FORTRESS FIGHT: MU-LC880 @ $976.84

BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1036.95  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 00:20

MU-LC880 @ $976.84   UNDERWATER $51.76 (5.0% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $1028.60  |  CC-SS: $1036.95  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)
SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$419,300(ND $148.60 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref$82,108/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$587/mo
Unrealized P&L$-40,300fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$41,054/mo
HEDGE COVER
$587/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$82,108/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $74,300
ML VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $419,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1036.95 (probe: $1035C 13d) still earns $55,615/mo (68% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$9,776
Hole (after banked)
$30,524
was $40,300 · 24% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$1,054.04 → $1,036.95
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 28 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,219.06 (+25%) · daily UBB $1,220.08 · 1-wk expected move ±$126 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $1080 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($41,054/mo); it brings $43,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $1015/6d for $87,625/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1220/6d (97% survival, $1,500/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1029, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-40,550 and cuts bleed by $587/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $1080, 81% survival, $43,000/mo (E[net] $12,702/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d5 × $108081%$43,000$12,702

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $12,702/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1080 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $43,000/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1115 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 19% → 12%) for $14,750/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
MU  spot $976.84 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $122017 Jul6d24.9%97%7%$300$1,500-$41,500$0
Sell 1 × $1220 24.9% OTM over spot $976.84 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.30 mid)
= $300 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1220)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $1223.30)
97%
EV / mo
+$1,089
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median  ·  96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,866
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,509
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,328 @ 78% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $67.99/sh now → $48.09 mid-life (likely $36.48–$66.77)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$45.09/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 113 simulated challenges: the $1,220 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $1,255 (overshoots $35.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,28831 Jul 202617d left+$14.57/sh+$1,457
cycle +$1,757
[+$899…+$2,647] · 88% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$36,622 SAFE
cap gain +$76,922
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,22020 Jul 20266d left+$1.51/sh+$151
cycle +$451
[+$38…+$1,128] · 76% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$27,001 SAFE
cap gain +$67,301
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,32831 Jul 202617d left+$1.53/sh+$153
cycle +$453
[-$667…+$1,268] · 61% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$40,198 SAFE
cap gain +$80,498
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($41,054/mo)-96%
vs normal income ($82,108/mo)2% covered
Net income (after hedge)$44,331/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1220 is at/above CC-SS $1036.95: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-8,090
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $1,223.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,207.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,208-1,223.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,223.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,220.00 (2.1σ)$300$26,850+$67,150+$15,320
+2.5%$1,250.50 (2.3σ)$-2,750$27,521+$67,821+$15,320
+5%$1,281.00 (2.6σ)$-5,800$28,192+$68,492+$15,320
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1036.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,300
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,376
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1220): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1030): +$13,141
Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,217 (+$44,517 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,285, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $113517 Jul6d16.2%90%20%$4,400$22,000-$21,000$0
Sell 5 × $1135 16.2% OTM over spot $976.84 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $9.28 mid)
= $4,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $22,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1135)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $1144.28)
91%
EV / mo
+$12,978
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median  ·  89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without)  ·  ~1.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,263
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$17,971
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,288 @ 82% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $63.25/sh now → $44.74 mid-life (likely $41.68–$67.29)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $8.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.94/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 392 simulated challenges: the $1,135 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,167 (overshoots $31.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,20331 Jul 202617d left+$15.32/sh+$7,660
cycle +$12,060
[+$3,949…+$10,692] · 88% credit
75%
surv 66%
+$89,899 SAFE
cap gain +$130,199
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,13520 Jul 20266d left+$3.43/sh+$1,714
cycle +$6,114
[-$20…+$4,766] · 75% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$48,374 SAFE
cap gain +$88,674
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,13820 Jul 20266d left+$1.22/sh+$611
cycle +$5,011
[-$1,383…+$3,449] · 63% credit
67%
surv 53%
+$48,920 SAFE
cap gain +$89,220
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,24831 Jul 202617d left+$0.83/sh+$413
cycle +$4,813
[-$4,698…+$2,776] · 47% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$106,142 SAFE
cap gain +$146,442
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,28831 Jul 202617d left-$8.79/sh-$4,393
cycle +$7
[-$10,928…-$2,413] · 15% credit
82%
surv 77%
+$122,216 SAFE
cap gain +$162,516
budget: banked $4,400 debit $4,393 (100% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $31,725/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$22,000/mo
vs 50% target ($41,054/mo)-46%
vs normal income ($82,108/mo)27% covered
Net income (after hedge)$21,413/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1135 is at/above CC-SS $1036.95: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,538
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.20/sh (~25% of the $8.80 collected) or spot ≥ $1,144.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,123.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,124-1,144.28
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,144.28
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,135.00 (1.4σ)$4,400$46,660+$86,960+$37,000
+2.5%$1,163.38 (1.6σ)$-9,788$47,284+$87,584+$37,000
+5%$1,191.75 (1.8σ)$-23,975$47,908+$88,208+$37,000
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1036.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,300
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,376
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1135): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,924 (+$31,376 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,426, the opportunity cost of earning $22,000/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $111517 Jul6d14.1%88%26%$5,650$28,250-$14,750$0
Sell 5 × $1115 14.1% OTM over spot $976.84 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $11.78 mid)
= $5,650 credit for the 6d cycle → $28,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1115)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $1126.78)
89%
EV / mo
+$15,551
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median  ·  91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without)  ·  ~1.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,533
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$16,326
Free roll-up
+$19/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,273 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $62.14/sh now → $43.95 mid-life (likely $40.77–$69.62)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.65/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 557 simulated challenges: the $1,115 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,147 (overshoots $31.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,18331 Jul 202617d left+$15.42/sh+$7,712
cycle +$13,362
[+$2,938…+$10,290] · 85% credit
75%
surv 66%
+$80,761 SAFE
cap gain +$121,061
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,11520 Jul 20266d left+$3.84/sh+$1,918
cycle +$7,568
[-$413…+$4,481] · 70% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$39,387 SAFE
cap gain +$79,687
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,12320 Jul 20266d left+$0.22/sh+$110
cycle +$5,760
[-$2,575…+$2,177] · 43% credit
69%
surv 55%
+$41,839 SAFE
cap gain +$82,139
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,23331 Jul 202617d left+$0.03/sh+$17
cycle +$5,667
[-$6,553…+$2,183] · 34% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$99,166 SAFE
cap gain +$139,466
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,27331 Jul 202617d left-$10.63/sh-$5,315
cycle +$335
[-$13,122…-$3,530] · 13% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$114,714 SAFE
cap gain +$155,014
budget: banked $5,650 debit $5,315 (94% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$335 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $29,402/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$28,250/mo
vs 50% target ($41,054/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($82,108/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$27,663/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1115 is at/above CC-SS $1036.95: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,538
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.83/sh (~25% of the $11.30 collected) or spot ≥ $1,126.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,103.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,104-1,126.78
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,126.78
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,115.00 (1.2σ)$5,650$37,470+$77,770+$28,250
+2.5%$1,142.88 (1.4σ)$-8,288$38,083+$78,383+$28,250
+5%$1,170.75 (1.7σ)$-22,225$38,696+$78,996+$28,250
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1036.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,300
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,376
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1115): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,924 (+$31,376 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,426, the opportunity cost of earning $28,250/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $108017 Jul6d10.6%81%28%$8,600$43,000$0
Sell 5 × $1080 10.6% OTM over spot $976.84 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $17.70 mid)
= $8,600 credit for the 6d cycle → $43,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1080)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $1097.70)
85%
EV / mo
+$20,277
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,522
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$12,686
Free roll-up
+$19/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$1,273 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $60.19/sh now → $42.57 mid-life (likely $42.79–$69.52)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $17.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.37/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 854 simulated challenges: the $1,080 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $1,111 (overshoots $30.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,14831 Jul 202617d left+$15.54/sh+$7,770
cycle +$16,370
[+$2,256…+$9,650] · 84% credit
75%
surv 66%
+$65,499 SAFE
cap gain +$105,799
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,08020 Jul 20266d left+$4.51/sh+$2,254
cycle +$10,854
[-$695…+$3,963] · 66% credit
67%
surv 52%
+$24,403 SAFE
cap gain +$64,703
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,08820 Jul 20266d left+$0.90/sh+$449
cycle +$9,049
[-$2,798…+$1,984] · 42% credit
69%
surv 55%
+$26,858 SAFE
cap gain +$67,158
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,19831 Jul 202617d left+$0.26/sh+$130
cycle +$8,730
[-$6,993…+$1,249] · 31% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$83,959 SAFE
cap gain +$124,259
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,27331 Jul 202617d left-$15.73/sh-$7,866
cycle +$734
[-$16,836…-$7,475] · 3% credit
85%
surv 82%
+$115,113 SAFE
cap gain +$155,413
budget: banked $8,600 debit $7,866 (91% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$734 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $23,683/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$43,000/mo
vs 50% target ($41,054/mo)+5%
vs normal income ($82,108/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$42,413/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1080 is at/above CC-SS $1036.95: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,550
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.30/sh (~25% of the $17.20 collected) or spot ≥ $1,097.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,080)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,069.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,069-1,097.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,097.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,080.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$8,600$22,150+$62,450+$13,700
+2.5%$1,107.00 (1.1σ)$-4,900$22,744+$63,044+$13,700
+5%$1,134.00 (1.3σ)$-18,400$23,338+$63,638+$13,700
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1036.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,300
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,376
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1080): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,924 (+$31,376 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,426, the opportunity cost of earning $43,000/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $101517 Jul6d3.9%65%74%$17,525$87,625+$44,625$0
Sell 5 × $1015 3.9% OTM over spot $976.84 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $36.40 mid)
= $17,525 credit for the 6d cycle → $87,625/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $1015)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays ≤ $1051.40)
75%
EV / mo
+$26,524
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.2 mo)  ·  95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~3.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $17,505
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
56%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,480
Free roll-up
+$19/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$1,218 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $56.57/sh now → $40.01 mid-life (likely $51.67–$75.41)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $35.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.96/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,670 simulated challenges: the $1,015 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $1,046 (overshoots $31.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1,08331 Jul 202617d left+$15.53/sh+$7,767
cycle +$25,292
[+$410…+$5,488] · 77% credit
75%
surv 67%
+$40,491 SAFE
cap gain +$80,791
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1,01520 Jul 20266d left+$5.62/sh+$2,809
cycle +$20,334
[-$1,124…+$1,713] · 55% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$46 NOT
cap gain +$40,254
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1,02320 Jul 20266d left+$2.02/sh+$1,009
cycle +$18,534
[-$3,306…-$344] · 22% credit
69%
surv 55%
+$2,413 SAFE
cap gain +$42,713
Max even-money escape in the band~$1,13831 Jul 202617d left+$0.12/sh+$59
cycle +$17,584
[-$9,377…-$2,978] · 12% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$61,493 SAFE
cap gain +$101,793
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1,21824 Jul 202610d left-$28.97/sh-$14,485
cycle +$3,040
[-$27,688…-$18,677]
90%
surv 89%
+$88,709 SAFE
cap gain +$129,009
budget: banked $17,525 debit $14,485 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,040 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $16,560/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$87,625/mo
vs 50% target ($41,054/mo)+113%
vs normal income ($82,108/mo)107% covered
Net income (after hedge)$87,038/mo
Downside budget
✓ $1015 is at/above CC-SS $1036.95: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($74,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($419,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-40,975
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $8.76/sh (~25% of the $35.05 collected) or spot ≥ $1,051.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,015)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,220.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,004.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$1,005-1,051.40
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $1,051.40
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$1,015.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$17,525$-2,855+$37,445-$2,375
+2.5%$1,040.38 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,837$-2,297+$38,003-$9,875
+5%$1,065.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-7,850$-1,739+$38,561-$9,875
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1036.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,300
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,376
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1015): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,924 (+$31,376 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,426, the opportunity cost of earning $87,625/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (135 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 135 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$31,376 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $7,502

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10654d15 Jul 2026$11.605/5$43,500$42,91384%87%+$23,950-$00.0%$-3,124 (vs do-nothing $-10,626)
$10604d15 Jul 2026$12.555/5$47,062$46,47683%86%+$25,143-$00.0%$-2,649 (vs do-nothing $-10,151)
$10554d15 Jul 2026$13.605/5$51,000$50,41381%85%+$26,460-$00.0%$-2,124 (vs do-nothing $-9,626)
$10806d17 Jul 2026$17.205/5$43,000$42,41381%85%+$20,277-$00.0%$-324 (vs do-nothing $-7,826)
$10756d17 Jul 2026$18.405/5$46,000$45,41380%84%+$21,362-$00.0%$276 (vs do-nothing $-7,226)
$10504d15 Jul 2026$14.704/5$44,100$54,36880%84%+$22,155-$00.0%$241 (vs do-nothing $-7,261)
$10706d17 Jul 2026$19.405/5$48,500$47,91379%83%+$21,804-$00.0%$776 (vs do-nothing $-6,726)
$10454d15 Jul 2026$15.854/5$47,550$57,81879%83%+$23,058-$00.0%$701 (vs do-nothing $-6,801)
$10656d17 Jul 2026$20.505/5$51,250$50,66378%83%+$22,345-$00.0%$1,326 (vs do-nothing $-6,176)
$10606d17 Jul 2026$21.704/5$43,400$53,66877%82%+$18,380-$00.0%$3,041 (vs do-nothing $-4,461)
$10404d15 Jul 2026$17.104/5$51,300$61,56877%82%+$24,013-$00.0%$1,201 (vs do-nothing $-6,301)
$10556d17 Jul 2026$23.054/5$46,100$56,36876%81%+$19,050-$00.0%$3,581 (vs do-nothing $-3,921)
$10354d15 Jul 2026$18.453/5$41,512$62,63575%81%+$18,750-$00.0%$2,597 (vs do-nothing $-4,905)
Show 122 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 122.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$10506d17 Jul 2026$24.404/5$48,800$59,06875%80%+$19,579-$00.0%$4,121 (vs do-nothing $-3,381)
$107513d24 Jul 2026$35.605/5$41,077$40,49074%80%+$13,224-$00.0%$8,876 (vs do-nothing +$1,374)
$10304d15 Jul 2026$19.853/5$44,662$65,78574%80%+$19,390-$00.0%$1,517 (vs do-nothing $-5,985)
$106511d22 Jul 2026$30.605/5$41,727$41,14074%79%+$12,731-$00.0%$6,376 (vs do-nothing $-1,126)
$10456d17 Jul 2026$25.754/5$51,500$61,76873%80%+$19,960-$00.0%$4,661 (vs do-nothing $-2,841)
$107013d24 Jul 2026$36.955/5$42,635$42,04873%79%+$13,385-$00.0%$9,551 (vs do-nothing +$2,049)
$10509d20 Jul 2026$25.405/5$42,333$41,74672%79%+$10,202-$00.0%$3,776 (vs do-nothing $-3,726)
$10406d17 Jul 2026$27.204/5$54,400$64,66872%79%+$20,389-$00.0%$5,241 (vs do-nothing $-2,261)
$106513d24 Jul 2026$38.605/5$44,538$43,95272%79%+$13,835-$00.0%$10,376 (vs do-nothing +$2,874)
$10254d15 Jul 2026$21.353/5$48,038$69,16072%79%+$20,031-$00.0%$467 (vs do-nothing $-7,035)
$105511d22 Jul 2026$31.505/5$42,955$42,36872%78%+$10,554-$00.0%$6,826 (vs do-nothing $-676)
$10459d20 Jul 2026$26.655/5$44,417$43,83071%78%+$10,117-$00.0%$4,401 (vs do-nothing $-3,101)
$106013d24 Jul 2026$40.155/5$46,327$45,74071%78%+$14,112-$00.0%$11,151 (vs do-nothing +$3,649)
$10356d17 Jul 2026$28.753/5$43,125$64,24771%78%+$15,643-$00.0%$5,687 (vs do-nothing $-1,815)
$105011d22 Jul 2026$33.055/5$45,068$44,48170%78%+$10,836-$00.0%$7,601 (vs do-nothing +$99)
$105513d24 Jul 2026$41.405/5$47,769$47,18270%78%+$13,983-$00.0%$11,776 (vs do-nothing +$4,274)
$10409d20 Jul 2026$30.005/5$50,000$49,41370%77%+$13,411-$00.0%$6,076 (vs do-nothing $-1,426)
$10204d15 Jul 2026$22.953/5$51,638$72,76070%78%+$20,659-$00.0%$-553 (vs do-nothing $-8,055)
$104511d22 Jul 2026$34.655/5$47,250$46,66369%77%+$11,096-$00.0%$8,401 (vs do-nothing +$899)
$10306d17 Jul 2026$30.353/5$45,525$66,64769%77%+$15,945-$00.0%$4,667 (vs do-nothing $-2,835)
$105013d24 Jul 2026$43.555/5$50,250$49,66369%77%+$14,830-$00.0%$12,851 (vs do-nothing +$5,349)
$10359d20 Jul 2026$29.905/5$49,833$49,24669%76%+$10,830-$00.0%$5,052 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)
$106020d31 Jul 2026$55.805/5$41,850$41,26369%77%+$11,245-$00.0%$18,976 (vs do-nothing +$11,474)
$104011d22 Jul 2026$36.305/5$49,500$48,91368%76%+$11,331-$00.0%$9,226 (vs do-nothing +$1,724)
$10154d15 Jul 2026$24.603/5$55,350$76,47268%77%+$21,150-$00.0%$-1,558 (vs do-nothing $-9,060)
$104513d24 Jul 2026$44.604/5$41,169$51,43768%76%+$10,109-$00.0%$12,201 (vs do-nothing +$4,699)
$105520d31 Jul 2026$57.355/5$43,012$42,42668%76%+$11,278-$00.0%$19,751 (vs do-nothing +$12,249)
$10256d17 Jul 2026$32.053/5$48,075$69,19768%76%+$16,268-$00.0%$3,677 (vs do-nothing $-3,825)
$10309d20 Jul 2026$31.604/5$42,133$52,40168%76%+$8,896-$00.0%$4,222 (vs do-nothing $-3,280)
$103511d22 Jul 2026$38.004/5$41,455$51,72267%76%+$9,231-$00.0%$8,782 (vs do-nothing +$1,280)
$104013d24 Jul 2026$46.504/5$42,923$53,19167%76%+$11,823-$00.0%$12,961 (vs do-nothing +$5,459)
$105020d31 Jul 2026$59.155/5$44,362$43,77667%76%+$11,464-$00.0%$20,651 (vs do-nothing +$13,149)
$104520d31 Jul 2026$60.705/5$45,525$44,93866%75%+$11,429-$00.0%$21,426 (vs do-nothing +$13,924)
$10259d20 Jul 2026$33.354/5$44,467$54,73466%75%+$9,089-$00.0%$2,922 (vs do-nothing $-4,580)
$103513d24 Jul 2026$48.204/5$44,492$54,76066%75%+$11,932-$00.0%$12,862 (vs do-nothing +$5,360)
$103011d22 Jul 2026$39.804/5$43,418$53,68666%75%+$9,429-$00.0%$7,502 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$10104d15 Jul 2026$26.403/5$59,400$80,52266%76%+$21,718-$1640.2%$-2,518 (vs do-nothing $-10,020)
$104020d31 Jul 2026$62.405/5$46,800$46,21365%75%+$11,472-$00.0%$22,276 (vs do-nothing +$14,774)
$103013d24 Jul 2026$49.754/5$45,923$56,19165%75%+$11,848-$00.0%$11,482 (vs do-nothing +$3,980)
$102511d22 Jul 2026$41.604/5$45,382$55,64965%74%+$9,546-$00.0%$6,222 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)
$10209d20 Jul 2026$35.204/5$46,933$57,20165%74%+$9,306-$00.0%$1,662 (vs do-nothing $-5,840)
$10156d17 Jul 2026$35.053/5$52,575$73,69765%75%+$15,915-$00.0%$1,577 (vs do-nothing $-5,925)
$103520d31 Jul 2026$63.755/5$47,812$47,22665%75%+$11,216-$00.0%$21,977 (vs do-nothing +$14,475)
$102513d24 Jul 2026$51.604/5$47,631$57,89864%74%+$11,988-$00.0%$10,222 (vs do-nothing +$2,720)
$10054d15 Jul 2026$27.552/5$41,325$73,30264%75%+$13,703-$8791.2%$52 (vs do-nothing $-7,450)
$102011d22 Jul 2026$43.504/5$47,455$57,72264%74%+$9,691-$00.0%$4,982 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$103020d31 Jul 2026$65.605/5$49,200$48,61364%74%+$9,708-$00.0%$20,402 (vs do-nothing +$12,900)
$1022.5013d24 Jul 2026$52.554/5$48,508$58,77564%74%+$12,060-$00.0%$9,602 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$10159d20 Jul 2026$37.104/5$49,467$59,73464%74%+$9,479-$00.0%$422 (vs do-nothing $-7,080)
$10106d17 Jul 2026$37.403/5$56,100$77,22263%74%+$16,805-$00.0%$782 (vs do-nothing $-6,720)
$102013d24 Jul 2026$53.904/5$49,754$60,02163%74%+$12,487-$00.0%$9,142 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$102520d31 Jul 2026$67.455/5$50,588$50,00163%73%+$9,721-$00.0%$18,827 (vs do-nothing +$11,325)
$101511d22 Jul 2026$45.454/5$49,582$59,84963%73%+$9,808-$00.0%$3,762 (vs do-nothing $-3,740)
$1017.5013d24 Jul 2026$54.454/5$50,262$60,52963%74%+$12,161-$00.0%$8,362 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$10109d20 Jul 2026$39.104/5$52,133$62,40162%73%+$9,673-$00.0%$-778 (vs do-nothing $-8,280)
$101513d24 Jul 2026$55.404/5$51,138$61,40662%73%+$12,191-$00.0%$7,742 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$102020d31 Jul 2026$69.354/5$41,610$51,87862%73%+$7,786-$00.0%$15,322 (vs do-nothing +$7,820)
$10004d15 Jul 2026$29.802/5$44,700$76,67762%74%+$14,389-$1,4291.9%$-498 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)
$10056d17 Jul 2026$38.953/5$58,425$79,54762%73%+$16,353-$00.0%$-253 (vs do-nothing $-7,755)
$101011d22 Jul 2026$47.454/5$51,764$62,03161%73%+$9,895-$00.0%$2,562 (vs do-nothing $-4,940)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 00:20