5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1028.60 | CC-SS: $1050.38 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $419,300 | (ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $83,170/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $771/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-71,732 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $1055 | 93% | $43,875 | $21,890 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $1045 | 79% | $42,083 | $8,446 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $1150 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.8% | 99% | 3% | $116 | $1,740 | -$42,135 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $1150 24.8% OTM over spot $921.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.30 mid) = $116 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1150) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $1151.31) 99% EV / mo +$1,468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.5] median · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,687 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,946 Free roll-up +$43/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,293 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $57.43/sh now → $40.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $1,151.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1150): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$3,828 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-952 (+$70,781 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-957, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $1080 | 10 Jul | 2d | 17.2% | 95% | 10% | $1,900 | $28,500 | -$15,375 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1080 17.2% OTM over spot $921.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $4.05 mid) = $1,900 credit for the 2d cycle → $28,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1080) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $1084.05) 96% EV / mo +$21,585 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.3] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,552 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,173 Free roll-up +$43/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,238 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $53.94/sh now → $38.15 mid-life (likely $41.55–$78.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$34.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 151 simulated challenges: the $1,080 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,121 (overshoots $41.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1080 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,084.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,080)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1080): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,785, the opportunity cost of earning $28,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $1055 | 10 Jul | 2d | 14.5% | 93% | 8% | $2,925 | $43,875 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1055 14.5% OTM over spot $921.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $6.28 mid) = $2,925 credit for the 2d cycle → $43,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1055) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $1061.28) 93% EV / mo +$31,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.2-1.5] median · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,698 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,706 Free roll-up +$43/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,218 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $52.69/sh now → $37.26 mid-life (likely $40.21–$80.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 236 simulated challenges: the $1,055 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,096 (overshoots $40.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1055 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.46/sh (~25% of the $5.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,061.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,055)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1055): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,785, the opportunity cost of earning $43,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $1037.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.6% | 90% | 20% | $3,925 | $58,875 | +$15,000 | $2,515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1037.50 12.6% OTM over spot $921.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $8.32 mid) = $3,925 credit for the 2d cycle → $58,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1037.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $1045.83) 91% EV / mo +$39,591 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,354 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,397 Free roll-up +$55/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,216 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $51.81/sh now → $36.64 mid-life (likely $38.92–$76.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $1,038 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,075 (overshoots $37.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $1037.50 is $13 below CC-SS $1050.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.96/sh (~25% of the $7.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,045.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,038)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1037.50): -$2,515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,295 (+$64,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,300, the opportunity cost of earning $58,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $1015 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.1% | 86% | 29% | $5,725 | $85,875 | +$42,000 | $11,965 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1015 10.1% OTM over spot $921.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $12.12 mid) = $5,725 credit for the 2d cycle → $85,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1015) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $1027.12) 88% EV / mo +$52,806 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $31,286 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,200 Free roll-up +$55/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,208 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $50.69/sh now → $35.85 mid-life (likely $40.26–$81.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 529 simulated challenges: the $1,015 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $1,054 (overshoots $38.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $1015 is $35 below CC-SS $1050.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.86/sh (~25% of the $11.45 collected) or spot ≥ $1,027.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,015)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1015): -$11,965 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,745 (+$54,988 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,750, the opportunity cost of earning $85,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $1150 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.8% | 92% | 17% | $950 | $3,167 | -$38,917 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $1150 24.8% OTM over spot $921.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $10.05 mid) = $950 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1150) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $1160.05) 92% EV / mo +$1,785 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.5] median · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,205 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,551 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,208 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $91.87/sh now → $65.01 mid-life (likely $56.81–$95.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$55.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,190 (overshoots $39.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.38/sh (~25% of the $9.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,160.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1150): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$3,828 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-952 (+$70,781 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-957, the opportunity cost of earning $3,167/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $1135 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.2% | 90% | 20% | $5,475 | $18,250 | -$23,833 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1135 23.2% OTM over spot $921.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $11.72 mid) = $5,475 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1135) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $1146.72) 91% EV / mo +$9,899 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 91% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,882 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26,604 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,198 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $90.67/sh now → $64.16 mid-life (likely $56.47–$93.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$53.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 471 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,174 (overshoots $38.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1135 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.74/sh (~25% of the $10.95 collected) or spot ≥ $1,146.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1135): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,785, the opportunity cost of earning $18,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $1090 | 17 Jul | 9d | 18.3% | 86% | 30% | $8,375 | $27,917 | -$14,167 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1090 18.3% OTM over spot $921.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $17.68 mid) = $8,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $27,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1090) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $1107.67) 88% EV / mo +$13,278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.1] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 91% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,220 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,432 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,173 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $87.08/sh now → $61.61 mid-life (likely $58.42–$93.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$44.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 707 simulated challenges: the $1,090 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $1,126 (overshoots $35.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1090 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.19/sh (~25% of the $16.75 collected) or spot ≥ $1,107.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,090)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1090): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,785, the opportunity cost of earning $27,917/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $1045 | 17 Jul | 9d | 13.4% | 79% | 34% | $12,625 | $42,083 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $1045 13.4% OTM over spot $921.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $26.27 mid) = $12,625 credit for the 9d cycle → $42,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $1045) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $1071.28) 83% EV / mo +$16,961 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,415 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,910 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,163 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $83.48/sh now → $59.07 mid-life (likely $63.18–$96.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $25.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $1,045 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $1,081 (overshoots $35.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $1045 is at/above CC-SS $1050.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $6.31/sh (~25% of the $25.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,071.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,045)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1045): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$66,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,785, the opportunity cost of earning $42,083/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $960 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.2% | 63% | 80% | $25,075 | $83,583 | +$41,500 | $20,115 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $960 4.2% OTM over spot $921.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $52.95 mid) = $25,075 credit for the 9d cycle → $83,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $960) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $1012.95) 74% EV / mo +$20,421 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 91% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,049 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,058 Free roll-up +$20/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $1,188 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $76.69/sh now → $54.27 mid-life (likely $71.26–$98.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $50.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,892 simulated challenges: the $960 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $994 (overshoots $33.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $960 is $90 below CC-SS $1050.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $12.54/sh (~25% of the $50.15 collected) or spot ≥ $1,012.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $960)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,230.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1050.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,952 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $960): -$20,115 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,895 (+$46,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,900, the opportunity cost of earning $83,583/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 193 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.040 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$66,952 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1055 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 5/5 | $43,875 | $43,104 | 93% | 93% | +$31,241 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,855 (vs do-nothing $-1,860) |
| $1052.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 5/5 | $45,375 | $44,604 | 92% | 93% | +$31,954 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,755 (vs do-nothing $-1,760) |
| $1050 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 5/5 | $46,500 | $45,729 | 92% | 93% | +$32,242 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,870 (vs do-nothing $-1,875) |
| $1047.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 5/5 | $49,500 | $48,729 | 92% | 93% | +$34,354 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,920 (vs do-nothing $-2,925) |
| $1045 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 5/5 | $50,250 | $49,479 | 91% | 92% | +$34,161 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-4,120 (vs do-nothing $-4,125) |
| $1042.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $43,200 | $49,917 | 91% | 92% | +$29,527 | -$272 | 0.4% | $-4,095 (vs do-nothing $-4,100) |
| $1040 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 4/5 | $45,000 | $51,717 | 90% | 92% | +$30,476 | -$1,152 | 1.6% | $-4,975 (vs do-nothing $-4,980) |
| $1037.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $47,100 | $53,817 | 90% | 91% | +$31,673 | -$2,012 | 2.7% | $-5,835 (vs do-nothing $-5,840) |
| $1035 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 4/5 | $49,200 | $55,917 | 90% | 91% | +$32,814 | -$2,872 | 3.9% | $-6,695 (vs do-nothing $-6,700) |
| $1032.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 4/5 | $51,300 | $58,017 | 89% | 91% | +$33,897 | -$3,732 | 5.0% | $-7,555 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $1030 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 4/5 | $51,900 | $58,617 | 89% | 90% | +$33,417 | -$4,692 | 6.3% | $-8,515 (vs do-nothing $-8,520) |
| $1027.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 3/5 | $41,625 | $55,829 | 88% | 90% | +$26,905 | -$4,089 | 5.5% | $-6,955 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $1025 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 4/5 | $54,600 | $61,317 | 88% | 90% | +$33,760 | -$6,512 | 8.8% | $-10,335 (vs do-nothing $-10,340) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 180.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1022.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.10 | 3/5 | $45,450 | $59,654 | 87% | 89% | +$28,856 | -$5,334 | 7.2% | $-8,200 (vs do-nothing $-8,205) |
| $1020 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 3/5 | $47,700 | $61,904 | 87% | 89% | +$30,084 | -$5,934 | 8.0% | $-8,800 (vs do-nothing $-8,805) |
| $1017.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.90 | 3/5 | $49,050 | $63,254 | 86% | 89% | +$30,353 | -$6,594 | 8.9% | $-9,460 (vs do-nothing $-9,465) |
| $1015 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.45 | 3/5 | $51,525 | $65,729 | 86% | 88% | +$31,684 | -$7,179 | 9.7% | $-10,045 (vs do-nothing $-10,050) |
| $1012.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.85 | 3/5 | $53,325 | $67,529 | 85% | 88% | +$32,273 | -$7,809 | 10.5% | $-10,675 (vs do-nothing $-10,680) |
| $1010 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.35 | 3/5 | $55,575 | $69,779 | 84% | 87% | +$33,244 | -$8,409 | 11.3% | $-11,275 (vs do-nothing $-11,280) |
| $1007.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.80 | 3/5 | $57,600 | $71,804 | 84% | 87% | +$33,918 | -$9,024 | 12.1% | $-11,890 (vs do-nothing $-11,895) |
| $1005 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.45 | 3/5 | $60,525 | $74,729 | 83% | 87% | +$35,416 | -$9,579 | 12.9% | $-12,445 (vs do-nothing $-12,450) |
| $1025 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $14.45 | 5/5 | $43,350 | $42,579 | 83% | 86% | +$21,351 | -$5,465 | 7.4% | $-10,245 (vs do-nothing $-10,250) |
| $1002.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 2/5 | $41,700 | $63,392 | 83% | 86% | +$23,957 | -$6,796 | 9.1% | $-8,705 (vs do-nothing $-8,710) |
| $1020 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $15.45 | 5/5 | $46,350 | $45,579 | 82% | 85% | +$22,343 | -$7,465 | 10.0% | $-12,245 (vs do-nothing $-12,250) |
| $1000 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $14.85 | 2/5 | $44,550 | $66,242 | 82% | 86% | +$25,749 | -$7,106 | 9.6% | $-9,015 (vs do-nothing $-9,020) |
| $1015 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $16.45 | 5/5 | $49,350 | $48,579 | 81% | 85% | +$23,167 | -$9,465 | 12.7% | $-14,245 (vs do-nothing $-14,250) |
| $995 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $15.90 | 2/5 | $47,700 | $69,392 | 80% | 85% | +$26,610 | -$7,896 | 10.6% | $-9,805 (vs do-nothing $-9,810) |
| $1010 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $17.70 | 4/5 | $42,480 | $49,197 | 80% | 84% | +$19,649 | -$9,072 | 12.2% | $-12,895 (vs do-nothing $-12,900) |
| $1045 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $25.25 | 5/5 | $42,083 | $41,313 | 79% | 83% | +$16,961 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,155 (vs do-nothing +$5,150) |
| $1030 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $21.00 | 5/5 | $45,000 | $44,229 | 79% | 83% | +$17,138 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-4,470 (vs do-nothing $-4,475) |
| $990 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $17.10 | 2/5 | $51,300 | $72,992 | 79% | 84% | +$27,678 | -$8,656 | 11.7% | $-10,565 (vs do-nothing $-10,570) |
| $1040 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $26.45 | 5/5 | $44,083 | $43,313 | 79% | 83% | +$17,457 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,255 (vs do-nothing +$3,250) |
| $1005 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $18.80 | 4/5 | $45,120 | $51,837 | 79% | 83% | +$20,252 | -$10,632 | 14.3% | $-14,455 (vs do-nothing $-14,460) |
| $1035 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $27.95 | 5/5 | $46,583 | $45,813 | 78% | 82% | +$18,375 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,505 (vs do-nothing +$1,500) |
| $1020 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $23.40 | 5/5 | $50,143 | $49,372 | 77% | 82% | +$18,153 | -$3,490 | 4.7% | $-8,270 (vs do-nothing $-8,275) |
| $1000 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $20.35 | 4/5 | $48,840 | $55,557 | 77% | 82% | +$21,771 | -$12,012 | 16.2% | $-15,835 (vs do-nothing $-15,840) |
| $985 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $18.60 | 2/5 | $55,800 | $77,492 | 77% | 83% | +$29,385 | -$9,356 | 12.6% | $-11,265 (vs do-nothing $-11,270) |
| $1030 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $28.85 | 5/5 | $48,083 | $47,313 | 77% | 82% | +$18,212 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-545 (vs do-nothing $-550) |
| $1025 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $29.40 | 5/5 | $49,000 | $48,229 | 76% | 81% | +$17,382 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,770 (vs do-nothing $-2,775) |
| $995 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $21.40 | 4/5 | $51,360 | $58,077 | 76% | 82% | +$21,919 | -$13,592 | 18.3% | $-17,415 (vs do-nothing $-17,420) |
| $980 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $20.05 | 2/5 | $60,150 | $81,842 | 76% | 82% | +$30,665 | -$10,066 | 13.5% | $-11,975 (vs do-nothing $-11,980) |
| $1010 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $26.00 | 4/5 | $44,571 | $51,288 | 75% | 81% | +$15,306 | -$5,752 | 7.7% | $-9,575 (vs do-nothing $-9,580) |
| $990 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $22.70 | 4/5 | $54,480 | $61,197 | 75% | 81% | +$22,485 | -$15,072 | 20.3% | $-18,895 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) |
| $1015 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $32.10 | 4/5 | $42,800 | $49,517 | 74% | 80% | +$14,502 | -$1,312 | 1.8% | $-5,135 (vs do-nothing $-5,140) |
| $975 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $21.60 | 2/5 | $64,800 | $86,492 | 74% | 81% | +$31,952 | -$10,756 | 14.5% | $-12,665 (vs do-nothing $-12,670) |
| $985 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $24.20 | 3/5 | $43,560 | $57,764 | 73% | 80% | +$17,505 | -$12,354 | 16.6% | $-15,220 (vs do-nothing $-15,225) |
| $1010 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $34.30 | 4/5 | $45,733 | $52,450 | 73% | 79% | +$15,824 | -$2,432 | 3.3% | $-6,255 (vs do-nothing $-6,260) |
| $1000 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $28.40 | 4/5 | $48,686 | $55,402 | 73% | 79% | +$15,377 | -$8,792 | 11.8% | $-12,615 (vs do-nothing $-12,620) |
| $1015 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $34.35 | 5/5 | $42,938 | $42,167 | 72% | 78% | +$8,864 | -$515 | 0.7% | $-5,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,300) |
| $1025 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $44.65 | 5/5 | $41,859 | $41,089 | 72% | 79% | +$12,018 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,855 (vs do-nothing +$4,850) |
| $1005 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $35.80 | 4/5 | $47,733 | $54,450 | 72% | 79% | +$16,137 | -$3,832 | 5.2% | $-7,655 (vs do-nothing $-7,660) |
| $970 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $23.30 | 2/5 | $69,900 | $91,592 | 72% | 80% | +$33,383 | -$11,416 | 15.4% | $-13,325 (vs do-nothing $-13,330) |
| $1015 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $40.30 | 5/5 | $43,179 | $42,408 | 72% | 79% | +$12,256 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,320 (vs do-nothing $-2,325) |
| $995 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $30.05 | 4/5 | $51,514 | $58,231 | 72% | 79% | +$16,042 | -$10,132 | 13.6% | $-13,955 (vs do-nothing $-13,960) |
| $1022.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $45.35 | 5/5 | $42,516 | $41,745 | 72% | 79% | +$12,058 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,955 (vs do-nothing +$3,950) |
| $980 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $25.75 | 3/5 | $46,350 | $60,554 | 72% | 79% | +$18,086 | -$13,389 | 18.0% | $-16,255 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $1020 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $47.50 | 5/5 | $44,531 | $43,760 | 72% | 79% | +$13,447 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,780 (vs do-nothing +$3,775) |
| $1010 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $35.90 | 5/5 | $44,875 | $44,104 | 72% | 78% | +$9,200 | -$2,240 | 3.0% | $-7,020 (vs do-nothing $-7,025) |
| $1005 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $37.50 | 5/5 | $46,875 | $46,104 | 71% | 78% | +$13,024 | -$3,940 | 5.3% | $-8,720 (vs do-nothing $-8,725) |
| $1017.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $46.55 | 5/5 | $43,641 | $42,870 | 71% | 78% | +$11,918 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,055 (vs do-nothing +$2,050) |
| $1010 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $41.95 | 5/5 | $44,946 | $44,176 | 71% | 78% | +$12,588 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-3,995 (vs do-nothing $-4,000) |
| $990 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $33.15 | 3/5 | $42,621 | $56,826 | 71% | 79% | +$14,321 | -$8,169 | 11.0% | $-11,035 (vs do-nothing $-11,040) |
| $1015 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $47.65 | 5/5 | $44,672 | $43,901 | 71% | 78% | +$12,300 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,355 (vs do-nothing +$1,350) |
| $1012.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $48.50 | 5/5 | $45,469 | $44,698 | 70% | 78% | +$12,437 | -$0 | 0.0% | $530 (vs do-nothing +$525) |
| $1000 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $39.15 | 5/5 | $48,938 | $48,167 | 70% | 78% | +$13,385 | -$5,615 | 7.6% | $-10,395 (vs do-nothing $-10,400) |
| $975 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $26.65 | 3/5 | $47,970 | $62,174 | 70% | 78% | +$17,339 | -$14,619 | 19.7% | $-17,485 (vs do-nothing $-17,490) |
| $1005 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $43.55 | 5/5 | $46,661 | $45,890 | 70% | 78% | +$12,806 | -$915 | 1.2% | $-5,695 (vs do-nothing $-5,700) |
| $995 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $38.75 | 4/5 | $51,667 | $58,383 | 70% | 78% | +$16,461 | -$6,652 | 9.0% | $-10,475 (vs do-nothing $-10,480) |
| $965 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $25.15 | 2/5 | $75,450 | $97,142 | 70% | 79% | +$34,943 | -$12,046 | 16.2% | $-13,955 (vs do-nothing $-13,960) |
| $1010 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $49.30 | 5/5 | $46,219 | $45,448 | 70% | 78% | +$12,515 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-320 (vs do-nothing $-325) |
| $985 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $34.00 | 3/5 | $43,714 | $57,918 | 70% | 78% | +$13,643 | -$9,414 | 12.7% | $-12,280 (vs do-nothing $-12,285) |
| $1007.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $50.10 | 5/5 | $46,969 | $46,198 | 70% | 77% | +$12,583 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,170 (vs do-nothing $-1,175) |
| $995 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $40.85 | 5/5 | $51,062 | $50,292 | 69% | 77% | +$13,738 | -$7,265 | 9.8% | $-12,045 (vs do-nothing $-12,050) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.