FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $971.42

BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1032.16  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:25

MU-LC880 @ $971.42   UNDERWATER $57.18 (5.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1032.16  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)
SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$419,300(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref$76,104/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$589/mo
Unrealized P&L$-40,583fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$38,052/mo
HEDGE COVER
$589/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$76,104/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300
ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $419,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1032.16 (probe: $1030C 14d) still earns $51,429/mo (68% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$9,776
Hole (after banked)
$30,806
was $40,583 · 24% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$1,049.16 → $1,032.16
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 26 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,219.06 (+25%) · daily UBB $1,220.31 · 1-wk expected move ±$131 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $1075 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($38,052/mo); it brings $38,786/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1010/7d for $76,393/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1270/7d (97% survival, $900/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-40,833 and cuts bleed by $589/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $1075, 79% survival, $38,786/mo (E[net] $8,868/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d5 × $107579%$38,786$8,868

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $8,868/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1075 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $38,786/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1110 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $12,536/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1110 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.
MU  spot $971.42 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $127017 Jul7d30.7%97%6%$210$900-$37,886$0
Sell 1 × $1270 30.7% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.36 mid)
= $210 credit for the 7d cycle → $900/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1270)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $1272.36)
97%
EV / mo
+$580
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median  ·  97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without)  ·  ~0.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,201
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
2%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,748
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,389 @ 77% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $70.09/sh now → $49.58 mid-life (likely $31.52–$71.89)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.48/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 75 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $1,308 (overshoots $38.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,27020 Jul 20266d left+$2.33/sh+$233
cycle +$443
[+$317…+$1,386] · 85% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$32,759 SAFE
cap gain +$73,341
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,33931 Jul 202618d left+$12.51/sh+$1,251
cycle +$1,461
[+$831…+$2,787] · 85% credit
73%
surv 65%
+$42,144 SAFE
cap gain +$82,727
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,37431 Jul 202618d left+$2.68/sh+$268
cycle +$478
[-$329…+$1,728] · 71% credit
76%
surv 70%
+$45,431 SAFE
cap gain +$86,014
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,38931 Jul 202618d left-$1.87/sh-$187
cycle +$23
[-$899…+$1,270] · 56% credit
77%
surv 72%
+$46,806 SAFE
cap gain +$87,389
budget: banked $210 debit $187 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $7,953/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$900/mo
vs 50% target ($38,052/mo)-98%
vs normal income ($76,104/mo)1% covered
Net income (after hedge)$39,431/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1270 is at/above CC-SS $1032.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-8,143
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,272.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,257.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,257-1,272.36
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,272.36
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,270.00 (2.3σ)$210$32,526+$73,109+$20,950
+2.5%$1,301.75 (2.5σ)$-2,965$33,225+$73,807+$20,950
+5%$1,333.50 (2.8σ)$-6,140$33,923+$74,506+$20,950
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1032.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,583
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,706
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1270): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$12,176
Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,300 (+$43,882 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,044, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $115017 Jul7d18.4%90%20%$3,900$16,714-$22,071$0
Sell 5 × $1150 18.4% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $8.20 mid)
= $3,900 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,714/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1150)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1158.20)
91%
EV / mo
+$7,882
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without)  ·  ~0.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,664
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$18,548
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,294 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $63.47/sh now → $44.90 mid-life (likely $39.56–$69.58)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.10/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 398 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,185 (overshoots $35.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,15020 Jul 20266d left+$4.98/sh+$2,488
cycle +$6,388
[+$1,212…+$5,935] · 88% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$59,024 SAFE
cap gain +$99,607
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,21931 Jul 202618d left+$13.80/sh+$6,898
cycle +$10,798
[+$2,893…+$10,356] · 87% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$99,233 SAFE
cap gain +$139,815
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,15420 Jul 20266d left+$1.89/sh+$945
cycle +$4,845
[-$842…+$4,088] · 65% credit
67%
surv 53%
+$59,350 SAFE
cap gain +$99,933
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,26431 Jul 202618d left+$1.44/sh+$720
cycle +$4,620
[-$4,614…+$3,770] · 48% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$116,545 SAFE
cap gain +$157,128
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,29431 Jul 202618d left-$6.86/sh-$3,429
cycle +$471
[-$9,756…-$670] · 22% credit
80%
surv 76%
+$128,056 SAFE
cap gain +$168,639
budget: banked $3,900 debit $3,429 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$471 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $31,700/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$16,714/mo
vs 50% target ($38,052/mo)-56%
vs normal income ($76,104/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$16,125/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1150 is at/above CC-SS $1032.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,783
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.95/sh (~25% of the $7.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,158.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,138.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,138-1,158.20
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,158.20
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,150.00 (1.4σ)$3,900$56,536+$97,119+$47,600
+2.5%$1,178.75 (1.6σ)$-10,475$57,169+$97,751+$47,600
+5%$1,207.50 (1.8σ)$-24,850$57,801+$98,384+$47,600
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1032.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,583
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,706
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1150): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,877 (+$31,706 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,220, the opportunity cost of earning $16,714/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean5 × $111017 Jul7d14.3%85%31%$6,125$26,250-$12,536$0
Sell 5 × $1110 14.3% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.60 mid)
= $6,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $26,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1110)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $1122.60)
87%
EV / mo
+$9,982
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median  ·  88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without)  ·  ~1.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,988
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
23%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,542
Free roll-up
+$20/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,279 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $61.26/sh now → $43.33 mid-life (likely $40.73–$68.26)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $12.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.08/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 680 simulated challenges: the $1,110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,143 (overshoots $33.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,11020 Jul 20266d left+$5.73/sh+$2,863
cycle +$8,988
[+$1,238…+$5,064] · 89% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$40,744 SAFE
cap gain +$81,327
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,17931 Jul 202618d left+$14.02/sh+$7,009
cycle +$13,134
[+$2,593…+$9,781] · 86% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$80,689 SAFE
cap gain +$121,271
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,11920 Jul 20266d left+$0.28/sh+$141
cycle +$6,266
[-$2,250…+$2,164] · 45% credit
68%
surv 55%
+$42,501 SAFE
cap gain +$83,084
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,22931 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$34
cycle +$6,159
[-$5,838…+$2,147] · 35% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$99,814 SAFE
cap gain +$140,396
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,27931 Jul 202618d left-$11.14/sh-$5,572
cycle +$553
[-$12,697…-$4,193] · 11% credit
82%
surv 79%
+$120,308 SAFE
cap gain +$160,891
budget: banked $6,125 debit $5,572 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$553 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $26,826/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$26,250/mo
vs 50% target ($38,052/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($76,104/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$25,661/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1110 is at/above CC-SS $1032.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,758
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.06/sh (~25% of the $12.25 collected) or spot ≥ $1,122.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,098.90Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,099-1,122.60
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,122.60
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,110.00 (1.1σ)$6,125$37,881+$78,464+$29,825
+2.5%$1,137.75 (1.3σ)$-7,750$38,492+$79,074+$29,825
+5%$1,165.50 (1.5σ)$-21,625$39,102+$79,685+$29,825
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1032.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,583
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,706
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1110): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,877 (+$31,706 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,220, the opportunity cost of earning $26,250/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $107517 Jul7d10.7%79%33%$9,050$38,786$0
Sell 5 × $1075 10.7% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.60 mid)
= $9,050 credit for the 7d cycle → $38,786/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1075)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $1093.60)
83%
EV / mo
+$12,220
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median  ·  90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without)  ·  ~2.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,991
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$11,934
Free roll-up
+$20/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,284 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $59.33/sh now → $41.97 mid-life (likely $43.36–$67.30)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $18.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.87/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 998 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,106 (overshoots $30.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,07520 Jul 20266d left+$6.33/sh+$3,164
cycle +$12,214
[+$929…+$4,498] · 89% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$25,700 SAFE
cap gain +$66,283
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,14431 Jul 202618d left+$14.13/sh+$7,064
cycle +$16,114
[+$2,091…+$7,837] · 86% credit
74%
surv 66%
+$65,399 SAFE
cap gain +$105,981
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,08420 Jul 20266d left+$0.92/sh+$461
cycle +$9,511
[-$2,426…+$1,218] · 38% credit
68%
surv 55%
+$27,476 SAFE
cap gain +$68,058
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,19431 Jul 202618d left+$0.29/sh+$146
cycle +$9,196
[-$5,966…+$432] · 28% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$84,581 SAFE
cap gain +$125,163
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28431 Jul 202618d left-$17.96/sh-$8,978
cycle +$72
[-$17,391…-$9,303] · 2% credit
85%
surv 83%
+$122,437 SAFE
cap gain +$163,020
budget: banked $9,050 debit $8,978 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $20,011/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$38,786/mo
vs 50% target ($38,052/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($76,104/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$38,196/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1075 is at/above CC-SS $1032.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,833
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.53/sh (~25% of the $18.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,093.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,075)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,064.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,064-1,093.60
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,093.60
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,075.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$9,050$22,536+$63,119+$15,250
+2.5%$1,101.88 (≤1σ, normal week)$-4,387$23,128+$63,710+$15,250
+5%$1,128.75 (1.2σ)$-17,825$23,719+$64,301+$15,250
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1032.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,583
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,706
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1075): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,877 (+$31,706 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,220, the opportunity cost of earning $38,786/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $101017 Jul7d4.0%64%76%$17,825$76,393+$37,607$0
Sell 5 × $1010 4.0% OTM over spot $971.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $36.52 mid)
= $17,825 credit for the 7d cycle → $76,393/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1010)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays ≤ $1046.53)
73%
EV / mo
+$14,768
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.2 mo)  ·  94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without)  ·  ~3.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $17,805
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
59%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,890
Free roll-up
+$32/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,289 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $55.74/sh now → $39.43 mid-life (likely $50.55–$72.39)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $35.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.78/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,775 simulated challenges: the $1,010 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,042 (overshoots $31.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,01020 Jul 20266d left+$7.31/sh+$3,655
cycle +$21,480
[+$784…+$2,835] · 87% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$1,036 SAFE
cap gain +$41,619
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,07931 Jul 202618d left+$14.13/sh+$7,064
cycle +$24,889
[+$497…+$4,756] · 78% credit
74%
surv 66%
+$40,244 SAFE
cap gain +$80,826
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,02420 Jul 20266d left+$0.29/sh+$144
cycle +$17,969
[-$3,691…-$1,247] · 14% credit
69%
surv 57%
+$4,614 SAFE
cap gain +$45,196
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,12931 Jul 202618d left+$0.52/sh+$262
cycle +$18,087
[-$7,840…-$2,556] · 12% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$59,542 SAFE
cap gain +$100,125
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28931 Jul 202618d left-$25.36/sh-$12,682
cycle +$5,143
[-$24,986…-$16,904]
90%
surv 89%
+$130,118 SAFE
cap gain +$170,701
budget: banked $17,825 debit $12,682 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,143 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,723/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$76,393/mo
vs 50% target ($38,052/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($76,104/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$75,804/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1010 is at/above CC-SS $1032.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-41,020
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.91/sh (~25% of the $35.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,046.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,010)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $999.90Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,000-1,046.53
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,046.53
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,010.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$17,825$-2,619+$37,964+$1,525
+2.5%$1,035.25 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,200$-2,063+$38,519-$8,475
+5%$1,060.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$-7,425$-1,508+$39,075-$8,475
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1032.16, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,583
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,706
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1010): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,877 (+$31,706 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6,344 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,220, the opportunity cost of earning $76,393/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (138 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 138 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$31,706 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $6,344

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10555d15 Jul 2026$13.205/5$39,600$39,01180%83%+$12,964-$00.0%$-2,277 (vs do-nothing $-8,620)
$10757d17 Jul 2026$18.105/5$38,786$38,19679%83%+$12,220-$00.0%$173 (vs do-nothing $-6,170)
$10505d15 Jul 2026$14.255/5$42,750$42,16178%82%+$13,609-$00.0%$-1,752 (vs do-nothing $-8,095)
$10707d17 Jul 2026$19.155/5$41,036$40,44678%82%+$12,592-$00.0%$698 (vs do-nothing $-5,645)
$10657d17 Jul 2026$20.355/5$43,607$43,01877%81%+$13,167-$00.0%$1,298 (vs do-nothing $-5,045)
$10455d15 Jul 2026$15.205/5$45,600$45,01177%81%+$13,745-$00.0%$-1,277 (vs do-nothing $-7,620)
$10607d17 Jul 2026$21.355/5$45,750$45,16176%81%+$13,192-$00.0%$1,798 (vs do-nothing $-4,545)
$10405d15 Jul 2026$16.554/5$39,720$48,91176%80%+$11,886-$00.0%$788 (vs do-nothing $-5,556)
$10557d17 Jul 2026$22.654/5$38,829$48,01975%80%+$10,985-$00.0%$3,228 (vs do-nothing $-3,116)
$10355d15 Jul 2026$17.704/5$42,480$51,67174%79%+$12,106-$00.0%$1,248 (vs do-nothing $-5,096)
$10507d17 Jul 2026$23.854/5$40,886$50,07674%79%+$11,139-$00.0%$3,708 (vs do-nothing $-2,636)
$10305d15 Jul 2026$19.004/5$45,600$54,79173%78%+$12,487-$00.0%$904 (vs do-nothing $-5,440)
$10457d17 Jul 2026$25.054/5$42,943$52,13473%78%+$11,183-$00.0%$4,188 (vs do-nothing $-2,156)
Show 125 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 125.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$107014d24 Jul 2026$35.855/5$38,411$37,82173%78%+$8,221-$00.0%$9,048 (vs do-nothing +$2,705)
$106012d22 Jul 2026$31.155/5$38,938$38,34873%79%+$8,547-$00.0%$6,698 (vs do-nothing +$355)
$105010d20 Jul 2026$27.205/5$40,800$40,21172%78%+$8,765-$00.0%$4,723 (vs do-nothing $-1,620)
$106514d24 Jul 2026$37.405/5$40,071$39,48272%78%+$8,521-$00.0%$9,823 (vs do-nothing +$3,480)
$105512d22 Jul 2026$32.155/5$40,188$39,59872%78%+$8,228-$00.0%$7,198 (vs do-nothing +$855)
$10407d17 Jul 2026$26.454/5$45,343$54,53472%78%+$11,454-$00.0%$4,748 (vs do-nothing $-1,596)
$10255d15 Jul 2026$20.404/5$48,960$58,15171%78%+$12,897-$00.0%$-536 (vs do-nothing $-6,880)
$104510d20 Jul 2026$27.755/5$41,625$41,03671%78%+$7,625-$00.0%$4,998 (vs do-nothing $-1,345)
$106014d24 Jul 2026$38.855/5$41,625$41,03671%77%+$8,661-$00.0%$10,548 (vs do-nothing +$4,205)
$105012d22 Jul 2026$33.555/5$41,938$41,34871%77%+$8,335-$00.0%$7,898 (vs do-nothing +$1,555)
$10357d17 Jul 2026$27.854/5$47,743$56,93470%77%+$11,607-$00.0%$5,308 (vs do-nothing $-1,036)
$104010d20 Jul 2026$29.205/5$43,800$43,21170%77%+$7,733-$00.0%$5,723 (vs do-nothing $-620)
$105514d24 Jul 2026$39.955/5$42,804$42,21470%77%+$8,371-$00.0%$11,098 (vs do-nothing +$4,755)
$10205d15 Jul 2026$21.853/5$39,330$58,30170%77%+$9,904-$00.0%$119 (vs do-nothing $-6,225)
$104512d22 Jul 2026$35.455/5$44,312$43,72370%77%+$8,989-$00.0%$8,848 (vs do-nothing +$2,505)
$105014d24 Jul 2026$41.905/5$44,893$44,30469%76%+$8,936-$00.0%$12,073 (vs do-nothing +$5,730)
$10307d17 Jul 2026$29.454/5$50,486$59,67669%76%+$11,979-$00.0%$5,084 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$103510d20 Jul 2026$32.154/5$38,580$47,77169%76%+$7,988-$00.0%$7,028 (vs do-nothing +$684)
$106021d31 Jul 2026$54.305/5$38,786$38,19669%76%+$8,054-$00.0%$18,273 (vs do-nothing +$11,930)
$104012d22 Jul 2026$37.355/5$46,688$46,09869%76%+$9,564-$00.0%$9,798 (vs do-nothing +$3,455)
$104514d24 Jul 2026$42.905/5$45,964$45,37568%76%+$8,425-$00.0%$12,573 (vs do-nothing +$6,230)
$105521d31 Jul 2026$55.755/5$39,821$39,23268%76%+$8,011-$00.0%$18,998 (vs do-nothing +$12,655)
$10155d15 Jul 2026$23.403/5$42,120$61,09168%76%+$10,143-$00.0%$-916 (vs do-nothing $-7,260)
$103010d20 Jul 2026$32.604/5$39,120$48,31168%75%+$6,703-$00.0%$6,344 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$10257d17 Jul 2026$30.853/5$39,664$58,63568%75%+$8,911-$00.0%$4,319 (vs do-nothing $-2,025)
$103512d22 Jul 2026$38.654/5$38,650$47,84168%76%+$7,446-$00.0%$9,628 (vs do-nothing +$3,284)
$104014d24 Jul 2026$45.054/5$38,614$47,80567%75%+$7,271-$00.0%$12,188 (vs do-nothing +$5,844)
$105021d31 Jul 2026$57.455/5$41,036$40,44667%75%+$8,114-$00.0%$19,848 (vs do-nothing +$13,505)
$102510d20 Jul 2026$33.704/5$40,440$49,63167%75%+$6,110-$00.0%$4,784 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$104521d31 Jul 2026$57.505/5$41,071$40,48267%75%+$7,006-$00.0%$19,873 (vs do-nothing +$13,530)
$103012d22 Jul 2026$40.704/5$40,700$49,89167%75%+$7,924-$00.0%$9,584 (vs do-nothing +$3,240)
$103514d24 Jul 2026$46.254/5$39,643$48,83467%75%+$6,940-$00.0%$12,668 (vs do-nothing +$6,324)
$10105d15 Jul 2026$25.003/5$45,000$63,97166%75%+$10,291-$00.0%$-1,936 (vs do-nothing $-8,280)
$104021d31 Jul 2026$59.205/5$42,286$41,69666%75%+$7,044-$00.0%$20,723 (vs do-nothing +$14,380)
$102512d22 Jul 2026$42.354/5$42,350$51,54166%75%+$7,933-$00.0%$8,244 (vs do-nothing +$1,900)
$103014d24 Jul 2026$48.004/5$41,143$50,33466%74%+$7,031-$00.0%$12,504 (vs do-nothing +$6,160)
$102010d20 Jul 2026$36.204/5$43,440$52,63165%74%+$7,105-$00.0%$3,784 (vs do-nothing $-2,560)
$10157d17 Jul 2026$34.203/5$43,971$62,94265%74%+$9,174-$00.0%$2,324 (vs do-nothing $-4,020)
$103521d31 Jul 2026$60.905/5$43,500$42,91165%74%+$7,047-$00.0%$21,573 (vs do-nothing +$15,230)
$10055d15 Jul 2026$26.803/5$48,240$67,21165%74%+$10,612-$1080.1%$-2,896 (vs do-nothing $-9,240)
$102514d24 Jul 2026$49.654/5$42,557$51,74865%74%+$6,987-$00.0%$11,164 (vs do-nothing +$4,820)
$102012d22 Jul 2026$44.004/5$44,000$53,19165%74%+$7,872-$00.0%$6,904 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$103021d31 Jul 2026$63.505/5$45,357$44,76864%74%+$7,660-$00.0%$21,794 (vs do-nothing +$15,450)
$101510d20 Jul 2026$37.654/5$45,180$54,37164%74%+$6,748-$00.0%$2,364 (vs do-nothing $-3,980)
$1022.5014d24 Jul 2026$50.304/5$43,114$52,30564%73%+$6,795-$00.0%$10,424 (vs do-nothing +$4,080)
$10107d17 Jul 2026$35.653/5$45,836$64,80664%73%+$8,861-$00.0%$1,259 (vs do-nothing $-5,085)
$102014d24 Jul 2026$52.154/5$44,700$53,89164%73%+$7,620-$00.0%$10,164 (vs do-nothing +$3,820)
$102521d31 Jul 2026$65.155/5$46,536$45,94664%73%+$7,558-$00.0%$20,119 (vs do-nothing +$13,775)
$101512d22 Jul 2026$45.904/5$45,900$55,09163%73%+$7,989-$00.0%$5,664 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$1017.5014d24 Jul 2026$51.854/5$44,443$53,63463%73%+$6,589-$00.0%$9,044 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$101010d20 Jul 2026$38.854/5$46,620$55,81163%73%+$5,996-$00.0%$844 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)
$10005d15 Jul 2026$28.603/5$51,480$70,45163%73%+$10,739-$1,0681.4%$-3,856 (vs do-nothing $-10,200)
$102021d31 Jul 2026$67.154/5$38,371$47,56263%73%+$6,137-$00.0%$16,164 (vs do-nothing +$9,820)
$101514d24 Jul 2026$53.304/5$45,686$54,87663%73%+$7,045-$00.0%$8,624 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$10057d17 Jul 2026$37.353/5$48,021$66,99262%72%+$8,763-$00.0%$269 (vs do-nothing $-6,075)
$1012.5014d24 Jul 2026$53.404/5$45,771$54,96262%72%+$6,331-$00.0%$7,664 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)
$101012d22 Jul 2026$46.604/5$46,600$55,79162%72%+$4,659-$00.0%$3,944 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$101521d31 Jul 2026$69.154/5$39,514$48,70562%73%+$6,199-$00.0%$14,964 (vs do-nothing +$8,620)
$100510d20 Jul 2026$41.054/5$49,260$58,45162%72%+$6,348-$00.0%$-276 (vs do-nothing $-6,620)
$101014d24 Jul 2026$54.654/5$46,843$56,03462%72%+$6,590-$00.0%$7,164 (vs do-nothing +$820)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:25