0
Sell 5 × $1070 15.9% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $20.73 mid)
= $10,125 credit for the 9d cycle → $33,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1070)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $1090.72)
86%
EV / mo
+$14,514
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median  ·  82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without)  ·  ~1.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $19,670
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$17,752
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,177 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $78.80/sh now → $55.75 mid-life (likely $56.02–$88.87)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $20.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.50/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $1,070 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,108 (overshoots $38.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,09724 Jul 202612d left+$7.67/sh+$3,837
cycle +$13,962
[-$286…+$5,667] · 71% credit
71%
surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,07020 Jul 20268d left+$2.67/sh+$1,333
cycle +$11,458
[-$1,725…+$2,943] · 52% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,07220 Jul 20268d left+$1.82/sh+$909
cycle +$11,034
[-$2,223…+$2,449] · 47% credit
67%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,10724 Jul 202612d left+$2.90/sh+$1,452
cycle +$11,577
[-$3,181…+$3,012] · 45% credit
72%
surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,17724 Jul 202612d left-$19.52/sh-$9,762
cycle +$363
[-$17,507…-$9,503] · 2% credit
79%
surv 74%
budget: banked $10,125 debit $9,762 (96% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$363 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $45,286/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$33,750/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)+3%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$33,042/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1070 is at/above CC-SS $1050.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,188
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.06/sh (~25% of the $20.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,090.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,070)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,059.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,059-1,090.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,090.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,070.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$10,125$15,720+$86,670+$16,000
+2.5%$1,096.75 (1.1σ)$-3,250$16,282+$87,232+$16,000
+5%$1,123.50 (1.3σ)$-16,625$16,844+$87,794+$16,000
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1070): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,082, the opportunity cost of earning $33,750/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $99017 Jul9d7.2%69%66%$19,800$66,000+$32,250$10,243
Sell 5 × $990 7.2% OTM over spot $923.08 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $40.12 mid)
= $19,800 credit for the 9d cycle → $66,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $990)
69%
Breach risk
31%
POP (stays ≤ $1030.12)
77%
EV / mo
+$19,659
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo)  ·  89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without)  ·  ~3.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $19,776
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
52%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,993
Free roll-up
+$16/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,217 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $72.91/sh now → $51.59 mid-life (likely $61.99–$88.65)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $39.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,557 simulated challenges: the $990 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $1,023 (overshoots $33.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,01724 Jul 202612d left+$8.73/sh+$4,366
cycle +$24,166
[-$676…+$3,311] · 66% credit
71%
surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$99020 Jul 20268d left+$4.37/sh+$2,183
cycle +$21,983
[-$1,579…+$1,533] · 42% credit
67%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$99720 Jul 20268d left+$0.39/sh+$196
cycle +$19,996
[-$4,094…-$742] · 20% credit
68%
surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,03224 Jul 202612d left+$1.13/sh+$564
cycle +$20,364
[-$5,487…-$931] · 19% credit
72%
surv 62%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,21724 Jul 202612d left-$39.44/sh-$19,718
cycle +$82
[-$32,974…-$23,727]
90%
surv 89%
budget: banked $19,800 debit $19,718 (100% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $15,185/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$66,000/mo
vs 50% target ($32,732/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($65,464/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$65,292/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $990 is $60 below CC-SS $1050.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,243
… as % of IC ($74,300)13.8%
… as % of ML ($419,300)2.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-71,213
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.90/sh (~25% of the $39.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,030.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $990)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,232.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $980.10Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$980-1,030.12
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,030.12
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$990.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$19,800$-16,285+$54,665+$5,675
+2.5%$1,014.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$7,425$-15,765+$55,185-$6,700
+5%$1,039.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$-4,950$-15,245+$55,705-$14,325
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,950
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,170
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $990): -$10,243
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,023 (+$55,927 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-698 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,325, the opportunity cost of earning $66,000/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (173 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 173 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.042 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$66,170 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-698

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10752d10 Jul 2026$4.405/5$33,000$32,29295%96%+$27,112-$00.0%$-2,580 (vs do-nothing $-1,882)
$10702d10 Jul 2026$4.805/5$36,000$35,29295%96%+$29,292-$00.0%$-2,380 (vs do-nothing $-1,682)
$10652d10 Jul 2026$5.205/5$39,000$38,29295%95%+$31,358-$00.0%$-2,180 (vs do-nothing $-1,482)
$10602d10 Jul 2026$5.604/5$33,600$39,95494%95%+$26,638-$00.0%$-1,724 (vs do-nothing $-1,026)
$10552d10 Jul 2026$6.054/5$36,300$42,65493%94%+$28,373-$00.0%$-1,544 (vs do-nothing $-846)
$1052.502d10 Jul 2026$6.304/5$37,800$44,15493%94%+$29,342-$00.0%$-1,444 (vs do-nothing $-746)
$10502d10 Jul 2026$6.604/5$39,600$45,95493%94%+$30,576-$00.0%$-1,358 (vs do-nothing $-660)
$1047.502d10 Jul 2026$6.804/5$40,800$47,15492%93%+$31,174-$00.0%$-2,278 (vs do-nothing $-1,580)
$10452d10 Jul 2026$7.104/5$42,600$48,95492%93%+$32,332-$00.0%$-3,158 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)
$1042.502d10 Jul 2026$7.353/5$33,075$46,49292%93%+$24,861-$710.1%$-3,218 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$10402d10 Jul 2026$7.753/5$34,875$48,29291%93%+$26,115-$7010.9%$-3,848 (vs do-nothing $-3,150)
$1037.502d10 Jul 2026$7.953/5$35,775$49,19291%92%+$26,434-$1,3911.9%$-4,538 (vs do-nothing $-3,840)
$10352d10 Jul 2026$8.253/5$37,125$50,54291%92%+$27,165-$2,0512.8%$-5,198 (vs do-nothing $-4,500)
Show 160 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 160.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1032.502d10 Jul 2026$8.553/5$38,475$51,89290%92%+$27,856-$2,7113.6%$-5,858 (vs do-nothing $-5,160)
$10302d10 Jul 2026$8.903/5$40,050$53,46790%91%+$28,729-$3,3564.5%$-6,503 (vs do-nothing $-5,805)
$1027.502d10 Jul 2026$9.253/5$41,625$55,04289%91%+$29,558-$4,0015.4%$-7,148 (vs do-nothing $-6,450)
$10252d10 Jul 2026$9.653/5$43,425$56,84289%91%+$30,564-$4,6316.2%$-7,778 (vs do-nothing $-7,080)
$1022.502d10 Jul 2026$10.003/5$45,000$58,41788%90%+$31,295-$5,2767.1%$-8,423 (vs do-nothing $-7,725)
$10202d10 Jul 2026$10.403/5$46,800$60,21788%90%+$32,197-$5,9067.9%$-9,053 (vs do-nothing $-8,355)
$1017.502d10 Jul 2026$10.803/5$48,600$62,01787%90%+$33,043-$6,5368.8%$-9,683 (vs do-nothing $-8,985)
$10152d10 Jul 2026$11.202/5$33,600$54,07987%89%+$22,553-$4,7776.4%$-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-6,410)
$1012.502d10 Jul 2026$11.652/5$34,950$55,42986%89%+$23,186-$5,1877.0%$-7,518 (vs do-nothing $-6,820)
$10405d13 Jul 2026$11.555/5$34,650$33,94286%88%+$17,198-$00.0%$-4,048 (vs do-nothing $-3,350)
$10102d10 Jul 2026$12.102/5$36,300$56,77985%88%+$23,775-$5,5977.5%$-7,928 (vs do-nothing $-7,230)
$1007.502d10 Jul 2026$12.602/5$37,800$58,27985%88%+$24,469-$5,9978.1%$-8,328 (vs do-nothing $-7,630)
$10355d13 Jul 2026$11.955/5$35,850$35,14285%87%+$16,783-$1,5682.1%$-6,348 (vs do-nothing $-5,650)
$10052d10 Jul 2026$12.902/5$38,700$59,17984%87%+$24,515-$6,4378.7%$-8,768 (vs do-nothing $-8,070)
$10305d13 Jul 2026$13.155/5$39,450$38,74284%86%+$18,636-$3,4684.7%$-8,248 (vs do-nothing $-7,550)
$1002.502d10 Jul 2026$13.352/5$40,050$60,52984%87%+$24,962-$6,8479.2%$-9,178 (vs do-nothing $-8,480)
$10709d17 Jul 2026$20.255/5$33,750$33,04283%86%+$14,514-$00.0%$5,345 (vs do-nothing +$6,043)
$10002d10 Jul 2026$13.952/5$41,850$62,32983%87%+$25,808-$7,2279.7%$-9,558 (vs do-nothing $-8,860)
$10255d13 Jul 2026$14.054/5$33,720$40,07483%86%+$15,559-$4,4145.9%$-8,378 (vs do-nothing $-7,680)
$10659d17 Jul 2026$21.155/5$35,250$34,54282%85%+$14,874-$00.0%$5,795 (vs do-nothing +$6,493)
$10205d13 Jul 2026$15.104/5$36,240$42,59482%85%+$16,449-$5,9948.1%$-9,958 (vs do-nothing $-9,260)
$10609d17 Jul 2026$22.105/5$36,833$36,12582%85%+$15,257-$00.0%$6,270 (vs do-nothing +$6,968)
$9952d10 Jul 2026$15.002/5$45,000$65,47981%86%+$26,882-$8,01710.8%$-10,348 (vs do-nothing $-9,650)
$10559d17 Jul 2026$23.055/5$38,417$37,70881%84%+$15,576-$00.0%$6,745 (vs do-nothing +$7,443)
$10155d13 Jul 2026$16.004/5$38,400$44,75481%84%+$16,851-$7,63410.3%$-11,598 (vs do-nothing $-10,900)
$10509d17 Jul 2026$24.105/5$40,167$39,45880%84%+$15,996-$00.0%$7,227 (vs do-nothing +$7,925)
$9902d10 Jul 2026$16.252/5$48,750$69,22980%85%+$28,315-$8,76711.8%$-11,098 (vs do-nothing $-10,400)
$10105d13 Jul 2026$17.054/5$40,920$47,27479%83%+$17,477-$9,21412.4%$-13,178 (vs do-nothing $-12,480)
$10459d17 Jul 2026$25.154/5$33,533$39,88779%83%+$13,077-$00.0%$4,062 (vs do-nothing +$4,760)
$10409d17 Jul 2026$26.104/5$34,800$41,15478%83%+$13,167-$00.0%$2,442 (vs do-nothing +$3,140)
$10055d13 Jul 2026$18.054/5$43,320$49,67478%83%+$17,840-$10,81414.6%$-14,778 (vs do-nothing $-14,080)
$9852d10 Jul 2026$17.402/5$52,200$72,67978%84%+$29,180-$9,53712.8%$-11,868 (vs do-nothing $-11,170)
$10359d17 Jul 2026$27.404/5$36,533$42,88778%82%+$13,663-$00.0%$962 (vs do-nothing +$1,660)
$106016d24 Jul 2026$35.155/5$32,953$32,24577%82%+$10,743-$00.0%$12,795 (vs do-nothing +$13,493)
$10005d13 Jul 2026$19.353/5$34,830$48,24777%82%+$14,077-$9,22112.4%$-12,368 (vs do-nothing $-11,670)
$10309d17 Jul 2026$28.554/5$38,067$44,42177%81%+$13,898-$00.0%$-578 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$105516d24 Jul 2026$35.955/5$33,703$32,99577%81%+$10,534-$00.0%$13,195 (vs do-nothing +$13,893)
$9802d10 Jul 2026$18.702/5$56,100$76,57976%83%+$30,204-$10,27713.8%$-12,608 (vs do-nothing $-11,910)
$103512d20 Jul 2026$27.005/5$33,750$33,04276%81%+$8,355-$00.0%$1,177 (vs do-nothing +$1,875)
$105016d24 Jul 2026$37.555/5$35,203$34,49576%81%+$11,039-$00.0%$13,952 (vs do-nothing +$14,650)
$9955d13 Jul 2026$20.403/5$36,720$50,13776%81%+$14,203-$10,40614.0%$-13,553 (vs do-nothing $-12,855)
$103012d20 Jul 2026$28.255/5$35,312$34,60476%80%+$8,618-$00.0%$-698 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$104516d24 Jul 2026$38.605/5$36,188$35,47975%80%+$10,991-$00.0%$11,977 (vs do-nothing +$12,675)
$102512d20 Jul 2026$29.555/5$36,938$36,22975%80%+$8,886-$00.0%$-2,548 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)
$9752d10 Jul 2026$20.152/5$60,450$80,92975%82%+$31,368-$10,98714.8%$-13,318 (vs do-nothing $-12,620)
$104016d24 Jul 2026$39.905/5$37,406$36,69875%80%+$11,139-$00.0%$10,127 (vs do-nothing +$10,825)
$9905d13 Jul 2026$21.853/5$39,330$52,74774%80%+$14,921-$11,47115.4%$-14,618 (vs do-nothing $-13,920)
$102012d20 Jul 2026$30.905/5$38,625$37,91774%79%+$9,154-$00.0%$-4,373 (vs do-nothing $-3,675)
$103516d24 Jul 2026$40.755/5$38,203$37,49574%79%+$10,825-$00.0%$8,052 (vs do-nothing +$8,750)
$10109d17 Jul 2026$33.753/5$33,750$47,16773%79%+$11,227-$1,9012.6%$-5,048 (vs do-nothing $-4,350)
$103016d24 Jul 2026$42.555/5$39,891$39,18273%79%+$11,362-$00.0%$6,452 (vs do-nothing +$7,150)
$9855d13 Jul 2026$23.053/5$41,490$54,90773%79%+$15,054-$12,61117.0%$-15,758 (vs do-nothing $-15,060)
$102014d22 Jul 2026$31.705/5$33,964$33,25673%79%+$5,123-$00.0%$-3,973 (vs do-nothing $-3,275)
$9702d10 Jul 2026$21.652/5$64,950$85,42973%80%+$32,359-$11,68715.7%$-14,018 (vs do-nothing $-13,320)
$101512d20 Jul 2026$32.255/5$40,312$39,60472%78%+$6,736-$1,4181.9%$-6,198 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)
$102516d24 Jul 2026$42.205/5$39,562$38,85472%79%+$9,842-$00.0%$3,777 (vs do-nothing +$4,475)
$101514d22 Jul 2026$33.155/5$35,518$34,81072%78%+$5,241-$9681.3%$-5,748 (vs do-nothing $-5,050)
$1022.5016d24 Jul 2026$42.905/5$40,219$39,51072%78%+$9,887-$00.0%$2,877 (vs do-nothing +$3,575)
$9805d13 Jul 2026$23.703/5$42,660$56,07772%78%+$14,056-$13,91618.7%$-17,063 (vs do-nothing $-16,365)
$102016d24 Jul 2026$45.404/5$34,050$40,40472%78%+$9,286-$00.0%$2,162 (vs do-nothing +$2,860)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-08 03:37