FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $982.58

BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1038.72  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:35

MU-LC880 @ $982.58   UNDERWATER $46.02 (4.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1038.72  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)
SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$419,300(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref$75,375/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$566/mo
Unrealized P&L$-38,220fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$37,687/mo
HEDGE COVER
$566/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$75,375/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $74,300
ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $419,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1038.72 (probe: $1040C 14d) still earns $52,661/mo (70% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$9,776
Hole (after banked)
$28,444
was $38,220 · 26% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$1,055.86 → $1,038.72
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 29 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,219.06 (+24%) · daily UBB $1,219.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$133 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $1090 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($37,687/mo); it brings $37,714/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1015/7d for $81,750/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1280/7d (97% survival, $849/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-38,445 and cuts bleed by $566/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $1090, 80% survival, $37,714/mo (E[net] $9,682/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d5 × $109080%$37,714$9,682

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $9,682/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1090 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $37,714/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $1125 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 20% → 15%) for $12,321/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $1125 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MU to stay flat-to-down near term.
MU  spot $982.58 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $128017 Jul7d30.3%97%6%$198$849-$36,866$0
Sell 1 × $1280 30.3% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.24 mid)
= $198 credit for the 7d cycle → $849/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1280)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $1282.24)
97%
EV / mo
+$529
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,503
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
3%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,774
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,392 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $70.28/sh now → $49.72 mid-life (likely $36.82–$67.57)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$47.74/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 96 simulated challenges: the $1,280 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $1,316 (overshoots $36.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,34731 Jul 202618d left+$14.63/sh+$1,463
cycle +$1,661
[+$1,117…+$2,890] · 93% credit
73%
surv 64%
+$41,100 SAFE
cap gain +$79,320
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,28020 Jul 20266d left+$0.85/sh+$85
cycle +$283
[+$139…+$1,228] · 81% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$31,530 SAFE
cap gain +$69,750
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,39231 Jul 202618d left+$0.64/sh+$64
cycle +$262
[-$517…+$1,341] · 59% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$45,168 SAFE
cap gain +$83,388
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$849/mo
vs 50% target ($37,687/mo)-98%
vs normal income ($75,375/mo)1% covered
Net income (after hedge)$43,363/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1280 is at/above CC-SS $1038.72: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-7,670
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $1,282.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,267.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,267-1,282.24
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,282.24
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,280.00 (2.2σ)$198$31,445+$69,665+$21,608
+2.5%$1,312.00 (2.5σ)$-3,002$32,133+$70,353+$21,608
+5%$1,344.00 (2.7σ)$-6,202$32,821+$71,041+$21,608
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1038.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,220
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,279
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1280): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$10,873
Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,931 (+$40,151 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,718, the opportunity cost of earning $849/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $116517 Jul7d18.6%90%20%$3,825$16,393-$21,321$0
Sell 5 × $1165 18.6% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $8.00 mid)
= $3,825 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,393/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1165)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1173.00)
91%
EV / mo
+$7,547
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,599
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$18,799
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,312 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $63.97/sh now → $45.25 mid-life (likely $36.25–$65.43)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.60/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $1,165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,198 (overshoots $32.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,23231 Jul 202618d left+$15.74/sh+$7,871
cycle +$11,696
[+$4,564…+$12,459] · 92% credit
73%
surv 65%
+$103,773 SAFE
cap gain +$141,993
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,16520 Jul 20266d left+$3.47/sh+$1,733
cycle +$5,558
[+$528…+$5,794] · 81% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$62,472 SAFE
cap gain +$100,692
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,16720 Jul 20266d left+$2.04/sh+$1,022
cycle +$4,847
[-$394…+$4,955] · 69% credit
67%
surv 53%
+$63,026 SAFE
cap gain +$101,246
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,28231 Jul 202618d left+$0.82/sh+$411
cycle +$4,236
[-$3,992…+$4,160] · 48% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$122,388 SAFE
cap gain +$160,608
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,31231 Jul 202618d left-$6.98/sh-$3,492
cycle +$333
[-$8,574…+$298] · 27% credit
80%
surv 76%
+$134,130 SAFE
cap gain +$172,350
budget: banked $3,825 debit $3,492 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$333 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $31,887/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$16,393/mo
vs 50% target ($37,687/mo)-57%
vs normal income ($75,375/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$15,827/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1165 is at/above CC-SS $1038.72: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-38,395
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.91/sh (~25% of the $7.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,173.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,153.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,153-1,173.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,173.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,165.00 (1.4σ)$3,825$60,740+$98,960+$53,375
+2.5%$1,194.12 (1.6σ)$-10,738$61,366+$99,586+$53,375
+5%$1,223.25 (1.8σ)$-25,300$61,992+$100,212+$53,375
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1038.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,220
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,279
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1165): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,941 (+$29,279 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,591, the opportunity cost of earning $16,393/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean5 × $112517 Jul7d14.5%85%30%$5,925$25,393-$12,321$0
Sell 5 × $1125 14.5% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $12.30 mid)
= $5,925 credit for the 7d cycle → $25,393/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1125)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $1137.30)
87%
EV / mo
+$9,508
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,718
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
22%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,922
Free roll-up
+$17/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,292 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $61.77/sh now → $43.69 mid-life (likely $41.68–$70.92)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.84/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 665 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,159 (overshoots $33.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,19231 Jul 202618d left+$15.93/sh+$7,965
cycle +$13,890
[+$3,305…+$10,740] · 90% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$85,106 SAFE
cap gain +$123,326
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,12520 Jul 20266d left+$4.25/sh+$2,125
cycle +$8,050
[+$55…+$4,401] · 76% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$44,105 SAFE
cap gain +$82,325
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,13220 Jul 20266d left+$0.40/sh+$201
cycle +$6,126
[-$2,368…+$2,334] · 42% credit
68%
surv 55%
+$46,053 SAFE
cap gain +$84,273
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,24231 Jul 202618d left+$1.14/sh+$571
cycle +$6,496
[-$5,564…+$2,517] · 35% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$103,788 SAFE
cap gain +$142,008
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,29231 Jul 202618d left-$10.85/sh-$5,425
cycle +$500
[-$13,305…-$3,931] · 10% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$123,867 SAFE
cap gain +$162,087
budget: banked $5,925 debit $5,425 (92% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$500 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $27,371/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$25,393/mo
vs 50% target ($37,687/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($75,375/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$24,827/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1125 is at/above CC-SS $1038.72: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-38,445
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.96/sh (~25% of the $11.85 collected) or spot ≥ $1,137.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,113.75Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,114-1,137.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,137.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,125.00 (1.1σ)$5,925$41,980+$80,200+$35,475
+2.5%$1,153.12 (1.3σ)$-8,138$42,584+$80,804+$35,475
+5%$1,181.25 (1.5σ)$-22,200$43,189+$81,409+$35,475
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1038.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,220
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,279
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1125): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,941 (+$29,279 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,591, the opportunity cost of earning $25,393/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $109017 Jul7d10.9%80%31%$8,800$37,714$0
Sell 5 × $1090 10.9% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $18.05 mid)
= $8,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $37,714/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1090)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $1108.05)
83%
EV / mo
+$11,736
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,668
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
31%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$12,368
Free roll-up
+$29/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,287 @ 84% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $59.85/sh now → $42.34 mid-life (likely $46.02–$70.59)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $17.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.74/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 927 simulated challenges: the $1,090 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,123 (overshoots $33.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,15731 Jul 202618d left+$16.01/sh+$8,005
cycle +$16,805
[+$2,696…+$8,603] · 89% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$69,769 SAFE
cap gain +$107,989
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,09020 Jul 20266d left+$4.88/sh+$2,442
cycle +$11,242
[-$68…+$3,762] · 74% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$29,044 SAFE
cap gain +$67,264
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,10220 Jul 20266d left+$0.07/sh+$36
cycle +$8,836
[-$2,944…+$624] · 32% credit
69%
surv 56%
+$33,118 SAFE
cap gain +$71,338
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,20731 Jul 202618d left+$1.35/sh+$674
cycle +$9,474
[-$6,100…+$560] · 28% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$88,513 SAFE
cap gain +$126,733
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28731 Jul 202618d left-$16.09/sh-$8,043
cycle +$757
[-$17,109…-$9,118] · 3% credit
84%
surv 82%
+$121,516 SAFE
cap gain +$159,736
budget: banked $8,800 debit $8,043 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$757 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $21,874/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$37,714/mo
vs 50% target ($37,687/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($75,375/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$37,149/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1090 is at/above CC-SS $1038.72: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-38,445
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.40/sh (~25% of the $17.60 collected) or spot ≥ $1,108.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,090)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,079.10Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,079-1,108.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,108.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,090.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$8,800$26,602+$64,822+$20,850
+2.5%$1,117.25 (1.0σ)$-4,825$27,188+$65,408+$20,850
+5%$1,144.50 (1.2σ)$-18,450$27,774+$65,994+$20,850
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1038.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,220
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,279
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1090): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,941 (+$29,279 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,591, the opportunity cost of earning $37,714/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $101517 Jul7d3.3%62%80%$19,075$81,750+$44,036$0
Sell 5 × $1015 3.3% OTM over spot $982.58 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $39.05 mid)
= $19,075 credit for the 7d cycle → $81,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1015)
62%
Breach risk
38%
POP (stays ≤ $1054.05)
72%
EV / mo
+$14,109
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.2 mo)  ·  96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~2.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $19,037
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
63%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$636
Free roll-up
+$41/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,302 @ 90% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $55.73/sh now → $39.42 mid-life (likely $51.73–$74.70)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $38.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,881 simulated challenges: the $1,015 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $1,048 (overshoots $32.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,08231 Jul 202618d left+$15.92/sh+$7,961
cycle +$27,036
[+$1,253…+$5,482] · 82% credit
74%
surv 66%
+$40,888 SAFE
cap gain +$79,108
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,01520 Jul 20266d left+$6.08/sh+$3,038
cycle +$22,113
[-$269…+$1,885] · 69% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$802 SAFE
cap gain +$39,022
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,03220 Jul 20266d left+$0.34/sh+$171
cycle +$19,246
[-$3,484…-$1,220] · 14% credit
70%
surv 58%
+$7,023 SAFE
cap gain +$45,243
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,13231 Jul 202618d left+$1.56/sh+$779
cycle +$19,854
[-$7,769…-$2,302] · 13% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$59,780 SAFE
cap gain +$98,000
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,30231 Jul 202618d left-$26.06/sh-$13,028
cycle +$6,047
[-$26,472…-$17,655]
90%
surv 90%
+$134,629 SAFE
cap gain +$172,849
budget: banked $19,075 debit $13,028 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6,047 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,139/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$81,750/mo
vs 50% target ($37,687/mo)+117%
vs normal income ($75,375/mo)108% covered
Net income (after hedge)$81,184/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1015 is at/above CC-SS $1038.72: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-38,670
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $9.54/sh (~25% of the $38.15 collected) or spot ≥ $1,054.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,015)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,219.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,004.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,005-1,054.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,054.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,015.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$19,075$-2,235+$35,985+$1,125
+2.5%$1,040.38 (≤1σ, normal week)$6,388$-1,690+$36,530-$6,375
+5%$1,065.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-6,300$-1,144+$37,076-$6,375
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1038.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,220
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,279
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1015): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,941 (+$29,279 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,591, the opportunity cost of earning $81,750/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (140 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 140 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$29,279 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $4,650

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10907d17 Jul 2026$17.605/5$37,714$37,14980%83%+$11,736-$00.0%$-141 (vs do-nothing $-4,791)
$10655d15 Jul 2026$13.555/5$40,650$40,08479%83%+$12,525-$00.0%$-2,166 (vs do-nothing $-6,816)
$10857d17 Jul 2026$18.755/5$40,179$39,61379%82%+$12,366-$00.0%$434 (vs do-nothing $-4,216)
$10605d15 Jul 2026$14.705/5$44,100$43,53478%82%+$13,365-$00.0%$-1,591 (vs do-nothing $-6,241)
$10807d17 Jul 2026$19.755/5$42,321$41,75678%82%+$12,562-$00.0%$934 (vs do-nothing $-3,716)
$10757d17 Jul 2026$20.955/5$44,893$44,32777%81%+$13,070-$00.0%$1,534 (vs do-nothing $-3,116)
$10555d15 Jul 2026$15.804/5$37,920$48,12477%81%+$11,074-$00.0%$97 (vs do-nothing $-4,553)
$10707d17 Jul 2026$22.054/5$37,800$48,00476%80%+$10,592-$00.0%$2,597 (vs do-nothing $-2,053)
$10505d15 Jul 2026$16.904/5$40,560$50,76475%80%+$11,275-$00.0%$537 (vs do-nothing $-4,113)
$10657d17 Jul 2026$23.254/5$39,857$50,06175%79%+$10,797-$00.0%$3,077 (vs do-nothing $-1,573)
$10455d15 Jul 2026$18.154/5$43,560$53,76474%79%+$11,646-$00.0%$1,037 (vs do-nothing $-3,613)
$10607d17 Jul 2026$24.604/5$42,171$52,37673%79%+$11,153-$00.0%$3,617 (vs do-nothing $-1,033)
$108514d24 Jul 2026$35.455/5$37,982$37,41673%79%+$8,225-$00.0%$8,784 (vs do-nothing +$4,134)
Show 127 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 127.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10557d17 Jul 2026$25.904/5$44,400$54,60472%78%+$11,312-$00.0%$4,137 (vs do-nothing $-513)
$10405d15 Jul 2026$19.454/5$46,680$56,88472%78%+$11,937-$00.0%$1,557 (vs do-nothing $-3,093)
$108014d24 Jul 2026$36.605/5$39,214$38,64972%78%+$8,124-$00.0%$9,359 (vs do-nothing +$4,709)
$107012d22 Jul 2026$30.505/5$38,125$37,55972%78%+$6,816-$00.0%$6,309 (vs do-nothing +$1,659)
$107514d24 Jul 2026$37.705/5$40,393$39,82771%78%+$7,919-$00.0%$9,909 (vs do-nothing +$5,259)
$106512d22 Jul 2026$31.955/5$39,938$39,37271%77%+$7,032-$00.0%$7,034 (vs do-nothing +$2,384)
$10507d17 Jul 2026$27.354/5$46,886$57,09071%77%+$11,614-$00.0%$4,717 (vs do-nothing +$67)
$106010d20 Jul 2026$26.155/5$39,225$38,65971%76%+$988-$00.0%$4,134 (vs do-nothing $-516)
$10355d15 Jul 2026$20.904/5$50,160$60,36471%77%+$12,378-$00.0%$650 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)
$107014d24 Jul 2026$39.355/5$42,161$41,59571%77%+$8,250-$00.0%$10,734 (vs do-nothing +$6,084)
$106012d22 Jul 2026$33.405/5$41,750$41,18470%77%+$7,173-$00.0%$7,759 (vs do-nothing +$3,109)
$10457d17 Jul 2026$28.704/5$49,200$59,40470%77%+$11,625-$00.0%$5,257 (vs do-nothing +$607)
$105510d20 Jul 2026$27.605/5$41,400$40,83470%76%+$1,115-$00.0%$4,859 (vs do-nothing +$209)
$106514d24 Jul 2026$41.205/5$44,143$43,57770%77%+$8,742-$00.0%$11,659 (vs do-nothing +$7,009)
$105512d22 Jul 2026$34.955/5$43,688$43,12269%76%+$7,362-$00.0%$8,534 (vs do-nothing +$3,884)
$107521d31 Jul 2026$53.605/5$38,286$37,72069%76%+$7,233-$00.0%$17,859 (vs do-nothing +$13,209)
$10305d15 Jul 2026$22.403/5$40,320$61,29469%76%+$9,539-$00.0%$600 (vs do-nothing $-4,050)
$106014d24 Jul 2026$42.655/5$45,696$45,13169%76%+$8,749-$00.0%$12,384 (vs do-nothing +$7,734)
$105010d20 Jul 2026$29.105/5$43,650$43,08469%75%+$1,231-$00.0%$5,609 (vs do-nothing +$959)
$10407d17 Jul 2026$30.153/5$38,764$59,73969%76%+$8,764-$00.0%$5,540 (vs do-nothing +$891)
$107021d31 Jul 2026$54.555/5$38,964$38,39968%76%+$6,859-$00.0%$18,334 (vs do-nothing +$13,684)
$105012d22 Jul 2026$36.555/5$45,688$45,12268%76%+$7,533-$00.0%$9,334 (vs do-nothing +$4,684)
$105514d24 Jul 2026$43.855/5$46,982$46,41668%76%+$8,432-$00.0%$12,984 (vs do-nothing +$8,334)
$104510d20 Jul 2026$33.004/5$39,600$49,80468%75%+$3,886-$00.0%$6,977 (vs do-nothing +$2,327)
$106521d31 Jul 2026$56.905/5$40,643$40,07768%75%+$7,456-$00.0%$19,509 (vs do-nothing +$14,859)
$10255d15 Jul 2026$23.953/5$43,110$64,08468%75%+$9,713-$00.0%$-435 (vs do-nothing $-5,085)
$10357d17 Jul 2026$31.803/5$40,886$61,86067%75%+$8,970-$00.0%$4,920 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$104512d22 Jul 2026$38.204/5$38,200$48,40467%75%+$6,149-$00.0%$9,057 (vs do-nothing +$4,407)
$105014d24 Jul 2026$45.854/5$39,300$49,50467%75%+$7,131-$00.0%$12,117 (vs do-nothing +$7,467)
$106021d31 Jul 2026$58.305/5$41,643$41,07767%75%+$7,344-$00.0%$20,209 (vs do-nothing +$15,559)
$104010d20 Jul 2026$32.654/5$39,180$49,38467%74%+$1,614-$00.0%$6,837 (vs do-nothing +$2,187)
$105521d31 Jul 2026$59.755/5$42,679$42,11366%75%+$7,238-$00.0%$20,934 (vs do-nothing +$16,284)
$104012d22 Jul 2026$39.904/5$39,900$50,10466%75%+$6,254-$00.0%$9,737 (vs do-nothing +$5,087)
$104514d24 Jul 2026$47.104/5$40,371$50,57666%74%+$6,827-$00.0%$12,617 (vs do-nothing +$7,967)
$10307d17 Jul 2026$33.453/5$43,007$63,98166%74%+$9,078-$00.0%$3,915 (vs do-nothing $-735)
$10205d15 Jul 2026$25.553/5$45,990$66,96466%74%+$9,800-$00.0%$-1,455 (vs do-nothing $-6,105)
$103510d20 Jul 2026$34.054/5$40,860$51,06466%73%+$1,368-$00.0%$5,910 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$105021d31 Jul 2026$61.405/5$43,857$43,29166%74%+$7,446-$00.0%$21,759 (vs do-nothing +$17,109)
$104014d24 Jul 2026$49.154/5$42,129$52,33365%74%+$7,161-$00.0%$13,437 (vs do-nothing +$8,787)
$103512d22 Jul 2026$41.654/5$41,650$51,85465%74%+$6,340-$00.0%$8,950 (vs do-nothing +$4,300)
$104521d31 Jul 2026$62.705/5$44,786$44,22065%74%+$7,157-$00.0%$22,409 (vs do-nothing +$17,759)
$10257d17 Jul 2026$34.903/5$44,871$65,84665%74%+$8,829-$00.0%$2,850 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$103010d20 Jul 2026$35.904/5$43,080$53,28465%73%+$1,585-$00.0%$4,650 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$103514d24 Jul 2026$50.254/5$43,071$53,27664%73%+$6,631-$00.0%$12,390 (vs do-nothing +$7,740)
$103012d22 Jul 2026$43.504/5$43,500$53,70464%73%+$6,456-$00.0%$7,690 (vs do-nothing +$3,040)
$10155d15 Jul 2026$27.203/5$48,960$69,93464%73%+$9,791-$00.0%$-2,460 (vs do-nothing $-7,110)
$104021d31 Jul 2026$64.555/5$46,107$45,54164%74%+$7,226-$00.0%$23,334 (vs do-nothing +$18,684)
$102510d20 Jul 2026$37.604/5$45,120$55,32464%73%+$5,889-$00.0%$3,330 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$103014d24 Jul 2026$52.104/5$44,657$54,86163%73%+$6,694-$00.0%$11,130 (vs do-nothing +$6,480)
$103521d31 Jul 2026$66.354/5$37,914$48,11963%73%+$5,780-$00.0%$18,830 (vs do-nothing +$14,180)
$102512d22 Jul 2026$45.354/5$45,350$55,55463%73%+$6,500-$00.0%$6,430 (vs do-nothing +$1,780)
$102010d20 Jul 2026$40.554/5$48,660$58,86463%73%+$7,231-$00.0%$2,510 (vs do-nothing $-2,140)
$103021d31 Jul 2026$68.254/5$39,000$49,20462%73%+$5,809-$00.0%$17,590 (vs do-nothing +$12,940)
$102514d24 Jul 2026$53.854/5$46,157$56,36162%72%+$6,621-$00.0%$9,830 (vs do-nothing +$5,180)
$10105d15 Jul 2026$28.503/5$51,300$72,27462%72%+$8,963-$660.1%$-3,570 (vs do-nothing $-8,220)
$10157d17 Jul 2026$38.153/5$49,050$70,02462%72%+$8,465-$00.0%$825 (vs do-nothing $-3,825)
$102012d22 Jul 2026$47.304/5$47,300$57,50462%72%+$6,572-$00.0%$5,210 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$1022.5014d24 Jul 2026$54.804/5$46,971$57,17662%72%+$6,629-$00.0%$9,210 (vs do-nothing +$4,560)
$102521d31 Jul 2026$70.154/5$40,086$50,29062%72%+$5,810-$00.0%$16,350 (vs do-nothing +$11,700)
$102014d24 Jul 2026$56.504/5$48,429$58,63361%72%+$7,268-$00.0%$8,890 (vs do-nothing +$4,240)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:35